9 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE

Transcription

1 12 9 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON THE EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKET M ay 2012 F l o r e n c e

2 1 Modellng Dynamc PV Party n dfferent European Countres G. Lettner and H. Auer Abstract-- By ncreasng market shares and decreasng cost of photovoltac (PV) n recent years, the future pont of tme of compettveness of PV for the European energy system wll be a more nterestng queston. The compettveness of PV s referred to as "PV Party",.e. the "Levelzed Cost of Electrcty" (LCOE) of PV s compared accordng to market partcpants and market segment of the energy system wth the tradtonal cost factors. Through a dynamc economc analyss of the PV system over ts lfetme compared to a conventonal energy system, the "PV Party" s reached when the PVaddton of PV to the electrcty supply decreases the overall prce of the electrcty consumed. By senstvty analyss of the nfluence parameters of the LCOE of PV and developng of scenaros of future prce a wndow of tme or framework condtons for dfferent European countres for achevng the "PV Party" for dfferent market partcpants can be determned. Index Terms-- Dfferent Customer Groups, Dynamc Modelng, Levelzed Cost of Electrcty Generaton (LCOE), Load Profles, Photovoltacs (PV), PV Party, holesale/retal Electrcty Prce I. INTRODUCTION N recent years, market shares of electrcty generaton from Iphotovoltacs (PV) have been growng contnuously. As a result of that, sgnfcant cost decreases of the PV technology have been observed (technologcal learnng). Ths leads to an ncreased compettveness of PV generaton n comparson to remanng electrcty generaton technologes (both conventonal and renewable) when usng levelzed cost of electrcty generaton (LCOE) as a benchmark. In general, LCOE descrbe the economcs of a technology on an aggregated level (.e. annual bass) only. Due to the varable/ntermttent characterstcs of PV electrcty generaton (e.g. day/nght characterstcs), however, dfferent challenges have to be taken nto account when ntegratng the PV technology nto electrcty systems where electrcty The work was supported by the European Commsson and s part of the program Intellgent Energy Europe. Ttle: PV Party [IEE/10/307/SI ] Georg Lettner s wth Venna Unversty of Technology Insttute of Energy Systems and Electrcal Drves - Energy Economcs Group (EEG), Venna Unversty of Technology, Gusshausstrasse 25-29, 1040 Venna Austra (emal: lettner@eeg.tuwen.ac.at) Hans Auer s wth Venna Unversty of Technology Insttute of Energy Systems and Electrcal Drves - Energy Economcs Group (EEG), Venna Unversty of Technology, Gusshausstrasse 25-29, 1040 Venna Austra (emal: auer@eeg.tuwen.ac.at) generaton and demand have to be met smultaneously at each pont n tme. Nonetheless, the gradent of LCOE development of PV generaton s expected to open a wde range of dfferent applcatons of ths technology n dfferent market segments n the future. In ths context, the household customer always has been playng an mportant role when consderng the mplementaton of decentralzed PV technologes. And as a consequence of that, already n the past the retal electrcty prce (.e. the end-users electrcty bll/statement) always has been some comparatve parameters of the LCOE of PV generaton. Straghtforward, the term PV Grd Party has been establshed n recent years; n ts statc defnton the determnaton of the pont n tme n the future when the tradeoff of the retal electrcty prce and LCOE of PV generaton s reached (see e.g. [1]). Ths defnton, however, lacks twofold (see e.g. [2]): () there s no dynamc consderaton of the dynamc development of dfferent parameters, and () nothng s sad about the net present values (NPV) of the economcs of PV generaton when consderng dfferent revenue streams (e.g. self-consumpton (reduced electrcty purchases from the grd and therefore reduced electrcty bll) versus sellng nto the grd), on the one hand, and cost of PV generaton, on the other hand. In ths paper, dfferent nterpretatons of fully dynamc defntons of PV Party over the lfetme of PV generaton plants are modeled for dfferent customer groups (takng nto account dfferent characterstc load profles) and utltes n dfferent European countres. II. METHODOLOGY A. Defnton PV Party To determne the "PV Party", an economc cost comparson of a market partcpant wth PV and a market partcpant wthout PV s made. As a bass for ths economc cost comparson are the "Levelzed Cost of Electrcty" (LCOE). For systems that prmarly produce electrcty to be consumed elsewhere, the LCOE s compared wth the electrcty producton costs for the dfferent power generaton technologes. For a consumer, for example a household, the LCOE s comparable wth the retal electrcty prce. For the calculaton of future LCOE for PV technologes, a varety of dfferent boundary condtons and assumptons about the future development of several mportant parameters (e.g. specfc cost, effcency, etc.) s requred. To carry out the economc cost comparson, the development of future holesale-/retal-electrcty-prces and other technology

3 2 optons that affect the load profles of dfferent customer groups (e.g. ncrease ther self-consumpton through the mplementaton of addtonal storage technologes) must be consdered. Dynamc Grd Party PV generaton can be partally or completely replace the current consumpton. Ths s commonly referred to as "PV Grd Party" because the economc comparson wth the current retal electrcty prce (= generaton costs & grd costs & taxes) s made. The condtons for the compettveness of PV generaton, savngs on end-users electrcty bll by selfconsumpton and revenues through feedng PV generaton nto the grd. Dynamc holesale Prce Party PV generaton compensates few or no electrcty consumpton at all. In ths case, the PV generaton s competng wth the wholesale electrcty prce on the energy market. Dynamc Fuel Party PV generaton s n competton wth a specfc power generaton technology but cannot entrely replace t. For example, sland grds that rely on power generaton by desel engnes may replace some of the capacty wth PV but not all. Some of the desel generaton (or other generaton) needs to be retaned to cover the tmes when the ntermttent PV generaton s down. These three dfferent "PV Party" defntons can be appled manly to four dfferent market partcpants: Households < 5 kp Commercals < 100 kp Industres < 500 kp Utltes > 500 kp The 3 "PV Party" defntons are not for any of the above market partcpants relevant or useful. The "Grd Party" s relevant for rooftop nstalled or buldng-ntegrated PV systems for households, commercals and ndustres. Commercal or ndustral facltes wth low power consumpton and for power utltes, whch are operatng wth ground-mounted systems, the "holesale Prce Party" and n exceptonal cases (e.g. sland grd), the "Fuel Party" s decsve. In ndvdual cases, the "Fuel Party" s of nterest to households. B. Mathematcal Approach 1) Levelzed Cost of Electrcty for PV By calculatng the "Levelzed Cost of Electrcty" (LCOE) can be the specfc costs of a PV system n /p, whch are common n the PV ndustry, transform nto the usual specfc costs for the energy ndustry n /kh, see (1). LCOE CAPEX CAPEX + OPEX = = 1,2,..., N (1) EP = C crf for n : CAPEX = 0 n N (2) Invet > ( 1+ ACC) ( 1+ ACC) 1 = n n ACC crf (3) E D ACC = k E + k D ( 1 sc ) (4) E + D E + D LCOE Levelzed Costs of Electrcty per year n /kh CAPEX CAPtel Expendture per year n OPEX Operatonal Expendture per year n EP electrcal energy yeld per year n kh C Invest Investments n crf captal recovery factor ACC eghted Average Cost of Captal E equty n D debt n k E return of equty k D return of debt s C corporate tax rate N lfetme of the PV-System n deprecaton tme of the PV-System 2) Calculaton of annual cost of dfferent "PV Party" defntons Dependng of market partcpants and the applcaton of the correspondng "PV Party" defnton, there are dfferent approaches for calculatng to acheve the party of PV systems wth and wthout storage technologes. Dynamc Grd Party The dynamc "Grd Party" s the most complex of the 3 "PV Party" approaches. The specal load profle of the market partcpant and the specfc generaton profle of PV systems (day-nght characterstcs and dfference by rradance-wntersummer) three dfferent stuatons to be generated for the energy system of the prosumer (= producer and consumer): 1. External procurement from the grd (term 1 n (5)): Durng the nght there wll be no PV generaton, therefore must be gather the requred energy from the grd. However wth the use of storage technologes, the share of external procurement from the grd may be reduced or substtuted. The cost of external procurement s determned by the retal electrcty prce and the savngs from ther self-consumpton or storage of PV generaton. 2. Self-consumpton and storage (term 2 n (5)): By fluctuatng PV generaton durng a day, the external procurement from the grd can be replaced partally or completely by the PV generaton. If the PV generaton s hgher than the load, the surplus energy can be feed nto the grd (see tem 3) or be saved f a storage technology s avalable. The cost for ther self-consumpton wthout storage s determned by the LCOE of PV system and energetc selfconsumpton. If a storage technology used, the LCOE of PV system and the LCOE of the storage system should be consdered general, ths leads to overall hgher LCOE of PV and storage system. These hgher LCOE and the resultng changes n self-consumpton (addtonal reducton of the external procurement n the nght) then determne the costs 3. Feed nto the grd (term 3 n (5)):

4 3 The hgher the capacty of nstalled PV power system, the hgher s the maxmum of the PV generaton. If the PV generaton s hgher than the possble self-consumpton or storage potental, the surplus PV generaton s feed nto the grd, provded that t s also possble. By feedng nto the grd revenues can be gan, the feed amount of electrcal energy s compensated by a market prce. Market prces can be fxed feed-n tarffs, green premum tarffs or the "wholesale" prce. A reducton of the total cost of the energy system for the prosumer receves only, f the LCOE of PV system or rather the LCOE of PV and storage system s smaller than the acheved market prce. The net present values of annual cost of a market partcpant who had nstalled a PV system or alternatvely PV and storage system s descrbed n (5). NPVof C = pre tal, + LCOE + ( Demand Selfconsumpton & Storage ) Selfconsumpton & Storage + ( LCOE p ) Feedn (5) Market, NPVof C Net Present Value of the cost of the PV system per year n Demand annual electrcty demand n kh Selfconsumpton&Storage annual self-consumpton and storage of the PV generaton n kh Feedn feed nto the grd n kh P Retal, annual retal electrcty prce n p Market,I annual market prce of the feed nto the grd PV generaton n /kh The net present value of annual costs for market partcpants wthout a PV system are calculated from the annual retal electrcty prce and the annual consumpton, see (6) External Procurement Feed nto the Grd Selfconsumpton Summer Load Profle Summer PV-Generaton Fg. 1. Example of household electrcty profle relatve to the PV generaton n the summer ITHOUT storage technology Feed nto the Grd Storage Chargng Storage Dschargng Selfconsumpton Summer Load Profle Summer PV-Generaton Storage Operaton Fg. 2. Example of household electrcty profle relatve to the PV generaton n the summer ITH storage technology NPVof C = p Demand wthout Re tal, (6) Fg. 1, shows an example of the comparson of a typcal household load profle compared to a PV generaton profle for a summer day wthout addtonal storage technology. The nstallaton of a storage technology can be reduce or completely substtute the share of the external procurement from the grd on a summer day, see Fg. 2. Dependng on storage capacty, t may then come to a feed nto the grd of PV generaton or not. On wnter days, the PV generaton by the lower rradaton ntensty and the shorter hours of sunlght s correspondngly low, so only a small share of PV generaton can to be feed nto the grd, see Fg. 3. If a storage technology s used n the PV system, n the wnter days a low share of the external procurement can be reduced durng the nght by the PV generaton. The surplus of the PV generaton s not more feed nto the grd, but rather s saved n the storage technology, see Fg External Procurement Feed nto the Grd Selfconsumpton nter Load Profle nter PV-Generaton Fg. 3. Example of household electrcty profle relatve to the PV generaton n the wnter ITHOUT storage technology External Procurement Storage Dschargng Storage Chargng Selfconsumpton nter Load Profle nter PV-Generaton Storage Operaton Fg. 4. Example of household electrcty profle relatve to the PV generaton n the wnter ITH storage technology Dynamc holesale Prce Party hen lookng at the "holesale Prce Party" s the market prce, the LCOE of PV system and the correspondng PV generaton, the decsve parameters. If the market prce s

5 4 hgher than the LCOE of the PV system, can make revenues/profts. The market prce falls below the level of the LCOE of the PV system, losses are generated. The market prce could be a spot market prce, a hedged forward prce or somethng else. Schematc llustraton of the proft and loss areas of the PV generaton for summer and wnter are shown n Fg. 5 and Fg. 6. The net present value of annual costs for market partcpants wth a PV system are offerng on a market prce s descrbed n (7) and (8). NPVof C Re v = = CAPEX + OPEX Re v 8760 t = 1 Gen, t (7) ( p LCOE ) (8) Market,,( t) t = 0,15',30',45',1h,1h 15',..., 8760h Rev Gen I,t P Market,I(,t) annual revenues from the PV generaton on the electrcty market n 15 mnute PV generaton per year n Mh electrcty market prce (on spot market n 15 mnute) per year n /Mh man comparson parameter, but rather the current electrcty generaton cost of an exstng thermal power unt, that s the fuel cost. On the one hand, on summer days the surplus of the PV generaton wthout or nsuffcent storage s not used and s lost n the worst case, see Fg. 7. On the other hand, on wnter days the PV system, wth and wthout storage, cannot cover the load completely, hence the use of the exstng power unt s requred, see Fg. 8. An optmal sze of the PV system wth and wthout storage technology s therefore one of the most mportant prerequstes for achevng the "Fuel Party". The net present value of annual cost of the electrcty demand of a market partcpant wth a PV system on an sland (grd) are calculated as the share of generaton of the thermal power and the share of PV generaton and storage accordng to (9). pfuel, NPVof C = η el ( Demand Selfconsumpton & Storage ) + + LCOE Selfconsumpton & Storage (9) The net present value of annual cost of the electrcty needs for a market partcpant wthout a PV system are calculated wth the annual fuel cost and the annual demand, see (10). pfuel, NPVof Cwthout = Demand (10) η el Spotmarketprce PV-Generaton Proft Area Loss Area Spotprce LCOE-PV Summer PV-Generaton Fg. 5. Schematc llustraton of the proft and loss areas at the "holesale Prce Party" on a summer day Spotmarketpce PV-Generaton Lost of PV-Generaton Storage Chargng Storage Dschargng Selfconsumpton Summer Load Profle Summer PV-Generaton Storage Operaton Fg. 7. Schematc llustraton of the supportng load coverage of PV generaton on a stand-alone operaton on a summer day Proft Area Loss Area Spotprce LCOE-PV nter PV-Generaton Fg. 6. Schematc llustraton of the proft and loss areas at the "holesale Prce Party" on wnter day Dynamc Fuel Party The dynamc "Fuel Party" compares the requred fuel cost of an already exstng thermal power generaton unt (desel / ol, gas, bomass, etc.) wth and wthout an nstalled PV and / or storage system to cover the load n an sland (network) for operaton. Ths "PV Party" defnton s smlar to the "PV Grd Party", but not the current retal electrcty prce s the Thermal Power Generaton Storage Dschargng Storage Chargng Selfconsumpton nter Load Profle nter PV-Generaton Storage Operaton Fg. 8. Schematc llustraton of the supportng load coverage of PV generaton on a stand-alone operaton on a wnter day 3) Economc Trade-Off Approach To acheve the "PV Party" the annual net present value of costs for dfferent "PV Party" defntons over the lfetme of

6 5 the PV system are cumulated and afterwards an economc "trade off" crteron s used. Dynamc Grd Party The dynamc "Grd Party" s acheved, f the cumulatve annual net present values of the cost of a market partcpant wth a PV system, wth or wthout storage technology, that s less than the cumulatve annual net present values of the cost of a market partcpant wthout a PV system, see (11). N N NPVof C NPVof Cwthout (11) Dynamc holesale Prce Party To acheve the "holesale Prce Party" for a PV system, the cumulated annual net present values of the cost of a market partcpant s less than zero, see (12). Negatve cost means that are revenues/profts can be acheved and therefore the PV system s economcal. model s beng developed n the project "PV Party", funded by the Intellgent Energy Europe (IEE) Programmed of the European Commsson and emprcally scaled. Concrete results are expected n the next few months and wll be presented n future natonal and nternatonal conferences. Frst prelmnary results of the Grd Party n the household sector are shown n Fg. 9 and Fg. 10. It s shown the cumulated NPV of the costs from a household wth and wthout a PV-System. In the frst model smulaton the Grd Party s reached n 2016 wth a PV-System prce of 2358,- Euro and n the second smulaton n 2017 wth a PV-System prce of 2155,- Euro. The most mportant dfferences between the frst and the second smulaton are the system sze, the market prce for feed nto the grd and the annual ncrease of the retal prce. At a hgher market prce s a larger PV system sze economcal than wth a lower market prce. The economc effcency of the PV system depends trvally on the growth of future electrcty prces, whch clearly shows the two prelmnary smulatons. N NPVof 0 C PVSystem, (12) Dynamc Fuel Party As descrbed n Secton 2, the cost calculaton for a market partcpant for the "Fuel Party" s smlar to the "Grd Party". The economc "trade off" crteron s even dentcal, so (11) s also vald for the "Fuel Party". III. FUTURE SCENARIOS AND ANALYSIS In calculatng the LCOE have a varety of parameters (e.g. PV system prces, deprecaton tme, ACC, effcency, etc.) nfluence. To determne the future PV system prces and the effcency can be derved through experence curve of learnng rates from the past years. Other parameters such as amortzaton perod, ACC, fscal condtons, etc. by a Monte Carlo smulaton vary suffcently and ths results n a certan bandwdth of future LCOE of PV systems. By dfferent senstvty analyss under the ceters parbus clause the nfluence of dfferent parameters s shown. Future retal, wholesale and prmary energy prces wll be defned n dfferent scenaros, and thus also results n a certan bandwdth of prces. The cost and trade off analyss s done wth the edge and average values of the dfferent bandwdths of parameters. Fg. 9 Monte-Carlo_Smulaton 1: Prelmnary Result of Grd Party for a Household Austra. IV. RESULTS Due to the natural heterogenety of sun rradaton and artfcal heterogenety of markets n Europe, of dfferent electrcty prces and of PV system prces for varous European countres dfferent bandwdths of LCOE, of electrcty prces and of PV system prces are obtaned. By the bandwdth, defned by each scenaro and parameter analyss, the LCOE, the electrcty prces and PV system prces wll determne a possble wndow of tme or rather framework condtons can be acheved n varous European countres n whch the dfferent "PV Party" defntons. Ths dynamc Fg. 10 Monte-Carlo_Smulaton 2: Prelmnary Result of Grd Party for a Household n Austra.

7 6 V. REFERENCES [1] Breyer Ch., Gerlach A., Global Overvew on Grd-Party event dynamcs, Q-Cells SE, Btterfeld-olfen, 2011 [2] Solar Photovoltacs Competng n the energy sector Part 1, European Photovoltac Industry Assocaton (EPIA), [3] IEE project PV Party, VI. BIOGRAPHIES Georg Lettner was born n Braunau (Austra), on May 9, He s an electrcal engneer. Snce February 2009 he has been workng as a junor researcher at Venna Unversty of Technology, Energy Economcs Group (EEG). Hs major felds of research are grd and market ntegraton of DG/RES-E technologes and the development of talor-made smulaton software models. Hans Auer was born n Schmrn (Austra) on March 26, He s senor researcher at Venna Unversty of Technology, Insttute of Energy Systems and Electrcal Drves - Energy Economcs Group (EEG). He joned EEG n Hans man research nterests are electrcty market analyses n general and grd and market ntegraton polces of DG/RES-E technologes n ths context n partcular. In the last 16 years, Hans has been nvolved n many nternatonal and natonal projects n the renewable feld for a varety of dfferent clents. He has comprehensve teachng experence, a sgnfcant amount of energy conferences contrbutons worldwde and also authored around 40 peer revewed scentfc papers and book contrbutons.