Greg Goss Monireh Faramarzi. Shale Gas Water Forum- Calgary- Sept

Transcription

1 Analyzing Water Availability, Water Use And Water Forecasting In A Changing Climate Identifying Risks And Opportunities For The Hydraulic Fracturing Industry Greg Goss Monireh Faramarzi Shale Gas Water Forum- Calgary- Sept

2 Growing food and energy production requires more and more water (our GDP is is tied to it) Population forecasted to almost double by 2040 (mainly in the Edmonton-Calgary corridor) The climate and hydrological systems of Alberta are not static o The Challenge Basin dynamics respond in a non-linear fashion to changes in land cover and climate o What used to be a 100-year flood in the 1950s has become the 50- year flood in some regions The only way to assess potential future states is through data integration and use of physically-based models 2

3 CWN Water and Hydraulic Fracturing Program Launched in 2013 through Expression of Qualifications and Full Proposals with Expert Panel review Awarded $600,000 to 5 multidisciplinary teams representing 18 universities 20 partners, including First Nations, government, industry & NGO groups

4 Theme 2 Unconventional Wastewater Management: A comparative review and analysis of hydraulic fracturing wastewater management practices across four North American formations Lead researcher: Greg Goss, Professor, University of Alberta Dan Alessi- Encana Chair - Alberta Diana Allen- Simon- Fraser- Sustainability Joel Gehman- Alberta- Business

5 Major subtopics of our report Plays: Marcellus (NE US), Barnett (TX), Duvernay (AB), Montney (BC, AB) 1. Regulatory and policy regimes across jurisdictions (Allen, SFU) 2. Stakeholder concerns, public perception, and social license to operate (Gehman, U Alberta) 3. Wastewater handling, treatment, and reuse (Alessi, U Alberta) Publication date: October 06

6 Wastewater handling, treatment, and reuse Research approach: use oil and gas databases (GeoScout, AccuMap, FracFocus) and, insofar as possible, cross-reference data to identify information gaps Pilot regions: Duvernay Formation (Alberta), Montney Formation (Alberta, BC) Montney Duvernay

7 Location and water use of hydraulic fracturing (Nov 2011 Mar 2014) 4078 wells in Alberta 837 wells in British Columbia 25+ Olympic swimming pools of water Volumes of water in m 3 Goss, Alessi, Allen, Gehman, 2015

8 Water use by play Duvernay Montney Goss, Alessi, Gehman, Allen, 2015

9 Information we extracted from databases Number of wells < > Hydraulic fracturing stages per well Average # of fracturing stages Year 2014 Cumulative injected water (10 6 m 3 ) Year Goss, Alessi, Gehman, Allen, 2015

10 Database search gaps to address No guarantee any one database is complete Wastewater disposal data not readily available in databases used (may require further sources such as provincial / state databases) Source of water not well-known (difficult to differentiate between fresh, saline, and recycled water) Holistic overview of trends in wastewater geochemistry would be difficult at best: Partial organic chemistry of fracturing fluids in FracFocus In some cases detailed inorganic chemistry of flowback and produced waters in AccuMap, but many heterogeneities (type of frac, sampling times, shut ins, )

11 Climate Change and Climate Variability Currently seeing the variability that exists in our climate: e.g. common year droughts in past 1000 years that exceed current 2 year droughts Climate Change in Alberta expected to be 2-4 degrees C by /8/

12 The Clausius-Clapyron Relation Rudolf Clausius Benoit Clapeyron The water-holding capacity of the Earth s atmosphere increases by 7 per cent per degree Celsius Will result in significant changes in water availability- more floods, longer droughts 10/8/

13 Future Climate Change will significantly affect water cycle and water availability 10/8/

14 Availability Appreciating the difference is not the same as Need to prepare an adaptational response for future water availability scenarios Reliability 14

15 Project team Dr. Jon Sweetman Steering Committee Dr. Greg Goss University of Alberta Principal Investigator Dr. Monireh Faramarzi University of Alberta Research Associate; Lead Investigator Mr. Jason Brisbois University Dr. Dana of Chamot Alberta Project University Manager of Alberta Project manager Dr. M. Faramarzi University of Alberta Hydrological modeling, management and climate change scenario assessment 9/16/2015 Dr. D. Sauchyn University of Regina Climate change data and models Dr. J. Fennel Integrated Sustainability Calgary Groundwater Dr. V. Adamowicz University of Alberta Socio-economic Analysis Dr. S. Kienzle University of Lightbridge Basin water yield- ACRU model Dr S. Marshall University of Calgary, CIRC Glaciers and climate change Dr. K. Abbaspour Eawag, Switzerland Hydrological modeling 15

16 Why this study, and why now? Water is fast becoming a limiting factor and has prompted some drastic actions (e.g., closure of South Saskatchewan River Basin) Conflicts beginning to occur between various sectors including needs for ecosystem viability (e.g., emerging IFNs) Water has significant value to Alberta economy and future prosperity

17 Water Supply Climate Change Output ACRU Model Water Demand Glaciers Output Input SWAT Water Supply Model Output 1. Renewable Water 2. Crop yield 3. Crop water consumption Outpu t Water Demand Analysis SWAT Data Processing Output Ground Water Analysis Input Outpu t Economic Analysis Legend M. Faramarzi S. Marshall S. Kienzle D. Sauchyn J. Fennell V. Adamowicz Scenario Analysis: 1. Business As Usual 2. Future 9/16/2015

18 Project objectives: Water supply Water demand Water supply-demand analysis Management scenarios Economic analysis 9/16/

19 SWAT: Soil and Water Assessment Tool Built-in modules: Climate Snow Hydrology Nutrient/Pesticides Erosion Land cover/plant Management Practices Main channel processes Water bodies 9/16/

20 CFS-AAFC SWAT Input data Yield SLC-CANSIS Main input to build model Factors affecting hydrol. processes 9/16/

21 Study area: 2255 subbasins were delineated using SWAT with a 200 km 2 drainage area Model calibrationvalidation ( ): at 129 hydrometric stations 9/16/

22 Challenges: There are inherent errors in all hydrological models: Input data Physical processes Geospatial parameters Key challenge: Setting up an accurate hydrological model We are working on providing a measure of the potential error- Uncertainty analysis 9/16/

23 Why uncertainty analysis: Climate data Reservoirs (Ground water, potholes, dams and impoundments) Glaciers Geo-spatial parameters Sector analysis 9/16/

24 R 2 =0.29 9/16/

25 NRCan R 2 =0.27 NCEP-CFSR R 2 =0.37 9/16/

26 No single dataset providing good quality climate data at Alberta scale 9/16/

27 Athabasca Near Jasper Station (drainage area of 386 km 2 ) 9/16/

28 Why uncertainty analysis: Climate data Reservoirs Potholes Glaciers Geo-spatial parameters Agriculture 9/16/

29 Potholes: Battle River Near The Saskatchewan station (drainage area of 2,598 km 2 ) PFRA R 2 = 0.27, br 2 = 0.12 Discharge (m 3 sec -1 ) Jan-1993 Jan-1993 Jan-1994 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2002 Jan-2003 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 br 2 = 0.51, p_factor = 0.82, r_factor = 1.12 Jan-2006 Jan PPU Observed Best simulated Jan /16/

30 Why uncertainty analysis: Climate data Reservoirs Potholes Glaciers Geo-spatial parameters Agriculture 9/16/

31 Effect of glaciers in stream flow simulation: 9/16/2015 PAWF project-water Initiative U of A31

32 Haig Glacier (Shawn Marshall, U of C) Haig Glacier meltwater and runoff modelling, which is used as the basis for the monthly runoff extrapolation to Alberta (weighting by glacier area and elevation for the different basins).

33 Before calibration After calibration 9/16/

34 9/16/

35 Precipitation Snowfall Snowmelt Long term average: /16/

36 Renewable blue and green water components /16/

37 GW recharge GW recovery 9/16/

38 Water consumption (Vic Adamowicz, U of A) 9/16/

39 9/16/

40 Next step : 1. Predicting Climate Change Impact on individual basins Global Climate Models, GCMs? Regional Climate Models, RCMs? Biases correction? 2. Scenario Analysis- What ifs 3. Validating the Business As Usual scenario versus future scenarios on water demand 3. Economic analysis (Vic Adamowicz; UofA) 9/16/

41 Funding acknowledgements

42 Other Collaborators: Karim Abbaspour (Switzerland), Stefan Kinzle (U of L) and Jon Fennel (IS, Ltd) AI-EES 9/16/2015 Thank you so much for your attention 42