Infrastructure fit for Europe s energy needs

Transcription

1 Building the future together ENTSO-E TYNDP SCENARIOS Energy visions under the TYNDP and the impact on the network developoment Irina Minciuna Infrastructure fit for Europe s energy needs 27 May 2016

2 Grid planning From framing the future to specific projects Step 1: Set the frame of the future Scenarios development Step 4: Cost Benefit analysis Perform project assessment Step 2: Identification of the future needs Run market and network studies Step 3: Identification of the projects that satisfy the above needs Page 2

3 Click Step to 1: edit Master title style Set the frame of the future Scenarios development Step 2: Determine the assumptions for the studies timeframe Step 4: Run market studies to determine the energy mix, merit order, energy flows Step 1: determine the relevant timeframe to study Step 3: Collect/derive the data for each scenario Page 3

4 Stakeholders involvement in TYNDP scenario development Step 2: Determine the right assumptions for the studies timeframe Step 1: determine the relevant timeframe to study Step 3: Collect/derive the data for each scenario Step 4: Run market studies to determine the energy mix, merit order, energy flows Page 4

5 TYNDP 2016 scenarios One scenario Four Visions Page 5

6 Economy and Market Economic and financial conditions New market designs National schemes regarding R&D expenses Merit order:primary fuel pricing; CO2 pricing Demand Energy efficiency developments New usages (Heat pumps, Electric vehicles) Demand response potential Generation RES (wind, solar, run of river, biomass ) Flexibility of generators Back up capacity (nuclear, CCS) Decentralized and centralized storage Grid Smart grid and the impact on load & generation patterns Page 6

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8 Slowest progress Constrained progress National green transition European green revolution V1 V2 V3 V4 Economic and financial conditions Least favourable Less favourable More favourable Most favourable Focus of energy policies National European National European Focus of R&D National European National European CO 2 and primary low CO low CO fuel prices 2 price, high fuel price 2 price, high fuel high CO2 price, low fuel high CO2 price, low fuel price price price RES Electricity demand Demand response (and smart grids) Electric vehicles Heat pumps Adequacy Low national RES (>= 2020 target) Increase (stagnation to small growth) Between V1 and V3 High national RES On track to 2050 Decrease compared to 2020 (small growth but higher energy efficiency) stagnation compared to 2020( Increase (growth demand) As today Partially used Partially used Fully used 0% 5% 5% 20% No commercial break through of electric plug-in vehicles National - not autonomous limited back-up capacity Electric plug-in vehicles (flexible charging) Electric plug-in vehicles (flexible charging) Electric plug-in vehicles (flexible charging and generating) 0% 5% 5% 10% Minimum level Intermediate level Intermediate level Maximum level 1% 5% 5% 9% European - European - National - autonomous less back-up capacity than less back-up capacity than high back-up capacity V1 V3 Merit order Coal before gas Coal before gas Gas before coal Gas before coal Storage As planned today As planned today Decentralized Centralized Page 8

9 Scenario building Examples of Inputs (I) Demand across all scenarios Installed capacities TYNDP 2016 scenarios 9

10 Scenario building Examples of inputs (II) PV re-allocation from Vision 3 to Vision 4 10

11 Scenario building Examples of outputs(i) Annual demand covered by RES Comparison of the annual demand for the year 2030 (EU 28 perimeter) 11

12 Scenario building Examples of outputs (II) Annual generation and country balances EP2020 Annual generation and country balances -vision 4 12

13 Tyndp 2018 scenarios development already started 12 May- 12 June ENTSOs Public web based consultation - define the scenarios assumptions 2 June ENTSOs Public workshop - get the first input on scenarios frame Next steps with stakeholders still to be defined: Interaction on the methodology for scenario development Interaction on the scenario data Interaction on the draft reports Page 13

14 Conclusions Scenarios frame the identification of needs and projects assessment All of us have a view on the future. The grid shall stand indifferent of what the future may be. Within TYNDP ENTSO-E works together with you in all the steps of defining the scenario Page 14

15 Grid planning From framing the future to specific projects Step 1: Set the frame of the future Scenarios development Step 4: Cost Benefit analysis Perform project assessment Step 2: Identification of the future needs Run market and network studies Step 3: Identification of the projects that satisfy the above needs Page 15

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