INVOLVEMENT OF SOLAR AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN THE CAPACITY COVERAGE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE

Transcription

1 INVOLVEMENT OF SOLAR AND WIND POWER PLANTS IN THE CAPACITY COVERAGE OF THE INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM OF UKRAINE

2 KEY CONDITIONS FOR CALCULATIONS An increase in electricity consumption was taken at the level of 1% annually The capacity charts for indicative seasons (winter, summer, flooding) were used The average water capacity indicators for the Dnipro and Dnister Rivers were used The capacity of NPP was taken in accordance with the 4-year repairs schedule of NNEGC Energoatom Calculations were made taking into account a possible 30% deviation of the indicators of renewable sources electricity generation from the target figures All calculations are made taking into account the conditions as close to the today s realities as possible.

3 ACCURACY OF FORECASTING OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY WPP AND SPP MW Фактичне Actual capacity навантаження Планове Target capacity навантаження deviation 440 MW year The inaccuracy of the existing system of forecasting makes Ukrenergo attract additional balancing reserves.

4 VOLATILITY OF GREEN GENERATION: KEY CHALLENGES MW WPP 463 MW SPP 754 MW WPP SPP Total deviation 450 MW May '00-00 '01-00 '02-00 '03-00 '04-00 '05-00 '06-00 '07-00 '08-00 '09-00 '10-00 '11-00 '12-00 '13-00 '14-00 '15-00 '16-00 '17-00 '18-00 '19-00 '20-00 '21-00 '22-00 '23-00 year The normative amount of reserves in the IPS of Ukraine must be equal to 650 MW. The target fluctuations of RES generation in the amount of up to 450 MW must be taken into account when drafting a daily chart. The system is balanced. RES substitute the generation of thermal power stations in the amount of up to 2 billion kwh annually

5 GREEN GENERATION: BREAKING POINT 3000 MW WPP 1500 MW SPP 1500 MW The maximum level of the capacity of SPP and WPP, possibly managed by the Integrated Power System of Ukraine without serious deviations in the operation The system is balanced. RES with the annual generation by WPP 4.8 billion kwh and SPP 1.9 billion kwh respectively. RES substitute the generation of thermal power stations in the amount of 6 billion kwh annually. Until December 2019 the structure of generation must be replaced to ensure the increase in the share of RES in the energy balance

6 BREAKING POINT: CHARTS OF CAPACITIES ON WORKING DAYS (RES < 3000 MW) Chart of coverage of a working day in summer 2019 (SPP-1500 MW, WPP-1500 MW) Chart of coverage of a working day in winter 2019 (SPP-1500 MW, WPP-1500 MW) Basic capacity of hydropower plants 5.8 mln kwh Basic capacity of generating companies of thermal power stations 44.9 mln kwh Combined heat and power plants and Industrial stations 19.2 mln kwh NPP mln kwh Basic capacity of hydropower plants 3.4 mln kwh Basic capacity of generating companies of thermal power stations 81.3 mln kwh Combined heat and power plants and Industrial stations 55.2 mln kwh NPP mln kwh The balancing of the IPS of Ukraine is ensured by hydropower plants/pumped storage hydropower plants and the generating companies of thermal power stations. The further balancing without the unloading of NPP is impossible

7 RES > MW SCENARIO 1: CONSTRAINED LIMITATION OF GREEN GENERATION MW, mln, kwh Installed capacity (MW), target generation (mln kwh) and limitation of the electricity production by WPP, SPP (mln kwh) with 30% of deviation from the target indicators виробництво Generation обмеження Limitation встановлена WPP installed потуж. capacity СЕС встановлена SPP installed потуж. capacityвес

8 RES > MW SCENARIOS 2-3: LIMITATIONS OF NUCLEAR OR COAL GENERATION Green-coal paradox: if you do not restrict the RES without introducing new maneuvering capacities, you will have to reduce the basic capacity of NPP and increase it for the generating companies of thermal power stations At the same time, new high-maneuvering balancing capacities will allow us not to restrict the generation of RES and reduce the base capacity of coal generation.

9 KEY ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT WITH RES AT THE LEVEL OF 7,500 MW Green-coal paradox Maneuvering capacities and the development of RES Limitations of RES Providing the limitation of nuclear generation, the absence of restrictions for RES and a significant increase in the basic generation of the generating companies of thermal power stations, it will increase the cost of electricity by UAH per 1 MWh compared to the current price In the absence of restrictions for RES, the reduction of the basic generation of the generating companies of thermal power stations and the introduction of new maneuvering capacities by 2,500 MW, it will increase the cost of electricity by UAH 532 per 1 MWh compared to the current price If there are restrictions for RES, the cost of electricity will increase by UAH 1, per 1 MWh (or by 99.2%) compared to the current price The cost of electricity by 57.7% by 48.7% by 99.2%

10 HIGH-MANEUVERING BALANCING CAPACITIES: POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS MW Reserves of capacities in the IPS of Ukraine for the regulation of WPP and SPP at the expense of new maneuvering capacities and rechargeable batteries The main task of the IPS of Ukraine is to ensure the reliable operation of the system, taking into account the introduction of the required share of RES Decision the introduction of new capacities: 2000 MW of gas-piston power plants 500 MW of batteries Maneuvering reserves of TPS, HPP Rapid reserve of TPS, HPP New maneuvering capacities Rechargeable batteries

11 POSSIBILITIES OF HIGH-MANEUVERING BALANCING CAPACITIES Target generation of electricity by WPP and SPP in 2025 given various options for ensuring reserves (WPP-4200 MW, SPP-3300 MW) MW Mln kwh виробництво RES generation НДЕ обмеження Limitation of виробництва generation Target generation of electricity by the generating companies of thermal power stations in 2025 given various options for ensuring reserves (WPP-4200 MW, SPP-3300 MW) MW Mln kwh % 20 % 10 % % 80 % 90 % 100 % 1 GW Man. Gp. 2 GW Gp. 2 GW man GW accum % 30% 30% відхилення deviation відхилення deviation відхилення deviation 22 ГВт-ман., GW-man., 1ГВт-акум. 1 GW-accum. Only the introduction of new high-maneuvering balancing capacities in the IPS will allow increasing the volume of green generation, preserving the basic capacity of NPP and reducing the CO2 emissions by 7 million tons annually

12 CONCLUSIONS: DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-MANEUVERING CAPACITIES Ukrenergo unconditionally supports the development of alternative generation. The European experience and the experience of ENTSO-E demonstrate that RES is currently a key energy development trend. Ukrenergo considers it inappropriate to restrict the generation of RES in the course of balancing. The only option available today for balancing the IPS without the limitation of RES generation is the establishment of modern high-maneuvering capacities (gas-piston plants, pumped storage hydropower plants, energy storages, etc.). By 2025, it is necessary to build up to 2.5 thousand MW of such balancing capacities. This will allow us to avoid the limitation of RES and minimize the growth of electricity tariffs for consumers of all categories. The estimated cost of construction of these highmaneuvering capacities amounts to 55 billion UAH. 65 Billion UAH will be saved by consumers with the help of 2.5 thousand MW of high-maneuvering capacities with the RES capacity of 7,500 MW

13 CONCLUSIONS: DEVELOPMENT OF FORECASTING The introduction of a system of accurate forecasting, with a deviation of 5-10% in the market one day in advance and 3-5% in the domestic one day market, is the primary measure aimed to ensure the integration of RES. The lack of a reliable forecasting system will cost the consumer at least UAH 300 mln annually providing the commissioning of 7.5 thousand MW of RES capacities. The value of the project amounts to UAH 800 mln. The system must be implemented by the end of UAH 800 mln Project Value This will allow us to reduce the forecasting deviation from 30%, taken for these calculations (with the normative rate of 50%), to 3-10%. Ukrenergo initiates the development of requirements for the system of determining the non-delivery of electricity by each of the RE objects for fair compensation of the cost of unproduced electricity (in the case of restrictions).

14 CONCLUSIONS: SUPPORT FOR CRUCIAL STAKEHOLDERS The Government must approve a specific mechanism for the introduction of a competition for the construction of highmaneuvering capacities, as provided by the Law of Ukraine On the Electricity Market. On the basis of the Report on the assessment of the adequacy of generation updated by Ukrenergo, the National Commission for Utilities and Energy State Regulation must determine the specific mechanism for financing the construction of highmaneuvering capacities for the full development of the market of auxiliary services By the end of 2018, the Ministry of Energy and Coal Industry must hold a competition for the construction of high-maneuvering capacities in the amount specified in the Report on the assessment of the adequacy of generation (up to 500 MW of installed capacity)

15 Thank you for your attention! Дякую за увагу!