Technology and Energy

Transcription

1 Technology and Energy E-mobility: Potential and Limitations Hearing is a fascinating sensation 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH Prof. Dr. sc. techn. Konstantinos Boulouchos Institute of Energy Technology and Energy Science Center, ETH Zürich Herzogenrath, September 23, 2011

2 E-mobility: Potential and Limitations Anticipated benefits Risks and limitations When will e-mobility penetrate the market to a significant extent? What would change if? 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 2 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

3 Which transportation modes do we consider? It is primarily about individual personal mobility and freight transportation over short distances Additional shift of road to rail is not relevant for the discussion at hand Long-range transportation (both personal and freight) through ships and airplanes will be based on hydrocarbons at least for several decades 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 3 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

4 Anticipated benefits e-mobility provides a quieter environment in urban settings (only) Local pollutant emission are essentially zero Primary Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions can be substantially reduced if electricity is clean (from renewable sources) 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 4 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

5 Competitive landscape for e-mobility Perceived benefits must be comparatively assessed against potential risk and limitations Incumbent technology is not static conventional engines (incl. hybrids) make fast progress with regard to zero-pollutants, high efficiency, access to biogenic energy carriers etc. Decisive factors will be: overall systems costs (incl. infrastructure) social/cultural perception by young generation 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 5 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

6 Risk and limitations / I Batteries could remain prohibitively expensive and heavy, so that market share remains small (Re-)charging infrastructure too complex to manage or too capital intensive Electricity would perhaps change too slowly towards CO2-free, so that ecological footprint unfavorable 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 6 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

7 Risk and limitations / II Congestion in urban areas would remain a problem, even with e-mobility, if business models (and cars themselves) remain the same grey -energy investment in e-mobility would offset CO2-savings during operation (fuel) Limited resources on key materials*) could spark geopolitic strains and conflicts *) neodym, lithium, cobalt 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 7 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

8 Possible favorable disruptive development Breakthroughs in storage technologies (costs, weight, durability) possible within years Massive deployment of cost-efficient e-technology in emerging countries (China) quite probable, given the rapid scale-up potential and leap-forward strategies ( existing conventional infrastructure of less concern) 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 8 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

9 E-mobility: what, if it would be successful? / I Massive rearrangement of fuel -energy sector, with new alliance and power constellations among global players changing the overall landscape New business-models would be based on mobility as service (apart from pocessing a car as status symbol itself), reflecting a change in value perceptions and cultural connotations infrastructure of less concern) Overall: safety, communication/it-, additional service features provide opportunities for efficient integration and new industries around mobility 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 9 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos

10 E-mobility: what, if it would be successful? / II Among prominently affected phenomena would be noise emission patterns and therefore changes of acoustic landscapes in urban settings Given the large time scale associated with massive changes in electricity and transportation infrastructure, chances are big that conventional and (semi-)electric powertrains will coexist in the decades to come Organizing optimal coexistence of these two transportation modes will be of crucial importance for business success in associated markets 25 Years HEAD acoustics GmbH 10 Prof. Dr. Konstantinos Boulouchos