Role of Global Meteorological Enterprise in Addressing Agenda Michel Jean

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1 Role of Global Meteorological Enterprise in Addressing Agenda 2030 Michel Jean President of the WMO s Commission for Basic Systems & Director General, Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada CMOS Luncheon December 11, 2018

2 A Changing Planet Extreme Heat Photo credit: Climate related Epidemics Page 2 December Polar Changes

3 These challenges don t know any borders Since January 2018, 15 catastrophic events and 10 notable events in Canada were registered in the CatIQ database Catastrophic Events: with industry insured loss estimates > $25M Notable Events: causing losses between ~ $10M-$25M Page 3 December Source: Moudrak et al., 2018, Insurance Bureau of Canada

4 Weather is changing and so are the related global risks Global risk landscape 2018 World Economic Forum Categories Economic Environmental Geopolitic Societal Technological Environmental Risks Social consequences Page 4 December Geopolitical consequences

5 Key Drivers 1. Increasing threats of extreme weather and climate urge action for resilience, mitigation and adaptation 2. Global agenda creating unprecedented demand for actionable, accessible and authoritative science-based information 3. Advancements in science and technology and changing landscape of data and service delivery urge for innovative partnerships 4. Growing capacity gap threatens global infrastructure and services Page 5 December-19-18

6 The role of the Hydro-Meteorological Enterprise is evolving Even more relevant than before Source : Jackie and Rick Morris, via CBC Page 6 December-19-18

7 Looking forward as a global community WMO s Vision for 2030 Page 7 December-19-18

8 Long-term goals of WMO and the global hydro-meteorological enterprise SEAMLESS Page 8 December-19-18

9 Seamless System: Integrated science, modelling and prediction Weather forecasting Functionality from climate fed back to weather (e.g. dust, composition) Shared infrastructure Climate prediction Improving weather forecast model leads to improved climate prediction Page 9 December-19-18

10 Seamless at timescales Climate Outlooks Climate Predictions Weather Forecasts Warnings Forecast Lead Time Months 2 weeks 1 week Days Hours Minutes Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Impact Based Decision Support RECOVERY RESPONSE PREPARATION NWS_041 International network of multi-hazard early warning systems Frequency and intensity of events are monitored by NMHSs in order to provide impact-oriented warnings NMHSs prevent loss by providing data and analysis to increase the robustness of critical infrastructure/building codes Page 10 December

11 Seamless data access, processing and forecasting Verification Data & Impact Data Page 11 December-19-18

12 Current state of the Global Data Processing and Forecasting System Page 12 December-19-18

13 Role of the International Science Community Knowledge of earth systems requires collaboration, coordination, open science and open data Science is the foundation and driver of policy outcomes which lead to socioeconomic outcomes Toward a more effective Science-forservice transition World Weather Research Programme, & World Climate Research Programme Page 13 December-19-18

14 In summary We strive to: Provide more effective and adaptable monitoring and prediction system enabling Hydro-Meteorological Enterprise and partners to make better-informed decisions Facilitate the provision of impact-based forecasts and riskbased warnings through partnership and collaboration Do so through the sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services in a cost effective, timely and agile way, with the effect of benefitting all WMO Members, while also reducing the gaps between developed and developing Members Page 14 December-19-18

15 Thank you Page 15 December-19-18