The Central Asian-Caspian energy system: a 4- Regions model and the integration with China

Transcription

1 65th Semi-annual ETSAP meeting Xijiao Hotel, 18 Wang Zhuang Road, Haidian District, The Central Asian-Caspian energy system: a 4- Regions model and the integration with China Presented by Maurizio Gargiulo on behalf of A. Bakdolotov, Y. Akhmetbekov, A. Ibrayeva, A. Kerimray, A. Kudaibergenov R. De Miglio, G.C. Tosato

2 Outline Overview of the CAC Area Handling cooperative non-cooperative approaches Export routes Scenarios Some results Integration with China Conclusions 2/20

3 Overview of the Area (CAC) Population in 2009 (million) Azerbaijan: 8.8 Kazakhstan: 15.9 Turkmenistan: 5.1 Uzbekistan: 27.8 Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Azerbaijan GDPP (PPP) 2000 USD Azerbaijan: 8702 Kazakhstan: 8400 Turkmenistan: 9859 Uzbekistan: 2395 Growth indexes, medium case: Population GDPP /20

4 Country-specific indicators: proven fossil fuels reserves (1/3) Last available data - OGJ Significant increase of natural gas reserves in Turkmenistan (recent estimations) Kazakhstan proven Mt coal reserves: 4/20

5 Country-specific indicators: fossil fuels export (2/3) 2009 Data Kazakhstan export: 28.6 Mt coal 5/20

6 Country-specific indicators: final energy consumptions (3/3) 2009 Data Low overall inefficiency: (TFC/TPES = 56%; World average 68%) High technical and above normative losses. 6/20

7 Objective of the research Assess quantitatively the direct economic advantage of cooperation policies in the energy and climate change mitigation sectors among CAC countries, under different development and policy assumptions. More specifically exploring the lumpy investment possibilities in oil and gas cross-country pipelines. In each country model, domestic fossil energy resources are available to supply: the endogenous level of domestic demand, the endogenous level of trade among the 4 CAC countries, and the exogenous level of export to the rest of the world. 7/20

8 Cooperation policies directly modelled - Exploitation of Caspian oil and natural gas resources disputes resolution over the oil and gas field and exploitation of the Caspian resources to their maximum technical availability. - Investment in the construction of new pipelines number and size of new infrastructures is open to several possibilities (integer variables) Main characterisation parameters: Approx. Capacities New oil pipelines, among the 4 CAC countries length, km (M.bbl/day) KZK-TKM /0.1/0.24 KZK-UZB /0.2/0.5 Non-CAC transit Countries New oil pipelines, with the rest of the world length, km (M.bbl/day) KZK-MED sea, via AZJ GEO, TUR /0.72/1.2 New gas pipelines with the rest of the world length, km (Bcm/a) TKM-RF, through KZK RF, UKR/BLR /51.5/80 TKM-CHI, through UZB/KZK /30/35 TKM-CHI, through UZB/TJK/KYR TAJ, KYR /23/28.5 TKM-MED sea, through AZJ GEO, TUR /8.5/20 - Maintenance of free exchange in the energy sector customs duties across the four countries remains zero - Creation of a joint CO2 emission permit system in the area opening of some sort of Emission Trading Scheme, in order to make it cheaper to achieve the mitigation objective of Kazakhstan (the only country in CAC with binding commitments) 8/20

9 Economic value of cooperation: key drivers Amount of export Directions of export Climate change mitigation commitments (of Kazakhstan). The first driver is explored considering three oil and gas export levels - Ref: constant to the BY level of about 110 Mtoe of crude oil and about 40 Mtoe of natural gas - Mid: natural gas increasing in 2030 by 42 Bcm/a and crude oil by 50 Mt/a above the base - Max: natural gas increasing in 2030 by 62 Bcm/a and crude oil by 55 Mt/a above the base The second driver is explored considering three alternative preferential export routes - East to China - West via Russia Federation - West via Azerbaijan The third driver is explored considering three mitigation policies - No emissions limits - Overall emission limit of 670 MtCO2eq/a in 2030 for the whole Area (cooperative) - Overall emission limit of 670 MtCO2eq/a in 2030 for the whole Area and KZK-specific limit of 245 MtCO2eq/a (non-cooperative) 9/20

10 Main oil export routes Exit points Crude Oil CPC - Russia - Market (Kazakhstan) Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Crude Oil BTC - Turkey - Market (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan) Crude Oil Phase3 - China (Kazakhstan) Crude Oil export (2009) [Mt]: Kazakhstan (69.0) - Uzbekistan (0.0) - Turkmenistan (2.0) - Azerbaijan (44.3) 10/20

11 Exit points Natural Gas Pipeline to - Russia (Kazakhstan) Natural Gas BTE - Europe (Azerbijan, Kazakhstan Turkmenistan) Natural Gas Pipeline to - China (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan) Main gas export routes Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Natural Gas export (2009) [Bcm]: Kazakhstan (10.0) - Uzbekistan (14.8) - Turkmenistan (19.0) - Azerbaijan (5.8) 11/20

12 Scenario: East to CHI Export target (mid) Natural Gas Additional 42 Bcm exported by 2030 of which: - 70% to China (Turkmenistan-China agreement) Crude Oil Additional 50 Mt exported by 2030 of which: - 40% to China (Kazakhstan-China agreement) Natural Gas: 90 Bcm Chinese TPES in 2009 (IEA) Crude Oil: 390 Mtoe Chinese TPES in 2009 (IEA) 12/20

13 Scenario: West via Russia Export target (mid) Natural Gas Additional 42 Bcm exported by 2030 of which: - 100% to Russia/Ukraine/EU Crude Oil Additional 50 Mt exported by 2030 of which: - 85% to Russia-market (mainly CPC expansion) Natural Gas: 525 Bcm European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA) Crude Oil: 630 Mtoe European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA) 13/20

14 Scenario: West via Azerbaijan Export target (mid) Natural Gas Additional 42 Bcm exported by 2030 of which: - 35% to Turkey-EU (through BTE expansion) Crude Oil Additional 50 Mt exported by 2030 of which: - 50% to Turkey-market (through BTC expansion) Natural Gas: 525 Bcm European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA) Crude Oil: 630 Mtoe European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA) 14/20

15 Origin of NG exported and cross-country endogenous pipelines WMS_HE = cooperative scenario of High Export to Western Europe via Georgia, Turkey and the Mediterranean Sea WRF_HE = cooperative scenario of High Export to Western Europe via the Russian Federeation WRF_HE_NC = non-cooperative WRF_HE Pipeline WRF_HE WMS_HE Name Direct gas export from AZJ to Med (linear variable) Direct oil export from AZJ to Med (linear variable) Direct oil export from KZK to China (linear variable) Direct oil export from KZK to Russia (linear variable) Direct gas export from KZK to Russia (linear variable) Gas export UZB-KZK (to Russia, 200) (integer) 2*200 2*200 2*200 Gas export UZB-KZK (to Russia, 300) (integer) 1*300 1*300 Gas export TKM-KZK (to Russia, 1000) (integer) 0 0 1*1000 Gas export TKM-AZJ (to Med, 200) (integer) 1*200 1*200 2*200 Gas export TKM-UZB-KZK (to China, 850) (integer) 2*850 2*850 2*850 Oil export KZK-AZJ (to Med, 500) (integer) 1*500 1*500 2*500 Oil export KZK-UZB (200) (integer) 1*200 1*200 1*200 2*200 15/20

16 Emissions and primary energy supply by scenario Ref = cooperative reference scenario, with stationary export levels, without emission limitations; Ref_Emi = cooperative reference scenario, with stationary export levels and emission limitations on the CAC Area Ref_Emi_NC = Ref Emi non-cooperative 16/20

17 Easteward scenarios: impacts on primary energy supply Cooperation/Non-Cooperation Additional export targets to CHI Scenarios Scen_Cooperative -GHG reduction commitment for the whole Area -Gas: About +30 Bcm/y in Oil: About +20 Mt/y in 2020 Scen_Non-Cooperative -GHG reduction commitment for Kazakhstan only -Gas: About +30 Bcm/y in No TransCaspian pipelines -Oil: About +20 Mt/y in Limited extraction capacity development -Higher costs for cross-country trades / infrastructures Export levels to China exogenously defined 17/20

18 CAC-China model: a 5-Regions model Azerbaijan China Kazakhstan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 3 integer options for crude oil cross-country pipelines (to China) ranging from 300 to 1000 PJ/a. 6 integer options for natural gas cross-country pipelines (to China) ranging from 800 to 1250 PJ/a - 3 short lenghts (Xinjiang) - 3 long lenghts (East) Export levels to China endogenously defined: - Crude oil (delivery point in Kazakhstan) - Natural gas (delivery point in Kazakhstan) - Natural gas (delivery point in Uzbekistan - through Tajikistan and Kyrgyztan) 18/20

19 Next steps Full integration of China in the 5-Regions model, extension of the time horizon to 2050, update of the techno-economic data for the new possible infrastructures based on the recent agreements (e.g. KZ-Russia, KZ-China, ). Cooperative / non-cooperative scenarios for the CAC Countries, driven by the Chinese energy-environmental policies. Integration of the Southern corridors. Multi-criteria assessment of the export routes (trade-offs) and explicit modeling of diversification (from the perspective of the CAC exporters) Cooperative / non-cooperative analyses making use of a Game Theory-based approach. 19/20

20 Contacts Aidyn Bakdolotov, NURIS Yerbol Akhmetbekov, NURIS