Trends in Clean Energy Investment

Transcription

1 Trends in Clean Energy Investment Madrid 31 st January 212 Guy Turner Director, Bloomberg New Energy Finance /// MICHAEL / / / LIEBREICH / / / SUMMIT / / / KEYNOTE, / / / 5 / APRIL / / 211 / / / 1

2 CONTENTS 1. Global annual clean energy investment overview 2. Drivers 3. Threats 4. Projections 2

3 GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY ($BN) 31% $247bn 5% $26bn 1% 22% $187bn $189bn 35% $153bn 51% $113bn $54bn 39% $75bn Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition transactions 3

4 CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT TYPES & FLOWS 211 ($BN) Asset and company mergers, acquisitions, refinancing, buy-outs etc Projects Equipment manufacturing/ scale-up Technology development VC Corp RD&D* Gov R&D* PE Public markets new equity Total company investment Re-invested Asset finance SDC* Total investment M&A/ Buy-outs etc. Total transactions Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Adjusted for re-invested equity. 4

5 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION Q1 24 Q4 211 ($BN) Q1 4 Q2 4 Q3 4 Q4 4 Q1 5 Q2 5 Q3 5 Q4 5 Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 EMEA AMER ASOC Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity 5

6 NEW FINANCIAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY SECTOR Q1 24 Q4 211 ($BN) Q1 4 Q2 4 Q3 4 Q4 4 Q1 5 Q2 5 Q3 5 Q4 5 Q1 6 Q2 6 Q3 6 Q4 6 Q1 7 Q2 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 Q2 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 Q2 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Wind Solar Biofuels Other Note: Excludes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity. Not adjusted for re-invested equity 6

7 CLEAN VS FOSSIL-BASED GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 24 1 ($BN) 25 2 Fossil fuel 15 1 Clean energy Note: Investment for new build fossil fuel calculated from EIA & IEA numbers, clean energy taken from Bloomberg New Energy Finance totals. Clean energy capacity includes small distributed capacity. Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 7

8 CONTENTS 1. Global annual clean energy investment overview 2. Drivers 3. Threats 4. Projections 8

9 DRIVERS OF INVESTMENT GROWTH, 29 1 ($BN) EUROPEAN ROOFTOP SOLAR CHINA +12% % % of increase world clean energy in asset investment

10 ASSET FINANCE FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY TOP 15 COUNTRIES, 21 ($BN) China United States Brazil Germany Italy Spain Canada India Belgium Mexico United Kingdom Australia Portugal Pakistan Poland ASOC AMER EMEA Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals 1

11 CHINA POWER CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, 21-11E (GW) Solar Biomass & WtE Wind Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Coal e Source: China Electricity Council, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 11

12 TOP 1 GLOBAL PV CELL MANUFACTURERS 26, 21 (RANK ORDER BY CAPACITY) 2% +46% per year 65% Company Country Capacity (MW) Company Country Capacity (MW) Sharp Japan 5 Q-Cells Germany 42 Suntech China 27 Motech Taiwan 24 Solarworld Germany 2 China Sunergy China 18 Kyocera Japan 18 Isofoton Spain 13 Schott Germany 121 Sanyo Electric Japan 115 JA Solar China 1,9 Suntech China 1,62 First Solar (TF) US 1,52 Yingli China 1,1 Trina Solar China 1, Q-Cells Germany 1, Canadian Solar China 8 Motech Taiwan 6 Gintech Taiwan 6 JinkoSolar China 6 Note: Capacity counted as either crystalline silicon cell or thin film module. TF is thin film Europe US China Other Asia, company announcements 12

13 THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, ($/W) , 1, 1, 1,, MW (log) historic prices experience curve Chinese c-si module prices Thin-film experience curve First Solar thin-film module cost Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI, R2 of c-si regression =.94, R2 of FSLR regression =.98 Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FSLR filings 13

14 RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY $/kwh average residential power price.7 More sun.6 5GW.5.4 Denmark Germany Hawai.3 UK Netherlands.2.1 United Kingdom Czech Republic Switzerland Italy France South Korea China United States Spain Turkey Portugal CA CA Japan California South Africa 211 LCOE 215 LCOE. 8 1, 1,2 1,4 1,6 kwh/kw/year Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital,.7%/year module degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. $3.5/W capex assumed for 211, $2/W for

15 SOLAR TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q STEG - Parabolic Trough PV - Thin Film PV - c-si Tracking STEG - Parabolic Trough w/storage PV - c-si Prices are in nominal dollars 15

16 WIND TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) 25 2 Wind - Offshore 15 1 Wind - Onshore 5 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Prices are in nominal dollars 16

17 BIOMASS TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Biomass - Incineration Municipal Solid Waste Biomass - Gasification Biomass - Anaerobic Digestion Landfill Gas Prices are in nominal dollars 17

18 GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) Geothermal - Binary Plant 6 4 Geothermal - Flash 2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Prices are in nominal dollars 18

19 MARINE TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) Marine - Wave Marine - Tidal Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Prices are in nominal dollars 19

20 FOSSIL TECHNOLOGY LCOES ($/MWH) Coal w/co2 CCGT w/co2 Coal CCGT 2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Prices are in nominal dollars 2

21 LEVELISED COST OF ENERGY Q1 212 ($/MWH) Marine - Tidal Marine - Wave STEG - Parabolic Trough STEG - Parabolic Trough + Storage Wind - Offshore STEG - Tower & Heliostat STEG - LFR PV - c-si PV - Thin Film STEG - Tower & Heliostat w/storage Geothermal - Binary Plant PV - c-si Tracking Biomass - Gasification Biomass - Incineration Biomass - Anaerobic Digestion Municipal Solid Waste Geothermal - Flash Plant Wind - Onshore Landfill Gas Coal Fired Natural Gas CCGT - -1% -1% - +2% - +7% -1% - -1% -6% -7% -7% -7% -7% -4% -8% +3% -8% % LCOE BNEF 211 EU-ETS EUA Forecast Q4 211 Central Scenario Q3 211 Central Scenario Carbon forecasts from the BNEF European Carbon Model with a 22 horizon $89/tCO2. Coal and nat gas prices from the US Department of Energy EIA Annual Energy Outlook 211. % change represents change in mid from Q

22 ELECTRIC VEHICLE FLEET FORECASTS 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, UK France Germany Belgium Netherlands 22

23 UK EXAMPLE - LOCATION PATTERNS JANUARY (WED) Percent of cars in each location 1% 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% Percent of cars arriving home 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5% 5%.% : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 2: 21: 22: 23: Home Work Other Driving Net home arrivals in last 15 min Source: Derived from 22-8 National Travel Survey data 23

24 EFFECTS ON INTRADAY LOAD, JANUARY 225 (WED) GW 7 Dumb Charging GW 7 Time of Use Charging AES AGS 5 4 AES AGS 3 2 Intraday load 3 2 Intraday load 1 1 1: 5: 9: 13: 17: 21: 1: 5: 9: 13: 17: 21: Daily variation Daily variation : 5: 9: 13: 17: 21:.1. 1: 5: 9: 13: 17: 21: 24

25 IMPACTS ON ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE UK TWh 25

26 CONTENTS 1. Global annual clean energy investment overview 2. Drivers 3. Threats 4. Projections 26

27 GREECE SENIOR 5-YEAR USD DENOMINATED CDS Bloomberg Terminal 27

28 SPAIN SENIOR 5-YEAR USD DENOMINATED CDS Bloomberg Terminal 28

29 ITALY SENIOR 5-YEAR USD DENOMINATED CDS Bloomberg Terminal 29

30 FRANCE SENIOR 5-YEAR USD DENOMINATED CDS Bloomberg Terminal 3

31 CDS SPREADS - PORTUGAL 31

32 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY STIMULUS SPENDING BY YEAR, ($BN) Global total = $193.9bn % 68 35%. % 2.3 1% % 9.7 5% e 212e 213e Note: according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance expectations 32

33 GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY STIMULUS SPENDING BY YEAR, ($BN) Global total = $193.9bn % 68 35% Spent = $94.8bn, 49% Unspent = $31.1bn, 16%. % 2.3 1% % 9.7 5% e 212e 213e Note: according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance expectations 33

34 CONTENTS 1. Global annual clean energy investment overview 2. Drivers 3. Threats 4. Projections 34

35 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 21-3 (TWH) 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, Nuclear Hydro Renewables (excl large hydro) 1, 8, 6, Fossil fuels 4, 2,

36 ANNUAL VALUE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INSTALLED BY REGION, 25-3 ($BN) RoW MENA India 15 China 1 US & Canada 5 Europe

37 ANNUAL VALUE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITY INSTALLED BY TECHNOLOGY SECTOR, 25-3 ($BN) Biomass & waste Heat Biofuels 2 Solar Wind

38 REST OF THE WORLD ELECTRICITY GENERATION (TWH) China US RoW Europe Japan & S Korea MENA India Canada Brazil Australia China RoW US Europe Japan & S Korea MENA India Brazil Canada Australia RoW China US Europe Japan & S Korea MENA India Brazil Canada Australia 38

39 EUROPEAN UNION POWER GENERATION TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY BY TECHNOLOGY (GWTH) EU-27 POWER GENERATION FUEL MIX (%) 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, ,246 Wind offshore 1, Wind 847 Wind Wind Wind Solar Solar Solar Biomass & waste Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Gas Gas Gas Gas Coal Coal Coal Coal % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Hydro Nuclear Gas Renewables (excl hydro) Hydro Nuclear Gas Renewables (excl hydro) Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Coal Coal Renewables (excl hydro) Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal

40 EUROPEAN UNION POWER GENERATION AVERAGE ANNUAL NEW BUILD OF RENEWABLES (GW) AVERAGE ANNUAL CLEAN INVESTMENT IN POWER GENERATION Wind offshore Wind offshore Wind Wind Wind offshore 5 4 Wind offshore Wind Wind offshore Wind offshore 1 Wind 3 Wind Wind 5 Solar Solar Solar 2 1 Solar Solar Solar Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Biomass & waste

41 IMPACTS OF EU ETS ON POWER SECTOR TWh 4,5 EU Power sector development NO carbon price 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 RE nuclear lignite gas coal Renew Oil Nuclear Lignite Gas Coal, Global Energy and Emissions Model 41

42 IMPACTS OF EU ETS ON POWER SECTOR TWh 4,5 EU Power sector development carbon price 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, RE nuclear lignite gas Renew Oil Nuclear Lignite Gas Coal 5 coal (CO2 price 45/t by 22), Global Energy and Emissions Model 42

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