C-SMART: Planning for Sea Level Rise in Tomales Bay, September 23, 2016 Jack Liebster, Planning Manager, Marin County
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3 C-SMART: Planning for Sea Level Rise in Tomales Bay, September 23, 2016 Jack Liebster, Planning Manager, Marin County
4 Sustainable Marin?
5 Sea Level Rise Adaptation Process Evaluate Science Info. Implement & Monitor Identif Assets Plan Action Assess Vulnerability Evaluate Adaptations
6 Uncertainty in Estimates Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 4
7 Identifying Future Risk with CoSMoS 1. Global forcing using the latest climate models 2. Drives global and regional wave models 3. Scaled down to local hazards projections
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9 EXPOSURE SLR VS. ANNUAL STORM
10 December 3, Mill Valley
11 December 3, Mill Valley
12 Today
13 1.6 feet SLR
14 3.3 feet SLR
15 3.3.feet SLR
16 Today
17 6.6 feet SLR
18 16.4 feet SLR
19 ASSET MAPPING & INVENTORYING I & M Plan Science Assets Vulnerabl. Mapping people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; and economic, social, & cultural assets Evaluate Agricultural land Protected areas Public beaches and parks Dunes River & streams Wetland areas Habitat areas Oyster beds Sandspits Shorebirds Roads and transportation Trails Buildings Residential development Commercial buildings Schools Elderly/mobility limited facilities Hotels/Motels Harbors and marinas Fishing, aquaculture facilities Utilities & services Septic leach fields Water Supply wells Archeological/ Paleontological sites Historic sites
20 The Vulnerability Assessment Tool
21 Community Vulnerability
22 Local Citizens Providing Additional Information on Assets at Public Workshops
23 Game of Floods Board Workshops 21
24 Excerpt of Table of Contents
25 Key Findings 4,700 acres exposed at mean higher high water Mean higher high water: The average high tide, thus some sites could be dry during lower tides. Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 23
26 Key Findings 1,100 buildings 1,300 parcels 22% of residential, 33% of commercial Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 24
27 Key Findings 20 miles of roads including Shoreline Hwy, Calle del Arroyo, Olema-Bolinas Rd., and Sir Francis Drake Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 25
28 Key Findings $300 million in assessed value, market value is higher $7 million in property tax $700,000 in Transient Occupancy Tax Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 26
29 Key Findings Utilities, septic and drinking water systems Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 27
30 Marshes could convert to mud flats or move upland Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 28
31 Key Findings Beaches could flood and erode Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 29
32 Chicken Ranch Beach at King Tide Credit: Richard James for California King Tides Project Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 30
33 Inverness at King Tide Credit: Abe Doherty for California King Tides Project Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 31
34 Natural Assets Vulnerability Assessment Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 32
35 Community-Specific Adaptation Concepts Approach Protect (hard and soft) Accommodate Retreat Timeframe for implementation (based on timing of impacts feasibility, public support and cost are currently being assessed) Near-term Medium-term Long-term Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 33
36 Near-term Restore and enhance wetlands Oyster reef/ living shorelines Elevate/floodproof buildings Permit houseboats Replace old septic systems Medium-term Convert road segments to levee Construct horizontal levee Elevate or realign road segments Community wastewater system Remove/relocate development Long-term Convert additional road to levee Remove/relocate development Boat moorings Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 34
37 LCP Policies for coastal hazard areas 1. Perform a sea level rise hazards analysis as part of a Coastal Development Permit for new projects on vacant land or for projects that expand the size of existing development by 50% unless exempt or Categorically Excluded. 2. Allow waivers or seek a Categorical Exclusion for projects in coastal hazard areas, including structures in the 100-year floodplain, that meet certain standards. Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 35
38 Policies for coastal hazard areas 3. Raise building height limits in coastal hazard areas to allow for adaptation to sea level rise. 4. Encourage the creation of local self-funded assessment districts to manage common hazard risks. 5. Evaluate a managed retreat program. 6. Prioritize adaptation options that protect, enhance, and maximize protection of coastal resources and public access. Community Development Agency Collaboration: Sea-level Marin Adaptation Response Team December 10, Slide 36
39 We Could Go This Way
40 or This.
41 Collaboration with Stanford s Center for Ocean Studies on Natural Capital
42 Seagrass and Oyster to Calm the Waters?
43 Living Shoreline Oyster beds in SF Bay 41
44 Oyster Reef Complex
45 43
46 Structural Protection 44
47 A Personal Invitation
48 Questions?
49 Draft V.A. available at Hard copies at West Marin libraries Mail comments to: Marin County Community Development Agency c/o Vulnerability Assessment 3501 Civic Center Drive, Suite 308 San Rafael, CA Or THANK YOU!
50 Community Development Agency 3501 Civic Center Drive, Suite 308 San Rafael, CA T / F marinslr.org
51 Game of Floods : Pt. Reyes Station