Outlook and Updates on Mindanao Power Situation

Transcription

1 2013 to 2020 Supply-Demand Outlook and Updates on Mindanao Power Situation 2013 Mindanao Business Conference SMX Convention Center, SM Lanang Premiere, Davao City 9 August 2013 Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla Department of Energy

2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION DRAFT SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK, 2013 to 2030 STATUS OF COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS LIST OF INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION

3 DRAFT SUPPLY AND DEMAND OUTLOOK

4 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK Maibarara Geo (20 MW) Oct 2013 Putting Bato Phase 1 (135 MW) Aug 2014 Pililia Wind (67 MW) Sep 2014 SJCI Biomass (9.9 MW) Nov 2014 Southwest Luzon 1 (150 MW) Dec 2014 Southwest Luzon 2 (150 MW) Mar 2015 Isabela Biomass (20 MW) Mar 2015 Putting Bato Phase 2 (135 MW) Nov On Available Capacity: Apr-May 2015: ed Deficit of 184 MW Mar-Jul 2016: ed Deficit of 240 to 635 MW ed Demand Available Capacity Available+Committed Start of Critical Periods On Available Capacity + Committed: Apr-Jun 2017: ed Deficit of 200 to 450 MW Mar-Dec 2018: ed Deficit of 270 to 940 MW Notes a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 4.2 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for c. 4.8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for d. Assumed 6.6 percent average forced outage of the total dependable capacity

5 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13 Nov 13 Jan 14 Mar 14 May 14 Jul 14 Sep 14 Nov 14 Jan 15 Mar 15 May 15 Jul 15 Sep 15 Nov 15 Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18 Mar 18 May 18 Jul 18 Sep 18 Nov 18 Jan 19 Mar 19 May 19 Jul 19 Sep 19 Nov 19 Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 VISAYAS SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK Villasiga HEP(8 MW) Mar 2014 Nasulo Geo (50 MW) Jun 2014 Toledo Expansion (82 MW) Sep 2014 San Carlos Biomass (16 MW) Mar 2015 ASIAN Biomass (3.6 MW) Jun 2015 Concepcion Coal 1(135 MW) Jul 2016 Concepcion Coal 2(135 MW) Sep On Available Capacity: Nov-Dec 2014: ed Deficit of 30 to 90 MW Apr-Dec 2015: ed Deficit of 80 MW to Max 220 MW ed Demand Available Capacity Available+Committed Start of Critical Periods On Available Capacity + Committed: Dec 2015: ed Deficit of 60 MW Apr-Jun 2016: ed Deficit of 70 to 100 MW Dec 2017-Dec 2018: ed Deficit of 120 to 305 MW Notes a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 7 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for c. 8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for d. Assumed 7 percent average forced outage of the total dependable capacity

6 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec 13 Jan 14 Feb 14 Mar 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 Jul 14 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Mindanao SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK EEI HFO (15 MW) Aug 2013 Sarangani Coal(200 MW) Sep Mapalad (15 MW) Oct 2013 Therma South (300 MW) Mar IDPP (98 MW) Oct ed Demand Available Capacity Available+Committed Critical Periods On Available Capacity: 2013: ed Deficit of 50 to 110 MW 2014: ed Deficit of 50 to 190 MW 2015: ed Deficit 120 to 280 MW Notes a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 5.6 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for c % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2016 d. 8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for e. Assumed 3.41 percent average forced outage of the total dependable capacity

7 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 May 16 Jun 16 Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Oct 17 Nov 17 Dec 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mar 18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Aug 18 Sep 18 Oct 18 Nov 18 Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19 Jun 19 Jul 19 Aug 19 Sep 19 Oct 19 Nov 19 Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Mindanao SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK Mt Apo 3 (50 MW) Jun ed Demand Available Capacity Available+Committed Next Critical Periods On Available Capacity + Committed: Nov-Dec 2017: ed Deficit of 20 to 50 MW 2018: ed Deficit of 50 to 200 MW Notes a. Demand curve as plotted includes total of peak demand and required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 5.6 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.8 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for c % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2016 d. 8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 1 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for e. Assumed 3.41 percent average forced outage of the total dependable capacity

8 2013 MINDANAO GRID MONTHLY OPERATING PROGRAM

9 Dependable Capacities, Mindanao FUEL TYPE DEPENDABLE CAP. (MW) Difference (2013 & 2011) MW % Coal Oil Based Geothermal (2) -2 Hydro (81) -9 Solar (1) -70 Biomass TOTAL 1,614 1,616 1,656 (42) -3 Note: 2013 Dependable capacity as of May 2013 Dependable capacity may vary based on the operation of each generating plant Commercial Operation of 8 MW Cabulig HEP Expansion of Crystal Sugar Biomass supplying to the grid, from 7 MW to 10 MW starting May Dependable capacity for Solar based on the capacity factor of the power plant

10 COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS Mindanao Grid Committed Power s, 580 MW Name of the Proponent Location Rated Capacity (MW) Cost (Php Billion) Target Commissioning 2 X 150 MW Coal-Fired Therma South Energy Therma South Inc. Brgy. Binugao, Toril, Davao City and Brgy. Inawayan, Sta. Cruz, Davao Del Sur March X 100 MW Southern Mindanao Coal Fired Power Station Sarangani Energy Corporation Brgy, Kamanga, Maasim, Sarangani February MW Diesel Power Plant Mapalad Energy Generating Corporation 15 MW HFO Peaking Plant EEI Power Corporation Mapalad, Dalipuga, Iligan City Brgy. Magdum, Tagum City, Davao Del Norte October August 2013 Mindanao 3 Geothermal Energy Development Corporation Kidapawan, North Cotabato June 2016 TOTAL List of Committed Power s as of July 2013

11 INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS Mindanao Grid Indicative Power s, MW Name of the Proponent Location ZAM 100 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Coal-Fired Power Station San Ramon Power Inc. Sitio San Ramon, Bgry. Talisayan, Zamboanga City Rated Capacity Target Commissioning (MW) December 2015 Davao del Norte 20 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed Biomass- FDC Utilities, Inc. Maco, Davao del Norte 20.0 March 2015 Coal Fired Thermal Power Plant 300 MW SMC Davao Power Plant Phase I San Miguel Consolidated Power Corporation Brgy. Culaman, Malita, Davao del Sur MW - Oct MW - March 2016 Sibuguey Power Plant Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC-EC) Sibugay, Zamboanga September X 135 MW FDC-Misamis Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) Coal-Fired Power Plant FDC Utilities, Inc. Phividec Industrial Estate, Villanueva, Misamis Oriental September MW SMC Davao Power Plant Phase II San Miguel Consolidated Power Corporation Brgy. Culaman, Malita, Davao del Sur December MW SMC Davao Power Plant Phase III San Miguel Consolidated Power Corporation Brgy. Culaman, Malita, Davao del Sur MW - Dec MW - Dec x135 MW PsagCorp Coal-fired Power Plant GN Power Kauswagan, Lanao del Norte December 2017 TOTAL COAL 2,155.0 List of Indicative Power s as of July 2013

12 INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS Mindanao Grid Indicative Power s, MW Name of the Proponent Location Tagoloan Hydropower 12 MW Tamugan Hydropower Bubunawan Hydroelectric Power Cabadbaran Hydroelectric Power Puyo Hydroelectric Power Tumalaong Hydroelectric Power Culaman Hydroelectric Power Limbatangon Hydroelectric Power Tudaya 1 Hydroelectric Power Tudaya 2 Hydroelectric Power First Gen Mindanao Hydropower Corp. Hedcor First Gen Mindanao Hydropower Corp. First Gen Mindanao Hydropower Corp. First Gen Mindanao Hydropower Corp. First Gen Mindanao Hydropower Corp. Oriental Energy and Power Generation Corporation Turbines Resource & Development Corp. Impasugong & Sumilao, Bukidnon Baguio District, Davao City Baungon and Libona, Bukidnon Cabadbaran, Agusan del Norte Jabonga, Agusan del Norte Rated Capacity (MW) Target Commissioning 20.0 October July October December July 2015 Baungon, Bukidnon 8.0 October 2015 Manolo Fortich, Bukidnon 10.0 June 2018 Cagayan de Oro City, Misamis Occidental 6.0 January 2017 Hedcor Sibulan, Inc. Sta. Cruz, Davao del Sur 6.6 TBA Hedcor Tudaya, Inc. Sta. Cruz, Davao del Sur 7.0 October 2015 TOTAL HYDRO List of Indicative Power s as of July 2013

13 INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS Mindanao Grid Indicative Power s, MW Name of the Darong Solar Photovoltaic Power Proponent PhilNew Energy Inc. Location Rated Capacity (MW) Sta. Cruz, Davao del Sur 35.0 TOTAL SOLAR MW Camiguin Island Wind Power Energy Development Corporation Camiguin 5.0 TOTAL WIND 5.0 Bukidnon Biomass Power Target Commissioning September 2015 (Subject to FIT) September 2015 (subject to FIT approval) Green Power Bukidnon Philippines, Inc. Maramag, Bukidnon 35.0 September 2013 TOTAL BIOMASS 35.0 List of Indicative Power s as of July 2013

14 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION

15 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION Iligan Diesel Power Plant (IDPP) Currently running at 60-MW and scheduled to be in full operations by October 2013 at 98 MW

16 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION Interruptible Load Program (ILP) Petition of Davao Light for Rules change on cost recovery approved by ERC 50 possible participants with a total applied load of MW from 7 DUs that have approved ERC application for ILP implementation Interim Mindanao Electricity Market (IMEM) Issuance of DCs on January 2013 directing PEMC to develop and implement an IMEM and on June 2013 promulgating the IMEM rules Trial operation from 26 August to 25 September 2013 Target commercial operations by 26 September 2013

17 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION Modular Genset Program Fastest way to deploy the needed generating capacity in the island until new capacities come online by 2015 NEA is directed to expedite program implementation EO 137 promulgated and its IRR already signed

18 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION Visayas-Mindanao Interconnection FS was completed in March The target project completion is by 2018

19 UPDATES ON MINDANAO POWER SITUATION Balo-I Flood Control DPWH to re-file for NEDA-ICC approval of the project This will maximize the output of Agus 1 and 2 HEPs and address flooding in Balo-I Plain Agus 6 Units 1 & 2 Uprating PSALM Board has approved and confirmed the project implementation Realignment of budget from NPC-OMA MOOE to PSALM Indicative bidding is by 3rd quarter while awarding is by 4th quarter Privatization of Agus-Pulangi Complexes For further discussion with JCPC

20 END OF PRESENTATION 2013 to 2020 Supply-Demand Outlook and Updates on Mindanao Power Situation 2013 Mindanao Business Conference SMX Convention Center, SM Lanang Premiere, Davao City 9 August 2013 Sec. Carlos Jericho L. Petilla Department of Energy