Role of Mobility for Sustainable Society

Transcription

1 Workshop on Mobility Role of Mobility for Sustainable Society Akimasa Sumi Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science(IR3S) Transdisciplinary Initiative for Global Sustainability (TIGS) The University of Tokyo

2 Contents -(1) Background -Why is Sustainability Science necessary? -(2) Research necessary today? -(3) Research challenges! -Research that Integrates the Three Societies 2

3 Background(1) IPCC 4th Assessment Report( ) and Nobel Prize Discussion about cause is over. Age of Action Co-benefit

4 Background(2) Global Political Processes G8 Summits 2007 Heiligendum : 2008 G8 Hokkaido Tooyako Summit G8 University Summit (Japan) : Climate Change and Sustainability UNDP Human Development Report 2007/ Combating climate change demands that we place ecological imperatives at the heart of economics.

5 Action is required! Turning Point A whole spectrum of issues should be considered! Structuring issues and actions! More accurate prediction and assessment of impacts due to actions is inevitable! Establish a concept of evaluation!

6 Linkages among three systems Low-Carbon Society Social system Politics Economy Industry Technology Global and natural system Global warming Climate system Energy and Resources Ecosystem Complex Problem Mass production, consumption, destruction infectious diseases natural disaster Resource-circulating society Human Security Human system Security/Safety Lifestyle Health Norms and values 6

7 Transdisciplinary approach Disaster prediction Physics, Chemistry, Biology Ecology, Earth Sc Environment tax 2 Co Awareness for disaster prevention Global system Ethics Religious St. Medical Sc. Psychology Philosophy Law, Policy Sc. Economics Sociology Management Social system Human system Amount of Lifestyles Waste Sustainability Science fuses Natural and Social Sciences with indicators 7

8 Example:Controversy of Biofuel Benefits - Renewable Energy - Carbon Neutral - Prevention of Air Pollution - Energy Security - Development of Rural Area Criticism - Real GHGs Reduction (LCA)? - Shortage of Food Supply and Rising Price - Water Shortage, Water Pollution - Tropical Forest Destruction Greenpeace 8

9 Increase of BioFuel Production Need for Comprehensive and Interdisciplinary Approach Global Issue Increase Biofuel Production Disruption of Ecosystem Impacts on Food Supply Destroying Forest and other Ecosystems Increase Food Production Disruption of Ecosystem New North-South Issue Biofuel-producers importing biofuel Risking Food Supply Destroying Ecosystems Exacerbate poverty and hunger in developing countries

10 2. Necessary research for mobility!

11 Role of Mobility(1) Define a spatial-scale and a temporalscale Globalization is due to development of transportation method and conservation technology For economy, transportation cost is very important!

12 Role of Mobility(2) Transportation of energy, materials and information is an artery(red) of our society. Transportation of wastes is a vein(blue) of our society. Both are critical

13 Innovation about components! We tend to concentrate in parts, such as car,train, ship,airplane and so on.

14 Total system of transportation is necessary and critical!

15 What is moving? What are we carrying? People Materials Energy Information Usually, communication is in charge for information, but? Z.B., a book!

16 Way of thinking is necessary! System or Totality Pathway and Backcasting Value or evaluation method Many stake-holders and trade-off.

17 Ultra-Long Term Projection and Scenario Forecasting VS. Backcasting Forecasting (BaU) Now Based on the dominant trends that have already contributed to current environmental problems Passive Integrated Assessment model Is necessary! Backcasting Involving working backwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures would be required to 17 reach that point. Proactive

18 Low Carbon Society Scenarios : Backcasting Model Society in 2000 Economic Activities CO2 policy intervention policy intervention Change in CO2 emission Backcasting Model In order to achieve Low Carbon Society in 2050, from pre-evaluated evaluated policy intervention menu, determine Which policy When How much Menu of Policy Intervention Should be introduced. policy intervention policy intervention Vision of Society in 2050 Economic Activities CO2 Economic Activities CO2 BaU Emission Target Low Carbon Society 18

19 Evaluation criteria Evaluation What is criteria? Cost performance and Social welfare Total thinking is necessary!

20 3.Research challenges Structuring Knowledge Networking Forecasting and Backcasting Approach Integration of Three Societies Measures for Sustainable Society Action!

21 Integration of Three Societies CO2 reduction Stabilization of GHG CO2 emission mass consumption of fossil fuel Research focus on the linkages between Low carbon society, Sound material-cycle society and Society in harmony with nature Low carbon society towards the sustainable society Society in Harmony with nature Sound Materialcycle society reduce, reuse, recycle Depletion of resources pollution mass production Secure biodiversity 21

22 Hiramatsu,A.,N.Mimura and A.Sumi,2008: A mapping of global warming research based on IPCC AR4, Sustainable Sciences,3. Journal publication

23 How to make action? Networking Globalization and Diversity Network of Networks Outreach, Relationship to Politics!?

24 Univ. Knowledge Innovation for Global Sustainability To link various research networks: Network of Networks (NNs) Global Sustainability Society with diversity Resourcecirculating society Cultural diversity Low carbon society Integrated Knowledge Nature-coexistent society Poverty alleviation and human security dialogue support support Developed Countries G8 G8 nations, nations, WEF, WEF, Developing countries Education, Human Resources Development Social change Policy recommendation

25 UT Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S) Research Network Alliance for Sustainability Science 25

26 Establishing Strategy for for Global Sustainability in in the the st st Century through collaboration amongst international research networks Research networks for Sustainability Science Tyndall Tyndall Centre Centre Lead: Lead: East East Anglia Anglia University University CIRPS CIRPS Lead: Lead: Rome Rome University University SRC SRC Lead: Lead: Stockholm Stockholm University University GLP GLP Lead: Lead: Copenhagen Copenhagen University University AAAS AAAS Lead: Lead: Harvard Harvard University University UT IR3S Management HQ HQ Network Network of of networks networks for for Sustainability Sustainability Science Science Promotion Promotion Office Office Flagship Flagship projects projects Todai, Todai, Kyoto, Kyoto, Osaka, Osaka, Hokkaido, Hokkaido, Ibaraki Ibaraki universities universities Long-term scenario scenario for for sustainable society society Todai, Todai, NIES NIES Contributions to to G8,CBD,FCCC,, etc etc Collaboration in Asia United United Nations Nations University Universities/institutes Universities/institutes in in China China Universities/institutes Universities/institutes in in India India Universities/institutes Universities/institutes in in Southeast Southeast Asia Asia

27 Thank you 27