Solrico global solar research network

Transcription

1 Solrico global solar research network focusing on the solar thermal sector

2 CHINA: TRENDS IN THE LARGEST SOLAR THERMAL MARKET WORLDWIDE

3 Writing news for

4 Visiting the major manufacturers in China beginning 2012

5 Interview with Mr Hongzhi Cheng, head of the Sun s Vision

6 Survey for the world map of solar thermal industry

7 Long-term trend of the Current Business ISOL Index 60 China 40 Worldwide 20 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012 Germany Analyses of the current and future business situation on the country level based on the ISOL Index

8 1. TREND: CONSOLIDATION IN THE INDUSTRY

9 1. Trend: Consolidation of the industry The Sun s Vision assumes a total number of 2,800 companies in the solar thermal industry, of which 1,600 are solar water assembly companies and 1,200 are suppliers that produce and deliver the parts. 100 enterprises have standardisedthe way they assemble solar water heaters. The market share of these popular brand products has increased from less than 40 % to 70 % in recent years. The larger companies are growing faster than the market. Reasons: tight sales network and access to large-scale projects market. 1,000 companies have closed their doors in the last two years (YinbinLi, Deputy General Manager at Linuo Paradigma

10 Tight sales network: 50,000 solar shops The Sun s Vision assumes a total number of 50,000 solar shops in China, of which 20,000 are franchise business which deal with only one brand one of the four top solar water heater manufacturers: HiminSolar, SunrainGroup, SangleSolar or LinuoParadigma. The majority of the shops sell more than one brand of solar energy equipment. Solar shop specifics: economically independent, use logo and marketing material of the system supply, end consumer prices and discounts are defined by the supplier, installation is included in the fixed gross prices shown on the systems.

11 1. Trend: Consolidation of the industry Slowdown in the growth: The growth rate 2009/2010 (17 %) and the growth rate 2010/2011 (16 %) is halved compared to the previous years with annual growth rates of 30 % and more due to slowdown in the building sector because of government restrictions and a certain saturation in the rural areas. The glass tubing market was flat in 2010 and 2011, confirms YinbinLi, Deputy General Manager of Linuo Paradigma, which is part of the Linuo Group the biggest raw glass tubing manufacturer in China (60 % market share). Overlapping effects can cause the flat demand at Linuo: Slowdown in the market as well as vertical integration of the larger solar thermal system manufacturers.

12 Vertical integration: Raw glass tubing(photos: Linuo) Quartz Sand (Silicon Dioxid) Melting oven: Capacity 32 tons per day SunrainGroup is abouttostartproducingrawglasstubingin thefactoryin Luoyang, Henan, large playerwith4.68 millionm 2 vacuumtubecollectorareain 2010 TianpuSolar is abouttobuiltupa glasstubingfactoryin Wuhan, Hubei HiminSolar hasa cooperationwitha rawglasstubingmanufacturerthatrunsa factorynexttothevacuumtubemanufacturingunitin Dezhou, Shandong.

13 Vertical integration: Raw glass tubing(photos: Linuo) Glass production with gravity Glass pulling track: the faster you pull the thinner thediameteroftherawglasstube

14 2. TREND: SYSTEMS IN THEBALCONY FAST GROWING SEGMENT

15 Systems in the balcony(linuo Paradigma) Linuo Paradigma / Himindo not see safety problems to use vacuum tube collectors up to the 30 th floor and more in front of the balcony railing.

16 System in the balcony(himin) Intersolar Euroe 2012

17 System in the balcony(sunrain) Flat plate or vacuum tube collectors in the facade is more a question of aesthetics than of safety. Flat-platecollectors in the façade are more beautiful than vacuum tubes, according to building designers, Chen Liang, Marketing Planner at SunrainGroup

18 2. Trend: Systems in the balcony(linuo Paradigma) Fast growing segment: LinuoNew Materials produced 60,000 tanks for balcony systems in 2011 and expect to double this rate this year. Technical specification: Tank-in-tank system with a enambledinner tank, closed solar loop pressure system (3 bars), double-glass vacuum tubes with heat pipes and an electric element Balconies systems in the shops show end consumer gross system prices RMB 5000 to 6000 = EUR 625 to 750 (more than double the price of a pressurelessthermosiphonsystem)

19 3. TREND: ENGINEERINGPROJECTS-LARGE POTENTIAL OF GROWTH

20 3. Trend: Engineering projects- large potential of growth Large-scale engineering projects for nonresidential clients; 15% Engineering projects for residential (mostly newbuilt in urban areas); 25% Rural retrofit market for residential; 60% ISOL Navigator

21 3. Trend: Engineering projects- large potential of growth Potential of Growth The rural market segment is currently flat or decreasing according to the large manufacturers. The rural incentive programmeruns out this year (no big impact since it covers only 5 % of the market) HongzhiCheng estimates the long-term potential turnover in the rural area to around RMB 600 million factor 9 to the turnover 2011 (RMB 57 billion). HongzhiCheng estimates the long-term potential turnover in the engineering segments (residential and non-residential) to even thousands of billions RMB compared to the turnover in 2011 (RMB 38 million) The engineeringsegmenthasa large potential ofgrowth, especially because the government focuses a lot of pushing this segment

22 3. Trend: Engineering projects- large potential of growth China (54) What is the fastest-growing segment in your national market? 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Single-family houses Multi-family houses Hotels/Tourism Industrial process heat Public sector Whichtype ofsolar thermal systemehasthefastest growthin China? China (54) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Thermosiphon Pumped systems Combi systems Roof integration Solar plus heat pump

23 3. Trend: Engineering projects- large potential of growth Governmental support / restrictions (According to Hongzhi Cheng) A fair number of rural cities support solar thermal systems on welfare and public institutions, such as old people s homes, orphanages or public swimming pools, with an investment subsidy of 30 %. Renewable Energy Demonstration Cities Programmesupports larger solar thermal installations in certain cities. Initiated by the MinistryofConstruction (MoHURD)100 cities will be chosen between 2011 and 2015 and will receive RMB 50 to 80 million for demonstration projects (all renewable technologies). Because the central government has set a number of restrictions for industries in terms of energy-and emission-saving, these clients will come to accept solar thermal more and more. For example Jiangsu province has already seen more than ten solar pre-heating installations in dye and textile factories over the last two years with the help of energy contracting. Solar bye-laws in large municipalities: Builders do not receive a building permission unless the demonstrate that they have integrated solar hot water in the new-built housing (residential, hotels, restaurants, sport clubs )

24 4. TREND: COST EFFECTIVE NON-PRESSURISED LARGE-SCALE SOLAR SYSTEMS

25 4. Trend: Cost effective non-pressurised solar systems Satisfiedsolar client: Director(left) ofthesheraton in Jinan withtwo300 m 2 fields on the roof of the hotel(linuo Paradigma) Verycost-effectivesystemwitha payback-time of2.5 years(installed2009)

26 4. Trend: Cost effective non-pressurised solar systems State-of the art large-scale engineering projects (first field of Sheraton): Non-pressurized solar circuit with 600 m 2 of water filled tubes (58 mm) and open cold and hot water tanks under the roof Very cost effective system with tubes that are identical to the residential mass market Simple controlling: the pump in the solar circuit stops, if the tank temperature reaches 75 C Daily maintenance by the technical staff of the hotel. If a tube burst, the pump must be stopped by hand, the whole field must be drained until the tube is replaced Booster pumps and back-up system in the cellar of the hotel to supply pressurized hot water in the building (40 % solar fraction)

27 4. Trend: Cost effective non-pressurised solar systems Improvements in the second field of the Sheraton Hotel: Parts of the field can be cut off in case of breakage of a tube Pressure sensors control reach subfield to identify breakage automatically and cut off the field The advantages: reducing safety risks of hot boiling water dropping down, when a tube breaks and reducing maintenance costs.

28 4. Trend: Cost effective non-pressurised solar systems Conclusion: Open loop systems will stay the technical choice for most engineering projects, however with improved controlling options for example shut down sub-fields of the collector area in case of pressure losses and heat metering The major argument are the low costs: pressurized heat pipe collector fields are 30 to 50 % more expensive according to the industry, large-size pressurized tanks are up to 10 times more expensive than open tanks

29 More news from China on the website in theisol Navigator studies, whicharepublishedtwicea yearby solricoin June and in Decemberfocusingon themarket development in 16 key solar thermal markets worldwide or personally from Bärbel Epp,