An emerging challenge for WMO

Transcription

1 WMO Congress Side Event 30 May 2011 at to Salle 6 International Conference Centre of Geneva (CICG) An emerging challenge for WMO: Supporting Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies with Observations, Modeling, and Analysis An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

2 Ensuring systematic observations An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler Time History of atmospheric CO 2 22,174 Viewers as of Sunday v=h2mzycblxs4 WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

3 Why this is an urgent issue The primary cause of climate change and ocean acidification is the increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, predominantly carbon dioxide Three reasons for having more and better information Climate feedbacks Success of GHG management Ocean Acidification An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

4 Climate Feedbacks Half of the CO 2 emitted by fossil fuel burning is absorbed by the ocean and biosphere. Will this continue? Thawing permafrost has the potential to release huge amounts of CO 2 and methane. An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

5 Greenhouse Gas Management What works? How well does it work? An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

6 Ocean Acidification Regardless of climate change, the ocean becomes increasingly acidic with rising CO 2 in the atmosphere. An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

7 Why Regional Scale Information? Societies are advancing efforts to reduce CO 2 emissions now Mitigation efforts are diverse and vary by nation, region, & emission sector The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, and the number of GHGs make tracking these efforts challenging, but surmountable Large scale emission reduction approaches require independent, scientific monitoring to support verification and policy decisions An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva 7 May 30, 2011

8 For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty... More Observations (x 10?) Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial Satellites Improved Instrumentation QA/QC, Data Management Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints Transport ( 10?) Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis Prediction Enhanced Computing Capacity An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

9 One Systems Approach January (net CO 2 emission) Carbon Weather CarbonTracker July (net CO 2 uptake) Long term Observations An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

10 Satellites Carbon Weather CarbonTracker TCCON Current Network Earth Networks An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

11 Next presentations Increasing ground based observations Bob Marshall, CEO, Earth Networks Developing satellite capability Dr. David Crisp, OCO Project Mgr, NASA/JPL Integration and analysis of diverse data Dr. Frederic Chevallier, Leader, Inversion Assimilation Teledetection team of LSCE Q&A An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

12 Thank you all for coming! An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011

13 WMO Congress GHG Side Event Robert S. Marshall Founder & CEO

14 More Observations Better Science Better Science More Informed Policy

15 Earth Networks Company Overview Build & Operate Large Scale Environmental Observation Networks Weather, Lightning, Greenhouse Gas Networks Government, Enterprise and Consumer Solutions for Observing, Informing and Warning

16 NOAA Network KEY Earth Networks NWS

17 NOAA + Earth Networks KEY Earth Networks NWS

18 Global > Regional > Local Scales KEY Earth Networks NWS

19 Regional/Local Networks Around the Globe!

20 Deploy and Operate Global Greenhouse Gas Observation Network $25M, 5 year investment to install & operate 100 advanced GHG systems ~50 in U.S., ~25 in Europe, ~25 around remaining continents Measure CO2 (carbon dioxide) & CH4 (methane)

21 Center For Environmental Research Dr. Ralph Keeling Dr. Ray Weiss Scripps Focus: System Design Network Design Calibration and Quality Control Cutting Edge Research

22 Ensuring Data Quality Dual Air Calibration Tanks from NOAA (WMO Standard) Precision flow/pressure sensors Precision valves

23 GHG Network Vision Advance & Accelerate Climate Science Compliment Existing Networks Independent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) for global, regional and local GHG policy Continued education of the public on climate change and the role of GHG s Cultivate public private partnerships to further develop and disseminate knowledge

24 Carbon Weather : Educating the Public CO2 Above Global Mean

25 Public Private Partnerships NMHS s

26 Join the Network! Contact: Jeremy Usher:

27 Supporting Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies with Observations, Modeling, and Analysis Measuring Atmospheric CO 2 from Space David Crisp, OCO 2 2 Science Lead Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology 31 May 2011 Copyright 2011 California 27 Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

28 Global Measurements from Space are Essential for Monitoring CO 2 To limit the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide buildup, we must Control emissions associated with human activities Understand & exploit natural processes that absorb carbon dioxide We cannot manage what we cannot measure Plumes from medium sized power plants (4 MtC/yr) elevate X CO2 levels by ~2 ppm for 10 s of km downwind [Yang and Fung, 2010]. These variations are superimposed on a background of CO 2 weather with strong gradients (>10 ppm) organized along synoptic systems. 28

29 Observing CO2 from Space Ground based measurements greater precision and sensitivity to CO2 near the surface, where sources and sinks are located. Space based measurements improve spatial coverage & resolution. Source/Sink models assimilate space an ground based data to provide global insight into CO2 sources and sinks 29

30 High precision is Essential for Monitoring CO 2 Sources and Sinks from Space CO 2 sources and sinks must be inferred from small spatial variations in the (387 ±5 ppm) background CO 2 distribution Largest variations near surface Space based NIR observations constrain column averaged CO 2, X CO2 Small spatial gradients in X CO2 verified by pole topole aircraft data [Wofsy et al. 2010]

31 Spatial Resolution and Sampling A Small Footprint: Increases sensitivity to CO 2 point sources The minimum measureable CO 2 flux is inversely proportional to footprint size Increases probability of recording cloud free soundings in partially cloudy regions Reduces biases over rough topography High Sampling Rate: Soundings can be averaged along the track to reduce single sounding random errors OCO Nadir OCO Glint GOSAT 31

32 Coverage: Obtaining Precise Measurements over Oceans as well as Continents The ocean covers 70% of the Earth and absorb/emit 10 times more CO 2 than all human activities combined Coverage of the oceans is essential to minimize errors from CO 2 transport in and out of the observed domain 3 5 ppm Near IR solar measurements of CO 2 over the ocean are challenging Typical nadir reflectances: 0.5 to 1% Most of the sunlight is reflected into a narrow range of angles, producing the familiar glint spot Glint and nadir measurements can be combined to optimize sensitivity over both oceans and continents 32 <0.4 ppm OCO single sounding random errors for nadir and glint [Baker et al. ACPD, 2008].

33 Validating Space based X CO2 against the Ground Based Standard: TCCON 447 m WLEF Tower Park Falls, WI FTS The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) provides a transfer standard between ground and spacebased measurements TCCON measures the absorption of direct sunlight by CO 2 and O 2 in the same spectral regions used by OCO 2. Validated against aircraft measurements OCO 2 will acquire thousands of X CO2 soundings over TCCON stations on a single overpass. 33

34 Thermal Infrared Observations of CO 2 Thermal IR observations (AIRS, TES, IASI) measure CO 2 in the middle troposphere Aqua AIRS Metop IASI Provide global maps of CO 2 at altitudes where it is most effective as a greenhouse gas AIRS July 2003 CO2 378 ppm Provide limited information about surface sources and sinks of CO 2 AIRS JULY 2008 CO2 (ppm) 388 ppm 34

35 Remote Sensing of CO 2 using Reflected Sunlight SCIAMACHY (2002) The pioneer Demonstrated capability, but limited sensitivity (3 6 ppm), large footprint (18,000 km 2 ) and lack of ocean coverage limited impact GOSAT (2009) Optimized for spectral and spatial coverage Collects 10,000 soundings every day over land and ocean 10 15% are sufficiently cloud free for CO 2 and CH 4 retrievals 3 4 ppm (1%) precision: adequate to detect strong sources OCO 2 (2013) Optimized for high sensitivity and spatial resolution Collects up to 10 6 measurements each day over a narrow swath Smaller footprint ensures that >20% all soundings are cloud free 1 ppm (0.3%) precision adequate to detect weak sources & sinks CarbonSat (2018) The next step Combines high precision and resolution of OCO with a broad swath to improve coverage of sunlit hemisphere on weekly time scales 35

36 Spin offs: Surface Pressure Measurements OCO 2 will collect 0.5 to 1 million soundings over the sunlit hemisphere each day Over 100,000 of these soundings were expected to be sufficiently cloud free to enable surface pressure (and X CO2 ) retrievals For each X CO2 retrieval, the O 2 A Band measurement yields a surface pressure retrieval, with typical accuracies of ± 1 hpa OCO 2 surface pressure measurements can be combined with AIRS temperature and moisture measurements in meteorological data assimilation models to assess their impact on weather forecasts. Largest impacts expected in data sparse regions oceans, tropics OCO 2 would demonstrate this capability, but is not (currently) designed to deliver measurements on NWP time scales (2.75 hr) 36

37 Conclusions Just as for weather forecasting, a coordinated global network of surface and space based CO 2 monitoring systems as well as sophisticated models that can assimilate these data are needed to provide insight into the processes controlling atmospheric CO 2 37

38 Mapping CO 2 sources and sinks from atmospheric observations Frédéric Chevallier Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and the Environment (LSCE) France

39 How well do we know CO 2 in the atmosphere? Test models against observations Oct. Nov HIPPO II aircraft campaign Pole to pole slice of the atmosphere Quantity: dry air mole fraction of CO 2 Unit = parts per million (ppm) HIPPO observations HIPPO observations courtesy from S. Wofsy (Harvard Univ.)

40 How well do we know CO 2 in the atmosphere? Test models against observations Oct. Nov HIPPO II aircraft campaign Pole to pole slice of the atmosphere Quantity: dry air mole fraction of CO 2 Unit = parts per million (ppm) LMDZ model simulation HIPPO observations HIPPO observations courtesy from S. Wofsy (Harvard Univ.)

41 How well do we know CO 2 in the atmosphere? Model errors of a few ppm (< 1%) caused by Uncertainty in CO 2 surface fluxes (usually dominant) Uncertainty in atmospheric transport CO 2 surface fluxes HIPPO observations

42 Mapping carbon sources and sinks Infer carbon surface fluxes from their measured impact on carbon concentrations Technology borrowed from NWP data assimilation systems CO 2 surface fluxes HIPPO observations

43 Re analyzing two decades of surface air sample measurements One of several current efforts in the scientific community (Chevallier et al. 2010) station records from the Global Atmospheric Watch programme 40 days of computation on 8 CPUs Net natural CO 2 fluxes with uncertainty aggregated in large land regions (a + sign indicates outgassing)

44 Re analyzing two decades of surface air sample measurements One of several current efforts in the scientific community (Chevallier et al. 2010) station records from the Global Atmospheric Watch programme 40 days of computation on 8 CPUs Net natural CO 2 fluxes with uncertainty aggregated in large land regions (a + sign indicates outgassing)

45 Exploiting space borne observations GOSAT GOSAT satellite (JAXA NIES MoE, Japan) dedicated to the observations of CO 2 and CH 4 Launched in January 2009 Large number of column observations with low precision

46 Exploiting space borne observations GOSAT GOSAT satellite (JAXA NIES MoE, Japan) dedicated to the observations of CO 2 and CH 4 Launched in January 2009 Large number of column observations with low precision Flux inversion for year 2010 Use GOSAT X CO2 retrieved by NASA s ACOS project Evaluation against surface measurements from the GAW RAMCES air sampling network (15 stations) RAMCES observations courtesy from M. Ramonet (LSCE)

47 GOSAT based CO 2 flux inversion for year 2010 Evaluation against flux inversion for years from the surface network aggregated in 11 large land regions

48 Conclusions Current CO 2 monitoring network: ~ 200 GAW surface and profiling stations + 1 satellite Allows estimating carbon budgets at continental scale Results at smaller scales useful for research only Does not respond to the need of regional carbon budgets Monitor and verify The gap between research oriented products and policyrelevant products can only be filled by dramatically extending the monitoring capability At the surface and from space Need WMO to stimulate the international effort and coordinate it

49 Satellites Carbon Weather CarbonTracker TCCON Current Network Earth Networks An emerging challenge for WMO JH Butler WMO Congress, Geneva May 30, 2011