Climate Change in the Urban Environment

Transcription

1 Climate Change in the Urban Environment Essential Steps to Enabling Resiliency Christine Callihoo, MSc, RPP, Sr. Community Resilience Planner SFU Faculty of Environment's Professional Programs and Partnerships

2 Agenda : Today s Journey 1) Introduction Why we are here and what today s journey will provide 2) Laying the Foundation: i) Climate change projections ii) Shared language (definitions) 3) Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability: Overview 4) Community Resilience Action Planning 5) Foundations & Storytelling 6) Resources

3 Metro Vancouver Climate Change Projections: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s

4 Metro Vancouver Climate Change Projections: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s The 2020s projections indicate that there will be the following: increase in annual temperature (+1 o C) overall annual increase in level of precipitation (+4%) fluctuations in the seasonal precipitation norms substantial decrease in annual snowfall substantial increase in number of frost-free days (+13 days) The 2050s projections indicate that there will be the following: increase in annual temperature (+1.7 o C) overall annual increase in level of precipitation (+7%) fluctuations in the seasonal precipitation norms significant decrease in annual snowfall significant increase in number of frost-free days (+22 days) The 2080s projections indicate that there will be the following: increase in annual temperature (+2.7 o C) overall annual increase in level of precipitation (+8%) fluctuations in the seasonal precipitation norms significant decrease in annual snowfall significant increase in number of frost-free days (+33 days)

5 The Metro Vancouver Region can expect changes. at a broad level as follows: warmer temperatures, a decrease in snowpack, longer dry spells in summer months, more precipitation in fall, winter, and spring, and, more intense extreme events.

6 Shared Language (definitions)

7 Resilience: IPCC 2014 Summary Report The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation The definition links resilience with the capacity to adapt, where adaptive capacity refers to the resilience that reflects learning, flexibility to experiment and adopt novel solutions, and the development of a generalized response to broad classes of challenges OKAY.so for urban/community resilience..

8 What is Urban / Community Resilience? Urban / community resilience is the sustained ability of a community to utilize available resources to respond to, withstand, and recover from adverse situations while continuing to deliver important community services.

9 Shared Language (definitions) Community assets are the people, structures, facilities, and systems that have value to the community. Hazards are natural processes, such as tornados, floods and earthquakes. They are a source of harm or difficulty created by a meteorological, environmental, or geological event. Some are known, some can only be speculated upon based on past events recorded in the landscape, oral history or archaeological records.

10 Shared Language (definitions) Impact is the consequences or effects of a hazard on the community and its assets. Risk is the potential for damage, loss, or other impacts created by the interaction of natural hazards with community assets. Risk assessment is a product or process that collects information and assigns values to risks for the purpose of informing priorities, developing or comparing courses of action, and informing decision making. Vulnerability are the characteristics of community assets that make them susceptible to damage from a given hazard.

11 Shared Language (definitions) With the changing climate, natural hazards may increase in frequency, duration and level of impact. The exposure of people, property and other community assets (systems) to natural hazards can result in disasters, depending on the impacts. The type and severity of impacts are based on the extent of the hazard and the vulnerability of the community s assets, as well as the community s ability to mitigate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from events; a community s level of resiliency.

12 The Urban / Community Resiliency is a Significant Challenge Aging Infrastructure Urban Growth Changing Climate

13 Insurance Bureau of Canada 2011: $1.7B 2013: $3.2B 2016: $4.9B 2017: $7.3B

14 Green and climate-friendly technology is important but insufficient to make societies resilient

15 Climate Resilience In the long run it is nearly always less challenging and less expensive to build resilience into planning and design prior to development rather than as a response to a major event. But how do we do this?

16 Climate Resiliency Make resilience part of planning, design and development Building resilience in typically costs much less than incorporating resilience later Pay attention to local risks and hazards Adopt a resilience scorecard and rating system Calculate potential costs Incorporate risk assessments and adaptation strategies into capital budgets at concept stage Identify and protect critical elements Take a layered approach in applying adaptation strategies (single solutions seldom address all threats)

17 Questions with Resilience In Mind Have we incorporated climate projections into all aspects of our planning and implementation? Have we considered natural assets and the ecosystem services provided in our planning and implementation? Have we ensured service redundancies for critical services in our planning and implementation?

18 Keep in mind human nature and change..

19 Planning Process Step 1: Initiate the process / project Step 2: Articulate and assess the baseline (incl. trends and projections) Step 3: Identify and prioritize hazards, risks, vulnerabilities and opportunities Step 4: Develop and prioritize resilience strategies Step 5: Finalize and share the plan Step 6: Implement the plan Step 7: Monitor, evaluate and adjust (ongoing)

20 Hazard, Risk & Vulnerability Risk (what are the potential impacts over time?) Consequence (what are the impacts?) Hazard (where and how big if the event?) Vulnerability (what is the susceptibility of exposed elements?) Likelihood (what is the chance it will occur?) Exposure (what is in the way of the hazard?)

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24 Community Resilience Action Planning Community Resilience Action Plan* Rule #1: Do no harm. Rule #2: Work with the community to create the action plan, based upon the community resilience assessment Question Details Detailed Response What needs to be done? Who should do what and when? With what resources? When can it be done? What are the expected results? When will the expected results be delivered? Is there a contingency plan? * Adapted from Post Carbon Institute's 'Think Resilience Guided Course' with Richard Heinberg

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26 Community Capacity Assessment

27 ? Many tools available to enable urban/community resiliency +

28 Community Resilience Building

29 Community Resilience Building #1 A. Prepare 1) Establish working group with goals, terms of reference, etc 2) Communicate and engage 3) Prepare materials, etc

30 Community Resilience Building #2 B. Characterize Hazards 1) Identify past, current and future impacts 2) Determine the highest priority hazards

31 Community Resilience Building #3 C. Identify Community Vulnerabilities and Strengths 1) Identify infrastructural vulnerabilities and strengths 2) Identify societal vulnerabilities and strengths 3) Identify environmental vulnerabilities and strengths

32 Community Resilience Building #4 D. Identify and Prioritize Community Actions 1) Identify and prioritize infrastructural actions 2) Identify and prioritize societal actions 3) Identify and prioritize environmental actions

33 Community Resilience Building #5 E. Determine the Overall Priority Actions 1) Identify highest priority actions 2) Further define urgency and timing

34 Community Resilience Building #6 F. Pull It All Together 1) Generate final workshop ACTION PLAN

35 Community Resilience Building #7 G. Implement the ACTION PLAN 1) Communicate and engage 2) Secure additional data and information 3) Ongoing monitoring, evaluation and adaptation

36 Community Resilience Building Flex the Muscle Group 1: Geophysical Hazard Landslides (ie. in North Vancouver) Group 2: Hydrological Hazard Floods Overland flooding Group 3: Meteorological Hazard Extreme storms - Wind Others: Biological hazard: disease or insect outbreaks Technological or man-made hazards: environmental degradation, emergencies/conflicts, displaced populations, industrial accidents and transport accidents

37 Part Two

38 Essential Steps to Enabling Resiliency Include: 1) Foundations for Building Community Resilience 2) Tell the Story

39 Six Foundations for Building Community Resilience The foundations support building community resilience as an ongoing process. 1.People. The power to envision the future of the community and build its resilience resides with community members. 2.Systems thinking. Systems thinking is essential for understanding the complex, interrelated crises now unfolding and what they mean for our similarly complex communities. 3.Adaptability. A community that adapts to change is resilient. Because communities and the challenges we face are dynamic, adaptation is an ongoing process. 4.Transformability. Some challenges are so big that it s not possible for the community to simply adapt; fundamental, transformative changes may be necessary. 5.Sustainability. Community resilience is not sustainable if it serves only us, and only now; it needs to work for other communities, future generations, and the ecosystems on which we all depend. 6.Courage. As individuals and as a community, we need courage to confront challenging issues and take responsibility for our collective future.

40 Community-based Research: Collective Impact Conditions 1) Design and implement the initiative with priority on equity 2) Include community members in the collaborative 3) Recruit and co-create with cross-sector partners 4) Use data to continuously learn, adapt, and improve 5) Cultivate leaders with unique system leadership skills 6) Focus on program and system strategies 7) Build a culture that fosters relationships, trust, and respect across participants 8) Customize for local context

41 Evidence alone means nothing. we need to tell the story In broaching climate change with the public, don't start by making scientific declarations to people who rarely read or think about science. Far better to start with the climate change effects our audience is already aware of, particularly in resource-producing areas, and then present the science to help explain. For example, start with British Columbia loggers' awareness that winters are no longer cold enough to kill the pine beetle, or Alberta drill crews' awareness that it's taking longer for muskeg to freeze and allow drilling each fall. Preston Manning:

42 Tell a human story, not a scientific one. Listeners and readers must relate information on climate change to their daily lives, or to real stories involving real people suffering from climate impacts. We urgently need to shift climate change from a scientific to a social reality.

43 Tell the story. Climate projections indicate an increase in duration and intensity of drought VS Our street and park trees are dying due to the stress from increase in drought fires within the community are becoming more common We re worried about the future due to the increase of drought.

44 Tell the Story Climate projections indicate an decrease in annual precipitation potentially impacting softscape areas / urban green space. VS Our community s parks and street trees have an estimated value of $22,000 each! That is a lot of money invested in our trees and green space. Let s work together to ensure we can continue to rely on our trees / green space!

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46 Tell Your Story My journey in urban /community resiliency began on November working with peers to gain a greater understanding about the essential steps to enable resiliency. Since that day, my community and I have.

47 Today s Journey. 1) Introduction Why we are here and what today s journey will provide 2) Laid the Foundation: i) Climate change projections ii) Shared language (definitions) 3) Hazard, Risk and Vulnerability: Overview 4) Community Resilience Action Planning 5) Foundations & Storytelling 6) Resources

48 Resources Community Resilience Building Workshop Guide: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium s Plan2Adapt tool generates maps, plots, and data describing projected future climate conditions for regions throughout BC: Climate Resilience Framework, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition: PIEVC Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee created a protocol (framework) to assess the vulnerabilities of infrastructure to extreme weather events and future changes in climate. This enables better planning and design of safe and climate-reslient infrastructure: Planning for Climate Change, A Strategic, Values-based Approach for Urban Planners: Canadian Climate Information Portal:

49 Resources Canadian Institute of Planners (CIP) Climate Change Resources: Canadian Society of Landscape Architects, Adaptation Primers: Federation of Canadian Municipalities Climate Change and Resiliency: Resilience measurement practical guidance note series: Resilient Cities: City Resilience Strategy: ISET-International and Pitcher-Allan Associates, Do-It-Yourself Toolkit for Building Urban Community Resilience: Community Resilience Toolkit: A Workshop Guide for Community Resilience Planning:

50 We are all in this - TOGETHER - we can enable resilient communities.

51 Climate Change in the Urban Environment: Essential Steps to Enabling Resiliency Christine Callihoo, MSc., MCIP, RPP Sr. Community Planner / Project Manager / Facilitator christine@resiliencesolutions.ca