Environmental Policy of Climate Change

Transcription

1 World Energy Council North America Region Energy Forum Environmental Policy of Climate Change Juan C. Mata Sandoval Director General of Climate Change Policy Ministry i of the Environment and Natural Nt Resources EVOLUCIÓN DE LAS CONCENTRACIONES DE CO 2 Medición continua en Observatorio de Mauna Loa Nota: La línea roja representa los valores promedio mensuales registrados en el Observatorio de Mauna Loa, Hawaii. La línea azul representa los mismos datos corregidos por el promedio del ciclo estacional. Fuente: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory. Global Monitoring Division. USA.

2 EMISIONES DE CO2 POR QUEMA DE COMBUSTIBLES FÓSILES REAL VS ESCENARIOS IPCC Fuentes: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. N. Nakicenovic y R. Swart (Eds.) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. CambridgeUniversityPress Press. USA. Datos de emisión observada y estimada del CDIAC Global Fossil Disponible en: http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/tre_glob.html GLOBAL CO 2 EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS Fuente: Elaboración propia con datos de: Energy Information Administration. International Energy Annual

3 Global Long Term Vision Mitigation Baseline OECD 2050 forecast: Global GHG emissions baseline scenario: 71.4 GtCO 2 e (7.8 tco 2 e per capita); Mitigation scenario: 450 ppm CO 2e GHG concentration stabilisation pathway: 25.6 GtCO 2 e (2.8 tco 2 e per capita); Source: OECD Environmental Outlook to Paris, Figura 7.5, p The 450 ppm pathway allows a 50% chance to limit the temperature increase to 2 3 C Mexico s Climate Change Program (MCCP) (Content) Long Term Vision Global long term vision Mexico s mitigation pathway Mexico s adaptation pathway Mitigation Energy supply Energy use Agriculture, forests and other land uses Waste Adaptation Hydrological resources Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishery Ecosystems Integrated risk management Energy, industry and services, communication and transport infrastructure Land zoning and urban development Public health Components of a cross cutting policy Foreign policy Institutional strengthening Economics of climate change Education, training, information and communication Research and technological development

4 Long Term Vision Mexico's Position Based on a principle of justice and equity, Mexico: Proposes a flexible process Proposes (aspirational goal) to of per capita emissions reduce 50% of itsemissions by 2050* *with respect to 2000 Implications: Industrialized countries progressively reduce their per capita emissions and mobilize financial and technological support toward developing countries on an unprecedented scale; Developing countries maintain their emissions beneath the base line, while achieving full and sustainable development; Jointly and step by step the international community tends to converge by mid century at a global average at or below 2.8 tco2e per capita / per year. Long Term Vision Mexican mitigation pathway The long term aspirational goal Is not a legally binding commitment It is conditioned to: the availability of technical and financial support from developed countries the signature of a multilateral agreement in line with globally adopted parameters (2 3 C increase of average temperature; stabilization of CO 2 e concentration at 450 ppm) The indicative goal states that if the international community were determined to successfully face the immense The indicative goal states that, if the international community were determined to successfully face the immense challenge that climate change poses, Mexico would be ready to fulfill its corresponding part.

5 Evolution of GHG emissions in Mexico Mexico contributes approximately 1.6% of the world GHG emissions, with a total of 715MtCO2e in 2006, ranking in 12th place among top emitters. GH HG emissio ons Energy supply Energy use Agriculture, forests and other land uses Waste Other Source: INE. Inventarios Nacionales de Gases de Efecto Invernadero. México. INE. INEGEI preliminary. Long Term Vision Climate Change costs The Economics of Climate Change in Mexico Climate change costs are higher than mitigation costs Certain external costs are unacceptable. It is the case of drastic loss of biodiversity. A comprehensive analysis of co benefits would abate net mitigation costs. Climate Change and mitigation costs to 2050, as a percentage of GDP 1 Discount rate Inaction Costs 2 Mitigation Costs 3 0% 15.26% 5.59% 59% 4% 4.20% 0.56% 1 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Dr. Luis Miguel Galindo (coord.): La Economía del Cambio Climático en México ; 2 Baseline scenario. Including biodiversity scenario. Assuming a cost per ton of CO 2 e of 30USD.

6 Reductions in 2012: 50.7 MtCO 2 e Mitigation Short Term Goals (2012) Waste 11% Energy supply 36% Agriculture, forests and other land uses 30% Energy use 23% 86 specific goals included in 39 objectives, distributed in 4 emissions categories and 12 subcategories Main Mitigation Goals (2012) Concept MtCO 2 e Re injection of sour gas in Cantarell Sanitary landfills Addition of land to Sustainable Forestry Management Private self supply projects with renewable sources (wind) Incentives for the reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) Energy savings by substitution of home appliances and incandescent bulbs for efficient equipment Para Vivir Mejor Installation of wood efficient stoves Increased participation of trains as cargo transport Addition of land to schemes of environmental services payments Incorporation of terrestrial ecosystems as Wildlife Conservation Management Units (UMAS, in Spanish) Concept MtCO 2 e Operational efficiency in PEMEX Construction of new highways Efficient housing and green mortgages Hydroelectricity at CFE [La Yesca] Incorporation of forest ecosystems as Natural Protected Areas CFE s Manzanillo thermoelectric plant Elimination of old, polluting vehicles Wind generated electricity at CFE Co generation in PEMEX Clean highway cargo transport Sustainable planned grazing Commercial forest plantations Other Goals Total

7 PECC and NAMA s PECC : The program fosters national efforts on climate change mitigation during the period and acts as foundation to continued efforts beyond d2012. Includes unilateral NAMA s for Mexico as a developing country. PECC NAMA s are aligned with the National Development Plan and the Sectoral Programs ( ) of the Federal Government. All NAMA s included in PECC with federal budget guaranteed Though require financial assistance to implement improved MRVs. Conditional NAMAs vs. Credit Generating NAMAs Conditional NAMAs provide up front finance while credit generating NAMAs provide carbon credits after the reductions are achieved Unilateral and conditional NAMAs are designed to allow developing countries to capture the low hanging fruit as their contribution to protection of the climate Credit generating baselines are designed to offer higher cost reduction options to the carbon market as offsets Conditional NAMAs can create a race to the top as proposals from different developing countries compete for up front financing

8 Conditional NAMAs vs. Credit Generating NAMAs Conditional NAMAs offer a new opportunity for up front financing i to encourage further innovation in key industries Sectoral crediting will likely play a more relevant role compared to CDM as the source of carbon market finance for Mexico Eight energy laws and bills new or reformedconstitute the essence of the reform Promotion of renewable sources of energy and the sustainable use of energy: 1. New Law for a Sustainable Use of Energy 2. New Law for the Use of Renewable Energy and the Financing of the Energy Transition Better strategic planning and control capacities: 3. Article 33rd of the Federal Public Administration Organic Law (new attributions to SENER) 4. Law of the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) 5. New Law of the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH) Pemex strengthening: 6. New Law of Pemex 7. Regulatory Law of the Constitutional Article 27 relating to Oil Matters 8. Law of Federal Rights

9 Law for the Use of Renewable Energy and the Financingof theenergy Transition Created to promote the use of the renewable energy sources and clean technologies to generate electric power with purposes other than providing the public service of electric power, as well as to establish the national strategy and the instruments for the financing of the energy transition Gives the Secretariat of Energy and the Energy Regulatory Commission new attributions to make rules and strategies to include more renewable energy in the national portfolio Creates the Energy Transition and Sustainable Energy Use Fund, with 3,000 million pesos per year from 2009 to 2011, to achieve the energy transition GHG Abatement Cost Curve for Mexico in 2030 (USD/t CO 2 e) No regrets mitigation measures Degraded forest reforestation Forest g Solar PV HDV* diesel package 4 Increased electric public transport Smart grid management Cogeneration in Agronomy 100 oil and gas Off CCS in oil practices LDV* gasoline package 2 Biofuels 2nd shore and gas 80 generation On wind Cropland nutrient management Solar shore Increased and CSP 60 Other wind industry Biofuels 1st more efficient 40 Landfill gas Grassland generation bus transport electricity Recycling management 20 generation waste Small hydro Geothermal Organic soils New build -40 Livestock restoration Oil to gas antimethanogen vaccine Nuclear efficiency Abatement Reduced shift in package, -60 potential, LDV* gasoline package 4 deforestation power Pastureland afforestation residential LDV* gasoline package 3 Mt CO 2 e/year -80 Landfill gas direct use Reduced flaring -100 in oil and gas Tillage and residue management -120 Wastewater -140 Appliances, residential treatment abatement opportunities identified at a price below US$90/tCO Electronics, residential 2 e abated -180 (excluding transaction and information costs) New build lighting controls, commercial 40 percent of the abatement potential is negative or zero cost LEDs Weighted average abatement cost is about US$2/ tco 2 e No silver bullet to emissions reduction exists action is required in all sectors Many abatement opportunities are fragmented, e.g., energy efficiency and process improvements in industry *LDVs = light duty vehicles; HDVs = heavy duty vehicles Note: The cost estimate for the light colored bars is approximate Source: McKinsey GHG abatement cost curve v2.0; McKinsey analysis

10 Mexico s Mitigation Opportunities 2030 Mexico could achieve an emission reduction of 222 million tco 2 e in 2030, pursuing 70 no regrets measures identified at a zero or negative cost. This would position Mexico in a CO 2 concentration stabilization pathway, associated with the mitigation long term goal (with respect to the year 2000). Category Mitigation in 2030 MtCO2e Cost USD/CO2e Energy Generation Energy Use Agriculture, forestry and other land uses Waste Industrial Processes 2 0 Total CMM, McKinsey (2008). Project Catalyst, Low Carbon Growth: A Potential Pathway for Mexico. UK. No Regrets Mitigation Opportunities 2020 Outlook By pursuing 50% of the estimated potential, including the goals established in the PECC (6 MtCO 2 e), Mexico could achieve an additional reduction equivalent to 105 MtCO 2 e. PECC effect in 2020 ( 51MtCO 2 ) 726 Mitigation abatement due to no regrets measures ( 105 MtCO 2 ) 1. CMM, McKinsey (2008). Project Catalyst, Low Carbon Growth: A Potential Pathway for Mexico. UK.

11 Mitigation Opportunities in the Industrial Sector According to McKinsey s project 1, the industrial sector could mitigate 67 million tco 2 e in 2030 through the implementation of 35 no regrets type mitigation measures (negative or cero cost), 34MtCO 2 e could be accounted for the year 2020, assuming that, at least 50% of the 2030 reduction could be reached in Sector Type of measure Abatement in 2030 (MtCO 2e) Mitigation costs in 2030 (USD million) Cement More intensive i use of biomass and waste Chemical industry Cogeneration, fuel switching and motors Energy efficiency and improved Oil & gas maintenance Iron & Steel Cogeneration and coke substitution Electricity Geothermal and minihydroelectric plants Other industries Cogeneration Total CMM, McKinsey (2008). Project Catalyst, Low Carbon Growth: A Potential Pathway for Mexico. UK. CDM Projects in Mexico Mexico has 119 registered projects, mostly from waste management in swine farms (74). Around 82% of the CERs* obtained are from HFCs incineration processes. Category Registered Projects CERs obtained Expected CERs No. of projects tco2e/year No. of projects tco2e/year Wind 8 2,434,730 Hydroelectric 2 141, ,844 Cogeneration Energy Efficiency 3 265,678 Industrial gases emissions 1 4,789, ,155,363 Waste management in swine farms , ,253,434 Waste management in dairy farms ,441 Municipal i llandfill sites 1 125, ,544,907 Municipal waste water treatment 1 15,153 Programmatic CDM 1 24,283 TOTAL** 20 5,842, ,972,833 *CERs: Certified Emissions Reduction ** Last updated on October 6th 2009

12 Green Fund s Objectives The GF will achieve: Collective ownership Transcending donor recipient model Real, measurable, reportable mitigation action Integration of: Predictability Scalability The GF will complement (not replace) carbon markets Mitigation The GF will mobilize Some proportion financial resources of resources for to significantly Adaptation ti enhance the mitigation potential of developing Full consistency with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities Equitable multilateral governance COP oversight countries 10 billions to start and then a billion each year GF s Funding The contributions to the Fund will be based upon the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. The criteria are measured by the following indicators: Criteria Indicator 1. The polluter pays total emissions by country 2. Environmental equity per capita emissions 3. Carbon intensity emissions by country with respect to GDP 4. Capacity to pay per capita income by country and share of country in world economy Total contribution i by country will equal the weighted ih sum of the above indicators. It follows that the sum of the weights must equal one. Equity

13 Thank you! Juan C. Mata Sandoval mx 25