OCEAN LEADERSHIP PUBLIC POLICY FORUM PANEL ON OCEANS ENHANCING ENERGY SECURITY

Transcription

1 OCEAN LEADERSHIP PUBLIC POLICY FORUM PANEL ON OCEANS ENHANCING ENERGY SECURITY Brian Taylor, SOEST, University of Hawaii Willett Kempton, University of Delaware Walter Cruickshank, Minerals Management Service Andrea Geiger, Coastal States Organization Jean Flemma, House Natural Resources Committee

2 School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii Dean: Brian Taylor

3 2 ( y ) Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B Observed % 50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

4 CO 2 emissions % accumulated in the atmosphere, 55% removed by natural sinks The Airborne Fraction Ocean removes 25% Land removes 30% Impact of stabilizing emissions versus stabilizing concentrations of CO 2 -Warming -Precipitation changes -Sea level rise -Ocean acidification Canadell et al. 2007, Solomon et al., 2009, PNAS

5 Hawaii is Uniquely Dependent on Oil for Electricity U.S. Electricity Generation Hawaii Electricity Generation Nuclear 19% Hydroelectric Conventional 7% Other Renewables 2% Coal 50% Hydroelectric Conventional 1% Natural Gas 0% Other Renewables 5% Coal 13% Natural Gas 20% Petroleum 2% Oil (Petroleum) 78% ~ 80% Hawaii s electricity is from oil

6 Hawaii s Dependence is Increasingly on Foreign Oil Hawaii Crude Oil by Source Figure 2 Hawaii's Crude Oil Sources Barrels per Year OTHER LIBYA NIGERIA YEMEN U.A. EMIRATE ANGOLA ECUADOR THAILAND PAPUA NEW OMAN AUSTRALIA MALAYSIA BRUNEI INDONESIA VIETNAM CHINA SAUDI ARABIA ALASKA Increase in oil costs up to 2008 had significant economic impact on Hawaii

7 Energy Challenge for Hawaii How to reduce 90% oil dependence while Keeping electricity & fuel costs competitive Managing environmental impact & public acceptance Maintaining reliability Will require coordination from all stakeholders Well-conceived policies grounded by technology Development & testing of advanced technologies Validation & implementation of advanced energy systems

8 Hawaii Has Substantial Renewable Energy Resources Wind (commercial & viable all islands - siting and integration) Biomass (significant potential - land, water and sustainable crops may limit implementation) Photovoltaics (commercial, substantial deployments ongoing) Geothermal (commercial 30-60MW, siting limited to Big Is. Municipal Solid Waste (commercial, limited resource) Run-of-river Hydro (commercial - limited resource) Ocean Thermal (good resource - technology and cost) Wave (good resource - technology and cost) In spite of all these renewable resources, only 6% of Hawaii energy is from renewables

9 Use of Renewables Complicated by Independent Island Grid Systems 75MW 1300MW 5MW Transmission & distribution issues - mountainous terrain, sparse system Large difference between peak vs. base load requirements - available renewable energy taken off line No connections between islands 200MW Renewable resource mix, electricity costs, and grid issues provides unique opportunity for validation and deployment of new technologies. 200MW

10 Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Goal: 70% clean fuels by 2030 State-DoE partnership focusing on: -wind, solar & geothermal power -planning for ocean energy -upgrading the electric grid -undersea cables to interconnect islands & integrate renewables 2/22 White House dinner for National Governors Association HI statutory Energy system goals: Dependable, efficient, economic; Increasingly indigenous; Increasingly secure supply; Reduce GHG emissions.

11 Hawaii Natural Energy Institute: Program Areas Photovoltaics Thin film PV, Array Characterization Ocean resources Seabed methane hydrates Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Test Center Hydrogen Renewable hydrogen production from solar & biomass Hawaii Hydrogen Power Park Fuel Cells testing & development Biomass and biotechnology Conversion of biomass to fuels Production of bioplastics & specialty products Batteries & electric vehicles testing & modeling Deployment & demonstration of renewable & distributed energy systems. Systems integration & technology assessment 11

12 Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Test Center UH awarded one of two ocean energy test centers announced by USDoE fall 2008 Objectives: Wave: Facilitate development & implementation of commercial wave energy systems with one or more of these systems to supply energy to grid at >50% availability within 5 years Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Conduct long-term testing & help move OTEC to pre-commercialization Testing of OTEC components partially funded by Office of Naval Research grant

13 Industry-driven ~ 50% DoE funds support industry projects Cost share from UH and industry Leverage DoD investment in ocean energy Promote partnerships between marine power system developers, utility companies, financing sources, engineering and environmental companies, academia, & government agencies Facilitate in-water opportunity for developers to test devices under very wide range of environmental conditions Create web-based virtual Center to facilitate information and data sharing and serve as forum for stakeholders Primary UH role will be to conduct R&D to support commercial development of marine energy systems Corrosion and bio-fouling Ocean forecasting to optimize siting and operation Survivability Grid Integration issues Hawaii NMRTC Program Plan

14 Partners to Date - more welcome International Partners Industry Partners Public Partners HNEI Hawaii Natural Energy Institute HAWAII NATURAL ENERGY INSTITUTE School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawaii at Manoa University of Hawaii at Manoa

15 Hawaii Ocean Energy Center Test Sites Developers can test devices under wide range of environmental conditions - wave systems focus is on windward (NE) side; OTEC on lee (W) side.

16 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Using the temperature difference between: DEEP OCEAN WATER ~5 C And SHALLOW OCEAN WATER ~25 C Closed cycle 1. Warm ocean surface seawater boils a refrigerant liquid at high pressure (130 psi). 2. Refrigerant vapor spins a turbine generator, becomes low pressure (80 psi). 3. Cold deep ocean seawater condenses refrigerant to a liquid again. 4. Cycle continues similar to steam turbine but lower temperature.

17 OTEC Challenges: Technical challenges Large diameter and long pipelines Low cost, efficient heat exchangers Large, stable platform and mooring design Dynamic power cable to shore Cost Challenge: Low cost must be achieved with new materials, better engineering, innovative designs, while taking advantage of economy of scale and current offshore technology.

18 HNEI is leading a partnership to address high penetration renewables on the grids GOAL: Develop strategic energy roadmap to identify economically viable technologies to transform island energy infrastructures Complex energy sector significant problems managing large amounts of as-available renewable energy based power generation Simplistic analysis and aggregated models do not accurately capture effects of renewables on power system costs, stability, reliability, and petroleum usage Develop and validate rigorous analytic models for electricity and transportation Develop and model scenarios for deployment of new energy systems including effects of additional renewables Identify and analyze mitigating technologies (DSM, storage, advanced controls, forecasting, future gen), analyze to address systems integration (grid stability) and institutional issues.

19 Core Tool is Quantitative Model of Grid Electricity Systems The model consists of Dynamic Simulation (GE PSLF TM ) for transient stability simulation Production Simulation (GE MAPS TM ) for Hour-by-hour simulation of grid operations for optimal dispatch Objectives include An understanding of the technical impact of renewable energy deployments Quantitative tools for evaluating new technologies to address system impacts Methodology & tools for policymakers to analyze impacts & tradeoffs MW 2 weeks

20 Model has been validated against utility operations Frequency (Hz) PSLF Historical Data Time (seconds) Apollo Windfarm (MW) PSLF Historical Data Time (seconds) Example shows that frequency dips resulting from rapid loss of energy from wind farm accurately captured by the model

21 Models used to Estimate Storage Requirements to Mitigate Effects of Increased Wind Penetration Analysis: even modest energy storage helps mitigate frequency losses 60 Hz [Hz] Significant Wind Fluctuation on May 23rd 2007 f nom f nom +real storage No storage Storage No storage (1 MW, 60seconds) Storage Storage (1 MW, (60MW-sec) (60MWs) infinite) inf MWs) f nom +inf storage Storage 3000 ( 3200 time [s] Time (seconds)

22 NW National Marine Renewable Energy Center Oregon State University: Headquarters and Director (Bob Paasch) Focus on Wave Energy College of Engineering, Oceanography, Hatfield Marine Sciences Center University of Washington: Co-Director (Phil Malte) Focus on Tidal Energy (Puget Sound) Mechanical Engineering, Oceanography, Applied Physics Laboratory Industry Partners: Snohomish PUD, BioSonics, PNWER, Verdant Power, EPRI, Sound & Sea Tech.