Energy and Energy for the Southern States. Dr. Gil Weigand Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Transcription

1 Energy and Energy for the Southern States Dr. Gil Weigand Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2 Meet Mr. Reality 3,200,000 World-Wide Energy Consumption per Year* Mega-Watts 1,600,000 today s global annual demand for energy is about 16TW* demand will double by 2050 by 2050 the annual demand is expected to double (1TW = Tera-Watt = Watts) Today (2005) * U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration Year 2050 USA consumption = ¼ of World-Wide 2

3 Meet Mr. Reality Achieving 80% Reduction of Green House Gases* 3,200,000 Mega-Watts 1,600,000 no green-house-gas with green-house-gas** Today 2050 (2005) * 1990 Levels of Green House Gases; ** today s mix (2005): 86.5% fossil, 7% renewables, 6.3% nuclear, U.S DOE, EIA 3

4 Meet Mr. Reality Achieving 80% Reduction of Green House Gases every day, starting today and ending in 2050, add to the grid the equivalent of: Today (2005)

5 1,000,000 square feet of solar ---- every day And

6 200 square miles of wind turbines ---- every day And

7 1,000,000,000 watt nuclear power plant ---- every day

8 Generating an Abundance of Energy in a Carbon Constrained World is Really Hard 1,000,000 ft 2 U.S. Consumption is about ¼ of World-Wide Today (2005) 200 sq. miles billion watts 2050 For U.S. that means we need this scale of construction about every 4 days 8

9 Generating an Abundance of Energy in a Carbon Constrained World is Really Hard 1,000,000 ft 2 Ladies and Gentlemen U.S. Consumption is about ¼ of World-Wide Today (2005) 200 sq. miles billion watts 2050 For U.S. that means we need this scale of construction about every 4 days This is a RELLY HARD PROBLEM 9

10 Energy is Jobs Energy is Economic Strength and Development Energy is Opportunity 350 Energy is Necessary for Strong GDP GJ/capita GDP/capita 35 Source: Royal Dutch Shell: Exploring Future Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities 1 0

11 Energy is Jobs Energy is Economic Strength and Development Energy is Opportunity How will the Southern States ensure high energy supplies and strong economies in a demanding global energy marketplace? GJ/capita Energy is Necessary for Strong GDP High Energy = High GDP State legislatures are key since policy & law changes are necessary Low Energy = Low GDP GDP/capita 35 Source: Royal Dutch Shell: Exploring Future Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities 11

12 Energy is Jobs Energy is Economic Strength and Development Energy is Opportunity How will the Southern States ensure high energy supplies and strong economies in a demanding global energy marketplace? Ladies and Gentlemen GJ/capita Energy is Necessary for Strong GDP High Energy = High GDP Energy is Jobs & Economic Strength 150 State legislatures are key since policy & law changes are necessary Low Energy = Low GDP GDP/capita 35 Source: Royal Dutch Shell: Exploring Future Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities 12

13 We have light breezes in the South Resource Potential Poor Marginal Fair Good Excellent Outstanding Superb 13

14 However off shore is good for Virginia and the Carolinas This is 90m data so these are the football field tall next generation wind turbines U.S. Offshore Wind Resource

15 We All Know It Is Hot In The Southwest

16 Biomass has some potential 16

17 No Identified Hydrothermal Site in Southern States 17

18 Southern States produce ~40% of CO 2e due to electricity generation from coal in U.S. Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership 18

19 Southern States have a commanding leadership in nuclear power More than 40% of nation s nuclear power generation comes from Southern States Most future expansion planned for Southern States 19

20 EPRI Study Shows Two Potential Electric Generation Portfolios In A Low Carbon Future no new nuclear no CCS no PEVs coal and gas CCS nuclear expands PEVs expand 20

21 A few other views in a carbon constrained future (80% reduction in CO 2 emissions by 2050) % Renewables in Portfolio Organization 25% by % by 2030 about 50% by 2050 about 46% by % by 2050 Union of Concerned Scientists Blueprint for a Clean Energy Economy American Solar Energy Society Recommendation to 111 th Congress National Renewable Energy Lab (USDOE) International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 Greenpeace International 21

22 Jobs and Economic Growth Outcomes for the Southern States Depends on Energy Generation Mix Energy jobs and economic growth will be different Limited portfolio favors West Full portfolio is balanced or slightly favors Southern States CASL working to assure a full portfolio; CASL is working to advance economic growth in the Southern States 22

23 Jobs and Economic Growth Outcomes for the Southern States Depends on Energy Generation Mix Energy jobs and economic growth will be different Limited portfolio favors West Full portfolio is balanced or slightly favors Southern States CASL working to assure a full portfolio; CASL is working to advance economic growth in the Southern States About 1 Million Jobs For Winner States 23

24 Jobs and Economic Growth Outcomes for the Southern States Depends on Energy Generation Mix Energy jobs and economic growth will be different Limited portfolio favors West Full portfolio is balanced or slightly favors Southern States or CASL working to assure a full portfolio; CASL is working to advance economic growth in the Southern States 24

25 Jobs and Economic Growth Outcomes for the Southern States Depends on Energy Generation Mix Energy jobs and economic growth will be different Limited portfolio favors West Full portfolio is balanced or slightly favors Southern States CASL working to assure a full portfolio; CASL is working to advance economic growth in the Southern States About 5-6 Million Jobs For Winner Region 25

26 Jobs and Economic Growth Outcomes for the Southern States Depends on Energy Generation Mix Energy jobs and economic growth will be different Limited portfolio favors West Full portfolio is balanced or slightly favors Southern States CASL working to assure a full portfolio; CASL is working to advance economic growth in the Southern States Ladies and Gentlemen The Portfolio You Select is Your Fate 26

27 Local Generation Virtually not being pursued 27

28 Local Generation Only Effective Renewables Solution for Southern States Is Local Generation Needs to be both utilitybased and consumer-based Local Generation 28

29 Back-of-the-Envelop Economic Assumptions Regarding Jobs 40 years 2 trillion dollars investment to achieve 2050 portfolio 1/3 of investment directly supports jobs/payrolls Loaded salary between $150K and $200K per job 6 to 8 jobs created in industrial sector, small business, supply chain, or services sector for each construction/operations job About 10 states (or a region) will be big winners 29

30 Thank you