gws Institute of Economic Structures Research

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1 UfM Open Days Shaping the Mediterranean Future Casa Llotja de Mar, Barcelona, November Employment Effects of RE Methods and Case Studies Dr. Ulrike Lehr Institute of Economic Structures Research Heinrichstr. 30 D Osnabrück, Germany Tel.: + 49 (541) Fax: + 49 (541) Internet:

2 What drives employment in RE? Page2

3 ELEMENTS OF EMPLOYMENT FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY International experience shows that RE employment is driven by: Ambitious RE plans (domestic market) Development of the domestic industry (qualified work force and investment incentives) Stable framework conditions Export opportunities Investment Domestic production Exports Installation of wind parks, solar heat, solar electricity Maintenance of RE systems RE systems Intermediary goods, inputs Services for installation, planning, operation, maintenance Local content Intermediary goods RE systems Regional markets (MENA) 3

4 How do we measure employment from RE? Concepts and methods Page4

5 Gross employment Domestic Demand Foreign Demand Operation and Maintenance Inputs along the value chain Domestic production of systems for domestic installation Domestic production for exports Direct employment Indirect employment Gross employment 5

6 Domestic production along the value chain => Local content Intermediary Production of Operation goods:= inputs RET % imports PV % imports wind Etc. % imports PV % imports wind Etc. and Maintenance % domestic 6

7 German Experience (Monitored since 2004 by consortium ZSW/GWS/DLR/DIW Page7

8 How do we quantify the effects for Germany? Investment in Renewable Energy (RE), O&M Export of RE facilities Import of RE facilities Base year 2007: statistical data, survey Future: Scenarios => Resulting gross employment Input-Output-Tables (extended with vectors for RE) Impact on economic indicators, balance = > net effect Macro-econometric model: PANTA RHEI 8

9 Jobs in the renewable energy sources sector in Germany Wind energy 63,900 85,700 96, ,100 Biomass 56, , , ,500 Solar energy 25,100 49,200 80, ,900 Hydropower 7,600 7,800 8,100 9,500 Increase: approx. 129 % Geothermal energy Publicly funded research / administration 13,300 14,500 10,300 1,800 7,500 6,500 4,500 3, ,500 jobs 277,300 jobs 339,500 jobs 367,400 jobs ,000 40,000 60,000 80, , , ,000 Figures for 2009 and 2010 are provisional estimate; deviations in totals are due to rounding; Source: O Sullivan/Edler/van Mark/Nieder/Lehr: "Bruttobeschäftigung durch erneuerbare Energien im Jahr eine erste Abschätzung", as at: March 2011; interim report of research project Kurzund langfristige Auswirkungen des Ausbaus erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt ; image: BMU / Christoph Busse / transit 9

10 Manufacturing of Systems and Components 15.2 billion Of which 53 % domestic and 47 % export Operation and Maintenance * 3.9 billion Of which 100 % domestic * additional 5.6 billion combustibles and fuel From Input-Output Analysis: Direct + indirect employment= Gross employment total 2007: ca. 277,300 jobs Thereof Domestic Intermediate Inputs Equipment for generating, distributing, etc. electricity Machines 907 million 267 million 671 million Business-related services 655 million Metal products Construction 474 million 310 million 142 million 283 million 439 million 275million 1.2 billion 1 billion 0.8 billion 0.8 billion 0.4 billion For information only: imported intermediate inputs 1.1 billion 85,700 (31%) 8,100 (3%) 2008: 322, : 339, : 367,000 49,200 10,300 (4%) (18%) Wind Geothermal energy Hydro power Solar energy Biomass 119,500 (44%) Page10

11 Success factors: Germany Subsidies, tax breaks, feed-in tariff, changes are announced well ahead of time Investor security MW in 1990, MW in 2010; 8.8 billion in 2004, 26 billion in 2010 Step 1: Policy framework Step 2: Very high domestic demand From (2004) to jobs in 2010 Always: Domestic industry Step 3: International demand Strong domestic industry Traditional strength in machinery, electric equipment High-tech oriented industry Export oriented country, more than 70% of turnover in the wind industry is export 11

12 CASE STUDY TUNISIA: ADAPTING THE APPROACH TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Page12

13 Employment from RES and efficiency

14 Program Pilot application and tests Production Research and Development Operation Total Installation and Management employment maintenance Energy efficiency 30 Renewable Energy 15 PROSOL Résidentiel PROSOL Tertiaire PROSOL Elec Rural electrification Wind energy Crosssectional activities Total

15 How do we quantify the effects for Tunisia? Investment in Renewable Energy (RE), O&M Local content in production Local content in O&M Export possibilities => Resulting gross employment Impact on economic indicators GDP, Employment Base year 2010: survey Future: Scenarios Combination of: Local Input-Output-Tables for Local production structures International input vectors for RE Small model, GDP, imports, exports 15

16 MENA: the example of Tunisia Plan Solaire Tunisien PROSOL Slowly increasing Policy framework Domestic demand Ca. 3,400 direct jobs, ca. 2,500 indirect jobs Domestic industry International demand Integration of production Intermediary products e.g. wind industry Exports to Marocco (SWH) Export of regulation (PROSOL) 16

17 Thank you for your attention! For more:

18 Tunisian Solar Plan Targets for 2 time periods The Tunisian Solar Plan aims at the provision of clean energy and at the diversification of energy supply Objectives % of electricity from RES by % reduction of primary energy consumption by Objectives 40% of electricity from RES by. 40% reduction of primary energy consumption by. 18

19 North America Electricity 2020 Investment in RES in bil. 87,92 85,41 Europe without Germany Electricity 2020 Investment in RES in bil. 39,87 42,71 Transition countries Electricity 2020 Investment in RES in bil. 17,01 24,69 21,57 40,12 10,03 28,04 16,10 17,76 China Investment in RES in bil. Electricity ,25 81,41 13,49 18,83 India Investment in RES in bil. Electricity ,76 33,95 10,01 18,31 Other Asia Investment in RES in bil. Electricity ,34 26,25 14,18 15,53 Lateinamerica Investment in RES in bil. Africa Investment in RES in bil. Middle East Investment in RES in bil. Pazific Investment in RES in bil. Electricity ,99 30,53 9,74 8,91 Electric ity ,33 21,29 9,12 10,59 Electricit y Page ,22 29,12 10,70 13,45 Electricity ,74 21,07 8, GWS mbh 8,99