Demographics and the Coming Youth Explosion in the Gulf

Transcription

1 CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC (202) Demographics and the Coming Youth Explosion in the Gulf Anthony H. Cordesman Co-Director, Middle East Program Center for Strategic and International Studies January, 1998

2 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 2 Table of Contents THE IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE GULF... 4 THE MIDDLE EAST IS NOT TYPICAL OF OTHER DEVELOPING REGIONS... 5 TOTAL WORLD POPULATION BY REGION... 6 POPULATION OF DEVELOPING WORLD BY REGION: POPULATION GROWTH DEVELOPING WORLD BY REGION... 8 THE MIDDLE EAST HAS BY FAR THE WORST PROBLEM: TIME FOR POPULATION TO DOUBLE IN YEARS... 9 THE POPULATION DOUBLING RATE BY ARAB COUNTRY IN THE POTENTIAL POPULATION TRAP ESTIMATE OF MIDDLE EAST POPULATION TRENDS IN COMPARATIVE TOTAL POPULATION IN THE MENA REGION IN COMPARATIVE TOTAL LIFE EXPECTANCY IN THE MENA REGION IN MIDDLE EASTERN POPULATION GROWTH GREATLY EXCEEDED GNP AND PER CAPITA INCOME GROWTH DURING THE POPULATION TIME BOMB: ECONOMIC GROWTH LESS POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH, DECLINING OIL PRICES, STATISM AND THE FAILURE TO DIVERSIFY: A MAJOR SOUTHERN GULF STATE AS A CASE EXAMPLE FIGHTING THE FUTURE THE POPULATION TIME BOMB: OECD/IEA/IMF WORLD BANK ESTIMATES REVEAL MAJOR POPULATION GROWTH EVEN WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE GROWTH RATE DECLINES POPULATION MOMENTUM IN THE MIDDLE EAST THE POPULATION TIME BOMB: TOTAL MENA POPULATION GROWTH, : THE POPULATION TIME BOMB: DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE MIDDLE EAST: : THE POPULATION TIME BOMB: GROWTH IN THE TOTAL POPULATION OF THE LARGEST MENA COUNTRIES: : THE MOMENTUM BOMB: ABSOLUTE GROWTH IN ADDED POPULATION IN THE LARGEST MENA COUNTRIES: : WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES IN THE MENA REGION: WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE GROWTH IN TOTAL POPULATION OF THE MENA COUNTRIES: THE CRISIS IN THE GULF: ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF THE GULF STATES DURING ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF THE LARGER GULF STATES DURING WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE IN THE GULF STATES: WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF THE GULF STATES: WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION OF THE POPULATION OF THE LARGER GULF COUNTRIES: POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU ESTIMATE OF INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE LARGER ARAB GULF AND RED SEA STATES: THE CRISIS AFFECTS THE SMALLER GULF STATES: TRENDS ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF THE SMALLER GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL STATES DURING ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF THE SMALLER GULF STATES DURING

3 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 3 WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION OF THE POPULATION OF THE SMALLER GULF COUNTRIES: POPULATION GROWTH AND THE YOUTH EXPLOSION COMPARATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE YOUTH RATE ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF THE YOUTH RATE IN THE ARAB STATES MINIMAL COMPETITIVENESS FOR YOUTH IN THE ARAB STATES: PERCENTAGE OF SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT LITERACY RATES IN THE MENA COUNTRIES GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF ARAB YOUTH: CURRENT RATE OF URBANIZATION AND EXPOSURE TO URBAN MEDIA MALE DEMOGRAPHICS IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST IN 1996/ ESTIMATE OF DIRECT UNEMPLOYMENT IN ESTIMATED COMPARATIVE DIRECT AND DISGUISED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN 1996: A ROUGH ESTIMATE COMPARATIVE NEW JOBS THAT MUST BE CREATED EACH YEAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: GROWING URBANIZATION AND EXPOSURE TO URBAN MEDIA GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: GROWING HYPER-URBANIZATION IN CITIES OF ONE MILLION OR MORE GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: DECLINE IN PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL WORK FORCE INVOLVED IN AGRICULTURE: 1970 VERSUS GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: THE ROLE OF WOMEN IN THE WORK FORCE IN 1980 AND GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF WOMEN: THE MASSIVE GAP BETWEEN THE PERCENTAGE OF WOMEN EDUCATED AND WOMEN AS A PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE DESTROYING THE FUTURE: OTHER PROBLEMS AFFECTING YOUTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST POPULATION GROWTH, DECLINING OIL PRICES, STATISM AND THE FAILURE TO DIVERSIFY CAN FREEZE PER CAPITA INCOME FOR THE POORER ARAB STATES SOLUTIONS TO DEMOGRAPHICS AND THE YOUTH EXPLOSION - I SOLUTIONS TO DEMOGRAPHICS AND THE YOUTH EXPLOSION - II... 56

4 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 4 The Impact of Population Growth on the Middle East and the Gulf Growth is much greater than in other regions, particularly in the Gulf. Projected future declines in the rate of growth cannot affect the region for a decade or more. Population growth may cripple development in North Africa. Egypt has not solved its problems. Population growth could undermine or destroy the Arab-Israeli peace price. Population growth could offset oil wealth in Iraq and impoverish Iran. The Southern Gulf states are breeding themselves out of oil wealth into poverty.

5 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 5 The Middle East is Not Typical of Other Developing Regions Growth is much greater than in other regions, particularly in the Gulf. Only Sub-Saharan Africa will match the Middle East in terms of regional growth. Population growth rate is nearly twice that of East Asia and middle income nations, and four times that of the world s high income nations. Fertility rate (births per woman) is declining, but is still nearly twice the desirable level.

6 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 6 Total World Population by Region (Middle East Economic Digest estimate in millions) 3, , ,041 2, , , , Oc eani a Lat i n Nor t h FSU, E. A f r i c a Wes t er n A s i a M ENA A m er i c a A m er i c a Eur. & Eur ope Cent r al A s i a Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Middle East Economic Digest, January 24, 1997, p. 8; World Development Report, 1995, World Resources ; Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security, World Bank estimates, 1995; Stockholm Environment Institute.

7 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 7 Population of Developing World by Region: (World Bank estimate in millions) Eas t A s i a & Sout h A s i a Eur ope and Lat i n Sub- M ENA Pac i f i c Cent r al A m er i c a Sahar an A s i a and A f r i c a Car r i bean Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 36.

8 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 8 Population Growth Developing World by Region (World Bank estimate in Percent) Hi gh M i ddl e Eas t Sout h Eur ope Lat i n Sub- M ENA Inc om e Inc om e A s i a & A s i a and A m er i c a Sahar an Nat i ons Nat i ons Pac i f i c Cent r al and A f r i c a A s i a Car r i bea Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 36.

9 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 9 The Middle East Has By Far the Worst Problem: Time for Population to Double in Years Gul f M i ddl e East and Nor t h A f r i ca Wor l d A dv anced Dev el oped Nat i ons Developed World doubles every 501 years Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank data base for World Population Projections, 1996; World Bank/CIA population growth estimates

10 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 10 The Population Doubling Rate by Arab Country in 1996 (Time for Population to Double at Current Growth Rate) Wor l d 46 Dev el opi ng Wor l d 37 A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os 20 Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir aq 24 J or dan 27 Kuw ai t 30 Lebanon 34 Li by a 31 M aur i t ani a 28 M or oc c o 34 Om an 14 Gaz a & Wes t Bank 16 Qat ar 43 Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan 31 Sy r i a 28 T uni s i a 41 UA E 36 Yem en Developed World doubles every 501 years Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

11 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 11 The Potential Population Trap There is a race between economic development and population growth. Population growth has already sharply reduced the growth in per capita income. Oil wealth does not solve the problem.

12 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 12 Estimate of Middle East Population Trends in 1996 North Africa Total Population Pop (%) Growth Rate Life Expectancy Fertility Rate Literacy Rate (%) Mauritania 2,336, Morocco 29,779, Algeria 29,183, Tunisia 9,019, Libya 5,445, Total/Average 75,763, Arab-Israeli Egypt 63,575, Israel 5,421, Jordan 4,212, Lebanon 3,776, Syria 15,608, Total/Average Northern Gulf Iran 66,094, Iraq 21,422, Southern Gulf Bahrain 590, Kuwait 1,950, Oman 2,186, NA Qatar 547, Saudi Arabia 19,409, UAE 3,057, Yemen 13,483, Total/Average Red Sea Djibouti 427, Eritrea 3,427, NA Ethiopia 57,171, Somalia 9,639, Sudan 31,547, Total/Average Middle East Total/Average Related Turkey 62,484, Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the CIA World Factbook, 1996, April, 1997.

13 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 13 Comparative Total Population in the MENA Region in 1996 (In Millions) A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a Popul at i on Ref er enc e Bur eau CIA M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a T ur k ey UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from The CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997; Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009; and the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 14.

14 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 14 Comparative Total Life Expectancy in the MENA Region in 1996 (In years; Female rates exceed male rates by 2-4 years in all countries) Dev el oped Wor l d Wor l d Dev el opi ng Wor l d A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Isr ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or occo Om an Gaz a & West Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Popul at i on Ref er ence Bur eau Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a Tuni si a CIA Tur k ey UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from The CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997; Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009; and the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 14.

15 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 15 Middle Eastern Population Growth Greatly Exceeded GNP and Per Capita Income Growth During (1984=100, and all following years are percentages of 1984 as base year. All expenditure totals are measured in constant 1984 US dollars.) Popul at i on Gr oss Nat i onal Pr oduct 4 0 Per Capi t a Incom e Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, various editions. Middle East does not include North African states other than Egypt.

16 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 16 The Population Time Bomb: Economic Growth Less Population Growth (Growth in Percent with High Oil Price Case: Average Annual Percentage Change) Chi na 6.3 East A si a 4.7 Ot her Dev el opi ng 3.8 East er n Eur ope 3.7 Sout h A si a 3.3 OECD Paci f i c 2.2 OECD Eur ope 2.2 Lat i n A m er i ca 2.2 Tot al OECD 1.9 WORLD 1.8 Nor t h A m er i ca 1.5 A f r i ca 1.4 M i ddl e East Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook, 1996, pp. 170, 235.

17 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 17 Population Growth, Declining Oil Prices, Statism and the Failure to Diversify: A Major Southern Gulf State as a Case Example (Per Capita Income in Current $US) Nom i nal Per Capi t a Incom e Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from US Department of Commerce, Saudi Arabia: 1996 Economic Trends, Faxline.

18 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 18 Fighting the Future Projected declines in the rate of growth are not going to solve the problem. Population momentum is extremely high. The cumulative impact could cripple regional cooperation. Growth in key states can cripple major nations. Population growth could offset oil wealth in Iraq and impoverish Iran. The Southern Gulf states are breeding themselves out of oil wealth into poverty.

19 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 19 The Population Time Bomb: OECD/IEA/IMF World Bank Estimates Reveal Major Population Growth Even With the Assumption that the Growth Rate Declines (Growth in Percent: Average Annual Percentage Change) A f r i ca M i ddl e East Sout h A si a Ot her Dev el opi ng East A si a Lat i n A m er i ca Nor t h A m er i ca Chi na East er n Eur ope OECD Paci f i c OECD Eur ope Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from OECD/IEA, World Energy Outlook, 1996, pp. 170, 235.

20 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 20 Population Momentum in the Middle East (Ratio of the population when zero growth finally occurs relative to the population in 1995, assuming that fertility rate is at the replacement level in 1995 and remains at that level) Hi gh Inc om e Eas t A s i a Low Inc om e M ENA A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Crisis Level = 1.7 Egy pt Ir an Ir aq J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Problem Level = 1.3 Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a UA E Yem en The Momentum Ratio of the High Income World is 1.1 Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, pp

21 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 21 The Population Time Bomb: Total MENA Population Growth, : (/World Bank Estimate Made in 1997 in Millions) Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, pp

22 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 22 The Population Time Bomb: Demographics of the Middle East: : (Johns Hopkins/World Bank Estimate Made in 1995 in Millions) A r ab Nor t h A f r i ca 5 0 A r ab M i ddl e East 0 Ir an Isr ael Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank data base for World Population Projections, 1996.

23 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 23 The Population Time Bomb: Growth in the Total Population of the Largest MENA Countries: : (/World Bank Estimate Made in 1997 in Millions) Ir an 8 0 T ur k ey 7 0 Egy pt 6 0 A l ger i a 5 0 Sudan 4 0 M or oc c o 3 0 Ir aq Sy r i a Saudi A r abi a Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, pp

24 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 24 The Momentum Bomb: Absolute Growth in Added Population in the Largest MENA Countries: : (/World Bank Estimate Made in 1997 in Millions) Ir an Egy pt 2 5 T ur k ey 2 0 Saudi A r abi a Sudan 1 5 Ir aq 1 0 A l ger i a 5 M or oc c o 0 Sy r i a Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, pp

25 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 25 World Bank Estimate of the Population Growth Rate of Individual Countries in the MENA Region: (Percentage of Average Annual Growth) A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Sudan Sy r i a T ur k ey T uni s i a UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

26 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 26 World Bank Estimate of the Growth in Total Population of the MENA Countries: (In Millions) A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Sudan Sy r i a T ur k ey T uni s i a UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

27 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 27 The Crisis in the Gulf: Population growth is a critical threat to Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. Oil wealth cannot offset a steady drop in per capita income unless far more serious cuts in growth take place. Saudi real per capita income already 50% of level in mid-1980s. Iranian real per capita income down to pre-oil boom levels of Iraq real per capita income down 50% between 1980 and 1989, now are crisis level. Iran is most a critical case, and population growth may prevent serious future growth in real per capita income. Grew from 56 million in 1990 to 65 million in Will rise to 75 million in 2000, 85 million in 2005, and 96 million in Population growth threatens Iraq s post-sanctions development: Grew from 18.1 million in 1990 to 21.0 million in Will rise to 24.5 million in 2000, 28.4 million in 2005, and 32.5 million in Saudi Arabia also faces growing problems: Grew from 15.8 million in 1990 to 18.6 million in Will rise to 22.0 million in 2000, 25.8 million in 2005, and 30.0 million in Nearly doubles between 1990 and 2010.

28 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 28 Estimated Trends in Population of the Gulf States During (in 1,000s) Bahr ai n Ir an Ir aq Kuw ai t Om an Qat ar Saudi A r abi a UA E Yem en Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Population Projections, , Washington, World Bank, 1994 and material provided by the CIA.

29 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 29 Estimated Trends in Population of the Larger Gulf States During (in 1,000s) Ir an Ir aq 0 Saudi A r abi a Yem en Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Population Projections, , Washington, World Bank, 1994 and material provided by the CIA.

30 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 30 World Bank Estimate of the Population Growth Rate in the Gulf States: (Percentage of Average Annual Growth) Hi gh Inc om e Bahr ai n Ir an Ir aq Kuw ai t Om an Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Sudan UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

31 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 31 World Bank Estimate of the Total Fertility Rates of the Gulf States: (Births Per Woman) Hi gh Incom e St at es Bahr ai n Ir an Ir aq Kuw ai t Om an Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Sudan UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

32 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 32 World Bank Estimate of the Population of the Population of the Larger Gulf Countries: (In Millions) Ir an Ir aq Saudi A r abi a Sudan Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

33 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 33 Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Increase in the Population of the Larger Arab Gulf and Red Sea States: (In Millions) Yem en Sudan Som al i a Saudi A r abi a Ir aq Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

34 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 34 The Crisis Affects the Smaller Gulf States: Trends Oman is a demographic nightmare case, and could be serious drop in real per capita income. Grew from 1.5 million in 1990 to 1.9 million in Will rise to 2.3 million in 2000, 2.8 million in 2005, and 3.3 million in Bahrain also faces serious demographic pressures because of lack of oil wealth. Grew from 503,000 in 1990 to 572,000 in Will rise to 639,000 in 2000, 704,000 in 2005, and 771,000 in Likely to be 70%+ Shi ite in Other smaller Gulf states face much less serious problem if they reduce foreign labor. Qatar can handle increase if it expels foreign labor: Grew from 486,000 in 1990 to 544,000 in Will rise to 598,000 in 2000, 646,000 in 2005, and 693,000 in UAE will face problems, but not a crisis: Grew from 1.6 million in 1990 to 1.8 million in Will rise to 2.0 million in 2000, 2.2 million in 2005, and 2.3 million in 2010.

35 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 35 Estimated Trends in Population of the Smaller Gulf Cooperation Council States During (in 1,000s) Bahr ai n Kuw ai t Om an Qat ar UA E Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Population Projections, , Washington, World Bank, 1994 and material provided by the CIA.

36 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 36 Estimated Trends in Population of the Smaller Gulf States During (in 1,000s) UA E Kuw ai t Om an 0 Bahr ai n Qat ar Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Population Projections, , Washington, World Bank, 1994 and material provided by the CIA.

37 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 37 World Bank Estimate of the Population of the Population of the Smaller Gulf Countries: (In Millions) Bahr ai n Om an Qat ar UA E Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

38 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 38 Population Growth and the Youth Explosion Projected future declines in the rate of Growth cannot affect the region for a decade or more. Nearly 40% of the population is under 14. Education is breaking down and often irrelevant % of the population must leave home in the next five years. Direct and disguised unemployment of youth averages 25% to 40%, with little improvement in sight.

39 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 39 Comparative Estimate of the Youth Rate (Percentage of the Population Aged 14 Years or Less) US Wor l d Developed Nations Average 20% Yem en UA E Saudi Qat ar Om an Kuw ai t Ir aq Ir an Bahr ai n Egy pt Lebanon Sy r i a J or dan Wes t Bank Gaz a Isr ael T uni s i a World Average is 32% M or oc c o M aur i t ani a Li by a A l ger i a Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA on-line Internet data base for the World Factbook.

40 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 40 Alternative View of the Youth Rate in the Arab States (Percentage of the Population which is Under 15 years of Age) Dev el oped Wor l d Developed Rate is 20% Wor l d Dev el opi ng Wor l d Developing World is 35% A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Arab World is 42% Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir aq J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a 25% is Probable Maximum Long- Term Stability Rate M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a 35% Represents High Risk Rate for Arab Countries Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a UA E Yem en The Youth Rate of the Developed World is 20% Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

41 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 41 Minimal Competitiveness for Youth in the Arab States: Percentage of Secondary School Enrollment (Percentage of the Population in Secondary School which is years of Age) Dev el oped Wor l d Wor l d Dev el opi ng Wor l d A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir aq J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an M en Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Wom en Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a UA E Yem en The Secondary Education Rate of the Developed World is 92-95% Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

42 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 42 Literacy Rates in the MENA Countries (Percentage Literate: Often Based on Literacy at graduation or non-statistical estimates. True adult literacy rate often much lower) A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a T ur k ey UA E Yem en Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the on-line edition of the CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997.

43 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 43 Guessing at the Expectations of Arab Youth: Current Rate of Urbanization and Exposure to Urban Media (Percentage of the Population Now Living in Urban Areas) Dev el oped Wor l d Wor l d Dev el opi ng Wor l d A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir aq J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a UA E Yem en Over 90% of the Arab world has daily access to at least a transistor radio. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

44 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 44 Male Demographics in the Greater Middle East in 1996/1997 Country Total Population Males Reaching Males Between the Ages of Males Between 15 and 49 Military Age 13 and and and 32 Total Medically Fit Each Year Algeria 29,183, ,229 1,828,000 1,598,000 2,507,000 7,391,946 4,354,267 Libya 5,445,436 56, , , ,000 1,170, ,288 Mauritania 2,336, , , , , ,546 Morocco 29,779, ,334 1,630,000 1,468,000 2,383,000 7,541,745 4,782,028 Tunisia 9,019,687 91, , , ,000 2,354,513 1,249,728 Sub-Total 75,763,359-4,414,000 3,980,000 6,263,000 18,959,069 11,606,857 Egypt 63,360, ,453 3,338,000 4,734,000 4,734,000 16,530,460 10,723,011 Israel 5,422,000 50, , , ,000 1,390,603 1,139,000 Jordan 4,422,000 45, , , , , ,891 Lebanon 3,776, , , , , ,000 Syria 14,284,00 159, , ,000 1,108,000 3,440,030 1,928,000 Sub-Total 91,264, ,000 4,265,000 7,113,000 23,232,097 15,042,902 Iran 66,095, ,000 3,993,00 3,293,000 5,017,000 15,158,000 9,010,000 Iraq 21,422, ,843 1,334,000 1,106,000 1,629,000 4,832,000 2,711,000 Sub-Total 87,516, ,843 5,327,000 4,399,000 6,646,000 19,990,000 11,721,000 Bahrain 590,042 4,346 27,000 22,000 41, , ,702 Kuwait 1,950,047 17, ,000 83, , , ,585 Oman 2,186,548 26, ,000 88, , , ,747 Qatar 547,761 4,115 22,000 18,000 38, , ,403 Saudi Arabia 19,409, ,010 1,172, ,000 1,451,000 5,405,828 3,005,900 UAE 3,057,337 21,250 83,000 74, ,000 1,102, ,439 Sub-Total 27,740, ,330 1,512,000 1,237,000 1,946,000 8,132,739 4,532,777 Yemen 13,483, , , ,000 1,155, ,764 1,658,517 TOTAL MENA 295,768,483-17,048,000 14,533,000 21,123,000 73,299,669 44,563,053 Djibouti 427,642-36,000 30,000 48, ,528 60,076 Eritrea 3,427, , , , Ethiopia 57,171, ,724 3,300,000 2,272,300 4,113,000 2,912,144 6,707,180 Somalia 9,639, , , ,000 2,333,914 1,301 Sudan 31,647, ,460 1,735, ,449,000 2,183,000 7,152,884 4,399,445 Sub-Total 102,313,881-5,816,000 4,358,300 7,249, Turkey 62,484, ,456 3,271,000 3,265,000 5,520,000 16,937,828 10,312,010 Chad 6,976, , , ,000 1,562, ,210 Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman, CIA World Factbook, 1996 and IISS, Military Balance,

45 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 45 Estimate of Direct Unemployment in 1996 (Percentage of the Population Unemployed. Data are not comparable and useful data are not available for many countries) Dev el oped Wor l d Wor l d Dev el opi ng Wor l d A r ab Wor l d A l ger i a Bahr ai n Com or os Dj i bout i Egy pt Ir aq J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a UA E Yem en Over 90% of the Arab world has daily access to at least a transistor radio. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

46 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 46 Estimated Comparative Direct and Disguised Unemployment Rate in the Middle East in 1996: A Rough Estimate (Rate measured in Percent) Yem en UA E Saudi Di s gui s ed Qat ar Om an Di r ec t ( CIA ) Kuw ai t Ir aq Ir an Bahr ai n Egy pt Lebanon Sy r i a J or dan Wes t Bank Gaz a Isr ael T uni s i a M or oc c o M aur i t ani a Li by a A l ger i a Rough estimate by Anthony H. Cordesman based on CIA and World Bank estimates for Disguised includes public sector, civil service, and private sector jobs with no use economic output.

47 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 47 Comparative New Jobs That Must Be Created Each Year in the Middle East Yem en UA E Saudi Qat ar Om an New Fem al e J obs New M al es J obs Per Year Kuw ai t Ir aq Ir an Bahr ai n Egy pt Lebanon Sy r i a J or dan Wes t Bank Gaz a Isr ael T uns i a M or oc c o M aur i t ani a Li by a A l ger i a Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA on-line Internet data base, estimate is for 1996.

48 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 48 Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Growing Urbanization and Exposure to Urban Media (Percentage of the Population Now Living in Urban Areas) M ENA Regi on A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a T ur k ey UA E Yem en Over 90% of the Arab world has daily access to at least a transistor radio. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.6 and Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996.

49 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 49 Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Growing Hyper-Urbanization in Cities of One Million or More (Percentage of the Population Living in Urban Agglomerations of 1 Million or More ) Hi gh Inc om e Eas t A s i a M ENA Regi on A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M or oc c o Saudi A r abi a Sy r i a T uni s i a T ur k ey Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.6 and Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996.

50 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 50 Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Decline in Percentage of Total Work Force Involved in Agriculture: 1970 Versus 1995 (Percentage of the Labor Force) A l ger i a Bahr ai n Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Gaz a & Wes t Bank Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T uni s i a T ur k ey UA E Yem en Arrows show countries where major shifts are likely to result in major increases in expectations. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, April, 1997, pp

51 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 51 Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: The Role of Women in the Work Force in 1980 and 1995 (Percentage of the Labor Force) Hi gh Inc om e Nat i ons Eas t A s i a A l ger i a Egy pt Ir an Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o Om an Saudi A r abi a Sudan Sy r i a T ur k ey T uni s i a UA E Yem en Women make up 42% of the labor force in High Income nations, and 45% of the labor force in a high growth region like East Asia. They are 43% of the labor force in the United States. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.3.

52 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 52 Guessing at the Expectations of Women: The Massive Gap Between the Percentage of Women Educated and Women as a Percent of the Labor Force Hi gh Inc om e Nat i ons Eas t A s i a A l ger i a Egy pt Ir an % of Wom en Reac hi ng Gr ade 4 Ir aq Is r ael J or dan Kuw ai t Lebanon Li by a M aur i t ani a M or oc c o % of Wom en Enr ol l ed i n Sec ondar y Sc hool Om an Qat ar Saudi A r abi a Som al i a Sudan Sy r i a T ur k ey Wom en as % of Labor For c e T uni s i a UA E Yem en Women make up 42% of the labor force in High Income nations, and 45% of the labor force in a high growth region like East Asia. They are 43% of the labor force in the United States. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.3 and 2.8, and Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population.

53 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 53 Destroying the Future: Other Problems Affecting Youth in the Middle East Lack of efforts to educate population in need for family planning; official denial of the seriousness of the problem. Failure to perceive that the Middle East must train its youth to be globally competitive with youth in lead developing countries such as those in East Asia. Breakdown and/or gross over-crowding of schools in many countries. Underpaying of teachers in most countries and shift to lower cost, lower quality contract teachers in many Gulf states. Severe cutbacks in the number or value of scholarships and education abroad. Failure to modernize course programs and train students for real world jobs. Shift to Islamic education in some states without regard to lack of relevance to realworld economic needs. Retention of out-dated liberal arts programs in secular systems that do not train youth for real-world-jobs. Near-automatic passing of students in some secondary and university education problems; dropping standards for secondary and university education in many countries. Corruption in others. Failure to anticipate housing needs, plan for the impact of population growth. Over-reliance on foreign labor in the Gulf states -- often coupled to cultural and economic barriers to the entry of younger nationals into the work force. Failure to educate women and/or use them effectively in the labor force. Use of state employment and the military to create meaningless non-jobs that do not develop skills or a work ethic. Nepotism and influence create further non-jobs. Many of the jobs that do exist in the private sector are in service industries whose primary function is to increase the need for imports. Exacerbation of ethnic and sectarian problems through discrimination against youth in have not groups. Creation of systems that either mean years of waiting for jobs after education or years in non-productive jobs that destroy work ethnic, provide no real training, and waste educational skills. Systematic lack of economic rewards for productivity and efficiency.

54 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 54 Population Growth, Declining Oil Prices, Statism and the Failure to Diversify Can Freeze Per Capita Income for the Poorer Arab States (Per Capita Income in 1995 $US) Per Capi t a Inc om e : 3 % gr ow t h : 6 % gr ow t h Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, October 20, The 3% case in the current projection, even with declining population growth. The 6% case implies both declining population growth and serious economic reform. The Arab countries included in the estimate are Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen.

55 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 55 Solutions to Demographics and the Youth Explosion - I Recognize that there is a population and youth crisis. Conduct a popular education program to limit population growth. Encourage Islamic leaders to support it. Force radical reductions in number of foreign workers, with priority for jobs that allow rapid conversion to native labor. Eliminate economic disincentives for employers in hiring native labor, and creating disincentives for hiring foreign labor. Reduce state subsidies and welfare that distort the economy and discourage the native population from seeking jobs. Educate the population to understand it must compete globally and East Asia, not Islam or the Arab World, is the standard. Restructure the educational system to focus on job training and competitiveness. Create strong new incentives for faculty and students to focus on job-related education, sharply down-size other forms of educational funding and activity, and eliminate high overhead educational activities that lack economic benefits.

56 Demographics and the Youth Explosion in the Middle East 03/08/98 Page 56 Solutions to Demographics and the Youth Explosion - II Eliminate guaranteed employment, and state funding of disguised unemployment. Restructure state planning to explicitly plan for housing, infrastructure, and other state related activities necessary to deal with youth explosion. Avoid stop gap state projects or subsidies that create disguised unemployment or non-competitive ventures that act as a further state-sponsored distortion of the economy. Eliminate economic disincentives for employers in hiring native labor, and creating disincentives for hiring foreign labor. Establish market criteria for all major state and state-supported investments to force them to create and pay for real jobs.