Climate Change (CC) Impacts & Adaptation

Transcription

1 Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/ Climate Change (CC) Impacts & Adaptation Alistair Hunt Department of Economics University of Bath UK +44(0)

2 Overview of Climate Adaptation presentation CC impacts as an environmental hazard CC impacts in the ENPI East Regional context Outline of Assessment Method Results Qualitative Quantitative Conclusions: Next steps for policy use Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 2

3 CC Impacts Environmental Hazard CC increasingly recognised as significant hazard in all ENPI East countries. Accumulating evidence showing currently observed CC impacts in many sectors, including water resources, coastal regions, human health, forestry, agriculture, critical infrastructure and ecosystems. Impacts are cross-sectoral and projected to increase in future time periods Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 3

4 Climate change adaptation Adaptation: changes to natural sytems or human practices in response to actual/expected climatic change or its effects. Example of adapation measure in agriculture: adoption of crop varieties that tolerate better drought or water CC mitigation: practices that reduce the probability of climate change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of GHG, e.g. cleaner energy Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 4

5 CC Impacts Drivers GHG (CO2, and equiv.) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture and industrial practices (+ natural phenomena) result in atmospheric warming: Global average temperatures risen since mid-20 th century Global sea-level rise (SLR) observed to date Increase in frequency of some extreme weather events observed Uncertainty remains in CC modelling Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 5

6 CC Impacts: Overview Potential Impacts of Climate Change Climate Change Scenarios Atmosphere / cryosphere / sea Greenhouse gases concentration Temperature (means & extremes) Precipitation (means & extremes) Storms Sea level rise Permafrost/ice melting Ground level ozone Ecosystem conditions and supporting services Species phenology Species distribution Forest fires Water quality Floods Soil degradation Water scarcity droughts Economic impacts Infrastructures and physical capital (Damages, Losses) Production and Consumption (Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential, Variability/disruptions activity) Employment Impact on Ecosystem services Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel) Regulating (Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification) Cultural Social Impacts Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity) Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions) Resource conflicts Migrations Social fabric Governance Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 6

7 ENPI-East regional Context Regional climate effects include: Mean temperature (0.41C/decade from 1979) up to + 5.5C by 2100 frequency of extreme weather events, particularly intense rainfall events, has increased in recent decades: floods Summer rainfall decreasing Global sea level rise Identified trends likely to be exacerbated by future climate change Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 7

8 Case Study: Azerbaijan Sea level rise: Caspian Sea coastline vulnerable to fluctuations in water levels e.g. Absheron Peninsula, heavily populated. Water resource availability and scarcity: availability is forecasted to fall by around 25% by 2030 Increased risk of flooding: both inland and along the Caspian Sea coast Increased frequency and severity of high temperature events: most significant in urban heat islands Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 8

9 ENPI East regional context Impacts: Multi-sectoral; mainly negative; predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry Trends: exacerbation of those observed to date, though uncertainty over decades to 2100 since rate and extent of CC not known Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of climate impact reductions by implementing measures to reduce impacts = climate change adaptation Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 9

10 Project Method (1) Benefits assessed under the project: those resulting from adaptive actions to 2020 and future decades. The selected CC impacts are those selected as priorities by project experts; no comprehensive coverage of all potential impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 10

11 Method (2) Qualitative assessment Describe various forms of impacts resulting from CC and of possible actions to reduce the impacts Categorise benefits of adaptation actions in terms of: Economic Social Environmental Health Data from in-country reviews & other assessments Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 11

12 Method (3) Quantitative assessment Data on historical analogues of extreme weather events likely to become more frequent May be available from media reports and monitoring/emergency service agencies Modelled impacts and benefits of adaptation action: from existing analyses and new estimates of effectiveness of adaptation measures Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 12

13 Method (4) Damages from flooding in area of interest (e.g. average annual total market plus non-market damages of flood events) Gross benefit of planned adaptation ( reduction in average annual total damages from e.g., increasing standards of flood defenses) (C) Total future damages with projected climate change and baseline Increment in residual total damages relative to today (impacts of climate change and socio-economic change not adapted to because either not economic or not feasible) Level of current total damages (B) Total future damages with projected baseline (D) Total future damages (projected climate change and baseline ) with planned adaptation (A) Total future damages with static baseline Time Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 13

14 Summary of Identified Climate Change Impacts: ENPI East Countries Climate Variable Direct Impact (Sectoral/Cross-sectoral) Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russia Ukraine Temperature Means Ecosystems X X X X Energy X Temperature Variability Health X X X X X Precipitation Means Water - resources X X X X X Water - desertification X X Water - Agriculture X X X X Precipitation Variability Forest fire X Infrastructure/Floods X X X X X Sea Level Rise Mean Coasts X X X X Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 14

15 Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative Environmental benefits Description Ecosystem condition improvements - Development of protected corridors for species migration is being promoted on a regional basis. - Pro-active forest management strategies being developed to protect diversity of wood species and composition of forests; as well as the accessibility of forests for population recreation purposes and role of forests in fire control Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 15

16 Results (2) Health benefits Description Lower incidence of acute health impacts - The introduction of heat warning systems in urban areas should be effective in reducing the mortality and morbidity consequences of vulnerability to heatwaves. - Disease monitoring systems may be used to contain the spread of vector-borne diseases that may spread as a consequence of flood events or changes in temperature vectors Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 16

17 Results (3) Social benefits Description Improved quality of life Reduced health effects Investments in water, soil and coastal restoration for adaptation purposes may help to improve community well-being and provide new opportunities for employment and recreation Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 17

18 Results (4) Economic benefits Protect current production. Description - Adaptation to threats to agricultural yield from water scarcity, through more efficient management practices would result in some protection of farm incomes and local economies. - Increase in demand for products and processes that result in greater adaptation, e.g. Investment in coastal defence systems boosts construction sector. Exploit new opportunities Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas. These tourism benefits will be realised if, for example, coastal protection and management reduces the threat to coastal amenities Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 18

19 Case study: Moldova qualitative benefits Benefits of adapting to reduced water resource availability - from reduced water use or investment into more secure supply - can be found in facilitating its uses. Social/economic benefits: Increased availability secures growing & marketing of food. Employment opportunities in agricultural sector maintained Considering the impact of locally grown goods on food prices, the maintained yields of crops secure a competitively and socially desirable pricing. Health benefits: Food security/clean drinking water sources lead to an improved health and the avoidance of malnutrition and related diseases. Positive environmental benefits in slowing down land erosion Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 19

20 Summary of Identified Benefits from CC Adaptation: ENPI East Countries Benefit Source of Benefit Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Russia Ukraine Health Heatwave - respiratory/cardio X X X morbidity/mortality Environmental Coastal protection - wetlands X Forest protection X X Biodiversity Plans implementation X X X Economic Investment in flood protection X X X X Coastal protection - salinisation Investment in water storage &efficiency inc. Ag X X X X Energy savings X Agricultural benefits - temperatures X X Tourism benefits - temperatures X X Social Coastal restoration - community X Arising from other categories (Ec., Soc., and Env) X X X Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 20

21 Quantitative benefits: Case Study Armenia: Projected volume of snow 7-11% by 2030, water balance of Lake Sevan will fall significantly. river flow will reduce by 0.6 billion cubic meters by areas needing irrigation will expand, otherwise: a decline of 8-14% in the yields of the main agriculture crops is projected (9-13% for cereals, 7-14% for vegetables, 8-10% for potato and 5-8% for fruits). Benefits of investment in effective irrigation (adaptation measure): agricultural yield losses prevented Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 21

22 Conclusions (1) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: Water resource use (domestic, industry, agriculture) Resulting from, e.g. technological measures including: reduction of losses in the irrigation and drinking-household water supply system through repairs of the systems and pipelines; accumulation of moisture (water) in irrigated fields through storage of snow or snow melt water; replenishment of moisture through early spring sowing of crops in rows, deepening irrigation ditches and using polyethylene covers Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 22

23 Conclusions (2) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: Coastal areas (settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems) Resulting from, e.g. construction and maintenance of coastal protection measures Appropriate land use zoning Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 23

24 Conclusions (3) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: Areas of flood vulnerability ((property, infrastructure, human health, agriculture) Resulting from, e.g. Investment in higher dikes Appropriate land use zoning Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 24

25 Conclusions (4) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: Urban Heat Islands (health risks of heat-waves) Resulting from, e.g. Heat alert systems implementation Awareness raising re. need for continual hydration Investment in cool rooms Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 25

26 Conclusions (5) CC Adaptation Benefits exacerbate those identified in other parts of BA Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway ( in climatic variable exposure - impact) BA project under-estimates since does not include all CC Impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 26

27 Recommendations Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased planned adaptation Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and benefits effects of planned adaptation over vulnerable populations Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 27

28 Outstanding questions What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular? What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results? Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 28

29 Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/ ) Thank you for your attention