Efficiency, Sufficiency, Sustainability: allocation in river basins. Nile Basin Initiative Experience

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1 Efficiency, Sufficiency, Sustainability: allocation in river basins Reconciling current and future water demands in a highly stressed river basin Nile Basin Initiative Experience

2 Climate change Population Growth; Economic growth New technologies New governance regimes The water management challenge Today At some future time, say 2050 Technical solution to water management challenges under enabling legal, policy and institutional frameworks 2

3 Addressing water management challenges in Nile Basin 11 countries with total population over 415 Million doubling every years so far; projected to reach 1 BN by 2050 Fast growing economies rapidly growing demands for energy, water 2030 (?) (?) Shared river basin with scarce, finite water resources facing climatic uncertainty (?) Technical solution to water management challenges under enabling legal, policy and institutional frameworks

4 Current water availability and demand WN malakal BN at Diem Didndir Rehad u/s Atbara Annual Yield of Sub-basins (BCM) Estimated Water Demands, BCM/year Evaporation from Dams, M and I, Irrigation, Evaporation from Dams M and I Irrigation The Nile currently supplies water for approx. 5.4 Mill ha of irrigated land basin wide in diverse hydro-climatic zones. Estimated total irrigation water demand basin-wide is approximately 83 BCM/yr; Ambitious plans of countries the demand is expected to increase substantially Basin managed largely through individual country efforts 4

5 Projections Total basin dam storage capacity is expected to rise from the current 200 BCM to > 400 BCM; Hydropower capacity to increase from 5600 MW to > 26,000 MW Irrigated area is expected to increase from the current 5.4 Mill. ha to about 9.4 Million by ca. 2050; Governance regime: more effective cooperation basin waer challenges addressed mainly through cooperation (?) Projected installed capacities of hp plants, 2050; MW Burundi DR Congo Egypt Ethiopia Kenya Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Tanzania 0.00 Growth in Cumulative Storage Capacities of Dams (BCM) South Sudan, Distribution of future irrigation areas by country ('000 ha) Tanzania, 20 Uganda, 9.7 Rwanda, Kenya, Sudan, 2,911 Ethiopia, 1511 Burundi, 0 Dr Congo, 0 Egypt,

6 Future scenarios Level of WR Infrastructure Expansion (Irr, Hp, Dams) All identified projects (full development; the reference) 75 % of identified projects 50 % of identified projects 25 % of identified projects CC Dry Climate Historical CC - Wet Improvements in irrigation efficiency Current level 50 % improvement for new dev. Up to 50 % Improvements for all

7 Environmental flow Basin-wide Agricultural scenarios and water saving options Exploring technical solution options cooperatively Water resources modeling framework Improved M and I water demand and water saving options Enhancing water supply (water re-use, Desal) Coordinated Dam Cascade Operation Hydro-economic Optimization Strategic Options for cooperative WRM and WRD scenarios Climate change scenarios Demographic and Economic scenarios Country baseline data Green water effective use Land-use/Cover scenarios and impacts on hydrology SW GW Conjunctive use Country (Master) Plans 7

8 Summary Planned water resources developments are needed and expected to yield substantial benefits to the basin countries; However, if future water resources investments are not coordinated and optimized basin-wide, there are risks of incurring substantial shortfalls; the deficit is likely to grow to over 50 percent of historically available water supply Climate change scenarios analyzed indicate greater need for adaptive management to reduce vulnerability; A number of options have been identified by member countries for addressing the growing imbalance between supply and demand; 8

9 .... conclusion Projected Aggregate water demand could reach ca percent of current availability. If measures are not taken to manage the imbalance, there is risk that total water demand can outstrip available resources soon; Member countries working together to explore various options to address the growing water demands more sustainably.