A Case Study for Standardizing Climate Change Impact Assessment and Planning Steven McNulty Southern Research Station

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1 Addressing Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Forest Planning A Case Study for Standardizing Climate Change Impact Assessment and Planning Steven McNulty Southern Research Station steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu

2 Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options A USDA Forest Service Partnership Southern Research Station :: Forest Planning :: Forest Management :: Cooperative Forestry

3 TACCIMO Fundamentals 1. Planning Current management conditions and capabilities to address climate change 2. Science Physical and biological impacts of climate change 3.TACCIMO Report Customized and synthesized account of science and potentially impacted planning

4 TACCIMO Concept Objective provide land owners, managers, and planners with the best and most current climate change science available facilitate the review of climate change forecasts, factors impacting ecosystems, and management options create an optional report to aid in planning and management analysis Rationale address new information and research on climate change collaboratively bring current research together with current forecasts identifying information and data that are regionally specific Product Development web-based information interface that is easily maintained through stable linkages to information sources, forecasts, and tools this information interface (TACCIMO) will be used to evaluate climate change factors impacting ecosystems, management options, and links to forest planning

5 Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Input TACCIMO Product Model Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Direct Impacts Management Options Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions Output TACCIMO Basic Template Report (State and Private) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Feedback Tracking Allow Users To: Provide Feedback on Content and Function Recommend New Sources Update Plan Database Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Current Situation Report (CSR) Readily Composed From Planning Template Report

6 Land and Resource Management Plans Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems User Interfaces Desired Conditions & Objectives Sourced from current NF Plans Attributes: National Forest Plan Area Headings Planning Optional Direct Impacts Database Quotations from peer reviewed literature Emphasis on impacts to forests Attributes: Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Headings Text Based TACCIMO Product Model Linked TACCIMO Attributes: Linked Design Criteria Sourced from current NF Plans Attributes: National Forest Plan Area Headings Output Li Air Quality Biodiversity Climate Change Climate Variability Diseases Disturbance Drought Flooding Forest Productivity Forestland Conversion Insects Invasive Species Recreation Timber Water Wildfire Planning Template Report Linked Linked Linked Output Monitoring Questions Sourced from current NF Plans Attributes: National Forest Plan Area Headings Management Options Database Quotations from peer reviewed literature Emphasis on management/ abatement Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Headings Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Interactive Tools: Carbon Calculator Water Stress Model Geospatial

7 TACCIMO Product Model Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Direct Impacts Management Options Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions * Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions Input Output TACCIMO Basic Template Report (State and Private) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Feedback Tracking Allow Users To: Provide Feedback on Content and Function Recommend New Sources Update Plan Database Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Current Situation Report (CSR) Readily Composed From Planning Template Report

8 Input TACCIMO Development: Direct Impacts & Management Options Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Climate Change Factors Direct Impacts Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Direct Source Impacts Literature Management Supporting Literature Options Supporting Geographic Literature Location Geographic Location Interactions

9 TACCIMO Product Model Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Direct Impacts Management Options Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions * Input Output Basic Template Report (State and Private) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems TACCIMO Feedback Tracking Allow Users To: Provide Feedback on Content and Function Recommend New Sources Update Plan Database * Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Current Situation Report (CSR) Readily Composed From Planning Template Report

10 Input Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions TACCIMO Development: Forest Plans Development In Progress El Yunque, Mississippi, Ozark- St. Francis, Nantahala-Pisgah, and Ouachita will also be included

11 * Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Input TACCIMO Product Model Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Direct Impacts Management Options Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions Output TACCIMO Basic Template Report (State and Private) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Feedback Tracking Allow Users To: Provide Feedback on Content and Function Recommend New Sources Update Plan Database Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Current Situation Report (CSR) Readily Composed From Planning Template Report

12 TACCIMO Development: Geospatial Resource Input Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Temperature and precipitation forecast data accessible in 1/8 o resolution (~12km) Water availability budgets, forest productivity, biodiversity, and other risk forecasts will be available. Context layers (infrastructure, geography, etc.) Modeling Group Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling & Analysis Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research / Met Office National Center for Atmospheric Research US Dept of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM CGCM3.1 UKMO- HadCM3 CCSM3 GFDL-CM2.1 Scenario Emissions Path Description SRES A2 SRES A1b "higher" emissions path "middle" emissions path technological change and economic growth more fragmented, slower, higher population growth technological change in the energy system is balanced across all fossil and non-fossil energy sources, where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source SRES B1 "lower" emissions path rapid change in economic structures toward service and information, with emphasis on clean, sustainable technology. Reduced material intensity and improved social equity

13 Projected Climate Change 4 Global Circulation Models 3 IPCC Scenarios Temperature Precipitation Interactive Tools Input TACCIMO Product Model Climate Change Factors Impacting Ecosystems Direct Impacts Management Options Supporting Literature Geographic Location Interactions Land and Resource Management Plans Desired Conditions Objectives Design Criteria Monitoring Questions * Output TACCIMO * Basic Template Report (State and Private) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Feedback Tracking Allow Users To: Provide Feedback on Content and Function Recommend New Sources Update Plan Database Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Current Situation Report (CSR) Readily Composed From Planning Template Report

14 TACCIMO Development: Reports Standard Report Generator Output Planning Template Report (USFS Planners) Exportable Customized Maps and Figures Factors Impacting Ecosystems Management Options Related Plan Components Export Numerous Formats Available for Export: PDF, Excel, CSV, etc.

15 TACCIMO Text Interface Search Report

16 TACCIMO Geospatial Interface

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23 TACCIMO Model Interface Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI): A National Scale Water Supply and Demand Model Water Supply at the HUC Watered Scale = PPT ET v + Groundwater Supply + Returnflow from Four Major Users Human Water Demand at the HUC Watered Scale = Water Use (Irrigation-livestock, Thermoelectric, Domestic, Industrial-Mining)

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31 Project Timeline