Orienting the Military to the Threat of Climate Change

Transcription

1 Orienting the Military to the Threat of Climate Change LtCol Jesse A. Kemp USMC Research Advisor: Dr. Greg Foster 1

2 BLUF Combatant Commanders should develop a systematic environmental intelligence capability IOT develop a better understanding of future operating environments. Key arguments: Collect intelligence in advance where the U.S. is most likely to be deployed Knowledge of how to collect intelligence rapidly in event of deployments to unexpected places Draw out connections between environmental causes/stresses and particular types of traditional threats (e.g. piracy) Improve ability to target Theater Security Cooperation Plan to specific partner countries Opportunities for U.S.-China cooperation as counter-balance to greater competition in other areas. 2

3 Agenda Relevance Linkages & Tie-ins Methodology Examples 3

4 Collaboration 4

5 Climate Change and its relevance to the U.S. Military Clear ties between Climate Change and National Security, yet few concrete suggestions of how to incorporate climate change into military planning or operations. 5

6 Environmental Security Water Scarcity Population Density Food & Energy Demands Natural Disaster Propensity Health / Pandemic Threats Climate change + underlying environmental vulnerabilities elevated risk 6

7 Environment & Security Linkages 83% Correlation 71% Correlation 7

8 Environmental Intelligence Water as an organizing principle: Basic human need / dignity Food / energy security Economic growth, poverty reduction Health and sanitation Climate change vulnerability & natural disaster propensity Promotes cooperation & coordination with interagency & NGO partners Source: Dr. Arron Salzberg (U.S. Department of State) 8

9 Water and Harbingers of Conflict or Collapse Water stress: High demand low supply / degrading quality No political will / government commitment Unilateral development Rapid changes Weak institutions Arab Spring Uprising (Egypt) Syrian Civil War Yemen Existing animosities Source: Dr. Arron Salzberg (U.S. Department of State) 9

10 Methodology To integrate climate change in operational planning, DoD must develop a means for environmental intelligence. Water as an organizing principle for developing environmental intelligence capabilities: Water and Food Water and Energy Water and Sanitation Water and Natural Disasters Water and Climate Change 1. Establish baseline environmental vulnerabilities (via open sources & collaboration). 2. Use risk baseline to assess additive climate change threats. 3. Develop climate change threat scenarios underpinned by scientific data

11 Food Security & Water Stress Source: Dr. Arron Salzberg (U.S. Department of State) 11

12 Asia-Pacific Environmental Security Overlay 12

13 Weather and Climate Spectrum Owen Shieh (2013) 13

14 El Nino Asia-Pacific Scenario Development Scenario 1: Wind speeds and wave heights modulate maritime piracy. Scenario 2: Climate-induced food insecurity sparks social unrest. Scenario 3: Warmer ocean fuels South China Sea conflicts. Scenario 4: Heavy rainfall and warmer weather cause disease emergence. Scenario 5: Abnormal winter weather plagues North Korea. Scenario 6: Typhoons in Asia increase security risks. 14

15 A Case Study of Bangladesh National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) Ministry of Environment and Forests Government of the People s Republic of Bangladesh 15

16 Way Forward Develop climate intelligence capabilities and integrate into strategic & operational planning. Integrate DoD plans with USAID strategic objectives to ensure complimentary engagements; establish success metrics. Use climate change scenarios to establish priority engagements, develop detailed response plans and identify capacity shortfalls.

17 Questions? 17