Your Energy Future A Nuclear Role?

Transcription

1 Your Energy Future A Nuclear Role? Richard Wolfson Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics Professor, Environmental Studies Middlebury College Center for Nonproliferation Studies Virtual Science Challenge Online Conference November 1, 2012 How Much Energy Do We Use? More appropriate question: At what rate do we use energy? That rate is called power Energy is stuff, power is the rate at which it s used or generated Alternate version of question: At what rate do you, as a resident of twenty-first century industrialized society, use energy? How s that compare with the rate at which your own body uses energy? 1

2 Your Body s Power: 100 watts Credits Left: Tad Merrick Photography, from Energy, Environment, and Climate Right: Your own body Your Energy Use Produces energy at the rate of 100 watts Average North American Use energy at the rate of about 10,000 watts 10 kilowatts (kw) 100 energy servants Average Russian: 6 kw 60 energy servants 2

3 Your Energy Use: US You! Some of your energy uses! Your energy servants! Your Energy Use: Russia You! Some of your energy uses! Your energy servants! 3

4 Some Small Energy Numbers iphone: few mw to ~1 W Desk lamp: 60 W Laptop computer: 80 W TV: 250 W Stove burner: 1,500 W Clothes dryer: 5,000 W Home heat/cool: 10,000-40,000 W Prius hybrid, 60 mph: 50,000 W Hummer H2, 60 mph: 200,000 W Solar energy on 1 square meter, noon Sun: 1000 W Rosatom floating nuclear stations, 70 MWe, 300 MWth Agua Caliente Solar Project, AZ: 397 MW peak Vermont Yankee Nuclear Plant, VT: 650 MW Hoover dam, AZ/NV: 2 GW Volgodonsk Nuclear Plant, RU: 4.1 GW 3 Gorges Dam, China: 23 GW Some Big Energy Numbers World energy consumption: 16 trillion W (16 terawatts; 16 TW) U.S. energy consumption: 3.4 trillion W (3.4 TW) Russian energy consumption: 860 billion W (0.86 TW) Oil reserves, ANWR: 6-16 billion barrels (2 TW-year) World oil reserves: 1 trillion barrels (200 TW-year) Solar energy falling on entire Earth: 174 quadrillion W (174,000 TW; 2.5 trillion barrels of oil equivalent per day) 4

5 Energy: Where s it Come From? World Nuclear 5% Gas 24% Hydro 7% Other 1% Oil 33% Coal 30% Nuclear 9% Hydro 3% Gas 26% Other 6% United States Coal 20% Oil 36% Nuclear 6% Hydro 5% Gas 56% Other 0.1% Coal 13% Russia Oil 20% Sources World & Russia: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011 data; US: EIA/DOE Annual Energy Review 2009 Table 1.3!! Energy Sources: Mostly Fossil Fuels World: 87% United States: 82% Russia: 89% All others 13% Fossil fuels 87% 5

6 Why Wean Ourselves from Fossil Fuels? We re wrecking our planet: Oil spills Mining Strip/ mountaintop Acid mine drainage Black lung disease New York, 1950s Air pollution Smog Acid rain Particulates Coal ash slurry Mercury ~24,000 US deaths/year from fossil-fueled power plants Our Energy Future: The First Step You! Some of your energy uses! Your energy servants! 6

7 Earth s Energy Endowment Reflected sunlight 30% Incident sunlight 99.98% Solar flow Infrared radiation 70% 70% Direct conversion to thermal energy 46% Thermal energy Tidal flow Tidal energy Photosynthesis 0.08% Evaporation 23% 1% Fossil fuels Storage in water vapor Energy of wind and currents 0.007% Decay 0.008% Plants Animals Human uses % Nuclear fuels % Motion of Earth and Moon Geothermal flow 0.025% Energy in Earth s interior Doing the Numbers Reflected sunlight 30% Incident sunlight 99.98% Solar flow Infrared radiation 70% Solar flow: 174,000 TW Geothermal flow: 40 TW 70% Tidal flow: 3 TW Photosynthesis 0.08% Evaporation 23% 1% Direct conversion to thermal energy 46% Fossil fuels Storage in water vapor Energy of wind and currents 0.007% Decay Thermal energy 0.008% Plants Animals Human uses % Nuclear fuels Tidal flow % Motion of Earth and Moon Geothermal flow 0.025% Energy in Earth s interior Tidal energy Human energy consumption rate: 16 TW Fossil reserves: ~1200 TW-year Nuclear fission reserves: ~ TW-year Nuclear fusion reserves: 500 billion TW-year 7

8 Nuclear Fission Reserves: TW-year; Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Shin-Kori, Korea 6.8 GW, Indian Point, NY 2 GW, Fukushima Daiichi, Japan 4.7 GW, Superphénix breeder, France: 1.2 GW, 1984 Nuclear Fission: Safer Reactors? Reserves: TW-year; Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Generation III+ Passive safety systems Standardized construction Westinghouse AP1000 Under construction in Asia; licensed in US Generation IV Radically new designs; faster, hotter Burn long-lived nuclear waste Breed fuel from fertile but non-fissile isotopes Still decades away Sodium Fast Reactor 8

9 Nuclear Fission: A Renaissance? Reserves: TW-year; Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Nuclear power reactors, worldwide Total capacity: 0.37 TW, 12% of world electrical energy in Operating reactors Under construction U.S. license applications Nuclear Fission: A Renaissance? Reserves: TW-year; Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Today IAEA 2030 projection Nuclear capacity, GW 0 % Nuclear electricity Data source: IAEA 9

10 Nuclear Fusion Reserves: 500 billion TW-year; Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Magnetic confinement Inertial confinement ITER Experimental fusion reactor: 50 MW in, 500 MW out 2027 (?) National Ignition Facility, LLNL: Scientific breakeven 2012 (?) Direct Solar Energy Rate: 174,000 TW global * ; Humanity: 16 TW * ~100,000 TW at surface Concentrated solar-thermal, 2-axis tracking (90 MW, CA) Suncatcher concentrated solar-thermal, 3-axis tracking, (25 kw each, 1.5 MW total, Arizona); 1.5 GW planned Concentrated solar-thermal, power towers (30 MW, Spain) 10

11 Direct Solar Energy Rate: 174,000 TW global * ; Humanity: 16 TW Photovoltaic power * ~100,000 TW at surface India: 214 MW, 2012 Maine: 4 kw, 1996 Arizona: 397 MW, 2014 Ontario: 97 MW, 2010 Germany: 91 MW, 2011 Spain: 60 MW, 2008 Indirect Solar Energy: Hydropower Rate: 200 TW global; Humanity: 16 TW Hoover Dam Colorado River AZ/NV 1935; 2.1 GW 3 Gorges, China ; 23 GW Belden s Falls, VT 1913; 1.6 MW 1988: 4.1 MW John Day Dam Columbia River, WA 1971; 2.2 GW 11

12 Indirect Solar Energy: Wind Rate: 200 TW global; Humanity: 16 TW Carleton College 2004; 1.65 MW Offshore wind farm, Denmark 2009; 209 MW Enercon E MW Jaisalmer Wind Park, India 2012; 1.1 GW Roscoe Wind Complex Texas: 2010; 782 MW Indirect Solar Energy: Biomass Rate: 133 TW global; Humanity: 16 TW McNeil generating station, VT 1954; 54 MW Middlebury College biomass boiler 2009; 5 MW thermal Corn ethanol Biodiesel Algae 12

13 Hydrogen! Reserves: 0 Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Electricity! Reserves: 0 Humanity: 16 TW-year/year Future of Energy: Near Term Fossil fuels continue Gas substitutes for coal Coal with CCS Higher CAFE standards Carbon tax (?) 13

14 Future of Energy: Near Term Growth in renewables Wind 32%/year 200 GW 16 TW in 14 years! World installed wind power capacity Solar 40 GW World installed PV capacity But a long way to go World Hydro Nuclear 6% 5% Gas 24% Other 1% Oil 34% Coal 30% Future of Energy: Near to Mid Term Nuclear fission New reactors, especially Asia and E. Europe Gradual advances in LWRs Little increase in nuclear contribution to world energy supply by 2030 Advanced reactors midcentury? Sodium Fast Reactor Westinghouse AP1000 Today IAEA 2030 projection % Nuclear electricity 14

15 Future of Energy: Long Term Dominated by direct solar and/or fusion Hydrogen or synfuels for vehicles Hydrolysis or photolysis of water Bioengineering for fuel production Increased electrical energy use Superconducting power transmission More limited roles for Indirect solar (wind, currents, waves) Advanced fission, breeders, fission/fusion hybrids Future of Energy: Long Term Solar flow: 174,000 TW Fusion reserves: 500 billion TW-year Human consumption: 16 TW 15