State of the Ecosystem Report: Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine

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1 State of the Ecosystem Report: Georges Bank and Gulf of Maine Northeast Fisheries Science Center Sean Lucey, reporting on behalf of many Northeast Fisheries Science Center contributors New England Fishery Management Council 17 April 2017

2 State of the Ecosystem reports, Shorter, targeted at fishery management councils Similar docs in other regions Presented to NEFMC Presented to MAFMC SSC September 2016 To both Councils April

3 Current revision: new outline Big picture Humans Resource species Protected species Ecosystem base Physics Climate 3

4 Start with an ecosystem conceptual model Highlight linkages Understand how human well-being is affected by changing conditions 4

5 4/18/2017 5

6 U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 6

7 Summary: performance relative to objectives 3

8 Single species objectives: Only 40% of stocks managed by the NEFMC are meeting objectives 15 are within target ranges 9 exceed F rates and/or below B reference points 14 have unknown status

9 How to read the plots Recreational participation, 10 6 n A B Significant long term trend Most recent 10 years Standard deviation Significant short term trend Year

10 Functional groups of species

11 Proportion managed by NEFMC All plots include totals for the region including species not managed by the NEFMC Table below shows the average proportion of managed stocks over the past 5 years 11

12 Seafood production: Landings Seafood production increasingly relies on benthos and benthivores (scallops, lobsters) Other groups are stable or decreasing in landings

13 Seafood production: Landings Seafood production increasingly relies on benthos and benthivores (scallops, lobsters) Other groups are stable or decreasing in landings 13

14 Seafood production: Mariculture Collected state by state Able to gather information from the state of Maine and Rhode Island RI Oysters ME Salmon ME Blue Mussels ME Trout ME Oysters 14

15 Profits objective Majority of Gulf of Maine revenue is from a single species not managed by the council (Lobster) Majority of Georges Bank revenue is from a single species (scallops) 15

16 Profits objective Majority of Gulf of Maine revenue is from a single species not managed by the council (Lobster) Majority of Georges Bank revenue is from a single species (scallops) 16

17 Recreational opportunities objective Recreational opportunities from fishing have also increased over the long term, according to numbers of anglers (A) and angler trips (B). However, there has been a significant decline over the past 10 years which may have started with the 2008 economic collapse, though recovery of recreational indices has not matched recovery in the wider economy. 17

18 Human community characteristics and risk New England communities have a higher reliance on commercial activities than the Mid Atlantic Downeast Maine has a stronger reliance than other parts of the region Commercial engagement Commercial reliance Recreational reliance Recreational engagement 18

19 Human community characteristics and risk Sea level rise risk Climate vulnerability Catch diversity New England region has relatively low risk from sea level rise Moderate to high reliance on species vulnerable to climate Generally low catch diversity especially in the Gulf of Maine 19

20 Stability objective Stability is addressed with indices of commercial fleet and species revenue diversity. These show long term declines in the New England, which may raise a caution flag for stability within the industry, but requires further investigation into mechanisms. Number of fleets Fleet revenue diversity Species revenue diversity 20

21 Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends Biomass trends for aggregated trophic levels are similar across seasons Forage fish and benthos show long term increases Higher trophic levels have stable or increasing trends Largely driven by non-commercial species 21

22 Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends Spring Fall 22

23 Biomass and trophic structure: survey trends Spring Fall 23

24 Biomass and trophic structure: diversity Diversity has increased in the Gulf of Maine Remained stable or decreased on Georges Bank 24

25 Fish productivity: condition, reproduction Additional indicators in this report suggest a note of caution for the aggregate productivity of commercial fish species in the region Fish weight per length dropped in 2000, recovering recently? Aggregate numbers of small fish per large fish biomass on the survey declining? 25

26 Protected species productivity While there are few time series for protected species, the North Atlantic right whale may be declining over the most recent few years after a slow but steady increase. Common terns have a longterm increase while Artic terns have decreased Further, signals from the wider northwest Atlantic suggest a decrease in forage fish energy content. Minimum n alive Year

27 Base of the food web Smaller less energy dense zooplankton have been increasing Primary production has been average 27

28 Temperature and Climate conditions Temperature is increasing in long term sea surface records as well as surface and bottom measurements from surveys. The seasonal temperature signal also shows sustained warming. 28

29 Temperature and Climate conditions Bottom Temperature (A: April, B: October) 2016 Seasonal Surface Temperature Gulf of Maine Georges Bank 29

30 Temperature and Climate conditions Warming waters have impacts on the ecosystem that can be complex due to differential impacts at the species level, including observed shifts in species distribution and changes in productivity as thermal habitats shift 30

31 Temperature and Climate conditions 31

32 Temperature and Climate conditions Regional climate indices show a northward movement of the Gulf Stream north wall which can be a local mechanism for increased temperature and species redistribution. Daily variation in sea surface temperature is increasing. Deep ocean circulation is weakening, leading to the northward Gulf Stream shift and enhancing sea level rise. Gulf Stream North Wall, latitude Year Gulf of Maine Georges Bank

33 Website: 33

34 Questions U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Fisheries Page 34