Big Picture Industry Potential

Transcription

1 Big Picture Industry Potential Brendan Jordan, NW CERT Cellulosic Product and Industry Forum April 25, 2007

2 Presentation Summary GPI Background Current State of the Industry Drivers for future development Future of cellulosic ethanol, biorefineries, biomass as energy crops (heat and process heat) Where are we headed? A look at various industry perspectives Managing for multiple benefits

3 Formed in 1997 Bring together diverse leaders to solve critical development issues Current focus: Energy security based on a renewable and carbonneutral energy system Funded by foundations, stakeholders, individuals and government The region we serve We are a 501 (c) 3 nonprofit based in Minneapolis but incorporated in 5 states.

4 No silver bullet solution

5 GPI Convenes Over 100 Stakeholders from 11 States/Provinces Powering the Plains Flagship regional energy policy project for the Dakotas, Iowa, Manitoba, Minnesota and Wisconsin Upper Midwest Hydrogen Initiative Public-private industry and research consortium Coal Gasification Work Group Coal and utility industry executives, state regulators, and NGOs from eight Midwest and Western states North Central Bio-economy Consortium Partnership between Midwest State Ag. Depts, Exp. Stations, and Cooperative Extension M-RETS Technical Review Committee Committee of utilities regulators, utilities and environmental organizations designing and developing the Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System

6 Native Grass Energy Economic production of native grass energy crops; Conversion to biofuels and other high value products Providing multiple benefits: Soil and water Habitat Farmer income GHG reduction

7 North Central Bio-economy Consortium (NCBEC) Mission: To identify and jointly act upon opportunities to ensure our region s move toward greater energy independence, utilization of biomass feedstocks and development of robust bioeconomies. Land Grant Experiment Stations Cooperative Extension State Depts of Ag. IN, IL, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI

8 Current State of the Industry More than 4 billion gallons annual production today Federal RFS of 7.5 billion by 2012 SOTU: 35 billion gallons by 2017 DOE projection: 60 billion gallons by x25 But, according to Corn Growers, only billion gallons per year are possible from corn.

9 Minnesota s Ethanol Industry: plants, 550 million gallons production plants under construction, projected 620 million gallons production Minnesota s E20 mandate by 2013 requires 564 million gallons Sources: MDA, MPCA

10 MN Biodiesel Currently 4 plants, ~63 million gallons capacity Primarily soybean oil, some recycled cooking oil and other feedstocks Many small operations Source: National Biodiesel Board

11 Changing technology Current (US) Moderate displacement of oil and carbon Starch Ethanol Oilseed Diesel Based on grains and seeds only Future: Significant displacement of oil and carbon Enzymatic for liquid fuels and bioproducts Pyrolysis for liquid fuels, charcoal, and chemicals Gasification for natural gas replacement, electricity, and chemicals Rest of Plant, virtually any product of photosynthesis

12 What Emerging Technology Can Also Make Possible Transportation Fuels is a Huge Market, Relatively indiscriminate about feedstocks Flexible technology brings new ability to farm for multiple benefits Soil Water Bio-diversity Wildlife habitat CO2 sequestration Recreation Risk mitigation NS 2004 Perennial mixed grasses are viable energy feedstock BB In In/BB Sw Sw/BB Sw/In Sw/In/BB Species

13 Big Promise of Cellulosic Ethanol Bring the biofuels boom to areas that don t produce a lot of corn and beans Many biofuel crops do well on marginal soils. Cellulosic biofuels may also have an improved environmental profile

14 Many types of biomass Crop residue (e.g. corn stalks, wheat straw). Dedicated energy crops (e.g. switchgrass, miscanthus) Distillers Dry Grains Wood and wood waste Manure and other animal waste Municipal Solid Waste

15 How much biomass is there? Nationwide: 368 million dry tons from forest lands 998 million dry tons from agricultural lands More than 1.3 billion tons total Or, enough to replace more than one third of current US petroleum consumption Source: Biomass as a Feedstock for a Bioenergy and Bioproducts Industry: The Feasibility of a Billion Ton Annual Supply. US Departments of Agriculture and Energy. April 2006

16 National Biomass Resource

17 Resources in the NW CERT Wheat straw Other straw Beet pulp Other crop residues Other mill waste MSW, waste water treatment sludge Switchgrass, perennial grass crops Dedicated woody crops

18 CRP may be a biomass resource

19 Another driver?

20 Current Biopower Primarily wood waste in the wood and paper industry Fibrominn turkey litter burner in Benson, MN

21 District Heat St Paul District Energy

22 Biomass Co-firing/Cogasification Chariton Valley Biomass Project in Chillicothe, IA: 5% co-firing switchgrass with coal at 800MW power plant Switchgrass from CRP Much larger scale co-firing/cogasification in Europe

23 Minnesota s new RES All utilities required to produce 25% from renewables by 2025 Xcel must produce 30% by 2025 Many utilities may turn to biomass Cost/Benefit expensive power, baseload power

24 Economics of biomass Biomass and petroleum: Switchgrass at $50/ton = $18/barrel oil Switchgrass at $40/ton = $15/barrel oil

25 Emerging Biomass Technology Feb. 27, 2007: 6 Cellulosic Biorefinery Projects to Receive up to $325 million from DOE: 130 million gallons/year ethanol Ammonia, heat, power, methanol, hydrogen.

26 DOE Cellulosic Ethanol Projects Abengoa Bioenergy Biomass of Kansas, LLC Alico, Inc of LeBelle, Florida BlueFire Ethanol Inc. of Irvine, CA Poet (formerly Broin) of Sioux Falls, SD (plant in IA) Iogen Biorefinery Partner, LLC (plant in ID) Range Fuels of Broomfield, CO (plant in GA)

27 Various feedstocks Abengoa corn stover, wheat straw, milo stubble, switchgrass ALICO yard, wood, vegetative wastes Poet corn fiber, cobs, and stalks Iogen wheat straw, barley straw, corn stover, switchgrass, rice straw Range wood residues, wood energy crops

28 Not Just Ethanol Abengoa ethanol, heat, power ALICO ethanol, hydrogen, ammonia, heat, power BlueFire ethanol, heat, power Poet ethanol, heat, power Iogen ethanol, heat power Range ethanol, methanol, heat, power

29 Technology - Pyrolysis degrees Celsius Less than one second Biomass is vaporized, and then quenched.

30 Technology - Gasification Biomass competes well with natural gas huge market Many technology platforms and vendors Commercial or nearcommercial Very flexible technology platform Multiple possible co-products

31 Biomass gasification as bridge technology Two conventional ethanol plants installing biomass gasifiers Chippewa Valley Ethanol Company Central Minnesota Ethanol Cooperative These projects are moving incrementally towards cellulosic ethanol There are many applications for process heat in rural areas

32 Simplicity

33 s DOE-Funded Perennial Biomass Research Agronomic research (SDSU) Fuel processing (UND EERC and Ensyn) Economic and policy implications (U of MN and GPI)

34 Monocultures vs Mixtures Switchgrass (Sw), big bluestem (BB), and indiangrass (In) biomass production grown alone and in all 2- and 3-way mixtures. Plots were seeded in 2002 at Brookings, SD. Biomass production (Mg ha -1 ) LSD 0.05 =1.34 a ab bc bc c bc c BB In In/BB Sw Sw/BB Sw/In Sw/In/BB Species BB In In/BB Sw Sw/BB Sw/In Sw/In/BB Species NS 2004

35 Biomass and Birds Findings: Grasslands with greater plant diversity had higher avian richness, occurrence and density. Diversity was similar in harvested and unharvested stands, but actual species differed. Managing for birds and biomass is feasible!

36 Managing for birds and for industry! Seasonal changes in ash content of Chariton Valley, Iowa, switchgrass; similar trend observed with Monona Farms (Pennsylvania) switchgrass

37 Putting carbon back in the soil

38 Managing for multiple Water quality Soil erosion prevention Carbon sequestration and soil health Wildlife benefits Hunting revenues benefits

39 Promise of the Bioeconomy Profitable biorefineries producing energy and high value products; A prosperous rural economy; Energy independence; Production and conversion of biomass that improves: Soil, Water, Wildlife.

40 Many Hurdles to Jump Technology demonstration and commercialization Feedstock Logistics Development of new crops Long term management of perennial crops, sustainable residue removal Public perception Managing environmental risks.

41 Policy Initiatives Biomass Working Group Policy moving in ND, SD, MN Farm Bill Many proposals exist, including proposals to develop perennial bioenergy crops.

42 Low Hanging Fruit Any source of waste biomass (mill waste, MSW, etc) Large rural heat users CRP biomass

43 Accessing our work

44 Thank you!

45 Why biofuels? Now? U.S. Peak

46 Residentia Industrial Electric Power Commercial Transportation Change in CO 2 Emissions, Million tonnes CO Million tonnes CO Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Residential Industrial Electric Power Commercial Transportation Coal Oil

47 Not all biofuels are equal CO2 emissions from alternative fuels Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD) FT (Coal) Gasoline (Tar Sands) FT (Coal CCD) Gasoline Ethanol (Corn Coal) Ethanol (Today) Ethanol (Corn NG) Ethanol (Corn Wet Grains) Ethanol (Corn No Till) Ethanol (Corn Biomass) Ethanol (Cellulose) Ethanol (Cellulose CCD) lbs CO2/gal gasoline equivalent -10 Source: Natural Resources Defense Council 1

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49 Energy markets will cause landscape-level change High land rents, high corn prices are decreasing reenrollment in CRP and other programs Drought tolerant corn is moving into marginal land There are calls for early outs from CRP contracts Conversion of all types of land, including native pasture

50 Potential for landscape level change funded by the biofuels industry