Emissions Data Review

Transcription

1 Emissions Data Review 2002 Attribution Inputs AoH Workgroup Meeting November 16-17, 2005

2 Today s talk EI data and model inputs SMOKE modeling results Display on 2002 attribution pages for AoH Phase II Static pictures as agreed while TSS is in development Broader selection of maps, charts, tables than AoH Phase I Limits of AoH Phase I Describe additions in II these would identify scope of maps, charts, tables for TSS SIP support

3 Source Categories Provided by the RMC Area Area sources except dust sources Off shore Marines shipping in the Pacific Ocean Off shore area sources in the Gulf of Mexico Point Point sources emissions for all RPOs, Can & Mex Off shore point sources in the Gulf of Mexico Mobile On road mobile sources for WRAP RPO On-road mobile sources for CENRAP states On-road mobile sources for MW, VISTAS, & MAINE-VU On-road mobile sources for Can/Mex Off Road Mobile Off road mobile with annual IDA files Off road mobile with monthly or seasonal IDA files

4 Source Categories Provided by the RMC (cont.) Fire WRAP wild, prescribed and agricultural fires Area fires from CENRAP Point sources fires from non WRAP states (CENRAP and VISTAS) Canadian Wild fires/blue Sky algorithm Biogenic Biogenic emissions from BEIS3 for the entire domain Ammonia Ammonia from agricultural sources for CENRAP/MW states Ammonia emissions ag sources for WRAP GIS model Dust Fugitive dust (Ag & construction) for entire domain Road dust for the entire domain Wind blown dust for entire domain Oil and Gas Oil and gas for WRAP states (except CA)

5 Emissions Differences from AoH Phase I Emissions preliminary 2002 EI used in AoH Phase I (pre02d emissions modeling, late 2004) subtracted from [almost] final 2002 EI (base02a emissions modeling, August/September 2005) Point SO2, NOx, PM2.5 Area same Mobile same Nonroad - same Modeling results comparing pre02d AQ results subtracted from base02a AQ results same format as emissions Data by state and source category, in tables, charts, & maps

6 Area Source Emissions - Base02a-pre02d NO X SO 2 Area Source Emissions NOx -100, ,000 Area Source Emissions SO2-100, ,000 VOC PM 2.5 Area Source Emissions VOC -100, ,000 Area Source Emissions PM , ,000

7 Point Source Emissions - Base02a-pre02d NO X SO 2 Point Source Emissions NOx -100, ,000 Point Source Emissions SO2-100, ,000 VOC PM 2.5 Point Source Emissions VOC -100, ,000 Point Source Emissions PM , ,000

8 Mobile Source Emissions- Base02a-pre02d NO X SO 2 Mobile Source Emissions NOX -100, ,000 Mobile Source Emissions SO VOC PM 2.5 Mobile Source Emissions VOC -100, ,000 Mobile Source Emissions PM2.5-10, ,000

9 Off Road Mobile Source Emissions - Base02a-pre02d NO X SO 2 Nonroad Source Emissions NOx -100, ,000 Nonroad Source Emissions SO2-100, ,000 VOC PM 2.5 Nonroad Source Emissions VOC -100, ,000 Nonroad Source Emissions PM2.5-10, ,000

10 [Almost] final 2002 EI Changes/additions for planning02/plan for base02b MT mobile Broomfield County, CO Mexico 1999 NEI All California emissions changed Begin using EGU profiles averaged by state/fuel type Base02a actual emissions as of August/September 2005 Emissions show WRAP+CENRAP+offshore+Canada+Mexico for SO2, NOx, PM2.5, VOC NOx, SO2, PM2.5, NH3 - same for fire, mobile, nonroad, offshore, area, point Dust done as in AoH Phase I page 4-90 Modeling results same AQ impact displays, no source apportionment now, used for MPE

11 All Base02a NO X Combined NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000

12 NO X by Category Area Point NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 Mobile NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 Off Road Mobile NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000

13 NO X by Category (cont.) Fire Oil & Gas NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 NOX Emissions >10,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000

14 All Base02a SO 2 Combined SO2 Emissions >6, ,

15 SO 2 by Category Area Point SO2 Emissions >6, , SO2 Emissions >6, , Off Road Mobile SO2 Emissions >6, , Fire SO2 Emissions >6, ,

16 All Base02a VOC Combined VOC Emissions >24,000 22,000-24,000 20,000-22,000 18,000-20,000 16,000-18,000 14,000-16,000 12,000-14,000 10,000-12,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000

17 VOC by Category Area Point VOC Emissions >24,000 22,000-24,000 20,000-22,000 18,000-20,000 16,000-18,000 14,000-16,000 12,000-14,000 10,000-12,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 VOC Emissions >24,000 22,000-24,000 20,000-22,000 18,000-20,000 16,000-18,000 14,000-16,000 12,000-14,000 10,000-12,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 Biogenic Oil & Gas VOC Emissions >24,000 22,000-24,000 20,000-22,000 18,000-20,000 16,000-18,000 14,000-16,000 12,000-14,000 10,000-12,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000 VOC Emissions >24,000 22,000-24,000 20,000-22,000 18,000-20,000 16,000-18,000 14,000-16,000 12,000-14,000 10,000-12,000 9,000-10,000 8,000-9,000

18 All Base02a NH 3 Combined NH3 Emissions 6,500-99,000 6,000-6,500 5,500-6,000 5,000-5,500 4,500-5,000 4,000-4, ,000

19 NH 3 by Category Area Point NH3 Emissions 6,500-99,000 6,000-6,500 5,500-6,000 5,000-5,500 4,500-5,000 4,000-4, ,000 NH3 Emissions 6,500-99,000 6,000-6,500 5,500-6,000 5,000-5,500 4,500-5,000 4,000-4, ,000 Ammonia Fire NH3 Emissions 6,500-99,000 6,000-6,500 5,500-6,000 5,000-5,500 4,500-5,000 4,000-4, ,000 NH3 Emissions 6,500-99,000 6,000-6,500 5,500-6,000 5,000-5,500 4,500-5,000 4,000-4, ,000

20 All Base02a Dust Combined PM10 (Tons/year) >10,000 8,000-10, ,000

21 Dust by Category Point PMC (Tons/year) >10,000 8,000-10, ,000 Fugitive Dust PM10 (Tons/year) >10,000 8,000-10, ,000 Road Dust PM10 (Tons/year) >10,000 8,000-10, ,000 Windblown Dust PM10 (Tons/year) >10,000 8,000-10, ,000

22 [generation 1] 2018 Base Case EI Base18a emissions show ENVIRON coastal states displays mobile being delivered 2018 base case point and area on the way this week 2018 fire scenarios December Other categories constant

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24 2002 Coastal States Mobile Emissions Summary of 2002 West Coast NOx Emissions (tons per year) Commercial Marine Coastal/In-Shore - Zones 2,3,4 State Total Offshore - Zone 1 Total Near-Port - Zone 3 Inshore - Zone 4 ONROAD NONROAD ** Aircraft Locomotive California 243, , ,550 NA NA 581, ,586 13,917 72,818 Oregon 43,264 41,113 2, , ,599 36, ,386 Washington 58,923 44,692 14,231 3,467 10, ,987 49,870 1,465 22,768 Total 345, , ,933 4,204 12, , ,947 16, ,971 Summary of 2002 West Coast SO2 Emissions (tons per year) Commercial Marine Coastal/In-Shore - Zones 2,3,4 State Total Offshore - Zone 1 Total Near-Port - Zone 3 Inshore - Zone 4 ONROAD NONROAD ** Aircraft Locomotive California 120,240 74,181 46,059 NA NA 4, ,964 Oregon 23,863 23, ,448 5, ,035 Washington 32,965 25,130 7,835 2,483 5,352 5,539 6, ,532 Total 177, ,430 54,637 3,015 5,564 13,022 12, ,532 ** OR and WA estimated by EPA's MOBILE6 model, using traffic activity data and other county-specific inputs; CA emissions provided by CARB from their EMFAC model. ** OR and WA estimated by EPA's NONROAD model; CA emissions provided by CARB. Excludes other nonroad categories listed separately.

25 2018 Coastal States Mobile Emissions Summary of 2018 West Coast NOx Emissions (tons per year) Commercial Marine Coastal/In-Shore - Zones 2,3,4 State Total Offshore - Zone 1 Total Near-Port - Zone 3 Inshore - Zone 4 ONROAD NONROAD Aircraft Locomotive California NA NA Oregon 42,122 19,315 Washington 55,908 26,683 Total Summary of 2018 West Coast SO2 Emissions (tons per year) Commercial Marine Coastal/In-Shore - Zones 2,3,4 State Total Offshore - Zone 1 Total Near-Port - Zone 3 Inshore - Zone 4 ONROAD NONROAD Aircraft Locomotive California NA NA Oregon Washington Total ** OR and WA estimated by EPA's MOBILE6 model, using traffic activity data and other county-specific inputs; CA emissions provided by CARB from their EMFAC model. ** OR and WA estimated by EPA's NONROAD model; CA emissions provided by CARB. Excludes other nonroad categories listed separately.

26 Modeling the future for Regional Haze Planning Version 1 of 2018 Base Case EI Describe plan/schedule Modeling results first do planning02 run - same impact displays as base02a, plus PSAT source apportionment Then do base18a run - same impact displays as base02a and planning02, using same PSAT source apportionment tags as in planning02 Compare planning02 to base18a,b,c for regional haze planning, show changes in emissions and AQ calculated as planning02 minus base18 Use base02a,b for MPE

27 Questions/Next Steps Thanks!