Energy Systems Modeling and Economics Introduction to Energy Systems. Carlos Santos Silva

Transcription

1 Energy Systems Modeling and Economics Introduction to Energy Systems Carlos Santos Silva

2 Japan turns on nuclear power four years after Fukushima The country has been inching back to nuclear energy, turning on its first reactor in mid-august after a two-year blackout, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and many in industry looking to cut fuel bills despite widespread public opposition to atomic power. But the analysis shows that of the other 42 operable reactors remaining in the country, just seven are likely to be turned on in the next few years, down from the 14 predicted in a similar survey last year.

3 2013, Nearly 100% renewable electricity in Portugal in many days In the Spring of 2013, for several days in Portugal, the production of electricity was nearly 100% from renewable resources April 1st 2013

4 2012 India blackouts The July 2012 India blackout was the largest power outage in history, occurring as two separate events on 30 and 31 July The outage affected over 620 million people, about 9% of the world population, or half of India's population, spread across 22 states in Northern, Eastern, and Northeast India. An estimated 32 GW of generating capacity was taken offline in the outage: - July 30 th : the 400 kv Bina-Gwalior line tripped due to electricity use above normal" 300 millions without power - July 31 st : a relay problem near the Taj Mahal 620 million without power

5 July 11th, 2011, Cyprus 12 people were killed, 30 injured on Monday in a powerful explosion and fire at a Cypriot naval base. The blast occurred in a dump housing arms confiscated from a ship which was heading to Syria from Iran in The Vassiliko power station (900MW, 60% of demand) is shut down.

6 January 7th, 2009, Ukrain Russia shut off all gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine, leaving more than a dozen countries scrambling to cope during a winter cold snap. The effects of the gas cutoff reverberated across the continent, where some countries have substantial reserves and others do not. "It is unacceptable that the EU gas supply security is taken hostage to negotiations between Russia and Ukraine," EU spokeswoman Pia Ahrenkilde Hansen said, demanding an immediate resumption of gas supplies.

7 Energy Policy Statement (International Energy Agency) IEA member countries co-operate to increase their collective energy security through: Energy security Energy diversification Economic competitiveness and protecting environment IEA created under OECD framework in 1974 dedicated to responding to physical disruptions in the supply of oil, as well as serving as an information source on statistics about the international oil market and other energy sectors.

8 Portuguese ENERGY STRATEGY 2020 RE.NEW.ABLE

9 Europe Objectives A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources A 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency. Portugal Commitments: 75 Mton of CO2 (-21% compared to 2005 levels) 31% of renewables on final energy consumption 20 ktoe of final energy consumption in 2020

10 Alignment with European strategy Renewable energy penetration of 31% of total final energy consumption 60% of electricity production (44.7% in 2009,52.7% in 2010, 46.8% in 2011) 10% of transportation sector (2.4% in 2009) Reduce total final energy consumption by 10% in 2015 and 20% in 2020 Compared to the projected levels in 2020 (20 ktoe 2005) In 2010, 18.5 ktoe Reduce CO2 emissions Less 20Mton in 2020 (59 Mton in 1990, 82Mton in 2007) Reduce energy dependency 74% in 2020 (83% in 2008) Less 95M barrels of oil

11 Increase renewable energy production (ENE2020) Hydropower 8.6 GW in 2020 (4.8 GW in 2009) Pump storage 575 MW for mini-hydro (324 MW in 2009) Wind 8.5 GW in 2020 (3.5GW in 2009, 5.5GW in 2012) Part of it offshore Solar 1.5GMW in 2020 (150MW in 2009: 19Microgeneartion, 77 PV plants) Introduce mini generation plants (250kW) Promoting CPV (5MW) and CSP (30MW) Increase solar thermal Biomass Implement 250MW Geothermic 250MW 2020 Waves 250MW in 2020

12 Increase renewable energy production (PNAER) Hydropower 9 GW in 2020 (4.8 GW in 2009) / 8.5 GW in 2020 (2013) Pump storage 750 MW for mini-hydro (324 MW in 2009) / 400 MW in 2020 (2013) Wind 6.9 GW in 2020 (3.5GW in 2009, 5.5GW in 2012) 5.3 MW in 2020 (2013) 0.05 GW offshore / 27 MW in 2020 (2013) Solar 1.5 GMW in 2020 (150MW in 2009: 19Microgeneartion, 77 PV plants) / 670 MW in 2020 (2013) Introduce mini generation plants (250kW) Promoting CPV (5MW) and CSP (30MW) / 50 MW in 2020 (2013) Increase solar thermal Biomass 950 MW in MW in 2020 (2013) Geothermic 50 MW MW in 2020 (2013) Waves 150 MW in 2020 (2009) / 6 MW in 2020 (2013) The renewable action plan presented to European Commission (PNAER) is more conservative than ENE2020: more capacity in mature technology less in evolving technology)

13 Methodology Public discussion (ENE2020) Surveys (PNAER)

14 Energy Systems Economics and Modeling

15 Objectives, Topics and Expected Outcomes Objective Main concepts to perform integrated studies on the energy sector Topics Energy characterization (supply and demand) Technologies and carriers economics Energy markets Energy policies Modeling tools Expected Outcomes Evaluate technical, economical and environmental impacts of different technologies Understand energy and environment markets Build reference systems, evaluate scenarios Evaluate energy policies for decision making

16 Program Lectures Date Contents # 1 Sep 30 th Introduction to Energy Systems # 2 Oct 7 th Energy Services # 3 Oct 14 th Energy Demand # 4 Oct 21 th Energy Conversion # 5 Oct 28 nd Electricity # 6 Nov 4 rd Energy Supply # 7 Nov 11 th Energy Systems Modeling # 8 Nov 18 rd Coal, Oil, Gas, CO2 Markets # 9 Nov 25 th Electricity Markets # 10 Dec 2 th Field Visit to REN # 11 Dec 9 th Renewables Energy Economics #12 Dec 16 th Energy Policies

17 Evaluation Assigments (40%) Project (60%) Model an energy system and design policies City Country Factory Schedule Define Team (maximum 3 members) and topic: October 31th Design Model: December 15th Project Report: January 15th

18 Fundamental Concepts

19 Work, Heat, Energy and Power Applying a force on an object to move it over some distance produces work releases heat transforms energy Work (J): measure of motion accomplishment due to the action of a force over a distance and time Heat (J): can be a by-product of work and/or a form of energy Energy (J): capacity of a system to perform work / release heat Power (W=J/s) Rate at which wok is done, or heat released or energy converted Energy = Power x Time

20 Energy Units (IEA) Joule (J) A force of 1 N moving an object for 1 m Heat 1g of air by 1 K Calorie (cal) Heat 1g of water at 14.5º by 1ºC J, food is in Cal (1000 cal) Watt hour (Wh) 1J/s x 3600 s =3600 J Ton of oil equivalent (TOE, TEP) the amount of energy released by burning one ton of crude oil approximately 41.9 GJ / MWh / 7.4 barrels of oil Ton of coal equivalent (TCE) The amount of energy released by burning one ton of coal, approximately 29.3 GJ British Thermal unit (Btu) amount of energy needed to heat 1 pound (0.454 kg) of water at 60º by 1 F J =1.055 kj

21 Energy Definitions Primary Energy Primary energy refers to energy sources as found in the nature Secondary Energy or Final Energy Consumption the result of the transformation of primary energy sources Useful energy the portion of final energy which is actually available after final conversion to the consumer for the respective use. In final conversion, electricity becomes for instance light, mechanical energy or heat. Energy Demand: The requirement for energy as an input to provide products and/or services. Energy Conversion The process of changing one form of energy to another Energy Supply The delivery of fuels to point of consumption, encompassing the extraction, transmission, generation, distribution and storage of fuels

22 Accounting Renewables in Primary Energy (IEA) Partial substitution method The amount of energy that would be necessary to generate an identical amount of electricity in conventional thermal power plants shortcomings difficulty of choosing an appropriate generating efficiency not relevant for countries with a high share of hydro electricity No longer used! The physical energy content method (IEA) Hydro: 100% Nuclear: 33%

23 Energy Balance Energy Economics energy balance of a country is an aggregate presentation of all human activities related to energy, except for natural and biological processes Consumption Supply Products Fossil Fuels Renewable Sources Electricity Heat Total Flows Production Import Export Stock Exchange International Marine/ and Aviation Bunker TPES Transfor mation Conversion Technologies Losses Statistical Differences TFC End Use Sectors Non Energy Use

24 Energy Balance Glossary International marine and aviation bunkers stock changes quantities delivered to sea-going ships or airplanes of all flags, including warships. Stock Changes difference between opening stock levels on the first day of the year and closing levels on the last day of the year of stocks on national territory held by producers, importers, energy transformation industries and large consumers Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Production + imports - exports - international marine bunkers stock changes (IEA) Total Final Energy Consumption (TFC) consumption of primary and derived energy by industry and construction, by transport and by households, agriculture and other consumers

25 Energy Balance (Portugal, 2008, IEA) SUPPLY and CONSUMPTION Coal and Peat Crude Oil Oil Products Gas Nuclea r Hydro Geotherm al, Solar, etc. Combustibl e Renewables and Waste Electrici ty Production Imports Exports International Marine Bunkers** International Aviation Bunkers** Stock Changes TPES Transfers Statistical Differences Electricity Plants CHP Plants Heat Plants Gas Works Oil Refineries Coal Transformation Liquefaction Plants Other Transformation Energy Industry Own Use Losses TFC Industry Transport Other Residential Commercial and Public Services Agriculture / Forestry Fishing Non-Specified Non-Energy Use of which Petrochemical Feedstocks Heat Total*

26 Energy Balance (Angola, 2008, IEA) SUPPLY and CONSUMPTION Coal and Peat Crude Oil Oil Products Gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal, Solar, etc. Combustible Renewables and Waste Electricity Heat Total* Production Imports Exports International Marine Bunkers** International Aviation Bunkers** Stock Changes TPES Transfers Statistical Differences Electricity Plants CHP Plants Heat Plants Gas Works Oil Refineries Coal Transformation Liquefaction Plants Other Transformation Energy Industry Own Use Losses TFC Industry Transport Other Residential Commercial and Public Services Agriculture / Forestry Fishing Non-Specified Non-Energy Use of which Petrochemical Feedstocks

27 Reference Energy System (RES) Network representation of all of the technical activities required to supply various forms of energy to end-use activities.

28 Portugal (2006, DGEG)

29 Energy Flow Chart / Sankey Diagram (US 2007)

30 Energy Flow Chart / Sankey Diagram (US 2025)

31 Energy Flow Chart / Sankey Diagram (World 2005)

32 Sustainable Energy System Social Bearable Equitable Environment Sustainable Economic Viable