Into the Great Wide Open?: The Potential Promise and Perils of Climate Geoengineering

Transcription

1 Into the Great Wide Open?: The Potential Promise and Perils of Climate Geoengineering Dr. Wil Burns, Forum for Climate Engineering Assessment Dominican University September 14, 2015

2 Geoengineering [O]ptions involving large-scale engineering of the environment in order to combat or counteract the effects of Geoengineering changes in atmospheric chemistry. U.S. National Academy of Sciences

3 Scientific & Political Support is Growing for Geoengineering If the world cannot slow emissions or the effects of climate change are more extreme or occur sooner than expected, there may be demands to pursue additional climateintervention technologies about which scientists need a better understanding, Ralph J. Cicerone, President, National Academy of Sciences (2015) Many low GHG concentration scenarios rely on two [geoengineering] techniques, afforestation and biomass energy with carbon dioxide capture and storage, which some studies consider to be comparable with conventional mitigation methods IPCC AR5, WGIII, Ch. 6 (2014) We need to look at geoengineering options. Lord Nicholas Stern (2009) [Study] of geoengineering potential is clearly needed, given our growing inadvertent impacts on the planet... Dr. Stephen Schneider, Stanford University (2008) If mitigation fails... then we ll probably have to resort to some form of geoengineering. Dr. Tom M.L. Wigley, Senior Scientist, Climate & Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research

4 Scientific & Political Support is Growing for Geoengineering There is potential that direct intervention in the climate system could someday save lives and reduce human suffering. Dr. Ken Caldeira, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford University Action is urgently needs on both emissions cuts and clear eyes research and assessment of Shortwave-Radiation Management. Dr. David Keith, Harvard University The first modelling results... call for active scientific research of the kind of geo-engineering. Dr. Paul J. Crutzen, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry We must investigate all possible solutions... To remove geo-engineering from the list of potential contributors is irresponsible. Dr. Robin Bell, Senior Research Scientist, Columbia University Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory [Geoengineering option] should not be off the table... John Holdren, chief climate change advisor to President Obama

5 ROADMAP Potential carbon dioxide removal schemes Potential solar radiation management engineering schemes Governance issues associated with geoengineering research and/or deployment

6 Categories of Climate Geoengineering Carbon Dioxide Removal [CDR] CDR techniques aim to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, directly countering the increased greenhouse effect and ocean acidification. Solar Radiation Management [SRM] SRM techniques aim to reflect a small proportion of the Sun s energy back into space, counteracting the temperature rise caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which absorb energy and raise temperatures.

7 Carbon Dioxide Removal Options Land Interventions BECCS Air Capture Afforestati on Enhance d Weatheri ng Bio-Char Ocean Fertilizati on Macroalgae Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Oceanic Interventions

8 Phytoplankton

9 The Ocean and the Biological Pump

10 Southern Ocean

11 Ocean Iron Fertilization: Geoengineering

12 Correlation of Algae Concentration and CO2 Concentrations

13 Planktonic Collage: What Plankton Species Might Ocean Iron Fertilization Favor?

14 Carbon Dioxide Removal Land Interventions Options BECCS Air Capture Afforestati on Enhance d Weatheri ng Bio-Char Ocean Fertilizati on Macroalgae Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Oceanic Interventions

15 Air Capture

16 Carbon Dioxide Removal Land Interventions Options BECCS Air Capture Afforestati on Enhance d Weatheri ng Bio-Char Ocean Fertilizati on Macroalgae Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement Oceanic Interventions

17 Solar Radiation Management Approaches Surface Albedo Enhancement Cloud Brightenin g Stratosphe ric Aerosol Injection Space Mirrors

18 Geoengineering: Sulfur Injection

19 Potential Temperature Impacts of Sulfur Injection Rasch P J et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2008;366:

20 Spyship or Particle Disperser?

21 Potential Impacts of SRM on Ozone Layer

22 Solar Radiation Management Approaches Surface Albedo Enhancement Cloud Brightening Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Space Mirrors

23 Cloud-Brightening Vessels?

24 Solar Radiation Management Approaches Surface Albedo Enhancement Cloud Brightening Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Space Mirrors

25 SRM Geoengineering: The Space Option

26 UNFCCC Article 4(1) Commitments (d). Promote sustainable management, and promote and cooperate in the conservation and enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including biomass, forests and oceans as well as other terrestrial, coastal and marine ecosystems; [emphasis added]

27 Article 4(1) Commitments UNFCCC (b). Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change; [emphasis added]

28 UNFCCC (1992) Preamble Recalling also that States have, in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and the principles of international law, the sovereign right to exploit their own resources pursuant to their own environmental and developmental policies, and the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other States or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction...

29 Thank you!??????????????