From Upstream to Downstream:

Transcription

1 From Upstream to Downstream: Integrating Climate Change Considerations into Basin Wide Planning for the Mekong River Jeremy Bird Chief Executive Officer Mekong River Commission 1 Outline Basin context and variability Development challenges and planning Superimposing climate change effects MRC adaptation response

2 Government of CAMBODIA Government of LAO PDR Government of THAILAND Government of VIET NAM COUNCIL MRC Governance structure Donor Consultative Group JOINT COMMITTEE National Mekong Committees Mission: MRC SECRETARIAT Dialogue Partners To promote and coordinate sustainable management and development of Mekong water and related resources China Myanmar

3 Glacial melt historically contributes only 0.1% to annual discharge to LMB snowmelt contribution (%) Snow melt is more important and variable March CSN LPB CKN VTE NKI NPNMDHKCMPSE STT KTE 5 Climate variability a reality in the Mekong 1992: dry year 2008: 1:25 year flood in mid-august 2009: dry year - then m river level rise in 7 days

4 Flood variability across the years (flood peak vs flood volume) Annual flood peak (cumecs) mean flood peak cumecs VIENTIANE / NONG KHAI mean flood volume Annual flood km 3 volume (km 3 ) Events outside of the 1δ1 box might be defined as significant drought years and those outside of the 2δ2 box as historically extreme drought years. 7 Opportunity and Challenges for the Basin Renewable energy resources - hydro (30,000 MW) and biofuels; Annual flow of 457 billion m 3 - resource for fisheries, irrigated agriculture, navigation, tourism, environment, industry, domestic etc; Richness in biodiversity and fisheries (2.6 million tons /year); Dynamic population - driving force for economic growth, but rural poverty high; Loss of forest, biodiversity deterioration and environmental degradation; Loss of sediment supply to Delta and nutrients to coastal fisheries Key environmental features Baseline situation 8

5 Proposed Developments in 20-Year Plan Scenarios Definite Future Year Plan

6 Key question Hydropower vs. Fisheries & Livelihoods? World s largest inland fishery 2 to 3 million tons per year > $2.5 billion per year supports livelihoods of tens of millions people % of animal protein intake High diversity 2 nd after Amazon commercially important migrant species 40-70% of fish catch depends on long distance migration Cultural importance e.g. Giant catfish Battery of Asia 30,000 MW hydropower potential approx 50% on Mekong mainstream Foreign exchange = socio-economic development support to poverty reduction programmes Renewable source of energy reduce reliance on fossil fuels Integration of Climate Change into the Basin Development Plan Based on two IPCC Scenarios A2 and B2 A2: High population growth, slower economic growth B2: Moderate population growth and economic development 12

7 Increase Decrease Delay Change in flow due to upper Mekong dams - without climate change 45,000 Baseline Scenario Mean Monthly Flow of Mekong at Kratie 40,000 Change in flow with climate change for different periods up to 2050 (Scenario A2, ECHAM4) mean monthly flow (m 3 /s) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Consequence of climate change Parameters Temperature Rainfall Wind speed Sea level rise +17 cm (20yrs) +30 cm (50yrs) Change in mean annual temperature (ºC) and precipitation(%) during compared to Temperature Rainfall Source: B2 scenario of IPCC provided by EP-CSIRO project,

8 Historical ( ) and Future (2030) Seasonal Fluctuation in the area of Tonle Sap Lake ,000 mean annual flow (m 3 /s) mean annual flow (m 3 /s) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 DRY season CSN LPB CKN VTE NKI NPN MDH KCM PSE STT KTE BL BL A BL B DEV DEV A DEV B WET season Changes in dry and wet season mean flows from upstream to downstream 0 CSN LPB CKN VTE NKI NPN MDH KCM PSE STT KTE BL BL A BL B DEV DEV A DEV B Base: Future:

9 Yellow bars show impact of climate change Impact on flows Increase flows both wet and dry season by 5% in next 20 years and by 10% in longer term Frequency and intensity of flood and drought might increase Year Plan Scenario with climate change Annual average flooding in delta to increase by 3,800 km2 (source: SEA 2010) 18 18

10 20-Year Plan Scenario without climate change 20-Year Plan Scenario with climate change Reduction in salinity intrusion mainly caused by increase in dry season flow of the current developments in the Definite Future Scenarios (272,000 hectares) Impact of climate change on salinity in average year Impact on agriculture in the Lower Mekong Basin Reduced food security not just climate change Mainstream dams will reduce sediment and nutrient load and the extent of floodplain inundation Rainfed and irrigated agriculture could benefit from increased wet season rainfall, but reduce from extended dry periods regionally variable Increased flooding and persistent droughts would result in reduction of crop production in some sub-basin areas, especially in the downstream zone from Kratie Overall reduction in area and quality of agricultural land in the Delta due to saline intrusion (from sea level rise) 20

11 Potential Impact on Biodiversity Changes in temperature and rainfall (amount and distribution) will change habitats Questions over species ability to adjust Changes in sediment and flood timing, frequency and area would induce habitat and species shift 21 Effects on design of infrastructure projects increase in annual runoff bringing with it increases in sediment delivery to reservoirs, increase in flow in the range of 9% to 22%, project structures designed for a certain design flood will see an increased probability of this event occurring higher frequency of tropical storms / flash flooding 22

12 Adaptation Challenge Uncertainties in scenarios, models and climate change impacts on different sectors and communities Different socio-economic priorities and adaptive capacity among the Lower Mekong Member Countries Emerging understanding or different interpretation on combined impact of future development scenario and climate change scenario Poverty, land use change and limited funding put the most vulnerable people to climate change at increasing risk Many of the issues need to be addressed regardless of climate change due to significant natural climate vulnerability and planned infrastructure interventions 23 Mekong Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) Objective: Climate change adaptation planning and implementation is integrated in strategies and plans at various levels and in priority locations throughout the Lower Mekong Basin Scope: A basin wide integrated initiative consistent with IWRM approach and the MRC 1995 Agreement Outcome: Contribution to achieving the MDGs, poverty reduction and improved food security. 24

13 Key Features of CCAI Basin wide, sector and transboundary assessments; A network of local adaptation planning and implementation projects for learning, exchange and monitoring of progress The Mekong Panel on Climate Change (MPCC) Mekong state of climate change adaptation report Mekong adaptation strategy and action plan 25 A Network of Adaptation Projects Learning, exchange, and monitoring through an expanding network of adaptation projects established by Mekong Member Countries and MRC partners Integrated into normal planning systems Four demonstration sites are being implemented by Mekong Member Countries, Kien Giang site in Vietnam is located in SW Mekong Delta where sea level rise, saline intrusion and storm surges are the challenge for adaptation. 26

14 Mekong Panel on Climate Change Objective: to strengthen the science-based knowledge and policy support on climate change and adaptation in the Mekong River Basin Scope: Reporting on progress on climate change impacts and adaptation Facilitate sharing of knowledge in the Mekong Basin Facilitate capacity development on climate change and adaptation 27 Basin-wide considerations adding to the complexity of climate change planning in the Delta Upstream boundary conditions are changing as a result of other developments, e.g. Changes in hydrology as a result of hydropower and irrigation developments Changes in sediment delivery for Delta formation Geomorphological changes effects on land elevation and consequently areas inundated at risk of sea level rise Changes in nutrient delivery to coastal fisheries Needs an integrated basinwide modelling approach 28

15