NWGA Members: 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) Avista Corporation. Cascade Natural Gas Co.

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1 1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255 West Linn, OR (503) NWGA Members: Avista Corporation Cascade Natural Gas Co. FortisBC Energy Intermountain Gas Co. NW Natural Puget Sound Energy Spectra Energy Transmission TransCanada GTN System Williams NW Pipeline

2

3 Total Available Resource 3,000 Traditional Coalbed Shale 2,500 2,515 Trillion Cubic Feet 2,000 1,500 1,000 1, Shale resource not assessed separately ,119 ~ , , ,057 1,052 1,153 1,104 0

4 Gas Price vs. Gas Supply $25.00 North America Gas Supply Cost Curve $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $ ,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Breakeven Gas Price US$/MMBtu Tcf of Gas Available Source: MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas, Figure 2.10 upgraded for recent Montney and Utica additions.

5 How Much Is 900 Tcf? Cumulative Gas Consumption, Tcf North America Supply and Demand 2016 With LNG Exports* Canada Cumulative Consumption US Cumulative Consumption Supply Available at $5.00 or less Supply Available at $4.00 or less * LNG exports assumes first exports of 6 Bcf/day in 2015, increasing to 20 Bcf/d in 2022, then flat Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration website and Canadian National Energy Board 2011 Forecast

6 Learning Curve Actual 10 AEO 12 AEO 14 AEO 11 AEO 13 AEO 15 AEO Tcf/year Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook

7

8 Historic Gas Spot Prices $16 Natural Gas (Henry Hub Spot) $14 $12 Dollars/Dth $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Source: EIA Monthly Spot Prices through May, 2015

9 NatGas Price Forecast $2013/Dth 2015 AEO HH 2008 AEO HH NPCC AECO NPCC SUMAS $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- Source: EIA 2008/2015 AEO NW Power Council 6 th Power Plan Fuel Price Forecast

10 Recent Gas Demand 1,000 PNW Gas Deliveries (source: US EIA, StatCan) Residential Commercial Industrial Generation Million Dth * * 2015 Outlook Year 1 Forecast

11 Changing Loads 1996 Gen 3% 2014 Res 26% Gen 20% Res 26% Ind 51% Comm 20% Ind 32% Comm 19%

12 2015 Outlook Forecast 300 Residential Commercial Industrial Generation 250 Million Dth / / / / / / / / / /24

13 It s Economic $ $ $ $/MWh $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $- Source: EIA, Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook June 3, 2015,

14 Supports Renewable Energy 8,000 June 1-7, 2015 (Mon-Sun) 7,000 6,000 Megawatts 5,000 Load Wind 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, /01/15 00:00 Source: BPA 06/02/15 00:00 06/03/15 00:00 06/04/15 00:00 06/05/15 00:00 06/06/15 00:00 06/07/15 00:00 06/08/15 00:00

15 Replace Existing Resources

16 Columbia Grid Study Impact on Northwest transmission system: Announced Coal retirement in the NW (Boardman and Centralia) Include sensitivity of additional coal retirement in the Northwest Colstrip 1& 2 Focus on impact to the Northwest transmission system Assumes gas is available where/when needed Conclusion Location of replacement capacity results in shift of NW flow but flows remained within or on the edge of historic operation range, Dispatchable NW Gas replaces: 73% of Boardman/Centralia; 93% of Colstrip 1&2

17 Fundamentals Significant Cold Heating Degrees Prolonged Cold 0 $/Dth Feb 6 Peak Prices $30 Sumas - $27 Stanfield - $24 $25 $20 Kingsgate - $15 $15 Normal HDD Portland HDD $10 Sumas Price $5 Kingsgate Price Stanfield Price $0 Capacity limits on Westcoast coincides with price spikes 2,000 Westcoast Flows - Mcfd 1,500 Mainline Flow 1,000 Mainline Capacity 500 Sumas Flow Sumas Capacity 0 9

18 Accelerated S/D Balance Expected Large Industrial Peak LNG 9 8 Million Dth/day Coal Replacement Pipeline General Industrial Underground Storage

19 Capacity Projects Pipelines Southern Crossing Expansion Palomar Sunstone Blue Bridge (N-MAX) Ruby Pacific Connector Pacific Trail Oregon LNG Washington Expansion LNG Terminals Kitimat LNG Bradwood Landing Oregon LNG Jordan Cove LNG Storage Facilities Mist Jackson Prairie Kitimat LNG Oregon LNG Jordan Cove LNG Bradwood Landing LNG

20 NatGas and Clean Power Act How big an impact might 111(d) have on Northwest natural gas markets? Any good economist will say that depends. [W]hen the final rule is issued, 111(d) will require states to develop individual or joint implementation plans. THAT is where the gas will hit the pilot light and we ll understand real implications NWGA Outlook (Phillip Popoff)

21 Questions? Dan Kirschner Northwest Gas Association (503)

Plugging In To Natural Gas Portland, Oregon January 25

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