Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the

Transcription

1 Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Policies for C C Impacts on the Nile Delta Coastal Zones By Prof. Dr. Ibrahim Abdelmagid Elshinnawy Director of Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) National Water Research Center (NWRC)

2 Presentation Layout Global Perspective Global Models CoRI Activities Impacts on Coastal Zones of the Nile Delta Business as usual module Actual module Adaptation Assessment Adaptation supporting systems Adaptation process and policies Recommendations

3 Global Perspective

4 Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets

5 Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase p p j during the 21st century according to special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)

6 This figure relates temperature changes and sea level rise for 6 different global models

7 Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world 2.0 mm/year 0.8 mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year

8 Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion Rate = 0.4 mm/year ( ) 10 ) ΔM MSL (mm Year

9 Contribution ti to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers : 0.5 mm/year ΔMSL (mm m) Year

10 Sea Level Budget (IPCC-2004, mm/year) Thermal Expansion 1.6 ± ± Mountain Glaciers 0.8 ± ± Greenland Ice Melt 0.2 ± ± Antarctic Ice Melt 0.2 ± ± 0.4 Land Water Storage?? = Total of Observed Contributions Observed Sea Level Change 2.8 ± ± ± ± 0.5

11 1. According to observations and measurements, average global increase in sea level is 1-2 mm/year 2. Mean Sea Level is projected to rise by 0.18 m to 0.59 m by 2100, But with Significant Regional Variations, IPCC 2007)

12 Global Models

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15 Rain Gauge Network

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17 Projected Global Averaged Surface Warming Due To Expected Concentrations ti of Equivalent Carbon Dioxide id Emissions i Till 2100 Scenario B1 A1T CO2-eq Concentrations (ppm) Best Estimate of Temperature ºC B A1B A2 A1F A1 Scenario assumes a very rapid economic growth, global population peaks by mid-century and decline thereafter, rapid new efficient technologies, capacity building, and reduction in regional difference. A1 group is related to technological change in energy system, fossil intensive (A1F1), non-fossil energy (A1T), balance across all energy sources (A1B). A2 Scenario assumes a very heterogeneous world, increasing population, regionally oriented economic development, and slow growth of per capita income and technology change. B1 Scenario assumes world population as in A1with rapid change in economic structure, clean and resource efficient technologies, global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, improved equity, but without climate initiatives. B2 Scenario assumes local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, increasing global population less than A2, less rapid and more diverse technology change, focuses on local and regional levels

18 Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected

19 CoRI Activities

20 Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands ( ) The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt (3500 km) in terms of quality and quantity. The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.

21 Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels 1m zone 2m zone 3m zone

22 WBP 5.8 RGP 0.0 Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) has increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges) Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Shoreline m Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Lake Burullus m Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet (1810 to 2000) Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Light House Grand Hotel Paved Road m Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort (1955 to 1990) Shoreline 1895 Shoreline 1911 Shoreline 1935 Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1983 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1995 Shoreline m Shoreline Evolution at Damietta Promontory (1895 to 2000) Shoreline 1965 Shoreline 1982 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline m Protection Sea Wall Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile Branch (From 1965 to 2000) MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE GIS and Remote Sensing Unit horeline Retreat (meter/year) Sh Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory (1900 to 2000) 1898: : : : : : : :1987 Time Period (Year) West of Rosetta Mouth East of Rosetta Mouth Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta Mouth During The Past Century ALP 49.0 ALP 50.0 ALP 51.0 ALP 52.0 ALP 53.0 ALP 54.0 ALP 55.0 ALP 56.0 ALP 57.0 ALP 58.0 ALP 59.0 ALP 60.0 ALP 61.0 ALP 62.0 ALP :1988 Abu Qir Research Station Zone ALP1 ALP3 ALP9 ALP14 ALP17 ALP19 ALP25 ALP3 P31 ALP33 ALP : : : : AMP 15.0 RHP 0.0 RHP 10.0 RHP 21.0 RHP 20.0 RHP 19.0 RHP 18.0 RHP 17.0 RHP 16.0 RHP 15.0 Rosetta Field Station Zone RHP RHP 28.3 RHP 26.8 RHP 24.8 RHP 23.0 RHP 22.0 RHP 30.1 WBP 2.9 WBP 4.1 WBP 5.7 WBP WBP 6.8 WBP 9.0 WBP 10.6 WBP 15.1 WBP 17.8 WBP 13.2 WBP 21.7 WBP 25.0 WBP 30.0 WBP Institute Administration Building 2 Abu Qir Research Station 3 Rosetta Field Station 4 Burullus Field Station 5 Ras El Bar Research Station WBP 40.0 WBP 45.0 Burullus Field Station Zone WBP 50.0 WBP 58.6 WBP 57.6 WBP 56.8 WBP 62.6 WBP 61.6 WBP WBP BRP 0.6 BRP 0.2 BRP 1.5 BRP 1.0 BRP 2.0 BRP 4.0 BRP 3.0 BRP BRP 7.0 BRP 6.0 BRP 5.0 BRP 8.0 BRP 9.5 BRP 9.0 BRP 11.4 BRP 13.0 BRP 13.4 BRP 14.8 BRP 16.5 BRP 20.0 Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971 Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated) Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW13)(Years Separated) Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982) Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated) Weather Station (Since 2000Separted) Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated) Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971 BRP 24.0 BRP 28.0 BRP 38.0 BRP 43.0 BRP 48.0 BRP 55.0 BRP 56.6 BRP 57.7 GSP 1.0 GSP 9.7 GSP 3.9 Ras El Bar Research Station Zone GSP 13.0 GSP 17.9 GSP 17.0 GSP 16.0 GSP 23.1 GSP 20.3 GSP 19.3 GSP 24.4 GSP 24.1 GSP 28.4 GSP 28.3 GSP 27.0 GSP 26.4 GSP RGP 0.1 RGP 1.5 RGP 6.0 RGP 2.5 RGP 20.0 RGP 22.0 RGP 32.0 RGP 37.0 RGP 40.0 GPP km About الشواطئ 200 hydrographic المختلفة لمعھد بحوث beach البحثية profiles واألنشطة along الحقلية المحطاتthe Nile Delta coast

23 32 o 00' Mediterranean Sea 30' 31 o ROSETTA PROMONTORY BURULLUS Burullus Lagoon Baltim Gamasa DAMIETTA PROMONTORY Abu Quir Bay Port Said NILE DELTA Idku Lagoon 31 o 00' Beach and backshore Old Dunes Cultivated Land nal Suez Can Coastal Dunes Desert Northern Coast Ridge 0 20km توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل 30 o 00' 30 o 30' 31 o 00' 31 o 30' 32 o 00' 32 o 30'

24 Alexandria Cornish Level Cornish Level Protection works Level above MSL (m). El Kashafa Club El Manshia El Asafra El Montaza western border Storm critical level El Silsila Ibrahimeia Sidi Gaber Stanly Sidi Bishr Bir Masoud Distance along shore (Km).

25 SLR and Subsidence Rates at the Nile Delta Region Alexandria Al-Burullus Port Said Tidal Trend (mmly) Subsidence (mm/y) SLR (mm/y) Projected dvalues of fmean Air Temperature Temperature Change for Years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 (ºC) 2000 Scenario B A 1 F

26 Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast. (CoRI-2007), First Scenario Station Average Annual ASLT (Cm) Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2025 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2050 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2075 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2100 Alex Al-Burullus Port Said

27 Two Modules have been developed and in each module three scenarios were established The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last century) will occur till The second scenario was established by temperature projection till Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century. The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.

28 Impacts on Coastal Zones

29 Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007 Scenario Case Constant year 2000 concentrations Temperature Change (Relative to C) Best Estimate 0.6 Sea Level Rise (m) (Relative to ) Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical exchange in the ice flow Not available B1 Scenario A1T Scenario B2 Scenario A1B Scenario A2 Scenario A1F1 Scenario

30 IPCC Considers the Nile Delta as one of the vulnerable areas of the world (Populated Deltas)

31 Scenarios by Projected SLR for the Nile Delta.

32 Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels 1m zone 2m zone 3m zone

33 Results by CoRI & Delft (1992) and IPCC (2006) are comparable Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta as (coastal sand dunes and ridges). Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2006 Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992.

34 Population of Damietta and Port Said Population Damietta Port Said Year

35 Population (Thousands) Increase of Population (Thousands) % of Increase City / / / /2008 Alexandria Damietta Port Said

36 Accordingly, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) has cooperated with EEAA and UNDP to study the impact of sea level rise on the Nile Delta depending on actual data measured by Tide Gauges. Tide gauges data for the last three decades in Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said have been collected and analyzed. Trends for S L R at Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said have been defined. d Average annual accelerated sea level rise value (ASLR) has been estimated at each location. Morphological features of the coastal zones of the Nile Delta were defined by about 200 hydrographic beach profiles taken by CoRI.

37 Preliminary Results Module (1) Business as usual

38 Expected SLR Till 2100 by Projected Increase in Air Temperature (A1F1 Scenario ) Year Temperature (ºC) ASLR at Alexandria 13.0 (cm) 34.0 (cm) 55.0 (cm) 72.0 (cm) ASLR at Al-Burullus (cm) 37.5 (cm) (cm) 79.0 (cm) ASLR at Port Said 27.9 (cm) 68.8 (cm) (cm) (cm)

39 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario

40 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (Without both Mohammed Ali wall and Al-Salam Canal) (With zero levels for lakes borders) Year Total Area Affected (km2) Total % of the Nile Delta Area

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42 Difference between Lake water level and Al-Salam Canal Bank level Section Number Distance from the beginning gof Al- Salam Canal (km zero at the Nile Damietta Branch) (km) Difference in Levels between the canal bank and lake water (m)

43 Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m) Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m) Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m) Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m)

44 Water Level in Al-Burullus ll Lake, September (2004) Mediterranean Sea Al-Boughaz Al-Burullus Lake

45 West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m)n West New Port (+1.5 m) - N Baltim (+2.0 m) E Baltim (+2.0 m) - E New New Road Road to (+ Kafr 2.15 m) S Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W

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47 Final Results Module (2) Considering Mohammed Ali Sea Wall and Lakes Borders odes

48 Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1F1 Scenario

49 Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders) Year Total Area Affected (km2) Total % of the Nile Delta Area

50 Adaptation Assessment

51 Can Egypt adapt itself against future impacts..! Yes Most of eroded sectors in the Nile Delta coast are protected by protection structures implemented by MWRI (CoRI & SPA). Protection works are designed against high waves and surge waves The Nile Delta is protected in many areas by natural sand dunes Alexandria as well as northwestern coasts are located on a limestone ridges (8 ridges with heights from 10m to110 m above mean sea level)

52 Threatened (vulnerable) areas are not projected to high waves or strong currents as water depths in the lakes are about 1.0 m. Except Sahl Al-Tina, coastal zones of Sinai are protected by natural system of sand dunes

53 Adaptation Supporting Systems

54 Adaptive Supporting Systems According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. (Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes). Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority (SPA) (Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus). Natural sand dunes systems Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.

55 Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level. Aerial-photos used in the study do not consider the canal as they were established before its construction. ti Human resources and capacities of research institutions in Egypt Recent activities by FoE IDRC project and UNDP-GEF Recent activities by FoE, IDRC project and UNDP GEF project

56 Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road International coastal road

57 Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works

58 Sand Dunes At the West Side of Rosseta Region

59 Coastal Sand Dunes at North Sinai

60 Rosetta Sea Wall stopped the erosion and protected the backshore land Since its Construction

61 Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands (1.5m - 2.5m Below Sea Level) حائط محمد على

62 Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Abu Quir Bay Low Lands ( m Below Sea Level) Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall

63 Bazalt Riprap to Protect Borg Al-Burullus Village قرية برج البرلس

64 Ras Al-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack Before the Construction ti of Protection ti Works Ras Al Bar

65 Ras Al-Bar Resort Has Gained Lands After the Construction of Protection Works Detached Breakwater

66 Alexandria Cornish Level Cornish Level Protection works Level above MSL (m). El Kashafa Club El Manshia El Asafra El Montaza western border Storm critical level El Silsila Ibrahimeia Sidi Gaber Stanly Sidi Bishr Bir Masoud Distance along shore (Km).

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68 Project Overview Project Components Expected Outcomes Expected Outputs Output 1.1 Coastal development legislation and regulations modified (focusing on ICZM and EIA); 1. Regulatory Framework and Institutional Capacity 2. On the ground measures Enhanced capacity to improve resilience of coastal settlements and development infrastructure is strengthened Innovative and environmentally friendly adaptation measures enforced within the framework of Nile Delta ICZM. Output 1.2 Institutional capacity of NCZMC strengthened; Output 1.3 Information systems established that reflect climate change impacts/research on coastal zones Output 1.4 Budgetary planning of Shore Protection Agency enacted to reflect climate change risks; Output 2.1 Innovative adaptation pilot activities implemented to protect vulnerable coastal lagoons; Output 2.2 Socio economic assessment and adaptation option appraisal undertaken; Output 2.3 Integration of climate risk assessment into the ICZM framework for the Nile Delta 3. Knowledge M&E framework and knowledge management management system in place Output 3.1 M&E system with measureable indicators introduced; Output t32l 3.2 Lessons codified d and disseminated i d through the Adaptation Learning Mechanism (ALM) Output 3.3 Lessons disseminated throughout Egyptian Institutions.

69 Adaptation Process and Policies

70 Sand dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta. Decision makers in coastal governorates as well as concerned ministers should be aware of the importance of sand dunes systems and their role in protecting the coastal zone of the Nile Delta. Consideration should be paid to coastal lakes as one of the most appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise. Coastal protection constructions need regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans. The northwest coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

71 Recommendations An activation of the National Costal Zone Management Committee Formulation of a national ICZM plan. Testing environment friendly technologies for protection of the Mediterranean Coast and LECZ in the Delta to address climate change threats such as SLR; Awareness program among stakeholders of the impacts of climate change on coastal zones is highly recommended. Establishment of observation and monitoring networks and relevant information systems on SLR would support decision making;

72 Building capacities on vulnerability assessment and adaptation implementation is required. Research activities for vulnerability assessment are recommended. Research budget and funds should be increased to cope with the national and international crisis regarding climate change and its impacts and adaptation studies. Building co-operative approach to integrate all efforts

73 We need to trust our research community rather that others predictions The following aspects are recommended to be covered in further studies for the coastal zones: Potential impacts on land and groundwater salinity Potential impacts on patterns of waves and currents

74 Potential impacts on erosion and accretion systems due to currents, waves, and wind actions Potential impacts on lakes ecosystems Potential impacts on water resources and drainage systems Potential impacts on fisheries due to changes expected in current patterns Potential impacts on infrastructures and natural resources of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta Potential impacts of climate changes on evaporation from oceans and seas open waters and their role in reducing SLR Potential impacts of temperature increase on Phytoplankton role in absorbing CO2 and generating O2.

75 Thank You All