Making Decisions in a Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Making Decisions in a Changing Climate Marjorie McGuirk, President CASE Consultants International Scott Shuford, Professional Planner, AICP Glenn Kerr, Executive Director, American Association of State Climatologists Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems and Climate Change (ISCS), July 2016, Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center

2 Sources Marjorie McGuirk, Making Climate Information Available to Decision Maker: Challenges, Risks and Uncertainty,, American Meteorological Society Panel Discussion New Orleans January 2016 Shuford, Scott. "Adapting to Climate Change through Architectural Design." Climate Resilient Design in the Southeast. Asheville, NC: AIA, The Collider, 6 November Kerr, Glenn. "Climate Tools & Services." Climate Resilient Design in the Southeast. Asheville, NC, November 2015.

3 Making Decisions - Outline 1. Decisions Challenges & Approach 2. Focus Areas for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation 3. Resources and Tools for Mitigation and Adaptation

4 Decisions Challenges & Approach

5 Approach Decision Makers Face Many Challenges o Diversity of stakeholder values o Decisions are based on a combination of factors and not a single driver oinformation is often not at the proper scale owho is a trusted source of information? o Uncertainty with data owho is empoweredto make the decisions?

6 Approach Addressing the Challenges Will Require: opredict the range of outcomes resulting from different actions - scenarios o Identify win-win and no regrets solutions ouse data scaledto the level of decision making otie data to community values through decision support tools o Communicate effectively across all sectors interdisciplinarity

7 A little snow, and a lot snow, social response I-285 perimeter north of Atlanta's metro area 2.6 inches of snow January 28, 2014 Source: (NPR) I-57 Groundhog Day February 2, 2011, conditions like this on all the interstates in the Chicago area. (Alex Garcia, Chicago Tribune).

8 Before taking action, start with these steps NEMAC USA Climate Resilience Toolkit

9 9 Heat Waves Heat waves will become more frequent and intense, increasing threats to human health and quality of life, especially in cities. Heavy Downpours More rain is already coming in very heavy events, and this trend is projected to increase across the nation. Such events are harmful to transportation infrastructure, agriculture, water quality, and human health. Agriculture Increasing heat, pests, floods, weeds, and water stress will present increasing challenges for crop and livestock production. Energy Supply Water and Energy Coastal Communities Sea-level rise and storm surge will increase threats to homes and infrastructure including water, sewer, transportation, and communication systems. Many barrier islands and coastal marshes that protect the coastline and support healthy ecosystems will be lost... Warming will decrease demand for heating energy in winter and increase demand for cooling energy in summer. The latter will result in significant increases in electricity use and peak demand in most regions. As warming increases competition for water, the energy sector will be strongly affected as power plants require large amounts of water for cooling. Water Supply Reduced summer runoff, increased winter runoff, and increasing demands will compound current stresses on water supplies and flood management, especially in the West. Source: Karl, Thomas R., Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 189 pp.

10 Approach What does the science say? What does the science mean for the project s future? Why is the science important to a particular project? What are the thresholds for action?

11 Confirmation bias Relevant Research Local expertise 2004 Hurricane Francis flooding Asheville, NC. credit: Scott ShurfordAICP CASEConsultantsInternational.com AMS2016 New Orleans

12 Focus Areas for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Samples Mitigation and Adaptation options

13 Eight Areas of Focus Land use Public safety Transportation Public infrastructure Energy Economic development Natural resource management Social services

14 Management of Natural Resources Adaptation Programs to preserve prime farmland in less drought-prone areas Mitigation Reforestation programs to sequester CO2

15 Public Safety Adaptation Disaster preparedness plans Mitigation Enhanced code enforcement Sources: IBTRACS NOAA - USATODAY for environmental regulations

16 Public Infrastructure Adaptation Increase storage capacity of water supply Gates across floodprone roads Mitigation Regional stormwater management with reuse for irrigation

17 Social Services Adaptation Provide air-conditioned shelters for residents during heat waves Mitigation Provide incentives for housing to build green (e.g., energy-efficient & locationefficient mortgages)

18 Energy Promote the efficient use of energy in buildings, transportation and industry Use less carbon-intensive energy sources Production and use of renewable energy Exploitation of local sources of energy, including methane from landfills

19 Transportation Reducing vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) Mandate higher fuel efficiency through new CAFE standards Increasing multimodal transportation options Fix-it-first infrastructure prioritization Congestion management, including travel demand management and congestion pricing Transit-oriented development

20 Dependencies and Resources Decision Makers Assess Results Project Federal Agencies Engineering Action Plan Citizen Groups

21 Firewise Communities rg 21

22 Community Wildfire Protection Plan Step 1: Convene Decisionmakers Step 2: Involve Federal Agencies (USFS and BLM) Step 3: Engage Interested Parties Step 4: Establish a Community Base Map Step 5: Develop a Community Risk Assessment Step 6: Establish Community Priorities and Recommendations Step 7: Develop an Action Plan and Assessment Strategy Step 9: Finalize Community Wildfire Protection Plan 22

23 Adaptation to hurricanes and other strong storms Identify vulnerable populations & locations o Less mobile persons o Substandard housing and mobile homes o High crime areas o Low-lying areas and areas subject to storm surge Regulatory and public safety adjustments o Provide shelter o Promote awareness o Revise building and setback codes Migration

24 Resources and Tools for Mitigation and Adaptation

25 Decision Support Tools Scenario development/visualizations Capture and organize input and data over time o Communicate across sectors o Identify barriers and opportunities - synergy oprovide a historical record promote accessibility to input and data

26 Federal Action to Build Climate Resilience Core Federal Policy Goals for Climate Change Adaptation o Build resilience to climate change in communities. o Make science more accessible to communities & decision-makers. o Integrate climate risk management into Federal agency planning. o Develop strategies to safeguard natural resources. o Enhance efforts to lead & support international climate adaptation 26

27 FEMA Flood Map Service Center Find your official flood map View, analyze, and print flood hazard maps online using FIRMette Web Download GIS data files for more advanced analysis and application

28 National Stormwater Calculator Climate Assessment Tool Provides estimates for the amount of rainwater and frequency of runoff anywhere in the United States. Informs site developers on how well they can meet a desired stormwater retention target with and without the use of green infrastructure.

29 Precipitation Frequency Data Server Access precipitation frequency estimates for precipitation depth or intensity as tables, graphs, or GIS layers for any location in the contiguous United States.

30 Precipitation Frequency Data Server

31 Storm Water Management Model Urban planners and landscape designers use this downloadable program to simulate the quality and quantity of rainfall over urban and suburban areas. Models the performance of several green infrastructure practices: Permeable pavement Rain gardens Green roofs Street planters Rain barrels Infiltration trenches Vegetative swales m

32 Decisions Made Adapt & Mitigate 32 Buncombe County aerial photo; Shuford photos

33 Thank you! Questions? Making Decisions in a Changing Climate Citation: McGuirk, Marjorie, Scott Shuford, Glenn Kerr, Making Decisions in a Changing Climate, Thirteenth International Seminar on Climate Systems and Climate Change (ISCS), July 2016, Chengdu, China, Beijing Climate Center Contact: MarjorieMcGuirk@gmail.com CASEConsultantsInternational.com