USEA/USAID. Planning Initiative. May 5, Patrick D. Miller

Transcription

1 USEA/USAID SECI Regional Transmission i Planning Initiative Patrick D. Miller May 5, 2010

2 The History of SECI 1998 Southeast Europe Coordination Initiative (SECI) was established 2000 Stability Pact for Southeast t Europe S 2001 Regional Transmission System Planning Project developed under USAID

3 SECI Participants Participating Countries supported by USAID and USEA are: Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia and dkosovo. Neighboring Countries Participating on their own: Turkey, Hungary, Slovenia, Greece and Italy

4 Overall Objectives To promote regional cooperation in transmission planning through the development of common transmission planning tools and methodologies. Provide Software and Training Create a Regional Planning Group Convert National Planning Model data into a Common Regional Format Perform Regional Studies

5 PSS/E Software Power Systems Simulator for Engineers (PSS/E) Software from Power Technologies Inc. (PTI), now owned by Siemens AG. Training for Transmission Planners Included: Introduction to PSS/E Power Flow & Steady State Analysis Introduction to PSS/E Optimal Power Flow Introduction to PSS/E Dynamic Simulation

6 Data Conversion & Regional Model Construction National and Regional models for 2002 and 2005 were constructed and tested. Subsequently, 2010, 2015 and 2020 PSS/E Regional Models were built for Steady State, Dynamic and Short Circuit Analysis. For Winter Peak and Summer Minimum Conditions

7 2002 Regional Electricity Interconnection Study The study revealed that the regional electric transmission system as predicted to exist in the year 2005, fully interconnected to UCTE, with and without Turkey and without any of 12 proposed competing interconnections, was robust and capable of serving projected 2005 demands plus all long term contracted exchanges plus an additional MW bulk power exchange (depending on the Scenario).

8 2004 Reconnection to UCTE October 10, 2004 the second synchronous zone was connected to UCTE For the first time in history, continental Europe and the whole of SEE became a single synchronous electricity grid. 450 million people; 22 countries; 2,300 TWh of consumption

9 2005 Establishment of the Energy Community European Community Albania, Bulgaria, B&H, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Kosovo Coordinate the creation of a legal and economic framework

10 2004 Generation Investment Study (GIS) Study to determine optimum size, location and timing for construction of new production capacities in the region; and to determine needed reinforcement of critical transmission line interconnections in the region if those plants are constructed; over the 15 year period ( ). Modeling and Analysis was conducted by EKC (Serbia) and EIHP (Croatia) under the SECI umbrella.

11 2007 Transmission Investments to Sustain Generation and Market Development in SEE Updated version of the 2004 GIS study to reflect significant changes in natural gas prices; And a significant reduction in imported coal prices; to identify a priority list of investments in interconnections between countries to sustain investments in power generation and support market exchanges.

12 2007 Transmission Network Investment Criteria In anticipation of the Market Opening process Establish Transmission System Planning Criteria and Methodologies for REGIONAL Transmission Project Prioritization Found lack of economic and probabilistic criteria The Study was conducted cted by EKC (Serbia) and EIHP (Croatia) under the SECI umbrella.

13 2009 Uncertainties in the SEE Transmission Network The October 10, 2004 Reconnection of 2 nd Synchronous Zone to UCTE Created Uncertainties for TSO s Market Oriented Reforms Deregulation Restructuring t Privatization

14 FROM VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES Integrated Production, Transmission and Distribution Planning Optimization on a National Level Uncertainties involved Load Growth, Hydrology, Generators and Network Availability TO OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT Regulated Transmission Activities Separated Companies Unpredictable Market Transactions in the Long Term Security Vs. Economic Efficiency National Planning Vs. Regional Planning Uncertainties Involving Power Plant Construction & Dispatch, Electricity Prices, Market Transactions, Regulatory Requests, Environmental Issues, etc.

15 Questionnaire/Study 14 Uncertainty Questions Completed by all 12 TSO s Ending up with 2015 and 2020 Base Case plus 3 major Uncertainty Areas: Power Plant Construction Uncertainties (including Wind) Connection to Italian and/or Turkish Markets Power Balances in each Country Uncertainty 73 Planning Scenarios were investigated using the Regional Models

16 Uncertainties Project Results 8 high voltage system components (Lines, Transformers, etc.) were Identified as Critical under certain scenarios across the region in 2015 and Countries were identified where Power Balance Uncertainties created Critical conditions on lines and transformers. The Uncertainty of Wind (Amount and Location) has the potential to create Critical conditions.

17 Future Plans - Wind Large Scale Wind Integration in SEE EU Targets for Renewables Rapidly evolving wind technologies Huge interest in WPP investment in SEE Limited experience and knowledge in wind integration in SEE

18 Future Plans - Wind EU target of 20% of energy supply from wind and other renewable sources by 2020 Europe imports about 50% of its energy needs These imports are expected to reach 70% in the next 30 years By 2030, OIL IMPORTS expected to rise from 76% to 88% European installed wind capacity is 65 GW; enough to power 35 million households

19 Future Plans Aging Infrastructure Methods to identify the problem (transmission towers, conductors, large transformers, etc.) by country Identification of those country problems that could impact the region Economic & Reliability Analysis for regional benefit

20 2002 Purchase of GTMax 15 copies of GTMax version 4.0 (current version is 5.6) were distributed to 8 SECI participating countries in 2002 An introductory training program was conducted Utilization by TSO s has been limited Survey of SECI participants to find out where it is now, who uses it and how it can be used in the future

21 Generation & Transmission Maximization - GTMax Developed by Argonne National Laboratory GTMax simulates the dispatch of electric generating units & the economic trade of energy using a schematic network representation of the power grid. Maximize the net revenues of power systems by maximizing income and minimizing expenses. Hourly energy transactions Market prices Production costs

22 GTMax is Used By Transmission Companies (TSO s) Generation Companies (Thermal & Hydro) Independent Power Producers Regulatory Bodies Energy Consultants

23 Some objects represent generators, consumers, contracts, & markets Other objects represent the transport of electricity and water Once an object is created, the user inputs information that describes the attributes and limitations of the physical entity it represents Data inputs are applied at various time horizons including annual, weekly, daily, and hourly The user also inputs information about the interconnected system Spot Market (Purchase) Firm Purchase Firm Sale Inter-Tie Hydro-Dam Substation Substation Demand Inter-Tie Hydro- Substation Cascade Spot Pumped Storage Thermal Power Market (Sale) 23

24 Firm Purchase Contract Hydropower Plant Hydro Junction Energy Exchange Out Thermal Unit Demand Center Firm Sales Contract Energy Exchange Point In Interchange Spot Market Interconnection Substation Void Node Hydro Power Release Non- Power Water Release Water To/From Void Node Pumped Water Transmission Line 24

25 Western System No Energy Transfers Eastern System Large Price Difference 27.9 $/MWh - West $/MWh - East Use Expensive Plants 25

26 Western System Eastern System West to East Energy Transport Increase Less Expensive Generation 750 No Price Difference 27.9 $/MWh - West 27.9 $/MWh - East Decrease Expensive Generation 26

27 GTMax is used to: Evaluate investment options in new generation and transmission assets Evaluate firm contracts, energy exchange agreements, and IPP agreements Optimize hydro and thermal generation Develop optimized spot market strategies Analyze the effect of legislation on the electricity market Analyze potential for distributed generation and demand side management

28 Questions