TIMES-Sweden. Anna Krook Riekkola October 2013

Transcription

1 TIMES-Sweden Anna Krook Riekkola October

2 TIMES-Sweden Based on the TIMES modeling platform Original developed, within two different European projects (NEEDS and RES2020), as a part of the Pan European TIMES model (PET model). Original all PET national models shared: RES-structure Technology database General approach for main assumptions: Base-year calibration, demand, potentials, emissions, Updated and further developed to better consider national conditions: Emissions Iron & Steel industry District heating Residential sector Biomass to some extant, but more development is needed 2

3 TIMES Energy system model Energy-economic model Linear programming: Cost minimization Partial equilibrium: Energy part of the economy Technology rich: Both demand and supply side technologies, possible to allocate detailed techno-economic-environmental features. Dynamic: Looking years head, each year is divided into flexible number of time-slices to consider changes in demand/supply between seasons and between day/night/peak. 3

4 E N E R G Y S Y S T E M F i g u r e Secondary Energy Carrier 4-1 i n T o s a t o /38 4

5 TIMES-Sweden Policy Instruments Emissions Electricity IMPORT International Markets P R I M A R Y E N E R G Y S U P P L Y Electricity & Heat Heat Agriculture Commercial Residential Transport Industry EXPORT U S E F U L D E M A N D Primary Energy Secondary Energy Final Energy Useful energy Service Hydro Electricity High voltage Electricity (purchased) Mechanical work Steel 5 Wood waste District heating from CHP District heating (purchased) Space heating Feel comfortable in the room

6 Exogenous input Demand 1 region 7 sectors end-use demand (heating, cooling, vehicle-km, tonne, lighting, nonsubsitutional elc, tonne steel, etc) >30 energy carrier Energy prices Import price oil products etc. Export/import price electricity Resources Renewables resources (pot) Bio imp (con) Elc Exp/imp (con) Emissions CO2, NOX, PM10, PM25, SO2, VOC Policy Taxes Substities EU-ETS Green Cert. Energy Conversion Processes Electricity generation Heat production CHP Biomass processing Biofuels production TIMES-Sweden Transmission / Distribution Electricity grid high voltage Electricity grid med voltage Electricity grid low voltage District heating grid Demand technologies Industry sectors Processes steps Boilers CHP Feed stock Energy efficiency measures Transport sector Cars Buses Trucks Trains etc. Residential & service sectors Boilers Stoves Electric heating District heating Energy efficiency measures Model Output Energy production Technology Region Time Shadow prices Electricity District heat Other energy carriers Energy use Use of energy carriers as a function of: Time Region Demand sub-sector End-use technologies Type of cars Type of heating equipment Implementing of energy efficiency.etc Other Total system costs Emissions TIMES: The Integrated MARKAL- EFOM System TIMES-Sweden, Anna Krook Riekkola, LTU, Sweden. 6

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9 Main assumptions - Technologies Investment Costs Map costs of current technologies Map costs of Best Available Technology (BAT) Estimate future costs by Technology Learning Potentials Limited available land Limited energy sources Scarce materials (for example PV) Capacity Mapping Bubble Graph SETIS 9 9/38

10 Main assumptions - Commodities Energy Flows Eurostat, IEA, National Statistics, National Energy Agencies etc Energy Prices Existing: Statistics Future (non biomass): Market price from Official Projections IEA: Energy Technology Perspectives EU: European Energy and Transport Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables Etc etc Future (biomass): Production costs Various national sources Emissions RAINS (SO2, NOX, VOC, PMA, SO2, NOX, VOC, PMA) IPCC (CO2) SMED (national source) Potentials Statistics and studies Documented within the RES2020 project: 10

11 Example of results: 1 uranium = 0.3 electricity 1 hydro = 1 electricity 11

12 Example of results: Allocation of Biomass between sectors Biomass & Biofuels 500,0 450,0 400,0 350,0 300,0 250,0 200,0 150,0 100,0 50,0 0,0 Baseline CountryCap SectorCapA SectorCapB EU AGR COM RSD ELC IND TRA 12

13 Uncertainty One region model: How much simplification is this for allocation of new plants? Heat sinks Biomass supply What kind of biofuels/biomass can be used for what? Demand for energy use Competing industries of the demand 13

14 My modelling approach: Perfections is not when nothing more can be added, but when nothing more can be taken away. The little Prince in the story by De Saint-Exupery 14