LINKING ENERGY SYSTEM AND INFRASTRUCTURE MODELS TO EXPLORE THE TRANSITION TO A HYDROGEN- FUELLED ECONOMY IN THE UK

Transcription

1 LINKING ENERGY SYSTEM AND INFRASTRUCTURE MODELS TO EXPLORE THE TRANSITION TO A HYDROGEN- FUELLED ECONOMY IN THE UK Nagore Sabio and Paul Dodds UCL Energy Institute, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN, London

2 Industry Hydrogen Energy Systems Transport Households Slide 2

3 Outline Overview Context Approach Energy systems models Infrastructure optimisation models Linking approach Insights Next steps Slide 3

4 Overview Building on the H2FC Supergen White Paper Adding insights for model harmonisation to HYVE project Linking energy systems models with infrastructure optimisation tools to exploit and explore the synergies of different hydrogen markets ESM constitute the core models used in process of developing low carbon transition strategy Infrastructure models have been developed in parallel and constitute a reference for hydrogen systems deployment analysis Slide 4

5 Context UK heat and transportation systems cover more than 2/3 of final energy consumption Most of it industrial and domestic heat Source: Parliament UK, DUKES (2007) Slide 5

6 Context Trends indicate growth in energy consumption Final energy consumption by sector, UK (1970 to 2013) Source: ECUK, Table 1.05 Slide 6

7 Context Transport hydrogen refuelling stations are a target and under construction For stationary systems (micro CHP) experience in markets like South Korea and Japan show 20% price decreases for each doubling in cumulative production. The same infrastructure could be used for providing hydrogen for heating and for transportation. Potential to double market volume Marginal infrastructure cost increase Slide 7

8 Approach Energy systems model UKTM Least cost optimisation Partial equilibrium Open source One full region: UK Note: Under review at the moment. Results shown are illustrative Slide 8

9 Approach Hydrogen processes in UKTM Simplified Reference Energy System Biomass Coal Waste Gasification No- CCS Liq Natural gas Biooil Steam reforming CCS Electricity Electrolysis Gas Slide 9

10 PJ PJ PJ PJ Approach Hydrogen in UKTM Low-GHG scenario 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Final Energy Consumption by Fuel Transport sector fuel consumption Manufactured fuels Other Renewables Oil Products Hydrogen Natural Gas Electricity Coal 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Biomass and biofuels 0 Manufactured fuels Other Renewables Oil Products Hydrogen Natural Gas Electricity Coal Residential heat provision Residential sector fuel consumption 1,400 1,200 1, Other Micro-CHP Heat pumps Hydrogen boiler Gas boiler 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Manufactured fuels Other Renewables Oil Products Hydrogen Natural Gas Electricity Coal Biomass and biofuels Slide 10

11 Approach Infrastructure optimisation model H2-Net Production p=1 Steam methane reforming p=2 Coal gasification p=3 Biomass gasification Transportation l=1 Liquid hydrogen (LH) tanker truck l=2 Liquid hydrogen (LH) railway tank car l=3 Compressed-gasous hydrogen (CH) tube trailer l=4 Compressed-gaseous hydrogen (CH) railway tube car Storage s=1 Liquid hydrogen (LH) storage s=2 Compressed gas (CH) storage Slide 11

12 Approach Infrastructure optimisation model H2-Net 1. Mass balances (defined for every grid) 3. Objective function: (1) Total discounted cost (2) Life cycle environmental impact 2. Capacity constraints (defined for every technology) Production facilities Storage facilities Transportation links Slide 12

13 Approach UK least-cost hydrogen infrastructure H2-Net Production Steam methane reforming Coal gasification Biomass gasification Storage Cryogenic spherical tank (LH) Pressurized cylindrical vessel (CH) Centralised (economies of scale) Steam methane reforming Transportation LH tanker truck LH railway tank car CH tube trailer CH railway tube car Liquid H2 distributed via tanker trucks Slide 13

14 Approach Linkage protocol Iteration 1 Run UKTM Low GHG Scenario Update H2-Net Transport and Residential demand Run H2-Net with new Hydrogen Demands Update UKTM with H2-Net Production/Distribution mix Iteration 2 Run UKTM Low GHG Scenario Update H2-Net Transport and Residential demand Run H2-Net with new Hydrogen Demands Stop when Demand it (i) = Demand it (i-1) Slide 14

15 Insights UKTM H2-Net technology harmonisation needed H2-Net should be updated for representing resource availability constraints H2-Net valuable information to extract and add to UKTM distribution costs Plant capacity expansions Equilibrium convergence might not be reached Slide 15

16 Next steps Harmonise H2-Net technology set to map into UKTM Complete hydrogen pipelines formulation in UKTM Include resource availability constraints Update the linking protocol with another iteration loop including different H2-Net objectives Get further insights on how to differentiate residential and transport energy demand in H2-Net Build the stochastic capability in H2-Net and run with corresponding UKTM stochastic mode Slide 16

17 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Nagore Sabio and Paul Dodds UCL Energy Institute, 14 Upper Woburn Place, WC1H 0NN, London