Decision Support Systems for District Heating Networks and Plants Optimisation 区域供热网络和设备优化决策支持系统. Optit, 2016

Transcription

1 Decision Support Systems for District Heating Networks and Plants Optimisation 区域供热网络和设备优化决策支持系统 Optit, 2016

2 WHO WE ARE 我们是谁 Op#t srl is a spinoff of the Opera/ons Research team of the University of Bologna to develop innova/ve Decision Support Systems Bologna Cesena Op#t srl 是博洛尼亚大学运营研究团队的一个分公司, 致力于开发创新的决策支持系统 Opera.ons research and Mathema.cal Modelling 运营研究和数学模型 IT solu.ons development & deployment IT 解决方案的开发和部署 Business analysis & management consul.ng 业务分析与管理咨询 2

3 OUR OFFER TO THE ENERGY & UTILITIES PLAYERS 我们为能源和公用事业提供的服务 Op/t leverages on state- of- the- art Opera#ons Research to develop solu/ons to support strategic, tac#cal and opera#ons planning processes Optit 利用最先进的运营研究来开发可以支持战略战术和运营规划流程的解决方案 (Human) Resource advanced planning and scheduling 人力资源高级计划和排程优化 Waste collec/on service planning Waste flow management (supply chain op/m.) CHCP energy forecas/ng and produc/on planning Development of District Hea/ng networks RESOURCE MANAGEMENT WASTE ENERGY 废物收集服务计划 ( 废物收集路线优化 ) 废物流管理 ( 供应链优化 ) 区域供热 (DH) 网络的优化发展 CHCP( 联合供热 供冷和供电 ) 设备 : 需求预测和生产计划 3

4 CHALLENGES IN D.H. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 供热区域网络发展的挑战 Urban and Industrial District hea/ng networks require significant investments. 城市和工业区供热网络要求大量的投资 Where should the new pipes be built 应该在哪里建新管道... Which poten/al customers should be acquired first 应首先获得哪些潜在客户... Should current ones be re- contractualised? 当前的这些应该重新订立合同 in order to achieve max Net Present Value? 来实现最大净现值吗? 4

5 OPTIMISING D.H. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 优化供热网络发展 Decisions require dealing with: Large numbers of exis/ng and poten/al new customers and pipings leading to huge number of possible combina/ons Capability to assign cost/revenue values to every single element of the network The network must respect complex thermoidraulic constraints 决策需要处理 : 数量庞大的现有的和潜在的新客户和管道, 以及因此而产生的大量的可能的组合 分配成本 / 收入值到网络中的每一个单独元素的能力 网络必须遵守复杂的热工水力约束 Op#t s solu#on is an innova#ve decision support system, based on GIS technology, to generate and analyse strategic and commercial development scenarios of district hea#ng networks Optit 的解决方案是一个创新的决策支持系统, 基于 GIS 技术, 来生成和分析区域供热网络的战略和商业开发方案 5

6 Configuration of new network SCENARIO SET-UP 新网络的加载 见后面翻译 现有网络的加载 (*) Import of existing network and customers (*) 潜在客户群的加载 Import of prospected customers Editing of imported items 加载元素的编辑 (*) Multiple networks can be managed as separate instances (*) 可以在系统上加载多个网络 6

7 Configuration of analysis parameters SCENARIO SET-UP 分析参数的设定 见后面翻译 Set up of heating plant (max / min pressure & power) Set up of revenues and costs (tariff, cost of pipe, ) 收入和成本 ( 价格, 分枝草拟成本 ) 的配置 选择一个潜在客户的子集 Selection of set of prospective customers 设备的配置 ( 功率和压力的最大和最小阈值 ) Set up of optimization parameter : technical constraint (pressure, falling, ), economic (rate, amortization, allowance, ) and strategic (max investment, max pressure) 优化参数配置 : 技术限制 ( 压力, 下垂,...), 经济限制 ( 利率, 摊销, 利润等 ) 和战略限制 ( 最大投资, 最大效力 ) 7

8 SCENARIO OPTIMIZATION (WHAT-IF ANALYSIS) 见后面翻译 Analysis of a new development area 新区域发展方案 分枝设计图 Drawing of backbone (and connection pipe) 虚拟设备的创建和配置 Creation and configuration of virtual plant 8

9 SCENARIO OPTIMIZATION (WHAT-IF ANALYSIS) 见后面翻译 Optimised scenarios 处理结果 连接解决方案 : 要连接的用户和电源 要铺设的分枝和连接的直径 投资价值 : 成本, 收益, 现金流量, 净现值 Optimal Solution customers to be connected and pressure backbone and service pipes to be extended with diameter; investment value: costs, revenues, cash flows, NPV 9

10 KEY BENEFITS OF OPTIT S SOLUTION OPTIT 的解决方案的主要优点 Support for development / investment decisions (long term) Strategic planning 战略规划 发展 / 投资决策的支持 ( 长期 ) Commercial campaigns: choice of next best customers (medium to short term) Tactical planning 战术规划 商业活动 : 下一个最佳客户的选择 ( 中短期 ) Identification of the best scenarios to maximise Net Present Value Maximum Return on Investment 最大投资回报 确定最佳情景来最大化投资回报 Solutions incorporate both commercial and tactical rationales, leading to more effective deployment Integration of key decision drivers 关键决策因素的整合 解决方案综合商业和战术理由, 简化操作 10

11 CHALLENGES IN ENERGY PRODUCTION PLANNING 在能源生产计划方面的挑战 Energy produc/on of D.H. Networks involve complex plants, using a mix of fuels and renewable energy sources to produce a combina/on of Electricity, Heat & Chill Engines Boilers H e a t pumps Heat tanks Renewable sources Absorbers Chilling units What is the best way to operate CHC Plants to maximise its opera/ng margin (unit commitment)? 区域供热网络的能源生产涉及到复杂的设备, 利用燃料和可再生能源的混合来产生一个电 供热和冷却的组合 发动机 锅炉 热泵 热水箱 可再生资源 吸收器 制冷单元 怎样才能更好地运营 CHC 设备来最大化经营利润率 ( 机组排程? 11

12 OPTIMISING CHCP (UNIT COMMITTMENT) 优化 CHCP ( 机组排程 ) Op/mal decisions require: Heat demand forecas/ng Fine modula/on (hourly or less) Opera/ng single engines in their best efficiency range Taking into account mul/ple cost /revenue factors (especially electricity prices) Mul/ple regulatory, technical and opera/onal constraints 优化决策需要 : 加热 / 冷却 / 电力需求预测 精确调制 ( 每小时或更少 ) 在其最佳效率范围内运行每个发动机 考虑到多个成本 / 收入因素 ( 尤其是电价 ) 多重监管, 技术和操作限制 Op#t s provides a state- of- the- art, customisable, solu#on for CHC plant specifically designed for District Hea#ng op#mised Opera#ons management, Optit 可提供最先进的客制化的解决方案, 用于专为为优化区域供热运营管理设计的 CHC 设备 12

13 OPTIEPM (ENERGY PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT) OPTIEPM ( 能源生产管理优化 ) Web based solution, accessible by browser Multi-plant management Key alert for missing signals or anomalies Multi-user solution 基于 Web 的解决方案, 可通过浏览器访问 多设备管理 丢失信号或异常的主要警报 多用户解决方案 13

14 PLANT CONFIGURATION 设备配置 Each plant (and each machine within plant) can be configured in fine details Up to 3 different heat networks may be configured (e.g. 90, 120, oil) Specific economic (e.g. tax incentives) and regulatory (e.g. PES) constraints can be set up Operations and weather data feeders and load scheduling (system integration) 每个设备 ( 和设备内的各个机器 ) 可以被详细配置 最多可以配置 4 个不同的供热网络 ( 例如,90,120, 油, 蒸汽 ) 可设置特定的经济条件 ( 如财政激励 ) 和法规 ( 如原发性节能指数 ) 限制 工作规则介入来简化操作 14

15 DEMAND FORECASTING 需求预测 A powerful forecasting module based on multi-linear regression model uses historical data to predict heat (and, in case, chill and electricity) demand curves Each plant adopts a self- learning specific model Intra-day profiles are defined through statistical analysis of «same day» data 一种强大的基于多线性回归模型的预测模块利用历史数据来预测热量 ( 并在有些情况下, 预测冷却和电力 ) 的需求曲线 每个设备会采用一种自我学习的特定模式 即日利润是通过 «同一天» 的数据统计分析来确定的 15

16 YEAR-LONG (BUDGETARY) OPTIMIZATION 一年期 ( 预算 ) 优化 Long term planning allows optimal management of long-term constraints (e.g. PES/IRE e E/T), generating budget and what-if scenarios 长期计划可以优化 长期制约 ( 例如原发性节能指数 ) 的管理, 生成预算和假设情景 16

17 NEXT DAY (HOURLY) OPTIMAL DISPATCHING PLAN 次日 ( 每小时 ) 优化调度计划 Next day energy production solutions can be generated with up-to date weather / pricing data to feed (automatically) engines dispatching plans that maximise the plant s operating margin Practical interfaces allow quick monitoring of relevant data 次日能源生产解决方案, 可通过先进的最新的天气 / 定价数据来向 ( 自动的 ) 发动机提供调度计划, 最大限度地提高设备的运营利润率 实用的界面, 可以快速监测相关数据 17

18 SAMPLE SOLUTION FOR ENERGY SERVICE CASE 能源服务案解决方案范例 Cogenera.ng unit 联产机组 Heaters 锅炉 Heat absorber 吸热器 Chilling units 冷却单元 18

19 KEY BENEFITS OF OPTIT S SOLUTION OPTIT 的解决方案的主要优点 What if analysis allows to verify economic impact of different plant s configurations Strategic planning 战略规划 如果分析可以确定出不同设备配置的经济影响会怎么样 Daily optimisations can be integrated to plant management systems Operations planning 运营规划 每日的优化可以结合到设备的管理系统中 Day by day optimisation can lead to significant improvement of Operating Margins Maximum Return on Investment 最大投资回报 一天一天的优化可使经营利润率有显著的改善 Optimal match between heat demand and production leads to fuel use reduction Reduce impacts on environment 减少对环境的影响 热需求和生产之间的最佳匹配可降低油耗 19

20 Translation in Chinese by Studio Comunica Corso Garibaldi, 2/c, Pordenone