Energy sector contribution to climate action - The case of Latin America

Transcription

1 Energy sector contribution to climate action - The case of Latin America Sébastien POSTIC, Sandrine SELOSSE, Nadia MAÏZI MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées MINES ParisTech October 22 nd, 2015 ETSAP Workshop, Sophia-Antipolis

2 Latin America: small yet growing emissions 2/ Millions hab. 8% +57% in 40 years GDP 2012: 5,000 G$ 6% 9% gobal GHG emissions CC cost : 1.5% to 5% of GDP (Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)

3 Latin America: small yet growing emissions 3/ Millions hab. 8% +57% in 40 years GDP 2012: 5,000 G$ 6% 9% gobal GHG emissions CC cost : 1.5% to 5% of GDP (Sources : CIA World Factbook, GIEC, CEPAL)

4 Energy sector is transforming fast 4/16 Final consumption 2012: 460Mtoe 5% of world s consumption 2009 : 30 millions w/o electricity Energy share in regional emisisons: 20% UE: 80% (Sources : AIE, European Commission, CIER, GIEC) Average hydro share: 60% Global average: 14% : +32% TPES X 2 in 40 years

5 Prospective tool: TIMES-ALyC (1) 5/16

6 Porspective tool: TIMES-ALyC (2) 6/16 T-ALyC s primary energy potentials (EJ) - Cumulative potentials Including (right) or not (left) oil/solar/biomass

7 National climate pledges: NAMAs 7/16 82 % oil in primary energy 80 % hydroelectricity 90 % de renewable electricity 77 % renewable electricity in 20 % biofuels in Afforestation minimum 44 MtCO 2 eq -38 % GHG in compared to BAU 0 % net deforestation by % renewables in final energy -20 % GHG in compared to 2007 BAU Non-exhaustive review based on National Communications to the UNFCCC 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy Biofuel support, energy efficiency, waste reduction, wind energy, national parks...

8 National climate pledges: INDCs 8/16 Reductions below BAU Energy: -25%/-45.8% GHG Forestry: reforestation of 1,300,000 ha Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -20% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -20% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG Reductions below BAU Non AFOLU: -30%/-45% CO2 intens. AFOLU: 1.5 MtCO2eq removal Non-exhaustive review based on National INDC submissions to the UNFCCC -43 % GHG in below 2005 levels Forestry: store PGCO 2 /yr Energy: -25%/-40% CO 2 intensity Agric.:-33%/-40% N 2 O,CH 4 intens. Reductions below BAU Unilateral: -15% GHG Conditional: -30% GHG

9 National committments: scenarios 9/16-20 % in compared to 2007 BAU 333 MtCO 2 eq 570 MtCO 2 eq 277 MtCO2eq 469 MtCO2eq 283 MtCO2eq 293 MtCO2eq -38 % GHG in compared to BAU 310 MtCO 2 eq 1,200 MtCO 2 eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 77 % Renewable electricity in 20 % biofuels in Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO 2 eq 82 % oil in primary energy 158 MtCO 2 eq 268 MtCO 2 eq 304 MtCO 2 eq 124 MtCO2eq 235 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 84 MtCO2eq 214 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 80% hydroelectricity 90 % electricity from RNW sources 0 % net deforestation in % Renewables in final energy 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy

10 National committments: scenarios 10/16-20 % in compared to 2007 BAU -38 % GHG in compared to BAU 77 % Renewable electricity in 20 % biofuels in Minimal afforestation 44 MtCO 2 eq 82 % oil in primary energy 80% hydroelectricity 90 % electricity from RNW sources 0 % net deforestation in % Renewables in final energy 15 % renewable electricity 30 % Waste-to-Energy 333 MtCO 2 eq 570 MtCO 2 eq 310 MtCO 2 eq 1,200 MtCO 2 eq 158 MtCO 2 eq 268 MtCO 2 eq 304 MtCO 2 eq 277 MtCO2eq 469 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 124 MtCO2eq 235 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq 283 MtCO2eq 293 MtCO2eq 276 MtCO2eq 1,200 MtCO2eq 84 MtCO2eq 214 MtCO2eq 270 MtCO2eq NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC

11 Emissions (GtCO 2 eq) INDCs vs. NAMAs: overall impacts 11/ BAU NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC NAMAs emissions are 21% below BAU in INDCs emissions range from 24% to 32% below BAU Stringent past- bound in INDCs.

12 Electricity production (TWh/yr) Impact on ELC a virtuous BAU 12/16 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

13 Electricity production (TWh/yr) Impact on ELC a virtuous BAU 13/16 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

14 Variation in electricity production (TWh/yr) Variation in electricity production (TWh/yr) Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization 14/16 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,200 1, Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC -400 BSE BWC ARG CHL COL/CYC AND/BPU/ SUG/VEN

15 Variation in electricity production (TWh/yr) Impacts on ELC: Electrification, decarbonization 15/16 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Waste-to-energy Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal -500 NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC

16 Primary energy production (Mtoe/yr) BAU Primary energy: room for improvement 16/16 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

17 Primary energy production (Mtoe/yr) BAU Primary energy: room for improvement 17/16 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal

18 Variation in primary energy consumption (Mtoe/yr) (N.B.: includes external trade only) Impact on TPES: BSE drives decarbonization 18/ Elc Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal NAMAs Uni_Nat Cond_Nat Cond_TALyC

19 Non-energy reductions 19/16 BAU Cond_TALyC sectorial emissions under two climate scenarios

20 Concluding remarks 20/16 A quite specific climate-energy context Clean electricity => the challenge is not EU s one... Non-energy GHGs => adapt the modeling framework Improvement of INDCs over NAMAs But what s next after? Ambitious strategy is achievable Relevance of energy exports Interest of coupling TIAM and TALyC Climate change adaptation A local, renewable energy mix How to hedge against CC effects? => stoch. TIMES Overcapacity versus regional integration...

21 21/16 Thank you for your attention! Contact: