Review of modelling approaches. - AIM Model -

Transcription

1 The world in 25 Interactive Science Meeting (TWI25) Review of modelling approaches - AIM Model - Mikiko Kainuma, Fellow, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, NIES/ Senior Research Advisor, IGES 11 March 215 IIASA

2 Can Asia Change the World through Leapfrogging? GHG emissions per capita High Carbon Locked in Society Low Carbon Locked in Society Leapfrog Development Backcasting High Carbon Locked in type Development Development of Asia LCS Scenarios (1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting Low Carbon Society Time Climate catastrophe: Significant Damage to Economy and Eco System Policy Packages for Asia LCS Funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES 2

3 Challenges toward low-carbon societies in Asia Present Situation Research Topics Problems in Asia Economic Development, Energy, Poverty, Environment, etc. Examples of issues to be tackled: Economic Leap-frogging development to LCS Energy: competition of biomass energy and food production Material: Social infrastructure and low materialization Lifestyle: Tradition, Diversity in Asia Institution: Barriers and policy plans to remove barriers Transportation: Low carbon transportation Low Carbon Asia International challenges Making roadmaps toward LCS by backcasting Future Realization of Low Carbon Society with high quality of live Energy Production, Energy Service Supply Human Capital Elements considered in scenarios and/or roadmaps Social Capital, Tradition, rule Development of qualitative scenarios Development of actions and roadmaps Capacity building Analysis of Asian perspectives Social 社会インフラ Infrastructure Domestic Institutions Country International Other Environmental Problems Trades International Policy

4 Outputs Environmental indicators, economic development,... Bottom-up models Top-down models AIM/Energy AIM/Agriculture AIM/CGE AIM/Material AIM/Air AIM/Water AIM/Trend Issues Land use Access to safe water Crop productivity Risk of hunger Municipal solid waste Diarrhea incidence Water demand Air pollutant emission Water availability Urban air quality Risk of water shortage Energy system Environment water, air, land,... Environmental damage Maintenance Issues Environmental service Feedback from ecosystem to socio-economy Economy Production Consumption Investment Market Price SDB Innovation options (Strategic Data Base) Drivers GDP, population, technologies,... Models of the AIM family

5 How to deploy our study to real world Policy makers Central/regional government administration Development Agencies NGOs India Collaboration for LCS scenario development and building roadmaps Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world Bangladesh Thailand 213/ Cambodia 5 Each country s domestic/ local research institute Application and development to actual LCS processes Vietnam China Core research members Development and maintenance of study tools/models Korea 213/3 Japan Malaysia Indonesia

6 Layers of changes needed in structures, institutions, processes and mechanisms for a low carbon society

7 Output examples 6 GHGs emissions pathways in Asia and comparison with 2 target pathways Emissions constraints of achieving 2 3 were calculated based on UNEP Gap Report Future global economy wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO 2 ) Scenario name Reference 5 US$/tCO US$/tCO US$/tCO US$/tCO GHG emissions in Asia(Gt CO2eq) GHG reductions ratio in Asia (% from reference) 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% % 45% reductions from the 25 levels Reference 5US$/tCO2 1US$/tCO2 2US$/tCO2 4US$/tCO2 Reference T5 T1 T2 T scenario 2.5 scenario 3 scenario Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (214) 7

8 Output examples SLCP & Air pollutants emissions in Asia Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies SO2 emissions in Asia(Mt SO2) NOx emissions in Asia(Mt NOx) There are large reduction potentials of air pollutants and SLCPs, due to GHG mitigation actions such as drastic fuel sifts and energy efficiency improvement. (e.g. 6~9% reductions compared to baseline in 25 BC emissions in Asia(Mt BC) 25 Reference T5 T1 T2 4 T PM emissions in Asia(Mt PM) Reference 5US$/tCO2 1US$/tCO2 2US$/tCO2 4US$/tCO2 3 scenario 2.5 scenario Reference T5 T1 T2 T Source) modified from Hanaoka et al, Environmental Pollution (214) 2 scenario 8

9 Output examples 21st century risk of hunger strongly differs among different socioeconomic conditions Regional distribution depends greatly on population growth, equality in food distribution and increase in food consumption Regions with greater population growth face higher risk of hunger. Population at risk of hunger [million] Land use change Hasegawa et al., 215 SSP1 SSP5 Risk of hunger in the 21 st century Population at hunger risk SSP2 SSP3 SSP Land use [Mha] SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP Food crops Pasture Grassland Managed forest Primary forest The most pessimistic scenario (SSP3) Rest of South America Southeast Asia Middle East Carolie intake [kcal /person/day] China Brazil North Africa Rest of Asia, 16% 5 India, 23% Rest of Africa, 39% Former Soviet Union (Relative to 25) Food consumption per capita

10 Thank you for your attention!