Assessing the impact of climate change on the hydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece

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1 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AdaptToClimate Assessing the impact of climate change on the hydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece Ch. Doulgeris 1, D. Papadimos 1 and J. Kapsomenakis 2 1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre 2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens March 2014 Filoxenia Conference Centre Nicosia, Cyprus

2 Description of the study area Lake Cheimaditida Lake Kerkini

3 Description of the study area - Lake Cheimaditida Lake s surface : 10 km 2 Max water level: 592 m a.m.s.l

4 Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini Lake Cheimaditida Lake Kerkini

5 Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini L. Kerkini Strymonas River Lake s surface : 73.2 km 2 Max water level: 35.8 m a.m.s.l

6 Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini

7 Description of the study area - Lake Kerkini ha arable land ha are irrigated are irrigated from Lake Kerkini & Strymonas River

8 The concept Historical climatic data Simulation of the lake s water balance Future climatic data Estimation of the lake s Water volume hypsographic curves Past & Present Lake s Surface - Water Level Future

9 Methods and Tools S i+1 = S i + Qin + P E I Qus - Qout - Time step : monthly - The terms are expressed in m 3 S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1 Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i P : precipitation on the lake s surface in time step i E : evaporation from the lake s surface in time step i I : Infiltration from the lake s bottom in time step i Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

10 Methods and Tools S i+1 = S i + Qin + P E I Qus - Qout - Time step : monthly - The terms are expressed in m 3 S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1 Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i P : precipitation on the lake s surface in time step i E : evaporation from the lake s surface in time step i I : Infiltration from the lake s bottom in time step i Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

11 Methods and Tools MIKE BASIN (NAM) was applied in both catchments For the simulation of rainfall runoff in the lakes catchments MIKE BASIN is a GIS tool suitable for water resources management and planning NAM a module of MIKE BASIN is a deterministic, lumped hydrological model which represents various components of rainfall-runoff process NAM hydrological models of the lakes catchments were calibrated on observed time series of the lakes water level

12 Methods and Tools S i+1 = S i + Qin + P E I Qus - Qout - Time step : monthly - The terms are expressed in m 3 S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1 Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i P : precipitation on the lake s surface in time step i E : evaporation from the lake s surface in time step i I : Infiltration from the lake s bottom in time step i Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

13 Available Data Historical climatic data Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation Cheimaditida s catchment January December 1998 Kerkini s catchment January December 2006

14 Available Data Future climatic data Monthly values of Temperature & Precipitation Emissions Scenarios A1B : A1B and A2 : Were produced from the historical ones, which multiplied by their expected rates of change in the future due to climate change

15 Expected rates of change of Rainfall and Temperature Emissions Scenarios A1B A1B A Season Rainfall Rate of Change (%) Temperature Rate of change (%) Spring Summer 9.73 Autumn Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winder Spring Summer Autumn Winder Climate Change Impacts Study Committee, 2011

16 Methods and Tools S i+1 = S i + Qin + P E I Qus - Qout - Time step : monthly - The terms are expressed in m 3 S : volume of water stored in the lake in time step i and i+1 Qin : catchment runoff into the lake at time step i P : precipitation on the lake s surface in time step i E : evaporation from the lake s surface in time step i I : Infiltration from the lake s bottom in time step i Qus : water outflow from the lake to the users in time step i Qout : water outflows downstream the lake in time step i

17 Available Data The method of Thornthwaite was used for Infiltration from the lakes bottom was considered: Potential Evapotranspiration & Evaporation Cheimaditida 5.1 mm/year The irrigation demands per ha have been estimated Cheimaditida Kerkini m 3 /year m 3 /year

18 Results and Discussion Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Cheimaditida Water level a.m.s.l. (m) WLm = WLm = (-40 cm) Α1Β / Α1Β / Α2 / WLm = (-75 cm) WLm = (-85 cm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

19 10 Results and Discussion Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Cheimaditida Surface area (km 2 ) SAm = 8.96 km 2 SAm = 7.14 km 2 (-20%) Α1Β / Α1Β / Α2 / SAm = 5.92 km 2 (-34%) SAm = 5.61 km 2 (-37%) 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

20 Results and Discussion Mean monthly catchment runoff x 10 6 (CR) into Lake Cheimaditida 1.2 Discharge (m 3 /s) Α1Β / Α1Β / CRm = m Α2 / CRm = 9.62 m 3 (-26%) CRm = 6.29 m 3 (-52%) CRm = 6.03 m 3 (-54%) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

21 Results and Discussion Mean monthly water level (WL) in Lake Kerkini 36 Water level a.m.s.l. (m) WLm = Α1Β / Α1Β / Α2 / WLm = 32.3 (-30 cm) WLm = 31.9 (-70 cm) WLm = 31.8 (-80 cm) 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

22 Results and Discussion Mean monthly surface area (SA) of Lake Kerkini Surface area (km 2 ) SAm = km 2 SAm = km 2 (-5%) Α1Β / Α1Β / Α2 / SAm = 48.9 km 2 (-12%) SAm = 47.7 km 2 (-14%) 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

23 Results and Discussion Mean monthly catchment runoff x 10 6 (CR) into Lake Kerkini 120 Discharge (m 3 /s) Α1Β / Α1Β / Α2 / CRm = 1563 m 3 60 CRm = 1172 m 3 (-25%) CRm = 817 m 3 (-48%) CRm = 812 m 3 (-48%) 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Noe Dec Months

24 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AdaptToClimate Assessing the impact of climate change on the hydroperiod of two Natura 2000 sites in Northern Greece Ch. Doulgeris 1, D. Papadimos 1 and J. Kapsomenakis 2 1 The Goulandris Natural History Museum, Greek Biotope/Wetland Centre 2 Research Center of Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens March 2014 Filoxenia Conference Centre Nicosia, Cyprus