A National Statistics Publication ENERGY TRENDS

Transcription

1 A National Statistics Publication ENERGY TRENDS MARCH 2011

2 Contact points To subscribe to Energy Trends and Quarterly Energy Prices For new subscription queries please telephone: Amey on or write to: Amey, Paramount House, Pascal Close, Paramount Business Park, St Mellons, Cardiff CF3 0LW A subscription form is also available on the Internet at: Energy Trends is prepared by the Energy Statistics Team in DECC. More information on DECC energy publications is available at: Further information on Oil and Gas is available at: For enquiries please contact: Name Telephone Publication and other general Clive Sarjantson 5056 Clive.Sarjantson@decc.gsi.gov.uk (Helpdesk) enquiries on energy statistics Total energy statistics Anwar Annut 5060 Anwar.Annut@decc.gsi.gov.uk Coal and other solid fuels Mita Kerai 5044 Mita.Kerai@decc.gsi.gov.uk Natural gas consumption Gas and petroleum investment Mike Earp 5784 Mike.Earp@decc.gsi.gov.uk Indicative tariffs Natural gas production Clive Evans 5040 Clive.Evans@decc.gsi.gov.uk Petroleum production Petroleum consumption and Alison Colquhoun 5038 Alison.Colquhoun@decc.gsi.gov.uk stocks Electricity statistics Chris Michaels 5050 Chris.Michaels@decc.gsi.gov.uk Regional and local authority energy statistics Will Rose 6909 Will.Rose@decc.gsi.gov.uk All the above can be contacted by fax on This is a National Statistics publication The United Kingdom Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the UK Statistics Authority: Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics: meet identified user needs are well explained and readily accessible are produced according to sound methods, and are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed. Explanatory notes are to be found inside the back cover

3 Contents Introduction 2 Section 1 - Total Energy 5 Section 2 - Solid Fuels and Derived Gases 8 Section 3 - Oil and Oil Products 10 Section 4 - Gas 14 Section 5 - Electricity 16 Section 6 - Special Features Diversity of supply for oil and oil products in OECD countries 18 Improvements to Energy Trends oil and gas tables 25 Carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in the UK 27 Renewable Electricity 2010 provisional data 28 Renewable energy supply around the world, Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level 36 Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland 41 during 2009 Change over Time Analysis Viewer: Sub-national energy consumption 50 European Energy Efficiency trends Household energy consumption 57 Sub-regional fuel poverty data for England, Estimates of domestic dual fuel energy bills in UKCS capital expenditure survey Tables 1.1: Indigenous production of primary fuels : Inland energy consumption: primary fuel input basis : Supply and use of fuels : Supply and consumption of coal : Supply and consumption of coke oven coke, coke breeze and other 78 manufactured solid fuels 2.3: Supply and consumption of coke oven gas, blast furnace gas, 79 benzole and tars 3.1: Supply and use of crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks : Supply and use of petroleum products : Supply and use of petroleum products - annual data : Supply and use of petroleum products - latest quarter : Demand for key petroleum products : Stocks of petroleum at end of period : Drilling activity on the UK Continental Shelf : Natural gas supply and consumption : Fuel used in electricity generation and electricity supplied : Supply and consumption of electricity 89 List of special feature articles published in Energy Trends between March and December The cover illustration used for Energy Trends and other DECC energy statistics publications is from a photograph by David Askew. It was a winning entry in the DTI News Photographic Competition in March 2011

4 Introduction Energy Trends and Quarterly Energy Prices are produced by the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) on a quarterly basis. Both periodicals are published concurrently in June, September, December and March. The March editions cover the fourth quarter of the previous year and also the previous year as a whole. Energy Trends includes information on energy as a whole and by individual fuels. The text and charts provide an analysis of the data in the tables. The tables are mainly in commodity balance format, as used in the annual Digest of UK Energy Statistics. The 2010 edition of the Digest was published on 29 July Printed and bound copies of the 2010 Digest can be obtained from The Stationery Office and an electronic version is available on the DECC website at: The balance format shows the flow of a commodity from its sources of supply, through to its final use. The articles provide in-depth information on current issues within the energy sector. The text and tables included in this publication represent a snapshot of the information available at the time of publication. However, the data collection systems operated by DECC, which produce this information, are in constant operation. New data are continually received and revisions to historic data made. To ensure that those who use the statistics have access to the most up-todate information, revised data will be made available as soon as possible, via the electronic versions of these tables. The electronic versions are available free of charge from the DECC website. In addition to quarterly tables, the main monthly tables that were published in the period up to May 2001 when Energy Trends was produced monthly, continue to be updated and are also available on the DECC website. Both sets of tables can be accessed at: Annual data for 2010 included within this edition is on a provisional basis. New data are continually received and revisions to previous data made. Finalised figures for 2010 will be published on the 28 July 2011 in the annual Digest of UK Energy Statistics. Energy Trends does not contain information on Foreign Trade, Temperatures, Wind Speeds and Prices. Foreign Trade, Temperatures and Wind Speeds tables are, however, available on the DECC website at: Information on Prices can be found in the Quarterly Energy Prices publication and on the DECC website at: If you have any comments on Energy Trends or Quarterly Energy Prices publications please send them to: Kevin Harris DECC Energy Statistics Team 6 th Floor Area B 3 Whitehall Place London SW1A 2AW Kevin.Harris@decc.gsi.gov.uk Tel: March

5 The main points for 2010: Total energy production was 6 per cent lower than in Oil production was 7½ per cent lower than in Natural gas production was 4½ per cent lower than in Net imports of gas increased by 29½ per cent. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) accounted for 35 per cent of gas imports. Coal production was 1½ per cent higher than in Coal imports were 30½ per cent lower. Generators demand for coal was higher by 5 per cent. Coal stocks were 30 per cent lower. Total primary energy consumption for energy uses rose by 3 per cent from When adjusted to take account of weather differences between 2009 and 2010, primary consumption fell by ½ per cent. Final energy consumption was 4 per cent higher than in 2009, the first rise since This was largely due to an 11 per cent rise in domestic consumption reflecting the colder weather in There were rises in all other sectors except transport which had a small fall of ½ per cent. Gas demand was 8½ per cent higher than in 2009, whilst electricity consumption was 1 per cent higher in 2010 than in Of electricity supplied in 2010, gas accounted for 47½ per cent. Nuclear s supply decreased by 10 per cent on 2009, to 15½ per cent of the total. Coal accounted for 28½ per cent. Net imports of electricity fell by 0.2 TWh to 2.7 TWh. Wind, hydro and other renewables supplied about the same amount of electricity as in Wind, hydro and other renewables accounted for 7 per cent of total generation. Provisional estimates show that carbon dioxide emissions rose between 2009 and 2010; factors driving the change include reduced temperatures in 2010 leading to increased heating demand, and a switch in electricity generation from nuclear to coal. 3 March 2011

6 The main points for the fourth quarter of 2010: Total energy production was 5½ per cent lower than in the fourth quarter of Oil production was 8½ per cent lower than in the same period of Natural gas production was 9 per cent lower than the same period of Net imports of gas increased by 17½ per cent. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) accounted for 34½ per cent of gas imports. Coal production was 11½ per cent higher than in the same period of Coal imports were 2½ per cent lower. Generators demand for coal was 33 per cent higher, due to increased coal electricity generation linked to the exceptionally cold weather in December Total primary energy consumption for energy uses rose by 7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the same period of When adjusted to take account of weather differences between 2009 and 2010, primary energy consumption fell by ½ per cent. Final energy consumption rose by 9 per cent over quarter four of 2009, with rises in all sectors, a significant factor being the exceptionally cold weather in November and December Domestic energy consumption overall was up by 22½ per cent, with domestic gas consumption up by 30 per cent. Gas demand was 6½ per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009, whilst electricity consumption was 4 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of Of electricity supplied in the fourth quarter of 2010, gas accounted for 41 per cent. Nuclear s supply increased by 4½ per cent on the fourth quarter of 2009, to 16 per cent of the total. Coal accounted for 34½ per cent. Net imports of electricity fell by 2½ TWh to 0.2 TWh. Wind, hydro and other renewables supplied 4½ per cent more electricity than a year earlier, with wind alone up 24½ per cent. Wind, hydro and other renewables accounted for 7½ per cent of total generation. March

7 Section 1 - Total Energy Total Energy Chart 1.1 Production of indigenous primary fuels Million tonnes of oil equivalent Total 2010 Total Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Primary Electricity(1) (1) Nuclear and wind & natural flow hydro electricity. Total production in 2010 was million tonnes of oil equivalent, 5.8 per cent lower than in In the fourth quarter of 2010 production was 5.7 per cent lower than in the fourth quarter of In 2010 production of coal and other solid fuels was 1.3 per cent higher than in In the fourth quarter of 2010 it was 9.0 per cent higher than a year earlier. Production of petroleum was 7.7 per cent lower in 2010 than a year earlier. In the fourth quarter of 2010 it was 8.3 per cent lower than in the fourth quarter of Production of natural gas fell by 4.2 per cent between 2009 and Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010 it fell by 8.5 per cent. Primary electricity output in 2010 was 9.7 per cent lower than in 2009 within which nuclear electricity output fell by 10.1 per cent and output from wind and natural flow hydro fell by 5.6 per cent. In the fourth quarter of 2010 primary electricity output was 5.2 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2009 within which nuclear electricity output rose by 4.7 per cent and output from wind and natural flow hydro rose by 10.1 per cent. Chart 1.2 Total inland consumption (primary fuel input basis) 1 Million tonnes of oil equivalent Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 Seasonally adjusted and temperature corrected annual rates. Total inland consumption on a primary fuel input basis (temperature corrected, seasonally adjusted annualised rate), was million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2010 a fall of 0.6 per cent from The average temperature in 2010 was 1.1 degrees Celsius colder than in Total inland consumption on a primary fuel input basis (temperature corrected, seasonally adjusted annualised rate), was million tonnes of oil equivalent in the fourth quarter of 2010 a fall of 0.4 per cent compared to the fourth quarter of The average temperature in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 2.5 degrees Celsius colder than the same period a year earlier. Between 2009 and 2010 (on a seasonally adjusted and temperature corrected basis) coal and other solid fuel consumption rose by 2.1 per cent. Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010 consumption rose by 15.9 per cent. Also on a seasonally adjusted and temperature corrected basis, oil consumption fell by 3.5 per cent between 2009 and 2010 and by 4.0 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of On the same basis, gas consumption rose by 2.4 per cent between 2009 and 2010 but fell by 4.9 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of March 2011

8 Total Energy Chart 1.3 Final energy consumption by user In 2010 total final energy consumption was 3.9 per cent higher than in Total final energy consumption rose by 9.1 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010, due to the exceptionally cold weather in December Million tonnes of oil equivalent Domestic Services Industry Domestic sector energy consumption rose by 22.5 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010; annually it rose by 10.8 per cent. Service sector energy consumption rose by 5.5 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010; annually it rose by 2.8 per cent Transport Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Industrial sector energy consumption rose by 3.5 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010; annually it rose by 4.2 per cent. Transport sector energy consumption rose by 1.9 per cent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010; annually it fell by 0.6 per cent. Background Relevant tables 1.1: Indigenous production of primary fuels.page : Inland energy consumption: primary fuel input basis. Page : Supply and use of fuels. Page Production Indigenous production of energy was 5.8 per cent lower in 2010 than in 2009, continuing a year on year decline for each year since Coal and other solid fuels production rose by 1.3 per cent while petroleum production fell by 7.7 per cent, gas production fell by 4.2 per cent and primary electricity output fell by 9.7 per cent. Petroleum accounted for 43.6 per cent of total indigenous production in the fourth quarter of 2010 while natural gas accounted for 36.3 per cent, coal and other solid fuels 9.5 per cent and primary electricity output 10.6 per cent. A year earlier the proportions were petroleum 44.9 per cent, natural gas 37.4 per cent, coal and other solid fuels 8.2 per cent and primary electricity output 9.5 per cent. Total inland consumption In 2010 consumption of primary fuels (not temperature corrected or seasonally adjusted), was higher than in the preceding year by 2.9 per cent. The largest contributions to this rise, the first since 2004, in absolute terms were natural gas (which increased by 8.3 per cent) and from coal (which increased by 4.5 per cent). On a temperature corrected basis, consumption in 2010 was 0.6 per cent lower than in Total inland energy consumption, on a primary fuel input basis (not temperature corrected or seasonally adjusted), in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 61.2 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 7.2 per cent higher than in the corresponding period a year ago. March

9 Total Energy Consumption by final users Final energy consumption shows a strong seasonal pattern with more energy being consumed in the winter months and less in the summer, particularly in the domestic and service sectors. In 2010 final energy consumption was 3.9 per cent higher than in 2009, the first rise since In 2010 the transport sector had the largest share of total final energy consumption at 35 per cent. The domestic sector accounted for 30 per cent, the industrial sector for 18 per cent, and the service industries, including agriculture, accounted for 11 per cent. Non-energy use contributed the remaining 6 per cent. In the fourth quarter of 2010 final energy consumption was 9.1 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of In the fourth quarter of 2010 the domestic sector had the largest share of total final energy consumption at 36 per cent. The transport sector accounted for 30 per cent, the industrial sector for 18 per cent, and the service industries, including agriculture, accounted for 11 per cent. Non-energy use contributed the remaining 5 per cent. Dependency In 2010 dependency on net imports was 28.3 per cent, up 1.6 percentage points from Dependency on fossil fuels in 2010 was 90.0 per cent, up 0.8 percentage points from This rise was due to outages to the nuclear fleet in 2010 and lower output from hydro-electricity plants. In the fourth quarter of 2010 net import dependency was 31.1 per cent, up 2.9 percentage points from the fourth quarter of This rise was due to UK production falling whilst demand increased. Dependency on fossil fuels in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 90.5 per cent, up 0.1 percentage point from the fourth quarter of March 2011

10 Solid Fuels and Derived Gases Section 2 - Solid Fuels and Derived Gases Chart 2.1 Coal production and imports 14 Provisional figures for 2010 as a whole show that coal production (including an estimate for slurry) was 1.6 per cent up on 2009 at 18.2 million tonnes. Deep mined production was down 1.7 per cent while surface mine production was up 4.7 per cent. Million Tonnes Deep Mined Surface Mining Imports Provisional figures for the fourth quarter of 2010 show that coal production (including an estimate for slurry) was 11.6 per cent higher than the fourth quarter of 2009 at 4.8 million tonnes, with deep mined production up 34.4 per cent and surface mine production down 3.1 per cent. Imports of coal in 2010 as a whole were 30.5 per cent down on 2009 at 26.5 million tonnes. 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Imports of coal in the fourth quarter of 2010 were 2.6 per cent lower than in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 7.7 million tonnes. In million tonnes of the coal imported (75.9 per cent) was steam coal, largely for the power stations market. Chart 2.2 Coal consumption Million Tonnes Electricity Generators Generators Trend (=4 average of quarters ending) Colleries, coke ovens and other conversion industries Final Consumers Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Total demand for coal in 2010 as a whole, at 51.3 million tonnes, was 5.2 per cent higher than in 2009, with consumption by electricity generators up by 5.0 per cent. Total demand for coal in the fourth quarter of 2010, at 16.2 million tonnes, was 26.7 per cent up on demand in the fourth quarter of 2009; consumption by electricity generators was up by 32.9 per cent over the same period. This is the largest percentage increase recorded for electricity generators consumption since the first quarter of Electricity generators accounted for around 81.2 per cent of total coal use in 2010, broadly similar to that recorded for In the fourth quarter of 2010, electricity generators accounted for 85.1 per cent of coal use, 4.0 percentage points higher than the fourth quarter of Provisionally, final consumption decreased by 0.8 per cent (less than 0.1 million tonnes) in 2010 compared with a year earlier. March

11 Chart 2.3 Coal stocks Million Tonnes Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Background Undistributed Other Distributed Power Stations Solid Fuels and Derived Gases Coal stocks showed a seasonal fall of 3.9 million tonnes during the fourth quarter of 2010 and at the end of December 2010 stood at 16.9 million tonnes, 7.2 million tonnes lower than at the end of December The level of coal stocks at power stations at the end of the fourth quarter of 2010 was 13.4 million tonnes. This was 8.4 million tonnes lower than the corresponding level a year earlier, and is now similar to levels seen over periods prior to Stocks held by producers (undistributed stocks) also decreased during the fourth quarter of 2010 to stand at 1.5 million tonnes, less than 0.1 million tonnes higher than at the end of December Relevant tables 2.1: Supply and consumption of coal...page : Supply and consumption of coke oven coke, coke breeze and other manufactured solid fuels...page : Supply and consumption of coke oven gas, blast furnace gas, benzole and tars.page 79 Coal production and imports In 2005, for the first time ever surface mine production exceeded deep mined production. Deep mined production recovered towards the end of However, it fell back in the second half of 2006 with the closure of Rossington and the mothballing of Harworth. These closures, geological difficulties and other one-off factors continued to suppress deep mined production and in 2009 production was at its lowest (7.5 million tonnes) since records began. The mothballing of Welbeck colliery and face gaps in production during the first quarter of 2010 meant deep mined production was at its lowest (1.1 million tonnes) in this quarterly series. It has since picked up and production currently stands at 2.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of This was to make up for the shortfall in production levels during the first half of Surface mine production has been on an upward trend since the third quarter of 2006 where it stood at 1.9 million tonnes, it currently stands at 2.4 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of Imports of coal in 2010 fell to 26.5 million tonnes, 24.0 million tonnes below the record high in Coal consumption Overall, coal use by electricity generators has been generally declining since the first quarter of 2006, when demand peaked at 19.0 million tonnes. This decline is partly due to higher coal prices making gas more competitive for generation. Generators use of coal was at its lowest level since records began in the third quarter of 2009 (6.4 million tonnes) but has more than doubled since then to 13.7 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of This was partly due to the exceptionally cold weather conditions during December Stocks Generally, coal stocks levels show a seasonal trend over an annual period. Stocks are at their lowest at the end of the first quarter of the year to help meet the demand by generators during the winter period. The demand for coal for generation tends to be lower over the summer, therefore, stocks levels tend to be the highest for the year at the end of the third quarter. In particular, total stocks were at their highest (24.7 million tonnes) at the end of the third quarter of These levels were last seen at the end of Since then stocks have slowly started to decline but fell quite sharply between the end of the fourth quarter in 2009 (24.1 million tonnes) to 20.4 million tonnes at the end of the first quarter in 2010 to help meet demand during January 2010 where weather conditions were exceptionally cold. Due to more exceptionally cold weather, as one factor in December leading to higher coal generation, 2010 coal stocks fell sharply again between the end of the third and fourth quarters in 2010 and now stand at 16.9 million tonnes. 9 March 2011

12 Oil and Oil Products Section 3 - Oil and Oil Products Chart 3.1 Production of crude oil and NGLs 8 Total oil production (million tonnes) Total indigenous UK production of crude oil and NGLs in 2010 was 7.7 per cent lower than in 2009 at 63.0 million tonnes. Total indigenous UK production in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 8.3 per cent lower than a year earlier Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chart 3.2 UK trade in crude oils, NGLs and petroleum products Million Tonnes Exports Imports Net Exports Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q The UK remained a net importer of oil and oil products by 10.2 million tonnes in Imports of crude oil, NGLs and feedstocks increased by 0.5 per cent in 2010 while exports fell by 6.6 per cent. The UK was a net importer of crude oil, NGLs and feedstocks in the fourth quarter of 2010 by 3.0 million tonnes. Exports of crude oil, NGLs and feedstocks decreased by 7.4 per cent. Imports were 2.8 per cent higher. The UK was still a net exporter of petroleum products in 2010 by 2.1 million tonnes. Imports rose by 6.0 per cent and exports rose by 0.8 per cent. During the fourth quarter of 2010 the UK was a net exporter of petroleum products by 1.0 million tonnes. March

13 Oil and Oil Products Chart 3.3 Demand for key transport fuels In 2010 deliveries of Diesel engine road vehicle fuel (DERV) increased by 4.1 per cent, whilst motor spirit deliveries fell by 4.8 per cent. Deliveries into consumption ( million tonnes) DERV fuel Unleaded motor spirit Aviation turbine fuel In 2010 aviation turbine fuel deliveries fell by 3.0 per cent, with snow and volcanic ash factors for lower use. In the fourth quarter of 2010 deliveries of motor spirit decreased by 2.3 per cent while DERV fuel increased by 5.1 per cent when compared with the same period a year earlier. In 2010 DERV fuel s share of road transport fuels was 58.2 per cent compared to 56.0 per cent in Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q In the fourth quarter of 2010 deliveries of aviation turbine fuel increased by 1.3 per cent on the same quarter a year earlier. Chart 3.4 Super/hypermarket shares of retail deliveries 5 Petrol 4 Million tonnes 3 2 Other retailers Sales of motor spirit by super/hypermarket companies accounted for 40.8 per cent of retail sales of petrol in 2010, largely unchanged from 41.0 per cent in Super/hypermarkets In the fourth quarter of 2010, retail sales of motor spirit by the super/hypermarkets accounted for 45.3 per cent of total retail sales. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q DERV fuel 3 Million tonnes 2 Other retailers Sales of DERV by super/hypermarket companies increased by 7.5 per cent between 2009 and 2010, and accounted for 36.2 per cent of retail sales of DERV in 2010, up from 35.3 per cent in Super/hypermarkets In the fourth quarter of 2010, sales of DERV by the super/hypermarkets accounted for 38.1 per cent of total retail sales. 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q March 2011

14 Oil and Oil Products Chart 3.5 Stocks of key oil products (1) Oil Stocks Obligation Overall, stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, decreased by 7.1 per cent at the end of 2010 compared with a year earlier. Million tonnes Compared with a year earlier crude oil and refinery process oil stocks, at 5,878 thousand tonnes, were 2.6 per cent lower while stocks of petroleum products, at 8,936 thousand tonnes, were 9.9 per cent lower Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Stocks at UKCS pipeline terminals decreased by 7.6 per cent (87 thousand tonnes) in At the end of the fourth quarter of 2010, the UK held stocks equal to 85 days of consumption of these key products, compared with an obligation of 67½ days (see Background for more details). (1) This includes motor spirit, DERV fuel, other gas diesel oils, aviation turbine fuel, kerosene and fuel oils. Chart 3.6 Drilling activity on the UKCS Exploration & Appraisal (Offshore) Development (Offshore) Exploration & Appraisal (Onshore) Development (Onshore) 62 exploration and appraisal wells started offshore in 2010, compared to 64 in development wells were drilled offshore in 2010, compared to 131 in Number of wells exploration and appraisal wells started onshore in 2010, compared to 15 in the previous year. 12 development wells were drilled onshore in 2010, compared to 11 in the previous year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Background Relevant tables 3.1: Supply and use of crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks. Page : Supply and use of petroleum products. Page : Supply and use of petroleum products - annual data Page : Supply and use of petroleum products - latest quarter.. Page : Demand for key petroleum products.page : Stocks of petroleum at end of period Page : Drilling activity on the UK Continental Shelf Page 86 March

15 Oil and Oil Products Crude oil production and trade In 2010 crude oil and NGL production was 7.7 per cent lower than in The UK was a net importer of oil and oil products in 2010 by 10.2 million tonnes. About two thirds of UK production of crude oil and NGLs is exported as the UK generally produces a lighter, more valuable crude oil than other areas of the world such as the Middle East or West Africa. UK refineries are relatively modern and as such can cope with having these lower grade crude oils as an input. Therefore the economics of crude oil markets results in significant volumes of crude oil being imported into the UK. Refinery production of petroleum products and trade Refinery output in 2010 was 68.5 million tonnes, 1.8 million tonnes (2.6 per cent) lower than in The fourth quarter of 2010 saw a 3.5 per cent rise in refinery output compared with year earlier. Demand for petroleum products Overall demand for petroleum products in 2010 was 0.5 per cent lower than in Deliveries of motor spirit were lower by 4.8 per cent while DERV deliveries were 4.1 per cent higher at 20.9 million tonnes. Deliveries of aviation turbine fuel decreased by 3.0 per cent. Stocks of crude oil and petroleum products The UK has an obligation under EU law to maintain stocks of key oil products at or above a certain level to ensure adequate supplies would exist for any international oil supply emergency. These obligations are based on the UK's annual consumption of the key products motor spirit, DERV fuel and other gas diesel oils, aviation fuel and other kerosenes and fuel oils. These obligations are usually updated every 1 st July as consumption data for the previous year are finalised. Chart 3.5 above combines data on stocks of key oil products with the product equivalent of stocks of crude oil to give an overall level of UK stocks of key oil products to show how the UK is complying with these obligations at an overall level. The UK's current overall obligation, based on 2010 consumption data, is to hold a total of 11 million tonnes of these products, equal to 67½ days of consumption. 13 March 2011

16 Gas Section 4 Gas Chart 4.1 Production of natural gas Production (TWh) Total UK gross production of natural gas in 2010 was 4.3 per cent lower than in This is one of the smaller decreases in recent years, though should be looked at together with the substantial fall of 14.3 per cent in Total UK gross production of natural gas in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 8.8 per cent lower than in the same quarter of Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Chart 4.2 UK trade in natural gas Exports Imports Net Imports In 2010, compared with 2009, imports and exports of natural gas rose by 29.3 per cent and 28.7 per cent respectively. 120 Net imports of gas in 2010 at TWh, were 29.6 per cent higher than in Trade (TWh) In 2010 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) accounted for just over a third of total gas imports and were nearly double what they were in In 2010, three quarters of LNG imports came from Qatar (see monthly table ET4.4) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q In the fourth quarter of 2010, compared with the same period of 2009, imports and exports of natural gas were, respectively 21.2 per cent and 37.5 per cent higher, with exports at record levels in October. In the fourth quarter of 2010 LNG accounted for about a third of gas imports and was about a third higher than in the fourth quarter of Ninety per cent of LNG imports in the fourth quarter of 2010 came from Qatar (see monthly table ET4.4). Net imports of natural gas in the fourth quarter of 2010 at TWh, were 17.3 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of March

17 Chart 4.3 Natural gas consumption - average of four quarters ending Natural Gas Consumption (TWh) Domestic Heat sold Electricity generators Other industries Iron and steel Other final users 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Gas Demand for gas in 2010 as a whole was 8.3 per cent higher than in Demand for gas in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 6.3 per cent higher than the level in the fourth quarter of Natural gas use for electricity generation increased by 4.3 per cent in 2010 on the 2009 level. In the fourth quarter of 2010, gas use for electricity generation was 12.7 per cent lower than a year earlier. Provisionally, consumption in the domestic sector increased by 15.0 per cent in 2010 as a whole. Consumption in the industrial sector increased by 8.9 per cent and consumption by other final users rose by 5.9 per cent in In the fourth quarter of 2010, consumption in the domestic sector rose by 29.7 per cent on a year earlier as a result of the extremely cold weather and consumption by other final users was up by 3.5 per cent. In the industrial sector consumption increased by 1.7 per cent. Background Relevant table 4.1: Natural gas supply and consumption.. Page 87 Gas production and trade The UK currently exports gas to the Netherlands from the Chiswick, Grove, Markham, Minke, Stamford and Windermere fields, the Irish Republic and the Isle of Man via the Irish UK gas interconnector, to Belgium through the Bacton-Zeebrugge interconnector and to the Norwegian sector of the North Sea for injection into the Norwegian Ula oil field. Imports to the UK are from Belgium via the interconnector, from Norway via the Langeled pipeline, Gjøa gas pipeline (Gjøa/Vega to FLAGS), Tampen Link (Statfjord to FLAGS) and Vesterled pipelines, the Netherlands via the BBL pipeline and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from various sources. Gas consumption Much of the change in the use of gas for electricity generation in recent years is the result of changes in the relative prices of gas and coal. The downturn in 2005 resulted from generators preferring coal when prices reached very high levels at the end of the year. By the end of 2006, however, gas use had risen back to the levels of 2003 and 2004, as prices fell back. This increase continued through to 2007 and However, in 2009, gas use for generation decreased, mainly a result of less use during the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in previous years, when gas use for generation generally tends to be higher. This decline was short-lived as gasfired generation increased in 2010, particularly during the first quarter of 2010 where levels (101,724 GWh) were on par with those seen during the first quarter of 2008 (101,728 GWh), the record high in this quarterly series. Despite the cold weather conditions, similar increases were not seen during the fourth quarter of 2010 (86,741 GWh) compared to the same period in 2009 (99,415 GWh), in fact, levels had declined, due to more coal being used in the generation mix. Gas use in the domestic sector is particularly dependent on temperatures not only during the heating season, but also in summer, when very hot weather deters use for cooking and hot water. Temperatures in 2010 were on average 1.1 degrees Celsius cooler than 2009, resulting in an increase in domestic gas consumption on a year earlier. The exceptionally cold weather snap during December 2010 meant that domestic gas consumption during the fourth quarter of 2010 (138,866 GWh) was 30 per cent higher than the same period in 2009 (107,079 GWh). 15 March 2011

18 Electricity Chart 5.1 Fuel used for electricity generation Section 5 - Electricity 12 Million tonnes of oil equivalent Nuclear Oil, renewable and other fuels Net imports Gas Coal Fuel used by generators in 2010 as a whole was, in total, 0.9 per cent higher than in Fuel used by generators in the fourth quarter of 2010 was, in total, 5.4 per cent higher than in the fourth quarter of Coal use during 2010 was 5.1 per cent higher than in Coal use in the fourth quarter of 2010, was 32.6 per cent higher than a year earlier. Gas use in 2010 was higher than in 2009 by 4.3 per cent. In the fourth quarter of 2010 gas use was 12.7 per cent lower than a year earlier. -2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Chart 5.2 Electricity supplied Coal 28.4% Coal 27.8% Other 1.8% Other 2.2% Renewables 6.9% Renewables 7.0% Nuclear 15.6% Nuclear 17.6% Gas 47.3% Gas 45.5% Total electricity supplied by all generators in 2010 was 1.5 per cent higher (+5.5 TWh) than in Total electricity supplied by all generators in the fourth quarter of 2010 was 5.3 per cent higher (+4.9 TWh) than a year earlier. Indigenous supply in 2010 was 1.5 per cent higher, (+5.6 TWh) than in There were net imports of 2.7 TWh in 2010 compared with net imports of 2.9 TWh in The supply from coal in 2010 rose by 3.9 per cent (+3.9 TWh), while from gas fired stations supply increased by 5.6 per cent (+9.0 TWh). The supply from nuclear stations fell by 10.1 per cent (-6.3 TWh) due to technical problems at some stations. Wind, hydro and other renewables supply was up by 0.1 per cent in 2010 compared to 2009, with hydro down 32.4 per cent (-1.7 TWh) due to much lower rainfall, and wind up 7.7 per cent (+0.7 TWh) due to increased capacity. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the supply from coal rose by 32.0 per cent (+8.3 TWh), while from gas fired stations supply fell by 11.6 per cent (-5.3 TWh). The supply from nuclear stations rose by 4.7 per cent (+0.7 TWh). Wind, hydro and other renewables supply rose by 4.6 per cent (+0.3 TWh). In 2010, coal s share of electricity supplied rose by 0.7 percentage points to 28.4 per cent. Gas s share rose by 1.8 percentage points to 47.3 per cent. Nuclear s share fell 2.0 percentage points from 2009 to 15.6 per cent. The overall share of renewables provisionally decreased by 0.1 percentage points, from 7.0 per cent to 6.9 per cent (largely driven by hydro, with wind s share up 0.2 percentage points to 2.8 per cent), while the share of other fuels fell by 0.3 percentage points to 1.8 per cent. March

19 Chart 5.3 Electricity consumption TWh Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Background Domestic Commercial and Other Industrial Electricity Final consumption of electricity rose by 0.9 per cent in 2010 as a whole compared with Domestic use was up 0.4 per cent, industrial use was up 3.4 per cent and consumption by other final users (including transport sector use) was down by 0.8 per cent. Final consumption of electricity rose by 4.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of Domestic use was up by 4.8 per cent, industrial use was up 4.9 per cent and consumption by other final users (including transport sector use) was 2.9 per cent higher. On average in 2010, temperatures were 1.1 degrees Celsius cooler than in Temperatures in the fourth quarter of 2010 were on average about 2.5 degrees Celsius lower than in the fourth quarter of 2009, due to a cold November and December It was the coldest December on record. Relevant tables 5.1: Fuel used in electricity generation and electricity supplied... Page : Supply and consumption of electricity.. Page 89 Fuel use As a result of falling gas prices, gas use rose in 2007 on 2006, while coal use fell. With the relative price falling further, and the introduction of the Large Combustion Plant Directive, gas rose further to a record level in the first quarter of 2008, before gradually falling off through to the first half of As gas prices fell, however, the second half of 2009 saw gas use rise again, approaching the levels of early 2008, as coal use fell to a record low in the third quarter. Coal use continued to decline in the first half of 2010 compared with 2009, before rising in the next two quarters due to lower gas generation and increased demand. After continuing to increase in the first quarter of 2010, gas use fell in the second, and fell further in the third quarter to a level lower than a year earlier. It rose slightly in the fourth quarter, but remained much lower than the same period in Supply Total electricity supplied in the UK fell steadily between 2007 and 2009, with 2009 the lowest level since However, a cold 2010 saw electricity supplied increase once more. Supply from coalfired stations increased after falling to a record low in 2009, with supply from gas also increasing after falling in 2009 from 2008 s record level. After falling to its lowest level since 1998 in 2007, and then further in 2008, due to the closure of two stations and a high level of outages, supply from nuclear picked up again in late 2008, and 2009 saw an increase of almost a third on However, outages in the second and third quarters of 2010 saw nuclear supply fall again. From 2007 to 2009, both natural flow hydro and wind supply continually rose, with the latter reaching record levels each time, as new capacity continued to come online. After falling in the first half of 2010 due to low wind speeds, wind supply increased markedly in the second half of 2010 as capacity increased. With low rainfall in the first three quarters, hydro fell by a third in 2010 on a year earlier. Imports and exports of electricity from and to continental Europe are volatile, with suppliers taking advantage of price differentials due to extreme weather, industrial disputes, or production difficulties. Whilst net imports doubled in 2008, in 2009 they fell by three-quarters, as the UK became a net exporter in the fourth quarter, for the first time in six years, continuing into the first quarter of The UK has since become a net importer again, and was for 2010 as a whole. Consumption In 2007, final consumption fell by 0.7 per cent on 2006 and fell slightly in Throughout 2009, there were large falls on a year earlier, with the year as a whole down by 5.7 per cent on a year earlier. Consumption in 2010 was divided 31.0 per cent to the domestic, 26.7 per cent to industry and 27.2 per cent to commerce, public administration, transport and agriculture. Fuel industries accounted for a further 7.6 per cent with the remaining 7.5 per cent accounted for by transmission and distribution losses. 17 March 2011

20 Special feature Diversity indices Diversity of supply for oil and oil products in OECD countries Introduction This article assesses how the UK s demand for oil and oil products is met through a combination of indigenous production and imports, and how this profile compares with other OECD countries. Introduction and summary Countries meet their oil needs through a combination of indigenous production and trade. Within the OECD, there is significant refining capacity and many countries produce enough to meet all of their needs through indigenous production. This is particularly the case for petrol. For other products and countries, jet fuel and diesel road fuel are in shorter supply. This paper presents a perspective on diversity of supply by combining indigenous production with a measure of the diversity of imports. Whilst self-sufficiency and diversity are important to energy security, they are not the whole picture and the results should not be seen as a complete index of relative security. On the data presented in this paper, the UK meets most of its needs for crude oil and motor spirit from indigenous production, depending on its offshore fields and the production profiles of its refineries. Conversely, the UK relies on imports to meet its requirements for jet fuel and diesel road fuel as its refineries do not meet demand from increasing air movements and the shift towards diesel cars. The data show that the UK is supplementing its indigenous capacity with a diverse trading position where its indigenous capacity does not meet current demand. Charting oil diversity of supply This paper uses two presentations to examine indigenous production and the diversity of imports: Oil diversity profiles The profiles demonstrate the relationship between a country s demand, its indigenous production and the diversity of its gross imports. The profiles show: Self-sufficiency: the proportion of a country s demand that could be met through indigenous production is shown on the vertical axis. A diversity score: the diversity of a country s gross imports is shown on the horizontal axis, using an index 1 ranging between 0 and 1. Higher values equate to more diverse imports. Demand: is a sphere the area of which indicates the level of demand. Diversity index The index offers another way of comparing countries. It combines two elements: i.) the proportion of demand that is met through indigenous production, with ii.) a diversity component that weights the proportion of demand met through imports with the diversity score. Within the index, the two elements are equally weighted so a country with perfectly diverse imports would be equivalent to a country that meets all its needs through indigenous capacity and vice versa. 2 1 The diversity index score is derived by subtracting the Herfindahl index from 1. 2 One result of the equivalence between production and imports is that the index can flatten differences between countries, as several countries produce more oil than they require to meet their own needs. Appendix 1 shows the underlying data, and clearly identifies countries where indigenous production exceeds domestic needs. March

21 Special feature Diversity indices Crude Oil The chart below shows the diversity profile for a selection of OECD countries. As the majority of OECD countries do not produce significant volumes of crude oil, there is a clustering effect to the bottom of the vertical axis. The graph also shows that the majority of OECD countries have a diverse source of imports. The UK has relatively low import diversity (since most of its crude oil imports come from Norway), but in 2009 it could meet most of its demand through indigenous production Crude Oil Diversity Profile Norway 2.4 Self Sufficiency Canada Mexico United Kingdom Australia United States 0.4 Japan Poland Belgium France Germany Italy Spain 0.2 Korea Diversity Index Netherlands The diversity index for crude oil reflects this picture with the majority of countries showing index scores that reflect diversity of imports, not indigenous production. The graph shows that in 2009 the UK placed well in the ranking of OECD comparisons as it was one of the few countries with significant oil production. Iceland and Luxembourg (asterixed) have no refinery intake so are not dependent on crude oil. They are included for completeness only Crude Oil Diversity Index Indigenous Component Diversity Component 19 March 2011

22 Special feature Diversity indices Jet Fuel The situation for jet fuel is substantially different, with many OECD countries having significant production capacity. Korea is particularly strong, and produces some three times its demand and requires no imports. Japan also has no imports. The UK s capacity to meet its demand through indigenous production is low: in 2009 it could meet only around half its demand, which is one of the largest deficits in the OECD. However, this was compensated by the most diverse import sources within the OECD. 3.5 Jet Fuel Diversity Profile 3.0 Korea 2.5 Self Sufficiency Netherlands 1.0 Japan Mexico Australia Canada Belgium Turkey United States Italy France 0.5 Germany United Kingdom Spain Diversity Index The diversity index reflects this picture with the UK being mid-rank for jet fuel. It is illustrative to compare the UK s position with Norway: the overall positions are similar but the composition of the index reflects the differential strengths (with the UK s scoring higher for diversity and Norway s score reflecting the capacity of its indigenous production). 1.0 Jet Fuel Diversity Index Indigenous Component Diversity Component March

23 Special feature Diversity indices Motor Spirit Motor spirit production across the OECD is a particular strength, because the refining profile has historically been biased towards petrol production. With the increasing shift to dieselisation of road transport, most OECD countries more than meet their consumption needs. Despite this, import diversity is strong, with many countries actively trading in motor spirit. The UK s position reflects good indigenous production and a diverse range of trading partners. 2.5 Motor Spirit Diversity Profile 2.0 Self sufficiency Japan Australia France Italy Netherlands Korea Spain Germany United Kingdom Sweden Canada Poland Greece United States Mexico Diversity Index The vast bulk of OECD members produce enough petrol to meet their needs. Accordingly, the diversity index currently shows little differentiation between the majority of the OECD countries. Appendix 1 shows greater detail on indigenous capacity Motor Spirit Diversity Index Indigenous Component Diversity Component 21 March 2011

24 Special feature Diversity indices Diesel Road Fuel Unlike the pattern for motor spirit, many countries do not produce enough domestically to meet their demand for diesel road fuel. There is also a broader spread of diversity, with many countries having a relatively poor trading pattern vis-à-vis other oil products. Not all countries make a distinction between gasoil used for road fuel and other purposes. For those countries, values have been estimated and shown with an (e). 2.5 Diesel Road Fuel Diversity Profile 2.0 Korea (e) Netherlands 1.5 Self sufficiency 1.0 Mexico Japan Canada United States (e) Germany Belgium Poland Italy United Kingdom 0.5 Australia France Turkey Spain Diversity Index Unsurprisingly, a greater number of countries are below the maximum of the index. The UK is midplaced in the OECD, with a similar ranking to its jet fuel ranking. In 2009 the UK could meet around half of its demand through indigenous production, and its diversity score was above the average for the OECD Diesel Road Fuel Diversity Index Indigenous Component Diversity Component March

25 Special feature Diversity indices Historical trend for the UK. This table shows the indigenous and diversity component figures for each of the key oil products for the UK from 2000 to Reliable data before 2006 for diesel road fuel are not available Crude Oil Indigenous Component Diversity Component Total Jet Fuel Indigenous Component Diversity Component Total Motor Spirit Indigenous Component Diversity Component Total Diesel Road Fuel Indigenous Component Diversity Component Total The data show that over time the UK is meeting less of its needs through indigenous production, but this has been offset by the increase in the diversity of imports. This is particularly the case for jet fuel where declining self-sufficiency has seen a marked increase in the diversity of imports. Over time, the declining profile of the UK s indigenous production will require sustained investment not only in maintaining the existing import infrastructure, but also for seeking new opportunities where necessary. Further work DECC Energy Statistics are planning to investigate weighting the index by a variety of political stability indicators. Comments on the development of this work are welcome. Warren Evans Jessica Nunn Oil Statistics Oil Statistics Tel: Tel: Warren.Evans@decc.gsi.gov.uk Jessica.Nunn@decc.gsi.gov.uk 23 March 2011

26 Special feature Diversity indices Appendix 1 Provisional Data for 2009 Crude Oil Motor Spirit Jet Fuel Diesel Road Fuel Diversity Demand (KT) Diversity Demand (KT) Diversity Demand (KT) Diversity Selfsufficiency Selfsufficiency Selfsufficiency Selfsufficiency Demand (KT) Australia , , , ,528 Austria , , ,958 Belgium , , , ,053 Canada , , , ,999 Czech Republic , , ,111 Denmark , , ,411 Finland , , ,164 France , , , ,514 Germany , , , ,066 Greece , , , ,210 Hungary , , ,991 Iceland Ireland , , ,382 Italy , , , ,112 Japan , , , ,387 Korea , , , ,676 Luxembourg ,426 Mexico , , , ,069 Netherlands , , , ,970 New Zealand , , , ,311 Norway , , ,016 Poland , , ,675 Portugal , , ,007 Slovak Republic , ,246 Spain , , , ,909 Sweden , , ,685 Switzerland , , , ,229 Turkey , , , ,053 United Kingdom , , , ,803 United States , , , ,088 Source: IEA Items in bold highlight those countries where indigenous capacity exceeds domestic consumption. March

27 Special feature Energy Trends oil and gas tables Improvements to Energy Trends oil and gas tables To reflect several developments in the gas and petroleum markets, changes are being made to tables to expand information available. This article sets out how tables are being expanded to provide more information on LNG and diesel use, and the rationale for the changes. The new data are an addition to existing information. UK production and imports of natural gas Gross production of natural gas peaked in 2000 and has since been in general decline as gas reserves deplete. As can be seen from the chart below, UK natural gas production in 2010, at 54 bcm, was about half of peak production Billion cubic metres As natural gas production has fallen so larger volumes of gas have been imported. Particularly notable over the last couple of years is the increase in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import capacity from the two new LNG terminals at Milford Haven (South Hook and Dragon) and the expansion of the LNG terminal at the Isle of Grain. The charts below show how this additional capacity has changed the pattern of gas imports between 2008 and Note that the increase in LNG has not been at the expense of existing pipeline feeds. As the chart shows, total gross imports doubled between 2008 and 2010 and the UK imported substantially more gas via pipeline in 2010 than it did in The importance of gas imports was notable in 2010 when, because of significantly lower than average temperatures at the beginning of the year and high demand for gas for electricity generation, the highest ever monthly demand was recorded in January In 2010 net imports of natural gas were equivalent to about 40 per cent of UK final consumption. 25 March 2011

28 Special feature Energy Trends oil and gas tables As well as the need for additional imports of natural gas the diversity of supply is an important factor. In 2010 LNG accounted for about a third of total gas imports and was sourced from Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Trinidad & Tobago and Yemen. About three quarters of these LNG imports came from Qatar. Just under half of the UK s total gas imports were sourced from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Supplies were also delivered to the UK from the European mainland via the Balgzand (Netherlands)-Bacton and Bacton-Zeebrugge (Belgium) interconnectors. Transparency on the sources of the UK s gas imports is important and with effect from 31 March a new monthly Energy Trends table ET4.4 will be published on the DECC website at: showing the UK s pipeline imports by individual pipelines and the origins of LNG imports. This new table will be updated monthly and is designed to supplement the data contained in existing monthly Energy Trends tables ET4.2 and ET4.3. Clive Evans Upstream Oil and Gas Tel: Clive.Evans@decc.gsi.gov.uk Separating refinery output of road diesel (DERV) from gas oil in monthly, quarterly and annual oil tables. Diesel road fuel has been capturing a larger part of the market share at the expense of petrol over recent years. Table ET3.13 of monthly energy trends separates deliveries of gas oil by road and non road elements, but historically refinery output of gas oil has not been split in the same way in table ET3.12. As gas oil for road and non-road purposes has different import dependency profiles, this can give a restricted view of the UK s refinery outputs and import dependency. Accordingly, with effect from 31 March, Energy Trends table ET3.12 will contain a breakdown of road and non-road gas oil separately. Road use of gas oil will be reported as Diesel Engined Road Vehicle fuel (DERV) as per table ET3.13. It should be noted that the split between DERV and gas oil is estimated prior to 2005 as data to produce the split are not available before that time. The estimate is based on the monthly averages for 2006 to 2010 and it is at best indicative for earlier periods and should be treated with caution. Monthly estimates were used as the gas oil element of the gas diesel oil category is seasonal as it can be used for heating. Broadly, the gas oil element tends to account for just over 40% of the production in winter, dropping to just above mid 30% for summer months. Changes to quarterly and annual publications will follow in June and July respectively. Quarterly data will now add production to the existing consumption breakdown by selected sectors (Tables ET3.3 and ET3.4), and annual tables will provide information on production, imports, exports, and detailed consumption information, along with a stocks breakdown (DUKES 3.2, 3.3, 3.4 and 3.7). In order to retain the readability of DUKES tables 3.2, 3.3, and 3.4, the column for Petroleum Wax will no longer be reported separately and will instead be merged with miscellaneous products. Petroleum wax accounts for less than 0.1% of the UK s energy demand and is used entirely for non-energy uses. These data will be available separately on request. Alison Colquhoun Downstream Oil Tel: Alison.Colquhoun@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

29 Special feature Carbon dioxide emissions Carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in the UK In recent years, the March edition of Energy Trends has incorporated a special feature on carbon dioxide emissions. This article included the first publication of the estimated carbon dioxide emissions for the most recent calendar year, and provided additional details of the underlying energy data. For users of Energy Trends, this explained the close links between energy production/consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. These emissions estimates for the most recent year have also been reported separately each year in another statistical release, which specifically focuses on greenhouse gas emissions, and which also includes details of other new emissions data which become available at the same time. Until recently, this latter publication was produced by Defra, whereas the Energy Trends publication was produced by BERR (now BIS). With the creation of the Department of Energy and Climate Change, in order to avoid duplication it has now been decided to discontinue the Energy Trends article. The information in the article is now incorporated in the statistical release on greenhouse gas emissions, which provides a breakdown of the emissions by source sector and fuel type, and which continues to explain the link with the energy data. This statistical release is published on the same day as the March edition of Energy Trends, and can be found on the DECC website at: v/2010_prov.aspx Any enquiries about this statistical release or UK carbon dioxide emissions in general should be sent to the following address: Climatechange.Statistics@decc.gsi.gov.uk 27 March 2011

30 Special feature Renewable electricity 2010 Renewable Electricity 2010 provisional data This article presents the first estimates of renewable electricity generation and capacity for 2010, using data presented in the Energy Trends internet only table, ET 7.1, available at: As noted these are provisional results. The 2010 data are still being finalised, particularly as not all data for December are currently available so estimates have been included. The figures in this article will be updated in the June edition of Energy Trends, and finalised in July s Digest of UK Energy Statistics, when data are added from annual surveys, and estimates of generation from the new Feed in Tariff (FiT) scheme are included. Actual generation data from the FiT scheme will be available in March 2012, when there may be further small revisions. The article also explains four key measures of renewables share of overall electricity, and compares the shares obtained for 2010 using them. Renewable electricity generation Provisional figures for 2010 show renewable generation, excluding non-biodegradable wastes, was 25,335 GWh. This represented an increase of 0.4 per cent on 2009 s figure of 25,222 GWh. The largest increase in generation, both in absolute and percentage terms, came from offshore wind, reflecting the large increase in capacity over the course of the year. Offshore wind generation grew 75 per cent, from 1,740 GWh in 2009 to 3,042 GWh in Additionally, cofiring increased by over one third, from 1,806 GWh in 2009 to 2,452 GWh in Countering the increases in offshore wind and co-firing generation, however, were falls to two of the largest contributors to renewable generation: onshore wind and hydro. Increased onshore wind capacity could not make up for the low wind speeds experienced for much of the year, with the result that onshore wind generation fell 8 per cent, from 7,564 GWh in 2009 to 6,979 GWh in Meanwhile, particularly low rainfall throughout 2010 meant that hydro output fell by around one third on 2009 s level, from 5,662 GWh to 3,557 GWh. Renewable electricity capacity Renewable electricity capacity, excluding that attributed to co-firing, rose 12 per cent in 2010, from 8,031 MW installed at the end of 2009, to 9,021 MW installed at the end of The majority of this is due to increases of 476 MW in onshore wind and 400 MW in offshore wind (a 42 per cent increase on that installed at the end of 2009). Whilst still contributing less than 1 per cent of renewable capacity, solar photovoltaic capacity more than doubled in 2010, as a result of the FiT scheme. Renewables share of electricity measures There are four key measures of renewables share of electricity that can be calculated using the data in ET 7.1 (as well as tables ET 5.1 and ET 5.2). These are all slightly different, and thus give different results. These are summarised in the table below: Measure Numerator Denominator International Basis Renewable generation Total electricity generation 2008 Renewable Energy Directive Renewable generation (including normalised hydro and Gross electricity consumption: Total electricity supply minus 2001 Renewables Directive (normalised method) wind generation*) Renewable generation (including normalised hydro and wind generation*) 2001 Renewables Directive Renewable generation (original method) *these data are not directly available from Energy Trends tables pumped storage generation Electricity demand Electricity demand March

31 Special feature Renewable electricity 2010 The first method for calculating renewables share of electricity is the International basis. This is renewable electricity generation s share of total electricity generation. The second method is that used for the European Union s (EU) 2008 Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 1. This sets the UK a target of 15 per cent of gross final energy consumption to come from all renewable energy sources in As part of this measure, the renewable electricity component is calculated as the share of gross electricity consumption. Gross electricity consumption includes all electricity supply (which includes not only electricity generation but also net imports of electricity including net imports), minus generation from pumped storage. Additionally, in order to negate the effects of variable generation due to weather differentials from one year to the next, the RED measure specifies the normalisation of wind and hydro generation. Normalisation is carried out by calculating generation by applying an average load factor to current capacity. For wind, the load factor is calculated as the average of the past five years (including the present one), with current capacity taken as an average of the start and end of year capacity. For hydro, the load factor is the average of the past 15 years, applied to capacity at the end of the current year. The third and fourth methods are those used for the EU s 2001 Renewables Directive (RD). The RD specified a target of 10 per cent of electricity demand to come from renewable generation by Initially, actual renewable generation was used in the numerator. However, since the 2008 RED measure was established, it has been advised by the European Union s Statistical Office (Eurostat) that normalisation should also be carried out to the numerator in the 2001 RD measure. Therefore, both the original and normalised generation methods are presented here. The denominator (electricity demand) differs from the previous two methods. Electricity demand is total use of electricity, including final consumption, losses and own use of electricity by generators. Barring a small statistical difference, electricity demand is equal to electricity supply. Provisional renewable electricity shares for 2010 (compared with 2009) A breakdown of the calculations for the four measures of renewable electricity s share of total electricity, for 2009 and, provisionally, for 2010 are given in the following tables. As can be seen, the 2008 RED measure shows the largest renewables share for 2010, at 7.3 per cent, an increase of 0.7 percentage points on 2009; while the normalised 2001 RD measure shows a 7.2 per cent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points on The other two, non-normalised, measures both show a 0.1 per cent fall in renewables share, from 6.7 per cent in 2009 to 6.6 per cent in The 2010 figure under the RED measure is 0.7 percentage points higher than that obtained under the International basis, and the original 2001 RD measure. Whilst the denominator does not differ enough from the other two measures to make a significant difference to the results (being within one per cent of the other two measures), it is the numerator that does, being 10 per cent higher than in the other two measures. The higher numerator in the RED measure (and normalised 2001 RD measure) is due to the normalisation of wind and hydro. Very low rainfall and wind speeds in 2010 resulted in lower than usual generation. However, with normalisation applying load factors experienced over several years, and with increased wind capacity, generation has been increased. In 2009, it can also be seen that both of the normalised measures shows similar results to the other two measures, reduced slightly due to the higher levels of rainfall in that year causing actual hydro generation to be higher than expected. 1 Further information on the EU s Renewable Energy Directive can be found here: 29 March 2011

32 Special feature Renewable electricity 2010 International Basis: Component Wind generation (GWh) 9,304 10,021 Hydro generation (GWh) 5,262 3,557 Other renewable generation (GWh) 10,656 11,757 Total Renewable generation (GWh) 25,222 25,335 Total electricity generation (GWh) 375, ,247 Renewables share (%) 6.7% 6.6% 2008 Renewable Energy Directive: Component Normalised wind generation (GWh) 9,334 11,128 Normalised hydro generation (GWh) 4,910 4,794 Other renewable generation (GWh) 10,656 11,757 Total Renewable generation (GWh) 24,900 27,679 Gross electricity consumption (GWh) 374, ,760 Renewables share (%) 6.6% 7.3% 2001 Renewables Directive (normalised): Component Total Renewable generation (GWh) (as 24,900 27,679 calculated in 2008 RED basis above) Electricity demand (GWh) 378, ,212 Renewables share (%) 6.6% 7.2% 2001 Renewables Directive (original): Component Total Renewable generation (GWh) (as 25,222 25,335 calculated in International Basis above) Electricity demand (GWh) 378, ,212 Renewables share (%) 6.7% 6.6% James Hemingway Energy Statistics Tel: March

33 Special feature Renewable energy supply around the world Renewable energy supply around the world, 2008 Introduction The Carbon Plan 1 outlines the UK s commitment to sustainable development and decarbonisation of the UK economy. One of the many ways the UK plans to achieve this, along with countries around the world, are by developing alternative, more environmentally friendly sources of energy whilst ensuring the security of supply. This article looks at renewable energy use in selected countries around the world in 2007 and Methodology The share of renewable energy is defined as the ratio of total renewable energy supply to total primary energy supply (defined as production plus imports minus exports plus/minus stock changes). Both are measured in million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and are calculated using net calorific values (as opposed to gross calorific values used in the calculation of UK energy balances). This definition of renewable energy supply is different to that used to measure progress towards the EU Renewable Energy Directive but is chosen to allow comparisons over a wide range of countries. The statistics in this article are supplied to the International Energy Agency (IEA) by OECD member countries. For non-oecd countries the IEA collects information from a variety of sources (e.g. national submissions to the United Nations and national energy publications), as such there is a greater degree of estimation in the data for non-oecd countries. The IEA then use these data to publish key world energy statistics to help monitor global energy use. These statistics can be found in Table 1, Part III Renewables Data Overview in the IEA Statistics: Renewable Information 2010 publication. The publication also includes provisional data for OECD countries only in The publication also provides definitions of all outputs presented in this article. Total Primary Energy Supply Internationally, total primary energy supply in 2007 was 11,708 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), not including world marine and aviation bunkers. The USA, China, Russia, India and Japan made up 51.9 per cent (6,082 Mtoe), with the USA contributing 20.0 per cent and China 16.8 per cent. The sum of these five countries share in 2008 increased by very little (0.1 per cent), where their total primary energy supply was 6,204 Mtoe (52.0 per cent). In 2008, world primary energy supply saw an increase on 2007 of 1.9 per cent. This was a result of countries having a balanced mixture of increases and decreases on the previous year. Chart 1 gives the top 25 countries ordered by total primary energy supply in 2007 and shows the change in Of the top five countries, primary energy supply from both the USA and Japan fell by 2.3 per cent and 3.8 per cent to 2,284 Mtoe and 496 Mtoe respectively, whilst China showed the largest increase (7.8 per cent) of these five countries and had the most impact on the overall growth rate of total primary energy supply, contributing 1.3 percentage points (out of the total increase of 1.9 percentage points). Uruguay, which is not shown in Chart 1 due to low primary energy supply compared to the countries in the chart, had the largest percentage change between 2007 and 2008 of 32.0 per cent, but contributed less than 0.1 percentage points to the overall growth between the two time periods March 2011

34 Special feature Renewable energy supply around the world Chart 1: Top 25 primary energy supply by country, 2007 and ,500 2, Mtoe 1,500 1, United States China Russian India Japan Germany Canada France Brazil South Korea UK Iran Indonesia Mexico Italy Saudi Arabia Spain Ukraine South Africa Australia Nigeria Thailand Chinese Taipei Turkey Poland Renewable energy supply Renewables accounted for 13.3 per cent (1,590 Mtoe) of total primary energy supply in 2008, 0.2 percentage points higher compared to 2007 (1,537 Mtoe). Energy supplied by renewables increased by 3.4 per cent between 2007 and The growth was led by China, which contributed 0.8 percentage points of the 3.4 per cent increase and had the largest percentage share of renewables in both 2007 and 2008 (around 16.0 per cent). Chart 2 shows that in 2008, India had the second largest share (11.0 per cent), followed by the United States (7.7 per cent), Brazil (7.0 per cent) and Nigeria (5.7 per cent). On the other end of the spectrum, there were 7 countries in total (Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Gibraltar, Kuwait, Netherlands Antilles, Oman and Singapore) that did not contribute at all to the world s renewable energy total. From the top 25 countries shown in Chart 3, Italy which ranks twenty-second internationally for level of renewable energy supply showed the largest percentage increase (11.6 per cent) between 2007 and In 2007, Iran supplied 2 Mtoe of renewable energy, however, this total declined in 2008 to 1 Mtoe, the largest percentage decrease (44.1 per cent) out of all countries supplying renewables. This was followed by a decline in Kyrgyzstan (22.9 per cent), Algeria (22.5 per cent), Syrian Arab Republic (18.0 per cent) and Peru (17.1 per cent). These countries only contribute around 0.4 per cent to the overall renewables total. March

35 Special feature Renewable energy supply around the world Chart 2: Share of renewable energy supply by country, 2008 Rest of the World 37.7% China 16.4% Vietnam 1.7% Ethiopia 1.9% India 11.0% Germany 1.9% Pakistan 2.0% Canada 2.9% Indonesia 4.3% Nigeria 5.7% Brazil 7.0% United States 7.7% Chart 3: Top 25 renewable energy supply by country, 2007 and Mtoe China India United States Brazil Nigeria Indonesia Canada Pakistan Germany Ethiopia Vietnam Congo Russian Thailand France Mexico Philippines Japan Tanzania Sweden Kenya Italy South Africa Norway Spain Renewable energy supply as a percentage of total primary energy supply Paraguay s shares of renewable energy as a percentage of primary energy supply were per cent and per cent, in 2007 and 2008, respectively (Chart 4). These shares are high as a result of Paraguay s investment in the Itaipu Dam (a hydroelectric dam) along the Parana River along the border between Paraguay and Brazil. While some of this renewable energy contributes to Paraguay s primary energy supply, the rest of it contributes to Brazil s primary energy supply, totalling 235 Mtoe in 2007 and 249 Mtoe in March 2011

36 Special feature Renewable energy supply around the world Chart 4: Top 25 renewable energy supply as a percentage of total primary energy supply by country, 2007 and % 160% 140% % 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Paraguay Congo Mozambique Ethiopia Zambia Tanzania Nepal Kenya Togo Iceland Nigeria Eritrea Cameroon Côte d'ivoire Ghana Haiti Cambodia Zimbabwe Myanmar Sudan Angola El Salvador Nicaragua Benin Guatemala Although China contributes a lot of renewable energy it s percentage out of total primary energy supply (12.6%) does not put it in the top 25 countries due to the country s high energy use. The same is also true for the United States which has a percentage of 4.9. African countries dominate the top 25 countries due to their low energy use and high use of biomass. Continent shares in renewable energy supply In 2008, Asia s renewable energy supply represented 44.6 per cent (709 Mtoe) of total renewable supply (1,590 Mtoe), more than double that of Africa s share of 20.4 per cent (324 Mtoe), who were the second largest renewable suppliers in the world (Chart 5). These shares were largely a result of the production of renewable energy by countries such as China, India & Nigeria. These continents represented 1.8 percentage points of the overall growth rate (3.4 per cent) in renewable energy supply. Chart 5: Renewable energy supply by continent, 2008 Europe 11.6% South America 9.7% Oceania 0.8% North America 13.0% Africa 20.4% Asia 44.6% March

37 Special feature Renewable energy supply around the world Overall, there has been very little change in these shares when compared to 2007, though, the largest percentage change between the two years was in Europe, where renewable energy supply increased by 5.8 per cent from 174 Mtoe in 2007 to 184 Mtoe in However, when looking at the share of renewables out of total primary energy supply for each continent, Africa leads with 49.4 per cent in 2008, followed by South America with 31.4 per cent and Asia with 12.2 per cent. Fuel shares in renewable energy supply Combustible renewables and waste accounted for more than three quarters of global renewables in 2008 at 77.0 per cent (Chart 7), this share remains unchanged since China s supply from combustible renewables and waste made up 16.6 per cent of the international total, 1,225 Mtoe. This was followed closely by India, who contributed 13.4 per cent. Chart 7: Fuel shares in renewable energy supply, 2008 Hydro 17.4% Geothermal 3.7% Solar/wind/ other 1.9% Combustible renewables and waste 77.0% Renewable energy sourced from hydro plants was the second biggest contributor to total renewable energy in 2008 at 17.4 per cent. Once again, China had the largest share of hydro renewable energy as a percentage of total hydro renewable energy (276 Mtoe), at 18.2 per cent. Both Canada and Brazil followed close second with a share of 11.9 per cent and 11.5 per cent. Geothermal energy represented 3.7 per cent of overall renewables (58 Mtoe). Indonesia was responsible for 24.4 per cent of this total in 2008, followed by the Philippines with 9.2 Mtoe. Energy supply from other renewable sources such as solar and wind, accounted for 1.9 per cent in 2008 as a percentage of other renewables, 6.4 Mtoe higher than in As with combustible renewables and waste, and hydro energy, China and the United States contributed the largest share (21.1 and 20.0 per cent respectively). Tamer Onder Mita Kerai Energy Statistics Energy Statistics Tel: Tel: Tamer.Onder@decc.gsi.gov.uk Mita.Kerai@decc.gsi.gov.uk 35 March 2011

38 Special feature Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level Introduction The following article provides an overview of the latest analysis of sub-national electricity and gas consumption at both Middle Layer Super Output Area (MLSOA) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LLSOA). These data relate to 2009 and represent a finer disaggregation of the data published at Local Authority level in the December 2010 edition of Energy Trends. This article only acts as an overview for the datasets; along with the data, detailed background notes on data interpretation can be found on DECC s regional energy statistics website at: These datasets, along with all of DECC s sub-national energy consumption datasets, were developed to help local authorities and regional bodies target their energy efficiency-related activities effectively. This supplementary level of disaggregation, below local authority level, aids users to monitor and target smaller areas for further intervention as parts of their local energy strategies and enhance implementation of energy efficiency programmes and help reduce carbon dioxide emissions. DECC s innovative approach of using administrative data from energy companies to produce official statistics was recognised last year by the Royal Statistical Society, who awarded DECC the Innovation and Development award for excellence in official statistics for our work in producing energy data below local authority level. To improve the usage of the published datasets listed below, this edition of the article provides additional context behind the statistical geographies that the energy consumption data has been broken down into. This additional information is intended to help facilitate improved user understanding and enable more effective and valuable use of the data. Summary of published datasets The following sub-national datasets, for 2009, were published on the 31st March 2011 at the link provided above. Data published at MLSOA level: Domestic estimates of electricity consumption - split by ordinary domestic and economy 7 tariff Non domestic estimates of electricity consumption - excluding half-hourly consumption Domestic estimates of gas consumption Non domestic estimates of gas consumption Data published at LLSOA level: Domestic estimates of electricity consumption - split by ordinary domestic and economy 7 tariff Domestic estimates of gas consumption Further information on these levels of geography are detailed below. March

39 Special feature Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level Statistical geographies DECC publish sub-national gas and electricity meter point consumption data for England and Wales aggregated to different levels of geography namely local authority level (non-metropolitan districts, unitary authorities, London Borough and metropolitan districts), middle layer super output area (MLSOA) and lower layer super output area (LLSOA). Data for Scotland is published at Council area level and at intermediate geography zone (IGZ) level. Both MLSOAs and LLSOAs are a level statistical geography developed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) as part of the 2001 census. LLSOAs have a minimum population of 1,000 (or around 400 households) and are used as building blocks for MLSOAs which have a minimum population of 5,000 (or around 2,000 households). In turn MLSOAs are building blocks for Local Authorities - as illustrated by the three maps on this page. Map 1 identifies Warwick local authority within the West Midlands English Region. Map 2 then shows all 15 MLSOAs within Warwick LA highlighting MLSOA 005 which is made-up from 7 LLSOAs shown in Map 3. Map 1: Warwick Local Authority within the West Midlands English Region Map 2: MLSOAs within Warwick LA with MLSOA 005 highlighted Map 3: LLSOAs within MLSOA 005, with LLSOA 005A highlighted 37 March 2011

40 Special feature Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level The following sections describe how the geographies were initially formed. Development of LLSOAs/MLSOAs LLSOAs are not the lowest unit of statistical geography. The smallest Census based areas are Output Areas (OAs). These were created on a basis of approximately 125 households in England and Wales and 50 in Scotland. The OAs were produced taking into account population, number of households and other socio-economic characteristic. This helped to standardize population size and maximise internal social homogeneity. Further details of the methodology used in designing OAs are given in the University of Southampton paper Geography for the 2001 Census in England and Wales, available under the Further Information/Census Geography Products section at: Super Output Area geography in England and Wales The Output Areas were then used as the building blocks for higher level geographies. The Super Output Area Geography were developed for England and Wales. In England and Wales there are 34,378 Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LLSOAs), which were generated by a computer programme which merged together between 4 and 6 Output Areas, taking into consideration mutual proximity and other characteristics. The LLSOAs were also constrained by the boundaries of the Standard Table (ST) wards, used for 2001 Census Outputs. The Standard Tables are a set of detailed cross-tabulations providing the base of pre-planned output for England and Wales. They are available from national to ward level. LLSOAs were then used in generating the Middle Layer Super Output Areas (MLSOAs) in England and Wales. The 7,193 MLSOAs were created in a two stage process. The first stage involved merging LSOAs with consideration of mutual proximity, target population, number of households and the 2003 Local Authority (LA) boundaries, whilst the second stage involved the consultation with LAs, to ensure these new geographies met local needs. Statistical geographies in Scotland Scottish geographies were developed in slightly different way. The Scottish equivalent of LLSOAs are Data Zones (DZs). They were built upon the 1981 Census OAs, however the minimum number of household residents was half of that for LLSOA. It is also important to note that the socio economic variables used in development of DZs is different to the one used for LLSOAs. The methods used when creating Data Zones are outlined in the report, provided by St Andrews University, available at: Intermediate geography zones (IGZ) were built from clusters of data zones and fit within Council area boundaries. Each IGZ has a minimum of 2,500 household residents. As with Super Output Area (SOA) geographies in the rest of the UK, the intermediate geography is intended to be stable to any changes in local government. March

41 Special feature Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level The table below presents the minimum population and approximate number of households for Super Output Areas and Geography Zones. Table 1. Minimum population and approximate number of households per area Minimum population Approximate number of households MLSOA 5,000 2,000 IGZ 2,500 1,000 LLSOA 1, DZ Data restrictions All sub-national statistics published by DECC are subject to the UK Statistics Authority s Code of Practice for Official Statistics 1. The Code helps uphold the quality during the production and publication stages of official statistics. Part of the Code of Practice concerns safeguarding the identity of an individual or organisation, or any private information relating to them, taking into account other relevant sources of information. For this reason, DECC are only able to publish domestic gas and electricity consumption data at LLSOA level. Non-domestic consumption data is available at MLSOA level in England and Wales and IGZ level in Scotland. In addition, the gas and electricity consumption data at Data Zone (DZ) level are not available for Scotland. The 6,505 DZs each have a minimum population of 500 and DECC have an agreement with the energy companies that, for disclosure reasons, data will not be published at DZ level. The table below presents the number of areas per country and lists the datasets available at each level. Table 2: Number of geographies by country and energy data coverage Number of areas England Wales Scotland MLSOA 6, IGZ - - 1,235 Data coverage Electricity: Ordinary domestic, Economy 7, Non domestic (excluding Half Hourly) Gas*: Domestic and Non - domestic LLSOA 32,482 1,896 - Electricity: Ordinary domestic and Economy 7 Gas*: Domestic * The gas industry uses a nominal 73,200 kwh level as the cut off point for defining customers as domestic or non domestic users. It is estimated that this incorrectly allocates the energy use of about 2 million small businesses as domestic. 1 The Code of Practice is available on the following website: 39 March 2011

42 Special feature Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level For gas and electricity, there is information for each MLSOA and IGZ on total consumption, total number of meters and average consumption for non domestic and domestic consumers (which is further split for electricity by domestic standard tariff and domestic off peak based tariffs such as economy 7). Due to data disclosure issues, consumption relating to half hourly non domestic electricity consumers who are generally larger energy users has not been disaggregated below local authority level (i.e. it is excluded from MLSOA data). Similarly, for each LLSOA in England and Wales, there is information on total consumption, total number of meters and average consumption for domestic consumers (again split by standard tariff and economy 7 tariff for electricity). Users should note, however, that a small number of LLSOAs are excluded from the datasets. This only occurs if the MLSOA to which it belongs is disclosive and has been merged with another MLSOA. In these instances, the LLSOA is automatically disclosive and as such cannot be published. The workbooks containing these data can be found on the DECC website at: Neighbourhood Statistics and Places Database Sub-national energy consumption data for the years 2005 to 2008 at MLSOA level for both gas and electricity were incorporated onto the Neighbourhood Statistics database in early This database allows users to analyse different official statistical datasets at a local level, enabling a greater level of analytical integration. DECC plans to add the 2009 MLSOA and LLSOA data to the neighbourhood Statistics database shortly. The data can be found at: The data have also been incorporated into the Places database, hosted by the Department for Communities and Local Government, which enables users to map and chart the data for Local Authorities and MLSOAs. The Places database also includes a wide variety of socio-economic data across a range of topics, which can be used to support users in comparisons and analysis. The data can be found at: Change over Time Analysis (CoTA) To support small area data analysis DECC has made available the Change over Time Analysis tool (CoTA), which allows users to analyse consumption data at Local Authority or MLSOA level, following a 5 stage analysis strategy. The details of the release of this tool are available in this edition of Energy Trends starting on page 50. User feedback We welcome all feedback from the users of this data. If you would like to provide feedback (we are particularly keen to understand how the data are being used), please contact Anna Nikiel using the contact details below. The MLSOA, IGZ and LLSOA datasets together contain thousands of records and it is not possible for DECC to thoroughly sense check them all. Therefore, if users would like to discuss consumption in certain geographical areas, then please contact one of the team using the given contact details. Anna Nikiel William Rose Energy Consumption Statistics Energy Consumption Statistics Tel: Tel: Anna.Nikiel@decc.gsi.gov.uk Will.Rose@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

43 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland during 2009 Introduction This article describes recent work carried out by DECC in conjunction with the electricity industry in Northern Ireland and the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland (DETINI) to estimate non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland for the 26 District Councils; this level of disaggregation is similar to the Local Authority level data that DECC has published for Great Britain since These data relate to the period 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2010 and it is the first time this dataset has been released. It is important to note that these data are classified as experimental statistics and should be viewed and used with care. It should also be noted that these statistics were produced on a different basis, and from a different source, to the 2008 Northern Ireland domestic electricity consumption dataset published for the first time in the December 2010 edition of Energy Trends. The domestic data covered the 12 month period ending 31 March 2009 and were uplifted to match total annual sales data. It is intended that this information will enable central, local and regional bodies in Northern Ireland to understand and explore patterns of electricity usage in local areas and enable them to target and monitor policies more effectively. These data also supplement the existing Great Britain subnational electricity consumption estimates, although these series are not directly comparable due to differing sources and time periods. All sub-national energy consumption datasets can be found on the DECC website at: Summary results Total annual non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland in 2009 was estimated to be 4,792 Gigawatt hours (GWh). Belfast was the largest consuming district, responsible for 23 per cent of non-domestic consumption and 20 per cent of non-domestic meters. Average non-domestic electricity consumption per meter in Northern Ireland was 78,115 kilowatt hours (kwh) in 2009, compared to 75,927 kwh for Great Britain. The district with the highest average non-domestic electricity consumption per meter was Craigavon at 114,898 kwh per meter, with Moyle the lowest at 31,972 kwh per meter. Background to the non-domestic electricity market On the 1 November 2007, the Single Electricity Market (SEM) was introduced to Northern Ireland to help provide a stable, transparent and competitive energy market. This reflected the opening up of markets under EC legislation, and built upon the privatisation of the electricity supply market following the Electricity (Northern Ireland) Order In 2009, seven supply companies (NIE Energy, Energia, ESBIE, Airtricity, Bord Gais, Quinn Energy Supply Ltd and Firmus Energy Supply Ltd) operated in the non-domestic market in Northern Ireland. Methodology and coverage To produce these 2009 estimates, data were derived from NIE s Distribution Use of System (DUoS) Billing system. These data largely cover the 12 month period 1 April 2009 to 31 March 2010 and are based on billed units and relate to final consumption at the point as when it was derived. This dataset excludes electricity used by companies that generate their own electricity and consume it without it passing over the public distribution network. 41 March 2011

44 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Despite the efforts to obtain complete geographical information, there are still some addresses that do not contain sufficient information to be able to allocate them to a district Authority with any degree of accuracy. These meters, and the associated consumption, are aggregated into an unallocated row at the end of the published sheets and represent 0.1 per cent of total Northern Ireland consumption. Background to the non-domestic sector In March 2009, data from the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) estimated a total of 70,620 businesses in Northern Ireland which were either VAT registered or operating a Pay As You Earn (PAYE) scheme. In comparison, the dataset analysed in this article contains 61,347 business meters. The difference in the number of businesses can partially be attributed to businesses working out of domestic premises mainly sole traders. The IDBR highlighted Northern Ireland s dependence on the agriculture, forestry & fishing sector (23.1 per cent of businesses), the construction sector (17.3 per cent) and the retail sector (9.4 per cent) which were the dominant industrial sectors accounting for 50 per cent of total businesses. Of the total 70,620 business held on the IDBR, 88 per cent had less than 10 employees, 10 per cent with 10 to 49 employees and 2 per cent with 50 or more employees, underlining the importance of small businesses to the Northern Ireland economy. Analysis at district level Average consumption Average non-domestic consumption is a function of both the number of non-domestic sites in an area, the type of business and the volume of electricity they use. It is calculated by dividing total consumption by the number of electricity meters, thus reflecting average consumption per meter rather than per business. There are situations when a business has more than one meter. Chart 1 shows average non-domestic consumption per meter by district, in decreasing order of average consumption. March

45 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Chart 1: Average non-domestic electricity consumption per meter, , ,000 80,000 kwh per meter 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Craigavon Antrim Derry Ballymena Newtownabbey Cookstown Fermanagh Castlereagh Belfast Lisburn Dungannon Carrickfergus Coleraine North Down Larne Omagh Armagh Newry and Mourne Banbridge Strabane Down Ards Magherafelt Limavady Ballymoney Moyle In 2009, average non-domestic electric consumption per meter in Northern Ireland was 78,115 kwh; 2,188 kwh (3 per cent) higher than the Great Britain average. Each of the 26 districts has a varying mix of economic activities, with each activity having a different level of energy intensity. This was reflected in the varying average consumption figures throughout the 26 districts. In 2009, Craigavon had the highest average non-domestic consumption with 114,898 kwh per meter, whilst Moyle had the lowest average non-domestic consumption with 31,973 kwh per meter. In Craigavon the electricity intensive manufacturing sector was responsible for 1 in 5 jobs in comparison to the Northern Ireland average of 1 in 10 and 1 in 17 jobs in the district of Moyle which has a more service orientated economy. A high average non-domestic consumption tends to occur where there are a small number of relatively higher consumers which dominate the area, whilst a low level of non-domestic consumption may reflect the rural characteristics of an area. Map 1 helps provide a geographical perspective of average non-domestic consumption per meter for each district. 43 March 2011

46 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Map 1: Average non-domestic electricity consumption per meter, 2009 The electricity consumption data used in this article are generated from both half hourly (HH) meters which are primarily from larger commercial/industrial customers and non half hourly (NHH) meters which are predominately from small/medium commercial/industrial customers. In Northern Ireland in 2009, there were approximately 9,700 HH meters with average consumption of 382,400 kwh per meter, and approximately 51,500 NHH meters with an average consumption of 18,800 kwh. The HH meters were responsible for over three quarters of total consumption, but made up only a sixth of total meters (Chart 2). There are also an additional 150 meters which are classified as unmetered supplies, these meters are mainly attributed to street lighting and traffic lights. These meters are included in the Northern Ireland total and classified as unallocated in the sub-national breakdown. March

47 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Chart 2: Total consumption and total number of meters split by profile Consumption Half-hourly Non-half-hourly Meters 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total consumption Total consumption reflects the sum of consumption from the 61,347 meters. The accuracy of total consumption is reliant on receiving data from all meters. In 2009, total non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland totalled 4,792 GWh. At district level, Belfast was the largest consuming district of non-domestic electricity 1,104 GWh. In terms of non-domestic meters, Belfast comprised 20 per cent of total meters which were responsible for 23 per cent of total consumption. Derry was the second largest consuming district, responsible for 8 per cent of total non-domestic consumption and 6 per cent of non-domestic meters. Moyle was the lowest consuming district, responsible for 0.5 per cent of total Northern Ireland consumption, 22 GWh, reflecting the small population of businesses and its industrial mix. Chart 3 shows details of total non-domestic electricity consumption for each of the 26 districts. Districts are ranked in decreasing size of total non-domestic electricity consumption. The chart highlights the dominance of Belfast in comparison to the other 25 districts. Similar to average non-domestic consumption, the variation of total consumption between regions reflects the differing levels of dependence on different economic sectors and their respective level of energy intensity. Other factors that also impact on the average include installed energy efficiency measures, technology and the differing fuel mix breakdowns. 45 March 2011

48 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland Chart 3: Total non-domestic consumption by district, ,200 1, Belfast Derry Craigavon Lisburn Ballymena Fermanagh Newtownabbey Newry and Mourne Dungannon Antrim Coleraine North Down Cookstown Castlereagh Down Armagh Ards Omagh Banbridge Magherafelt Strabane Carrickfergus Larne Limavady Ballymoney Moyle GWh Analysis at UK level Table 1 shows total non-domestic consumption, total number of meters and average (mean) nondomestic electricity consumption per meter in each of the English Regions/Devolved Administration. Table 1: Total consumption and average consumption by region, 2009 Commercial and industrial consumers Sales GWh Number of MPANs (thousands) Average commercial and industrial consumption kwh North East 7, ,817 North West 19, ,478 Yorkshire and the Humber 15, ,691 East Midlands 13, ,283 West Midlands 14, ,667 East of England 15, ,929 Greater London 27, ,803 South East 23, ,434 South West 14, ,787 England 152,077 2,029 74,933 Wales 10, ,594 Scotland 15, ,053 Unallocated (GB) 2, ,850 Great Britain 180,578 2,378 75,927 Northern Ireland 4, ,115 United Kingdom 185,370 2,440 75,982 March

49 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland It should be noted that data for Great Britain is from a different source to the Northern Ireland data and covers a different time period, with NHH data covering the period from the end of January 2009 to the end of January It is also estimated that 20 per cent of the Great Britain data are based on estimates rather than actual meter readings. Total non-domestic consumption in the United Kingdom was estimated to be 185,370 GWh in England was responsible for 82 per cent of total UK non-domestic energy consumption in 2009, followed by Scotland - 8 per cent, Wales - 6 per cent and Northern Ireland with an estimated 3 per cent. Of these countries only Wales, with an average of 83,594 kwh per non-domestic meter had a higher average consumption per meter than Northern Ireland (78,115 kwh). Northern Ireland's average consumption per meter was approximately 5,000 kwh higher than Scotland, and 3,200 kwh higher than England (Chart 4). Chart 4: Average non-domestic electricity consumption, by country, ,000 90,000 83,594 80,000 73,053 74,933 75,927 78,115 75,982 Average consumption, kwh 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Wales Scotland England Great Britain Northern Ireland United Kingdom When dealing with a large dataset it is sometimes easier to draw out conclusions by summarising the data using charts. Box plots charts enable a visualisation of the distribution of a dataset to be made by incorporating measures of location (a single value) and dispersion (the variability of the dataset) into one simple diagram. Box plots use the range (the difference between the minimum and maximum values in a dataset) and the inter-quartile range (the difference between the lower quartile and upper quartile) in a dataset to measure dispersion, and the median (the value that splits the ordered dataset exactly into two) as a measure of location. Chart 5 shows a series of box plots illustrating aspects of the distribution of average non-domestic electricity consumption for each area within the United Kingdom. These have been calculated based on average (mean) consumption at local authority/district level within each area. 47 March 2011

50 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland From the chart it can be seen that the inter-quartile range of average non-domestic electricity consumption in local authorities was greatest in Wales, followed by the North East and Northern Ireland. Greater London had the smallest spread. The median (triangle) was closer to the upper quartile, rather than the lower quartiles, in the regions of the North East, East Midlands, West Midlands and Greater London indicating a negative or left skewed distribution. For Northern Ireland the median is nearer to the lower quartile indicating a positive/right skewed distribution. In a positive/right skewed distribution there is a long tail at the right end of the distribution, with the majority of the council average non-domestic consumption readings to the left of the distribution. In a positive distribution the mode is smaller than the median, which in turn is smaller than the mean. The mode (the frequently occurring value) is the highest point on the curve, whilst the median bisects the ordered data set exactly in half. Chart 5: Box plot of average non-domestic electricity consumption for local authorities within each Government Office Region/Devolved Administration This is the first release of non-domestic electricity consumption at sub-national level in Northern Ireland. DECC will continue to work with both the Northern Ireland electricity industry and the DETINI in developing these statistics. Further Northern Ireland sub-national consumption data for 2008 on road transport and residual fuels can be found on the DECC website at: Acknowledgements DECC would like to thank NIE, in particular Deborah Huey and Roisin Flynn, for their co-operation in providing these data and making it possible to produce this analysis and Anna Dedecjus in BIS for producing the map. The co-operation of Fred Frazer and his team in DETINI is also appreciated. March

51 Special feature - Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland User feedback As this is the first release of sub-national data in Northern Ireland we would be grateful for any feedback on the content of this article. Please send any comments to: Will Rose Energy Consumption Statistics Tel: Will.Rose@decc.gsi.gov.uk Table 2: Sub-national non-domestic electricity consumption statistics 2009 (Experimental Statistics) Number of meters Total consumption (kwh) Average consumption per meter (kwh) Antrim 1, ,565, ,979 Ards 2, ,869,496 46,605 Armagh 2, ,546,926 53,743 Ballymena 2, ,752, ,112 Ballymoney ,432,098 38,906 Banbridge 1,448 76,281,760 52,681 Belfast 12,191 1,104,234,685 90,578 Carrickfergus ,759,937 77,756 Castlereagh 1, ,381,820 93,732 Coleraine 2, ,117,410 70,806 Cookstown 1, ,970,360 95,978 Craigavon 2, ,120, ,898 Derry 3, ,245, ,930 Down 2, ,257,565 50,515 Dungannon 2, ,511,130 77,811 Fermanagh 2, ,763,419 95,296 Larne 1,025 58,405,626 56,981 Limavady 1,057 45,023,002 42,595 Lisburn 3, ,906,294 79,398 Magherafelt 1,623 75,607,478 46,585 Moyle ,061,316 31,973 Newry and Mourne 3, ,270,803 52,764 Newtownabbey 2, ,149,995 99,058 North Down 2, ,397,760 62,570 Omagh 1,853 99,828,160 53,874 Strabane 1,295 67,777,697 52,338 Unallocated 30 3,880, ,348 Northern Ireland 61,347 4,792,118,541 78, March 2011

52 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer Change over Time Analysis Viewer: Sub-national energy consumption Introduction This article introduces a new analytical tool for analysing sub-national energy consumption data at English Region, Local Authority and MLSOA level called the Change over Time Analysis (CoTA) viewer. This piece of software was originally designed by the Office for National Statistics to support a new strategy for analysing change over time for small areas. It was successfully launched using Worklessness data from the Department of Work and Pensions. The purpose of the CoTA viewer is to help local authorities and other regional bodies create an evidence base when developing and monitoring policies for small geographical areas. The tool has now been adapted for analysing energy consumption data. Information on changes in total consumption, number of meters, and average consumption between two years (e.g. between 2005 and 2008) can be analysed for the following energy variables at either Local Authority or MLSOA level: Ordinary domestic electricity Economy 7 electricity Industrial and commercial electricity Domestic gas Industrial and commercial gas The tool will help users to answer questions like: Has a local authority s energy consumption changed compared to others in the region? Has much change occurred within a local authority? Which MLSOAs have experienced significant change? The answer to these questions will enable a better understanding of the change in consumption over time for these statistical geographies and as a result enable users to make more informed decisions when it comes to policy making. It can also enable analysis of existing interventions in place to reduce energy use. CoTA energy is available in two formats excel and Scalable Vector Graphics (SVG) and can be downloaded from the DECC website at: DECC is unfortunately unable to offer any technical advice on the installation or use of SVG software. However, we are happy to provide advice on its use, via the contact details at the end of the article. To supplement the CoTA viewer a guidance note, based on the original guidance provided by ONS for the DWP Worklessness data, has been published on the DECC website at: March

53 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer Analysis technique The CoTA viewer was designed to complement the following 5-stage analytical strategy which was intended to provide a structure to any comparative analysis undertaken on data held on the ONS Neighbourhood Statistics website, after assessing the questions or issues to be studied. The guidance suggests a 5-stage strategy for analysing the data: 1. Select your data: Selecting the data which are most appropriate/fit for purpose, and are suitable to address the policy issue in question. 2. Understand the context of your analysis: Prepare contextual analysis by looking at the characteristics and patterns of change over time for both the region and local authority. This will provide context of what may be seen in the smaller geographical areas. 3. Split your area into groups for analysis: When looking at the data below Local Authority level, it is useful to create the two groups: intervention group and control group. 4. Understand how the groups are changing: The analysis of the differences between those groups can provide an indication of whether the taken action (such as an awareness campaign) has had the desired results. However, users should note that there may be other socio economic factors, which have impacted on energy consumption. 5. Test the significance of change for individual small areas: Finally the analysis of the significance of the differences should be carried out. A full guidance on the CoTA strategy is available on ONS website at: ailed-guidance.htm Further guidance on the sub-national data behind the method can be found on the DECC website at: 51 March 2011

54 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer Worked example - Warwick Local Authority To illustrate the potential of CoTA the following example for Warwick Local Authority has been put together using the 5 stage analytical strategy. 1. Select your data For the purpose of this example, we will be looking at domestic electricity consumption at the regional and local level, before focusing on the ordinary domestic tarrif on MLOSA level. This is to help to understand the changes occuring at the higher geographical level, before the analysis of small areas changes can be done. These data are available at local authority and MLSOA level in the tool. Domestic electricity was identified from looking at the sub-national energy consumption data between 2005 and 2008 and identifying a change in trend between 2007 and 2008 as indicated in Chart 1 and Chart 2 below. Charts 1 and 2 below, show total domestic consumption (Ordinary and Economy 7 combined) and the number of meters for both Warwick local authority and the West Midlands (the English Region that Warwick is situated within). Chart 1: Total domestic electricity consumption and number of meters in Warwick Local Authority Chart 2: Total domestic electricity consumption and number of meters in West Midlands (Left hand axis) (Right hand axis) (Left hand axis) (Right hand axis) From both charts you can identify that between 2005 and 2007, total electricity consumption remained fairly constant for each level of geography, but between 2007 and 2008 total electricity consumption fell, whilst the number of meters remained realtively constant, potentially identifying a reduction in the average consumption per meter. From the explanatory analysis between 2007/2008 the fall in domestic electricity use was identified. Following analysis aims to investigate this change. After identifying this change in trend, CoTA will now be used to further investigate the fall between 2007 and We will primarily focus on ordinary domestic consumption. March

55 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer 2. Understand the context of your analysis When dealing with a large dataset it is sometimes easier to draw out conclusions by summarising the data using charts. Box plots charts enable a visualisation of the distribution of a dataset to be made by incorporating measures of location (a single value) and dispersion (the variability of the dataset) into one simple diagram. Box plots use the range (the difference between the minimum and maximum values in a dataset) and the inter-quartile range (the difference between the lower quartile and upper quartile) in a dataset to measure dispersion, and the median (the value that splits the ordered dataset exactly into two) as a measure of location. It should be noted that CoTA excludes outliers from the plots - please refer to the guidance note for further information. Charts 3 and 4 show the distribution of change at MLSOA level between 2007 and 2008 within each English Region. Chart 3 shows that the range of change for total consumption per MLSOA in the West Midlands was smaller than in the majority of other English Regions. The median change per MLSOA was less than zero, which indicates that more than half of MLSOAs saw a decrease in consumption between 2007 and The box plot for Warwick LA shows the range of change in Warwick LA across its 15 MLSOAs. The median for Warwick LA is slightly higher than the median for the West Midlands; however it is still below zero, indicating that more than 50 per cent of Warwick MLSOAs saw a decrease. When looking at the distribution, it appears that the West Midlands distribution is negatively skewed, while Warwick s distribution is closer to a normal distribution. The opposite is the case for average consumption per meter point. The Warwick distribution appears to be negatively skewed, while West Midlands are closer to the normal distribution (Chart 4). Chart 3: Distribution of change in total energy consumption at MLSOA level: Ordinary Domestic Electricity, Chart 4: Distribution of change in average energy consumption at MLSOA level: Ordinary Domestic Electricity, March 2011

56 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer 3. Split your area into groups for analysis Map 1 below separates all the MLSOA s within Warwick into either a Higher Values Group or a Lower Values Group depending on a selected threshold for total ordinary domestic electricity consumption. In this example any MLSOAs with total ordinary domestic electricity consumption higher than GWh belong to the high consuming group (shaded red). You are also able to select specific MLSOAs to test whether there was a significant change between policy intervention areas and a control area within a Local Authority. However, it should be used with caution as there may be other factors, not captured by this tool, which affect energy consumption. A test statistic testing the significance of the difference between the two groups is evaluated. In this example there is no significant difference between the lower and higher values groups. Map 1: Warwick Split into groups by Ordinary Domestic Electricity Consumption March

57 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer 4. Understand how the groups are changing Map 2 (right) highlights the areas where total ordinary electricity consumption has changed between 2007 and 2008 at MLSOA level within Warwick Local Authority. Map 2: Distribution of change in energy consumption within MLSOA, Ordinary Domestic Electricity, The data indicates a divide between East and West, with MLSOAs on the west side of the local authority having seen a decrease (brown) between 2007 and 2008, whilst the LLSOA s on the East side have increased (blue). Map 3 shows the change in number of meter points between 2007 and 2008 per MLSOA. The number of meters has increased in all but 2 MLSOAs. As a result of changes in electricity consumption and number of meters, the average consumption per meter has decreased in 3 MLSOAs and increased in one MLSOA. 11 MLSOAs saw no significant decrease Map 4. Map 3: Distribution of change in number of meters within MLSOA, Ordinary Domestic Electricity, Map 4: Distribution of change in energy consumption per meter within MLSOA: Ordinary Domestic Electricity, March 2011

58 Special feature Change over Time Analysis Viewer 5. Test the significance of change for individual small areas The previous section focused on actual changes between 2007 and 2008, whilst this section focuses on the statistical significance of those changes i.e. whether or not the change is unlikely to have occurred by chance. This can be calculated in CoTA Map 5, right, classifies whether or not the observed change in total electricity seen within a MLSOA between 2007 and 2008, was a significant decrease, not a significant change or a significant increase. Map 5: Distribution of significant change in total Ordinary Domestic Electricity consumption The areas shaded in dark brown saw a highly significant decrease in ordinary domestic electricity consumption. The areas coloured light brown saw a significant decrease, while the areas which were left blank did not see a significant change. None of the MLSOA saw significant or highly significant increase in consumption. Map 6 shows the level of significance in the change of number of meter points for each MLSOA between 2007 and It is important to note that the MLSOA which saw a highly significant decrease in consumption also saw a significant decrease in number of meters, which may explain the change in consumption. It should also be noted that the two areas which saw a highly significant increase in number of meter points, did not see a corresponding significant change in consumption. Map 6: Distribution of siginificant change in number of Ordinary Domestic Electricity meters Map 7: Distribution of siginificant change in average Ordinary Domestic Electricity consumption per meter Map 7 shows that most of the MLSOAs saw a highly significant or significant decrease in average consumption per meter point. None of the MLSOAs saw a significant increase. User feedback We welcome all feedback from the users of this data and this tool. If you would like to provide feedback please contact Anna Nikiel using the contact details below. Anna Nikiel William Rose Energy Consumption Statistics Energy Consumption Statistics Tel: Tel: Anna.Nikiel@decc.gsi.gov.uk Will.Rose@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

59 Special feature European Energy efficiency trends European Energy Efficiency trends Household energy consumption Introduction This article provides an overview of the UK s energy efficiency performance compared with other EU countries 1, drawing on energy efficiency indicators from the ODYSSEE database. The full ODYSSEE database can be found on their website, at: The main objectives of the ODYSSEE database include: Monitoring energy efficiency progress (and CO 2 reduction). Comparing and evaluating the differences between countries in their relative energy efficiency performances and to identify potentials for improvement. Understanding energy demand trends. Measuring the contribution of innovative energy efficiency and renewable technologies to the Lisbon targets to make Europe more competitive. This article focuses on the household energy efficiency of the UK in 2008 and changes since 2000, making comparisons with other EU member countries. Some figures for the UK included in this article have been revised since data were submitted to ODYSSEE in September 2010 and will be included shortly in the database. Data analysis The indicator used in this article to compare the household energy efficiency levels of the UK with the other EU members is energy consumption per permanently occupied dwelling, expressed in kwh/dw. The indicator was calculated from official statistical sources, as a direct ratio between household energy consumption and the number of dwellings. The data are presented for all EU27 member countries. Adjustments have been made to scale the results to the average EU climate. This enables better comparisons to be made between countries. When analysing the energy consumption per dwelling indicator, it is important to note that this indicator includes all energy consumed by the household and not just energy used for heating but excluding energy used for transport. However, it does not only reflect energy efficiency changes but can be affected by a number of behavioural and technical factors, such as the increase in household ownership of appliances, the intensity of their use and switching between fuels with different end-use efficiencies. Chart 1 presents the energy consumption per dwelling in 2008 for all EU27 countries 2. The countries were ranked in order of increasing energy consumption per dwelling. The UK was in 21 st position, consuming more energy per dwelling than France and Germany but less than Denmark and Sweden. The average consumption per dwelling in the United Kingdom was 20,721 kwh/dw, 16 per cent higher than the EU27 average of 17,793 kwh/dw. The lowest consumption was 6,629 kwh/dw observed in Malta, while the greatest energy use was reported in Luxembourg at 44,078 kwh/dw, almost 2.5 times the EU27 average. 1 The ODYSSEE data also contains data for Croatia and Norway but this article only compares data for the 27 EU Member States data for Estonia and Lithuania were not available, so the 2007 figures were used. 57 March 2011

60 Special feature European Energy efficiency trends Chart 1. Household energy efficiency: Consumption per dwelling 2008 Not surprisingly chart 1 shows that many of the countries with low consumption per dwelling are those with warmer climates but there are other key factors. ODYSSEE also produces indicators that are scaled to the average European climate which enables fairer comparisons to be made across EU Member States. Chart 2 below shows the differences between normal climate and average EU climate estimates of household energy consumption per dwelling in The figures indicate the correction factor made to the raw consumption per dwelling figures reported by individual countries. The EU27 figure is by definition zero. This calculation takes into account only the energy use for space heating. Chart 2. Difference in household energy consumption per dwelling between normal climate and average EU average climate by country for space heating March

61 Special feature European Energy efficiency trends Excluding Cyprus and Malta where climate corrected figures are not available 3, 19 of the remaining 25 countries have a negative impact from the climatic correction. These are the countries where heating requirements are higher due to lower winter external temperatures. The UK has the 12 th largest climate correction reduction of -1,239 kwh/dw (6 per cent). Chart 3 presents the total energy consumption per dwelling in 2008 on a climate corrected basis for all EU27 countries 4, excluding Cyprus and Malta. Chart 3. adjusted Household energy efficiency: Consumption per dwelling climate The order of the countries in chart 3 is highly correlated with the GDP per capita of the country 5. The less affluent countries have lower household energy consumption on a climate corrected basis. Out of the 11 countries with lowest consumption per household, 10 of these have GDP per capita in 2008 below 20,000. The EU27 average was over 25,000. On a climate corrected basis the UK ranking improves by one position to 18 th position after recognising that Cyprus and Malta are excluded from the chart. This remains higher than the EU27 average. In addition, when using this measure, the UK has lower consumption per dwelling than France and Greece. It should be noted that Sweden has lower consumption per dwelling than the UK on a climate corrected basis. Chart 4 shows the percentage change in household energy consumption per dwelling between 2000 and A decrease in energy consumption per dwelling implies an increase in energy efficiency. These figures are adjusted for climate changes within the country and against the EU27 average. 3 Cyprus and Malta do not have climate adjusted data as their heating demand is so small the adjustment is not meaningful. 4 Data for Estonia and Lithuania were not available, so the 2007 figures were used March 2011

62 Special feature European Energy efficiency trends Chart 4 6. Changes in household energy consumption per dwelling between 2000 and 2008 (EU average adjusted) The data suggest that the greatest energy efficiency improvements were made in Slovakia, where the energy consumption per dwelling decreased by 21 per cent (3,605 kwh/dw). The overall UK energy efficiency in the household sector reduced by 4 per cent since 2000 levels. The EU27 average decreased by 6 per cent over the same period. The energy intensity was unchanged in Spain and increased in seven countries. Of these, four are countries who have joined the EU since The greatest increase of 3,256 kwh/dw (14 per cent) was observed in Greece. Conclusion On a climate corrected basis the UK is a higher consumer of energy per dwelling than the EU27 average with two-thirds of countries having lower consumption per household in Since 2000 the UK has reduced energy consumption per dwelling by 4 per cent which places it in the top half of EU27 Member States but below neighbouring countries including France, Netherlands and Sweden where consumption reduced by at least 10 per cent over that period. Anna Nikiel Stephen Oxley Energy Statistics Energy Statistics Tel: Tel: Anna.Nikiel@decc.gsi.gov.uk Stephen.Oxley@decc.gsi.gov.uk 6 Data for Estonia and Lithuania were not available, so have been excluded. Cyprus and Malta are included by using non climate adjusted data. March

63 Special feature Sub-regional fuel poverty data Sub-regional fuel poverty data for England, 2008 Introduction In 2009, DECC published estimated levels of fuel poverty at geographies below Government Office Region for This was the first time since 2003 that such data had been published. In March 2010, DECC carried out a consultation with users to get a fuller understanding of how this data was used, and where priorities lay for users. The results of this consultation were published on the DECC website at: A number of additional features were requested by users, some of which were possible within DECC resource constraints, and some which could only be considered in the longer term. The consultation showed a clear user demand for annual, timely figures, with publication as early as possible after the annual headline data a key requirement. A further consideration was the refocus of Government resources, and in particular the position of National Indicators. National Indicator 187 (NI187) attempted to proxy fuel poverty amongst households receiving benefits with each local authority by estimating the energy efficiency of the homes benefit recipients lived in. NI187 placed a significant burden on local authorities, with the data being collected via a detailed survey of the dwelling. This national indicator has since been dropped as part of the Government commitment to reduce burden on local authorities and the sub-regional fuel poverty data by DECC has formed a natural replacement, going beyond the NI187 remit. In late 2010, DECC commissioned BRE to produce sub-regional modelling for 2008 data and this data has now been published on the DECC website. Background The 2008 fuel poverty national statistics were published in October Headline levels of fuel poverty are calculated from the English Housing Survey (EHS) 1, an annual survey of around 8,000 dwellings. To allow for robust outputs, two consecutive years of EHS data are merged when producing the statistics, producing a combined year dataset of around 16,000 households. Given the survey sample size, fuel poverty levels at Government Office Region are produced alongside the headline data. However, the EHS is not designed to be robust at low levels of geography such as local authority or Parliamentary Constituency level due to the small sample size that would be available at such levels, therefore it is not possible to estimate fuel poverty directly at these levels from the survey. Therefore, to enable fuel poverty at low levels of geography to be estimated, other data sources, robust at such low levels, need to be considered and statistical models built that can link key factors from each source. The main source of this data was the 2001 census, which is available as low as at census output areas (COA) 2. By identifying the main factors contributing to fuel poverty in the national fuel poverty dataset, it is possible to link these to correlated factors from other data sources. For example, low income is well recognised to be a driver of fuel poverty. Detailed information on income is not available from the census, but factors highly correlated with it are. For example, the number of people in full employment in a small area can be gained from the census, and is also available from the EHS. Therefore, employment levels can be used as a link between the two sources to identify (approximately) areas of low income. The most influential factors determining fuel poverty were derived from the EHS using a regression model. This regression model relates the dependent variable (fuel poverty) to the independent variables (factors that cause fuel poverty) using EHS data in the first instance in this case, we 1 Produced by the Department of Communities and Local Government 2 Typically, COAs contain around 100 dwellings 61 March 2011

64 Special feature Sub-regional fuel poverty data have values for both the dependent and independent variables. The same model can then be used to predict the dependent variable from data sources that contain only the independent variables. Therefore, although information on incomes is available in the EHS and not the census, we could use a set of related variables from the EHS that also exist in the census to predict income in the census (although the primary concern of the modelling is fuel poverty and not incomes of course). Different regression models were considered for the private and social housing stock because the patterns of fuel poverty were different between the two. However, data are not published at this level as it is not sufficiently robust. The diagram below shows a selection of common factors from the EHS and the census that are highly correlated with one (or more) of the three main drivers of fuel poverty, low income, poor energy efficiency and high fuel requirement, and therefore are used to model fuel poverty in the larger dataset. Some of these variables are explained in further detail below. Life style types: This provides an indication of the economic status of the households which in turn provides an indication of income (and ability to heat the home). Dwelling Age: This provides an indication of the likely energy efficiency of the dwelling. For example, older dwellings may be more likely to have solid walls or have single glazed windows. Region: This indicates which Government Office Region an area is in. Regional temperature differences result in different requirements for fuel. Incomes also vary regionally. Area Classification: This indicates whether an area is rural or urban. Many dwellings in rural locations are likely to be off the gas network and therefore more likely to use a more expensive heating fuel. Full time employees: Again, an area with a high proportion of full time employees is more likely to have higher incomes. No qualifications: Households with no qualifications are likely to be on lower salaries and therefore have lower incomes. Results The models output predicted levels of fuel poverty (as a percentage of households) in each area and these were then adjusted to ensure they were consistent with the national and regional fuel poverty levels already published. This is an important consideration, to ensure transparency and comparability with the national data. The social and private figures were combined to produce a total figure for each local area. Household numbers were then assigned to each local area and the final results aggregated into Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA), Parliamentary Constituencies, Local Authorities (and Former Local Authority) and County before publication. March

65 Special feature Sub-regional fuel poverty data The map below shows a national picture of fuel poverty in 2008 at local authority level. Figure 1 map of estimated level of fuel poverty in England by local authority. Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2011 The map gives a broad indication of the spread of fuel poverty both within regions and nationally. As noted, the levels of fuel poverty in each region are fixed to ensure they match already published national and regional totals calculated from the main dataset. As a result of this, the fuel poverty percentages of adjacent local authorities sitting in different Government Office regions (the socalled cliff edge effect ) can show large differences and this should be considered when comparing the rate of fuel poverty in such local authorities. The map highlights some interesting results, for example in the South West, fuel poverty is generally higher the further West you travel this is in part due to lower incomes in these areas, but also likely to be caused by a greater reliance on non metered fuels (such as heating oil) and less energy efficient homes. When considering and comparing the fuel poverty percentages in each local area, it is important that users acknowledge all results are approximate based on statistical modelling and absolute differences between local areas should be interpreted with that in mind. Similarly, data used to estimate the number of households (and therefore combined with the fuel poverty percentage rates 63 March 2011

66 Special feature Sub-regional fuel poverty data to provide the number of fuel poor households) at low levels of geography are approximate, based on data collected for council tax purposes, and users should bear this in mind when using the household level data. The lowest (and most approximate) level of results possible is at census output area (of which there are around 160,000 in England). This data is designed for experienced users as it is based on clusters of around 100 households. DECC anticipate this data will be available on request from the end of March DECC is responsible for measuring fuel poverty in England and the responsibility for other countries of the UK falls to the devolved Government office. Scotland and Northern Ireland both currently published estimates of fuel poverty at local authority level. For more information, see: and statistical_annex.pdf Wales publish sub-regional data in their Fuel Poverty Statistics document: wales.gov.uk/docs/caecd/research/101122fuelpovertystatisticsen.pdf Future calculations The consultation with users of local area data showed a strong need for updates to the subregional fuel poverty modelling as frequently as possible. DECC are committed to meeting this need while working within ever more prioritised resources. Plans for future publications will develop in the coming months and DECC will update the website with future plans as they are finalised. Damon Wingfield Fuel Poverty statistics Tel: Damon.Wingfield@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

67 Introduction Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills Estimates of domestic dual fuel energy bills in 2010 The amount of money a household spends on their domestic gas and electricity bills is influenced by a number of factors, e.g. payment type, consumption level and fuel supplier. One specific difference is the varying discounts offered to customers who receive both their gas and electricity from the same company on a dual fuel basis and this analysis explores the effects of this on the average domestic fuel bill. For the purposes of this analysis, the following definition of a dual fuel tariff has been used: An energy deal such that both electricity and gas are supplied by a single company, and a discount is given to the consumer as a result of this. Companies who supply a customer with both gas and electricity, but do not offer a discount for this, have been treated as non dual fuel for the purposes of this analysis. Dual fuel bills represented in this analysis have been picked out of the wider dataset used to produce average bills in Quarterly Energy Prices. Background DECC s main publication presenting domestic energy prices data is Quarterly Energy Prices (QEP), a National Statistics publication. QEP is available on the DECC website at: The tables published within QEP currently present annual domestic gas and electricity bills and customer number information with various splits by geographical region, home supplier/non-home supplier and payment type (standard credit, direct debit and prepayment). Electricity bills are also split by standard and Economy 7 tariffs. In QEP, bills are presented as an average across all tariffs, with no breakdown for dual fuel bills. Data on gas and electricity tariffs are received directly from all of the main energy companies that supply electricity and gas across the UK. These are obtained via a quarterly survey known as the Domestic Fuel Inquiry (DFI) and are used to estimate the average annual gas and electricity bills and quarterly customer number information as presented in QEP. The survey captures at least 98% of all domestic users in the United Kingdom and all tariff types, including green, social and fixed tariffs, are captured in the survey response. DECC calculates bills as an average of prices (weighted by customer number) over the whole year and standard consumption estimates are assumed: 3,300 kwh for standard electricity; 6,600 kwh for Economy 7 electricity (of which 3,000 kwh are assumed to be daytime consumption and 3,600 kwh night consumption); and 18,000 kwh for gas. From the March 2011 edition of QEP there has been a change of methodology in the quarterly consumption weighting of domestic energy bills. This has been applied in this analysis and further information can be found in the methodology note at : Economy 7 electricity tariffs have a separate unit cost for night consumption and daytime consumption and are designed for use with night storage heaters. By contrast, standard electricity tariffs have no distinction in price between night and day. Throughout the analysis presented in this article, electricity data refers to standard electricity only, as gas consumption is likely to be significantly different from 18,000 kwh if overnight storage heaters (with an Economy 7 tariff) are being used. This would potentially make the gas consumption assumption invalid. 65 March 2011

68 Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills Dual Fuel Bill Methodology For the purposes of this analysis, two types of tariffs were identified: dual fuel and non dual fuel. Dual fuel bills were identified using the tariff name as given by energy suppliers in the Domestic Fuel Inquiry (DFI). Those tariffs with the word dual fuel (or some similar variant) in their name were given a marker of 1 and the rest given a marker of 0. Gas and electricity bills for each tariff were calculated through the same methodology as the average bill estimates available in QEP. For further information on this methodology, please refer to the domestic prices methodology note at: Combined bills were calculated for 2010 only, whereas customer number information was calculated for both 2009 and Tariff name information in earlier years was insufficient to distinguish dual fuel bills from non dual fuel bills. In order to calculate the average non dual fuel bill, the average gas and average electricity bill were estimated separately using only those tariffs (across all companies) that had 0 in the dual fuel identifier. The combined fuel bill was then calculated by adding the average gas bill and the average electricity bill together. Calculating the average dual fuel bill for each fuel supplier was more complicated as they had to be constructed according to the discount structure of each of the companies. For example, if the annual discount was only applied to the gas bill, only dual fuel identified bill were used to calculate the average gas bill, while all electricity bills from the company were used to calculate the average electricity bill. A similar approach was used when the discount was applied to the electricity bill. Again, the combined bill was calculated by adding together the average gas bill and average electricity bill. Once these combined fuels bills had been created for each company, a weighted average dual fuel bill was calculated across all companies. These weights were created by dividing the number of dual fuel customers from a particular company by the total number of dual fuel customers, given a region and payment type. Users of this data should be aware that a number of assumptions have been applied in order to undertake the analysis, and revisions to figures may occur if necessary. In those cases where the dual fuel discount was only applied on one side of the energy bill (e.g. the gas bill), it has been assumed that there will be an equal number of dual fuel customers on the other fuel type, for the same company. March

69 Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills The following tables show an example of different dual fuel discount structures and how they were applied to produce the average combined bill for each company. Example of discount structures: Company A Company B Company C Dual Fuel Discount Offers an annual discount on gas bill only Offers an annual discount on electricity bill only Offers an x% reduction on unit prices (for both gas and elec) Calculation of combined domestic dual fuel energy bills: Gas Bill Company A B C GasA(DF=1)+ A ElecA(DF=0) Electricity Bill B C GasB(DF=0)+ ElecB(DF=1) Where: Gas'x' indicates the average gas bill from company 'x' Elec'y' indicates the average elec bill from company 'y' GasC(DF=1)+ ElecC(DF=1) To summarise, the average dual fuel bill across companies is an average (weighted by customer number) of company specific dual fuel bills (highlighted in grey). The average non dual fuel bill across companies is an average (weighted by customer number) of all bills with a dual fuel identifier of 0. Regional analysis To give a further level of analysis, combined gas and electricity bills were also created at a regional level. In the United Kingdom, gas supply regions are split into 13 Local Distribution Zones (LDZ), whereas electricity supply regions are split into 15 Public Electricity Supply (PES) zones. These are the regions that energy companies supply DECC tariff information for in the DFI. Unfortunately LDZ and PES regions do not exactly match. Therefore, to assist this regional analysis, some regions had to be combined to enable calculation of regional average bills. These estimated combinations were created using information from DFI data and geographical sources and are shown in grey in the table below. Users should note that these region combinations are not exact: DF bill region LDZ (Gas) Region PES (Electricity) region East Midlands East Midlands(EM) East Midlands Eastern Eastern (EA) Eastern London North Thames (NT) London North Northern (NO) + North Eastern (NE) North East (Northern) + Yorkshire North West North Western (NW) North West (Norweb) Scotland Scotland (SC) Northern Scotland (Scottish Hydro) + Southern Scotland (Scottish Power) South East South Eastern (SE) South East (Seeboard) South West South Western (SW) South West (SWEB) Southern Southern (SO) Southern Wales Wales (WN +WS) South Wales (Swalec) + Merseyside and North Wales (Manweb) West Midlands West Midlands (WM) West Midlands (Midlands) 67 March 2011

70 Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills 1 2 Map 1: LDZ (Gas) Regions: Map 2: PES (Electricity) Regions: Source: XO Serve 1 Source: Energylinx 2 Northern Ireland was not included as gas is not yet widely available. The results: Average dual fuel and non dual fuel bills DECC currently publishes annual average domestic gas and electricity bills for Great Britain and the UK. Latest estimates for 2010 domestic gas and standard electricity bills, are available on the DECC website at: Annual bills show what consumers would have paid on average throughout the year in Great Britain. They can be used to track price movements over time, but provide no information on relative average bills for dual fuel and non dual fuel customers. Using the methodology described, Table 1 shows regional averages of dual fuel and non dual fuel bills. Table 1: Average dual fuel and non dual fuel bills in 2010 (pounds) Standard Credit Direct Debit Prepayment DF Bill Non DF Bill DF Bill Non DF Bill DF Bill Non DF Bill East Midlands 1,080 1,117 1,003 1,048 1,112 1,122 Eastern 1,085 1,122 1,011 1,055 1,110 1,122 North 1,085 1,135 1,003 1,041 1,108 1,120 London 1,109 1,137 1,030 1,072 1,130 1,137 North West 1,087 1,121 1,007 1,042 1,105 1,120 Scotland 1,092 1,156 1,017 1,076 1,126 1,146 South East 1,096 1,126 1,014 1,061 1,108 1,125 South West 1,112 1,146 1,032 1,078 1,128 1,145 Southern 1,111 1,143 1,026 1,078 1,134 1,140 Wales 1,101 1,159 1,029 1,085 1,123 1,145 West Midlands 1,088 1,135 1,012 1,054 1,132 1,133 Great Britain 1,094 1,137 1,016 1,064 1,119 1,135 1 Available at 2 Available at: March

71 Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills An average dual fuel bill in 2010 in Great Britain was 1,094 for standard credit, 1,016 for direct debit and 1,119 for prepayment customers. An average non dual fuel bill in 2010 was 1,137 for standard credit, 1,064 for direct debit and 1,135 for prepayment customers. Currently, only three companies from the big six offer a dual fuel discount to prepayment customers. Therefore, the dual fuel bills represented here are based on a smaller set of companies and variations in price may reflect this. Differences between dual fuel and non dual fuel bills Average dual fuel savings were calculated as the difference between the average dual fuel bill and the average non dual fuel bill, given a region and payment type. Prepayment savings were not analysed, due to the caveat mentioned. Chart 1: Average dual fuel savings in Credit Direct Debit Average Saving ( s) Scotland Wales Southern South East South West East Eastern West London North North Midlands Midlands West GB Region In 2010, the average saving across all regions on a dual fuel bill was 43 for standard credit customers and 48 for Direct Debit customers. In 2010, for standard credit customers, the largest average dual fuel saving was in Scotland at 63, while the lowest average saving was in the London region at 28. For Direct Debit customers, the largest average dual fuel saving was in Scotland at 59, while the lowest average saving was in the North West region at 34. For all regions and payment types, average dual fuel bills were less than average non dual fuel bills in In 2010, a consumer could have saved 121 by switching from the average non dual fuel standard credit deal to the average dual fuel direct debit deal. Proportion of customers on dual fuel deals DECC currently publishes (in QEP) the percentage of gas and electricity customers on each payment method, across Great Britain and the UK, on a quarterly basis. Tables 2 and 3 show the breakdown of payment types for gas and electricity, for 2009 and March 2011

72 Special feature Domestic dual fuel energy bills Table 2: Variation of payment method for gas, Great Britain Standard Credit Direct Debit Pre-Payment % 52% 12% % 54% 12% Table 3: Variation of payment method for standard electricity, Great Britain Standard Credit Direct Debit Pre-Payment % 50% 14% % 52% 15% In 2009, there were around 11.6 million dual fuel customers, representing about 54% of both gas and standard electricity customers. In 2010, there were around 11.9 million dual fuel customers, representing about 55% of gas customers and 54% of standard electricity customers. The proportion of gas and standard electricity customers on a dual fuel deal, split by payment method, are shown in Tables 4 and 5. Table 4: Proportion of gas customers on a dual fuel deal, Great Britain Standard Credit Direct Debit Prepayment Total % 59% 57% 54% % 60% 60% 55% Table 5: Proportion of standard electricity customers on a dual fuel deal, Great Britain Standard Credit Direct Debit Prepayment Total % 60% 49% 54% % 60% 51% 54% User feedback Please send any comments or queries regarding this analysis to James Taylor or Laura Williams using the contact details below. We welcome all feedback. James Taylor Energy Prices Tel: James.Taylor@decc.gsi.gov.uk Laura Williams Energy Prices Tel: Laura.Williams@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

73 Special feature UKCS Capital Expenditure UKCS Capital Expenditure Survey 2010 A survey of activity relating to oil and gas fields and associated infrastructure on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) was conducted in autumn The annual joint DECC Oil & Gas UK survey was conducted by Oil & Gas UK who have collated the data and provided it to DECC. The survey covered operators' intentions to invest in UKCS oil and gas production. It also collected information on projected operating and decommissioning costs and on oil and gas production. The survey excluded exploration and appraisal activity. This note is restricted to development capital expenditure in the period up to Summary of results The survey indicates total development capital expenditure (i.e. excluding expenditure on exploration, appraisal and decommissioning) relating to existing fields and significant discoveries of just over 6 billion in The reported survey data suggest that (in 2010 prices) expenditure might rise to 10 billion or more in 2011 and 2012 but great uncertainty applies to these figures and, based on recent experience, they seem unlikely to be reached in practice, with 9 billion a more reasonable central estimate for both years. After 2013, the survey indicates a sustained high level of development capital expenditure but such projections are inevitably very uncertain. It is extremely unlikely that all of the possible projects will go ahead as reported, at least on the timeframe indicated, but against that the survey excludes activity relating to new and some recent discoveries and extends beyond the time horizon for planning many incremental projects. Background Operators were asked to report their investment intentions for all oil and gas field developments and projects where development data were available. They placed each field or project in one of the following categories: Sanctioned fields - fields, including sanctioned incremental investments, which are in production or under development assuming minimum ongoing investment (e.g. mandatory environmental or safety projects, etc.) 'Probable' incremental projects - projects which are not yet sanctioned but with at least 50% probability of being technically and economically developable Probable new field developments - new fields which are not yet sanctioned but with at least 50% probability of being technically and economically producible 'Possible' incremental projects - projects which are not yet sanctioned with a significant but less than 50% probability of being technically and economically developable Possible new field developments - new fields which are not yet sanctioned with a significant but less than 50% probability of being technically and economically producible Operators were asked to include any developments which have the potential to become commercial at some time in the next 10 years. They were asked to indicate the probability of each new field or project going ahead and to use the central (most likely) case in the event that there was uncertainty about the timing of expenditure. Operators' estimates (of costs and production) were meant to be consistent with commercial development. Capital expenditure plans by category The results of the survey are summarised in Table 1 and illustrated in Chart 1. Expenditure has been included on the scale and at the time reported by the operators though it is likely that at least some of the less-certain projects will slip or even not materialise. The tables also include weighted totals which reflect the probabilities assigned by the operators. For total development capital expenditure (Table 1) the resultant profile is close to, but generally below, that for sanctioned fields plus probable projects. 71 March 2011

74 Special feature UKCS Capital Expenditure Table 1: Total development capital expenditure plans by category Total for ( billion, 2010 prices) Sanctioned Fields Probable Incremental Projects Probable New Fields Sanctioned plus Probable Possible Incremental Projects Possible New Fields Sanctioned plus Probable plus Possible Weighted Total Chart 1: Total development capital expenditure plans by category billion (2010 prices) Sanctioned Fields Probable Incremental Projects Probable New Fields Possible Incremental Projects Possible New Fields Compared with the intentions over the five years following the survey conducted in 2009, the 2010 survey indicates a large increase in sanctioned expenditure both absolutely and as a proportion of the total, reflecting the approval of several major projects in the last year, while expenditure on probable projects has fallen as a proportion of the total. Mike Earp Energy Markets & Infrastructure Tel: Mike.Earp@decc.gsi.gov.uk March

75 1 TOTAL ENERGY TABLE 1.1. Indigenous production of primary fuels Million tonnes of oil equivalent Primary electricity Wind and natural flow Total Coal 1,2 Petroleum 3 Natural gas 4 Nuclear hydro p 157.2r r 73 March 2011 Per cent change Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter r Quarter 4 p Per cent change Includes solid renewable sources (wood, straw and waste), a small amount of renewable primary heat sources (solar, geothermal etc), liquid biofuels and an estimate for slurry. 2. Calculated on statistical months; data for 2008 is 4 days longer than the standard SRP for January to December This is to enable a smooth transition to publishing data on a calendar month basis from January 2009 rather than 4 and 5 week statistical reporting periods (SRPs). 3. Crude oil, offshore and land, plus condensates and petroleum gases derived at onshore treatment plants. 4. Includes colliery methane, landfill gas and sewage gas. Excludes gas flared or re-injected. 5. Includes generation by solar PV. 6. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier.

76 March TOTAL ENERGY TABLE 1.2 Inland energy consumption: primary fuel input basis Million tonnes of oil equivalent Primary electricity Primary electricity Natural Wind and natural Net Natural Wind and natural Net Total Coal 1 Petroleum 2 gas 3 Nuclear flow hydro 4 imports Total Coal Petroleum gas Nuclear flow hydro imports Unadjusted 5 Seasonally adjusted and temperature corrected 6,7,9 (annualised rates) p 217.3r 36.8r 70.3r 95.1r r r 36.1r 69.3r 90.8r r 0.23 Per cent change Quarter Quarter r 69.2r r Quarter r 91.8r r 0.49 Quarter r 7.6r 17.8r 15.3r r r 37.4r 70.1r 87.6r r 0.95 Quarter4 p r 17.6r 28.1r r 37.3r 68.5r 88.4r Per cent change (-) (-) 1. Includes solid renewable sources (wood, straw and waste), a small amount of renewable primary heat sources (solar, geothermal, etc.), liquid biofuels and net foreign trade and stock changes in other solid fuels. 2. Inland deliveries for energy use, plus refinery fuel and losses, minus the differences between deliveries and actual consumption at power stations. 3. Includes gas used during production, colliery methane, landfill gas and sewage gas. Excludes gas flared or re-injected and non-energy use of gas. 4. Includes generation by solar PV. Excludes generation from pumped storage stations. 5. Not seasonally adjusted or temperature corrected. 6. Coal, petroleum and natural gas are temperature corrected. 7. For details of temperature correction see the Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2010: long-term trends; Seasonal and temperature adjustment factors were reassessed in July Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 9. National Grid have changed their methodology for calculating the temperature correction of gas. More information on the methodology used by National Grid can be found at

77 75 1 TOTAL ENERGY Table 1.3a Supply and use of fuels per cent change Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter p p SUPPLY Indigenous production 166,896r 157, ,944 45,365r 43,907 36,043r 41,582 42,613r 39,990r 35,806r 39, Imports 149, , ,804 41,337 33,979 34,453 39,856 41,630r 37,187r 33,654r 43, Exports -90,184-90, ,468-22,663-24,451-20,119-22,950-22,149r -24,160r -21,192r -23, Marine bunkers -2,621-2, Stock change 2-3,704 +6, ,982-3,645-3,491 +1,450 +5,434r -2,506r -1,302r +4,755 Primary supply 220,013r 226, ,895 65,466r 49,078r 46,222 59,248r 67,032r 49,946r 46,336r 63, Statistical difference 3-51r r +13r -141r +77r +103r -97r +83r -135 Primary demand 220,064r 226, ,161 65,465r 49,065r 46,363r 59,171r 66,929r 50,043r 46,253r 63, Transfers r -9r -56r -32 TRANSFORMATION -49,676r -49, ,004-14,270r -11,214r -10,981r -13,211r -14,171r -11,301r -10,625r -13, Electricity generation -46,153r -46, ,016-13,242-10,523-10,250-12,139r -13,177r -10,405r -9,987r -12, Heat generation -1,090r -1, r -240r -217r -307r -327r -241r -217r Petroleum refineries r -127r 61r 156 (-) Coke manufacture r -36r -39r -81 (+) Blast furnaces -2,024-1, r r Patent fuel manufacture (-) r 10 (+) Energy industry use 13,766r 13, ,678 3,689r 3,430r 3,175r 3,472r 3,521r 3,476r 3,283r 3, Losses 3,790 4, , ,240r 1,061r 914r 1, FINAL CONSUMPTION 152,771r 158, ,556 46,408r 33,538r 31,344r 41,480r 47,948r 34,199r 31,379r 45, Iron & steel 1,200 1, r 364r 334r Other industries 25,586r 26, ,936 7,118r 5,350r 5,616r 7,503r 7,683r 5,506r 5,551r 7, Transport 56,517r 56, ,227 14,095r 14,177r 14,741r 13,504r 13,684r 13,928r 14,824r 13, Domestic 43,213r 47, ,825 17,067r 7,546r 5,244r 13,356r 18,262r 8,027r 5,240r 16, Other Final Users 17,389r 17, ,982 5,603 3,805r 3,250r 4,731r 5,888r 3,832r 3,163r 4, Non energy use 8,866 8, ,241 2,235 2,378 2,202 2,051 2,080r 2,542r 2,266r 2, per cent change 1 DEPENDENCY 5 Net import dependency 26.7% 28.3% 27.2% 28.3% 19.1% 30.6% 28.2% 28.8% 25.8% 26.5% 31.1% Fossil fuel dependency 89.2% 90.0% 91.7% 90.9% 87.2% 87.1% 90.4% 91.0% 89.5% 88.4% 90.5% March Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 2. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 3. Primary supply minus primary demand. 4. Annual transfers should ideally be zero. For manufactured fuels differences occur in the rescreening of coke to breeze. For oil and petroleum products differences arise due to small variations in the calorific values used. 5. See article in the December 2010 edition of Energy Trends at:

78 March TOTAL ENERGY Table 1.3b Supply and use of fuels 2009 Quarter Quarter 4 p Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent 76 Coal Manufactured fuels 4 Primary oil Petroleum Products Natural gas 5 Rennewables & waste 6 Primary electricity SUPPLY Indigenous production 2,646-18,647-15,047 1,286 3, ,954-17,087-13,715 1,309 4, Imports 5, ,712 6,262 13, , ,132 6,558 16, Exports ,869-7,084-2, ,915-7,611-3, Marine bunkers Stock change , , Primary supply 8, ,707-1,315 26,222 1,625 3, , ,779-1,337 27,764 1,648 4, Statistical difference Primary demand 8, ,546-1,225 26,162 1,625 3, , ,821-1,262 27,817 1,648 4, Transfers TRANSFORMATION -7, ,823 19,179-9,163-1,046-3,590 8, , ,258 20,042-8,073-1,029-3,759 8, Electricity generation -6, ,558-1,046-3,590 8, , ,468-1,029-3,759 8,481 - Heat generation Petroleum refineries ,823 19, ,258 20, Coke manufacture Blast furnaces Patent fuel manufacture Energy industry use ,197 1, ,282 1, Losses FINAL CONSUMPTION ,480 15, , ,050 17, , Iron & steel Other industries ,349 3, , ,473 3, , Transport , , Domestic , , ,056 11, , Other final users , , , , Non energy use , , Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 2. Primary supply minus primary demand. 3. Annual transfers should ideally be zero. For manufactured fuels differences occur in the rescreening of coke to breeze. For oil and petroleum products differences arise due to small variations in the calorific values used. 4. Includes all manufactured solid fuels, benzole, tars, coke oven gas and blast furnace gas. 5. Inludes colliery methane. 6. Includes geothermal, solar heat and biofuels for transport; wind and wave electricity included in primary electricity figures. Electricity Heat sold Coal Manufactured fuels 4 Primary oil Petroleum Products Natural gas 5 Rennewables & waste 6 Primary electricity Electricity Heat sold

79 77 March SOLID FUEL AND DERIVED GASES Table 2.1 Supply and consumption of coal p per cent change th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter p Thousand tonnes per cent change 2 SUPPLY Indigenous production 17,874 18, ,156 4,101 4,800 4,683 4,290 3,586 4,664 5,125r 4, Deep mined 7,520 7, ,350 1,620 2,181 2,020 1,699 1,138 1,856 2,113 2, Surface mining 3 9,854 10, ,704 2,356 2,488 2,533 2,477 2,336 2,690 2,894r 2, Other sources Imports 4 38,167 26, ,079 12,523 9,639 8,117 7,888 7,679 5,349 5,806 7, Exports r 146r 130r Stock change 6-6,608 +7, ,339-3, ,691r +196r -535r +3,861 Total supply 48,786 51, ,988 17,351 10,002 8,725 12,709 14,820r 10,062r 10,266r 16, Statistical difference r +12r +23r -12 Total demand 48,805 51, ,068 17,340 10,016 8,698 12,752 14,892r 10,051r 10,243r 16, TRANSFORMATION 46,271 48, ,390 16,714 9,443 8,008 12,105 14,239 9,441r 9,649r 15, Electricity generation 39,678 41, ,538 15,122 7,833 6,381 10,342 12,447 7,606r 7,873 13, Heat generation Coke manufacture 4,936 5, ,416 1,220 1,232 1,204 1,281 1,321 1,390 1,357 1, Blast furnaces Patent fuel manufacture r Energy industry use r 1 FINAL CONSUMPTION 2,530 2, r r 657r +1.9 Iron & steel r 12 (-) Other industries 1,759 1, r r 440r +0.2 Domestic r r Other final users r 13 15r Stocks at end of period Distributed stocks 22,640 15, ,412 15,432 19,675 23,553 22,640 19,146r 18,836r 19,159r 15, Of which: Major power producers 9 21,770 13, ,863 13,845 18,360 22,863 21,770 17,544 16,728 17,613r 13, Coke ovens 806 1, ,065 1, ,189 1,199 1, Undistributed stocks 1,450 1, ,140 1,320 1,172 1,450 1,253r 1,367r 1,579r 1, Total stocks 10 24,090 16, ,262 16,571 20,995 24,725 24,090 20,399r 20,203r 20,738r 16, is 4 days longer than the standard 52 week statistical reporting period (SRP) for January to December This is to enable a smooth transition to publishing data on a calendar month basis from January 2009 rather than 4 and 5 week SRPs used for previous years. 2. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 3. The term 'surface mining' has now replaced opencast production. Opencast production is a surface mining technique. 4. For a detailed breakdown of UK Imports by country and grade of coal refer to Table 2.4 Coal imports (internet table only). 5. Trade is counted as an export under three conditions, when it is recorded as an import and is subsequently exported; it enters the UK port with the intention of being imported but due to a change of ownership at the port it is exported without having cleared the port; and when items leave the warehouse and are exported. Trade is not classified as exports when it is resting at a UK port and the UK is not the intended final destination. 6. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 7. Heat generation is based on an annual figure and is then split over a quarterly period. The 2010 heat generation will not be published until the end of July Therefore, the 2009 figure is used as an estimate for The iron and steel consumption statistics are based on an annual figure from the EU ETS dataset and is then split over a quarterly period. The 2010 EU ETS will not be available until 2012, the 2009 estimates are used instead. 9. This includes stocks held at ports. 10. For some quarters, closing stocks may not be consistent with stock changes, due to additional stock adjustments

80 March SOLID FUEL AND DERIVED GASES Table 2.2 Supply and consumption of coke oven coke, coke breeze and other manufactured solid fuels p per cent change th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter p Thousand tonnes SUPPLY Indigenous production 3,996 4, , ,049 1,079 1,113 1,096 1, Coke oven coke 3,663 3, , ,031 1, Coke breeze Other MSF Imports (-) Exports (+) Stock change r -28r -138r -99 Transfers Total supply 4,004 3, , ,147 1,020r 964r 851r Statistical difference r 1r 2r -0r -4 Total demand 4,004 3, , ,146 1,020r 962r 852r TRANSFORMATION 3,180 2, Coke manufacture Blast furnaces 3,180 2, Energy industry use #DIV/0! FINAL CONSUMPTION r 204r 169r Iron & steel r 97r Other industries r 15r 7r Domestic r Stocks at end of period , r 468r 603r is 4 days longer than the standard 52 week statistical reporting period (SRP) for January to December This is to enable a smooth transition to publishing data on a calendar month basis from January 2009 rather than 4 and 5 week SRPs used for previous years. 2. The Iron and Steel industry has reclassified the majority of coke breeze production to coke oven coke production 3. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 4. For some quarters, closing stocks may not be consistent with stock changes, due to additional stock adjustments 5. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. per cent change 5

81 2 SOLID FUEL AND DERIVED GASES Table 2.3 Supply and consumption of coke oven gas, blast furnace gas, benzole and tars 1 79 March p per cent change th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter p SUPPLY Indigenous production 20,912 21, ,838 4,739 4,876 5,422 5,875 5,466r 5,799r 5,324r 5, Coke oven gas 8,010 8, ,290 1,935 1,972 1,964 2,138 2,088r 2,327r 2,208r 2, Blast furnace gas 11,366 11, ,101 2,425 2,524 3,087 3,329 2,994r 3,029 2,709r 2, Benzole & tars 1,536 1, Transfers r 66r Total supply 21,266 21, ,853 4,776 4,999 5,504 5,986 5,577r 5,826r 5,390r 5, Statistical difference r +2r -4r -0 Total demand 21,312 21, ,898 4,783 5,010 5,519 6,000 5,571r 5,824r 5,395r 5, TRANSFORMATION 9,576 8, ,198 1,934 2,316 2,644 2,682 2,307r 2,154r 2,179r 2, Electricity generation 8,978 8, ,049 1,785 2,167 2,494 2,532 2,158r 2,005r 2,030r 2, Heat generation Energy industry use 8,213 7, ,311 1,882 1,958 2,110 2,263 2,070r 2,001r 1,916r 1, Losses ,727 (+) r FINAL CONSUMPTION 2,714 3, r 994r 812r Iron & steel 949 1, r 506r 352r Other industries 1,765 1, r 488r 459r is 4 days longer than the standard 52 week statistical reporting period (SRP) for January to December This is to enable a smooth transition to publishing data on a calendar month basis from January 2009 rather than 4 and 5 week SRPs used for previous years. 2. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 3, Losses in 2009 are comparatively lower than previous quarters, DECC are investigating the quality of this data. GWh per cent change 2

82 March OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.1 Supply and use of crude oil, natural gas liquids and feedstocks p per cent change th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd 4th quarter quarter p Thousand tonnes per cent change 8 SUPPLY Indigenous production 2 68,199 62, ,079 18,268 17,976 14,936 17,018 17,199 15,986 14,186r 15, Crude oil 62,820 58, ,499 16,758 16,502 13,870 15,690 15,818 14,679 13,107r 14, NGLs 3 5,378 4, ,580 1,510 1,474 1,067 1,328 1,381 1,307 1,079r 1, Imports 4 54,347 54, ,524 13,175 13,178 14,523 13,471 12,438 14,680 13,634 13, Crude oil & NGLs 47,664 48, ,847 11,434 11,553 12,599 12,078 11,076 13,050 12,010 11, Feedstocks 6,683 6, ,677 1,741 1,625 1,924 1,393 1,362 1,629 1,624 1, Exports 4 45,202 42, ,469 11,193 12,639 9,605 11,766 11,476 11,161r 8,689r 10, Crude Oil & NGLs 41,803 39, ,431 10,457 12,041 8,745 10,560 10,777 10,338r 8,039r 10, Feedstocks 3,399 2, , , Stock change r -594r +230r +435 Transfers 6-2,573-2, r -635r -499r -469 Total supply 75,315 73, ,768 19,479 18,203 19,314 18,319 17,531r 18,276r 18,862r 18, Statistical difference r -44r -70r -31 Total demand 75,225 73, ,771 19,599 18,068 19,398 18,161 17,461 18,320r 18,932 18, TRANSFORMATION 75,225 73, ,771 19,599 18,068 19,398 18,161 17,461 18,320r 18,932 18, Petroleum refineries 75,225 73, ,771 19,599 18,068 19,398 18,161 17,461 18,320r 18,932 18, Energy industry use As there is no use made of primary oils and feedstocks by industries other than the oil and gas extraction and petroleum refining industries, other industry headings have not been included in this table. As such, this table is a summary of the activity of what is known as the Upstream oil industry. 2. Includes offshore and onshore production. 3. Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) are condensate and petroleum gases derived at onshore treatment plants. 4. Foreign trade as recorded by the Petroleum Industry which may differ from the figures published by HM Revenue and Customs in the Overseas Trade Statistics. Data are subject to further revision as revised information on imports and exports becomes available. 5. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). Stocks include stocks held at refineries, at oil terminals and also those held in tanks and partially loaded vessels at offshore facilities. 6. Mostly direct disposals to petrochemical plants. 7. Total supply minus total demand. 8. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier.

83 3 OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.2 Supply and use of petroleum products Thousand tonnes March p per cent change 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter p per cent change 1 SUPPLY Indigenous production 2 77,331r 75, ,321 20,011r 18,810r 19,905r 18,605r 17,863r 18,845r 19,452r 19, Imports 3 22,458 23, ,358 5,887 5,227 5,615 5,730 6,290r 5,559r 5,944r 6, Exports 3 25,733 25, ,897 6,648 6,064 6,512 6,510 6,192 6,171 6,615 6, Marine bunkers 2,490 2, Stock change r -53r +69r +262 Transfers r -37r -30r -74 Total supply 71,873r 71, ,699 18,600r 17,819r 18,133r 17,320r 17,732r 17,609r 18,224r 17, Statistical difference r -18r +32r -68 Total demand 71,838r 71, ,808 18,550r 17,739r 18,141r 17,409r 17,723r 17,627r 18,191r 17, TRANSFORMATION 1,771 1, r 257r 305r Electricity generation 1,552 1, r 204r 254r Heat generation r Blast furnaces r 39r Energy industry use 4,399r 4, ,163 1,178r 1,055r 1,065r 1,101r 978r 1,141r 1,225r 1, Petrolem Refineries 4,399r 4, ,163 1,178r 1,055r 1,065r 1,101r 978r 1,141r 1,225r 1, Blast Furnaces Others FINAL CONSUMPTION 65,668 65, ,027 16,879 16,305 16,675 15,809 16,346r 16,229r 16,662r 16, Iron & steel r 12r 10r Other industries 4,887 4, ,423 1,321 1,085 1,256 1,225 1,320r 1,010r 1,155r 1, Transport 49,614 49, ,480 12,415 12,456 12,937 11,807 11,968r 12,217r 12,983r 12, Domestic 2,713 2, ,028r 513r 398r Other final users 1,148 1, r 349r 233r Non energy use 7,254 7, ,846 1,823 1,959 1,822 1,651 1,691r 2,127r 1,884r 1, Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 2. Includes refinery production and petroleum gases extracted as products during the production of oil and gas. 3. Foreign trade as recorded by the Petroleum Industry which may differ from the figures published by HM Revenue and Customs in the Overseas Trade Statistics. Data are subject for further revision as revised information on imports and exports becomes available. 4. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 5. Mainly transfers from product to feedstock. 6. Total supply minus total demand.

84 March OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.3 Supply and use of petroleum products - annual data p Thousand tonnes 82 Total Petroleum Products Motor spirit Gas diesel oil 1,9 Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oils Petroleum gases 2 SUPPLY Indigenous production 4 77,331r 20,404 25,393r 6,022 8,641r 7,171r 2,830 6,870 75,356 20,073 24,793 5,668 7,525 7,298 2,679 7,319 Imports 5 22,458 2,966 6,616r 7,513 1, ,945 23,810 3,263 8,481 7, ,520 Exports 5 25,733 7,811 6,033 1,451 5, ,992 25,951 8,629 6,458 1,454 4, ,593 Marine bunkers 2, , , , Stock change 6 322r Transfers Total supply 71,873r 15,787 25,452r 11,593 2,568r 7,036r 3,749 5,687 71,454 14,994 26,060 11,170 2,364 6,902 3,881 6,083 Statistical difference Total demand 71,838r 15,762 25,369r 11,514 2,643r 6,977r 3,731 5,843 71,498 15,000 26,091 11,171 2,352 6,910 3,894 6,080 TRANSFORMATION 1, , Electricity generation 1, , Heat generation Petroleum refineries Coke manufacture Blast furnaces Patent fuel manufacture Energy industry use 4,399r r 2,313r - 1,410 4, ,545-1,401 FINAL CONSUMPTION 65,668 15,762 25,342r 11,514 1,021 4,368 3,731 3,931 65,618 15,000 26,028 11, ,123 3,894 4,445 Iron & steel Other industries 4,887-2, ,449-4,818-2, ,554 - Transport 49,614 15,762 21,669 11, ,229 15,000 22,326 11, Domestic 2, ,270-2, ,332 - Other final users 1, ,234-1, Non energy use 7, ,203-3,908 7, ,861-4,403 Burning oil Other products 3 Total Petroleum Products 1. Includes DERV road fuel and middle distillate feedstock destined for use in the petrochemical industry 2. Includes ethane, propane, butane and other petroleum gases. 3. Includes naphtha, industrial and white spirits, lubricants, bitumen, petroleum waxes, petroleum coke and other oil products. 4. Includes refinery production and petroleum gases extracted as products during the production of oil and gas. 5. Foreign trade as recorded by the Petroleum Industry which may differ from the figures published by HM Revenue and Customs in the Overseas Trade Statistics Data are subject to further revision as revised information on imports and exports becomes available. 6. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 7. Mainly transfers from product to feedstock. 8. Total supply minus total demand. 9. See page 11 of the September 2006 edition of Energy Trends for a note concerning changes to this table Motor spirit Gas diesel oil 1,9 Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oils Petroleum gases 2 Burning oil Other products 3

85 3 OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.4 Supply and use of petroleum products - latest quarter th quarter th quarter p Thousand tonnes 83 March 2011 Total Petroleum Products Motor spirit Gas diesel Oil 1,9 Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oils Petroleum gases 2 Burning oil SUPPLY Indigenous Production 4 18,605r 5,040 6,089 1,314 1,926 1,777r 850 1,609 19,195 5,155 6,353 1,212 1,918 1, ,929 Imports 5 5, ,814 1, , ,027 1, Exports 5 6,510 2,156 1, , ,021 6,972 2,482 1, , Marine bunkers Stock change Transfers Total supply 17,320r 3,805 6,106 2, ,743r 1,167 1,259 17,889 3,656 6,404 2, ,727 1,271 1,489 Statistical difference Total demand 17,409r 3,740 6,137 2, ,735r 1,171 1,329 17,957 3,655 6,410 2, ,723 1,290 1,496 TRANSFORMATION Electricity generation Heat generation Petroleum refineries Coke manufacture Blast furnaces Patent fuel manufacture Energy industry use 1,101r r , FINAL CONSUMPTION 15,809 3,740 6,130 2, ,051 1, ,381 3,655 6,390 2, ,290 1,038 Iron & steel Other industries 1, , Transport 11,807 3,740 5,265 2, ,061 3,655 5,401 2, Domestic Other final users Non energy use 1, , , Includes DERV road fuel and middle distillate feedstock destined for use in the petrochemical industry. 2. Includes ethane, propane, butane and other petroleum gases. 3. Includes naphtha, industrial and white spirits, lubricants, bitumen, petroleum waxes, petroleum coke and other oil products. 4. Includes refinery production and petroleum gases extracted as products during the production of oil and gas. 5. Foreign trade as recorded by the Petroleum Industry which may differ from the figures published by HM Revenue and Customs in the Overseas Trade Statistics. Data are subject to further revision as revised information on imports and exports becomes available. 6. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 7. Mainly transfers from product to feedstock. 8. Total supply minus total demand. 9. See page 11 of the September 2006 edition of Energy Trends for a note concerning changes to this table. Other products 3 Total Petroleum Products Motor spirit Gas diesel Oil 1,9 Aviation turbine fuel Fuel oils Petroleum gases 2 Burning oil Other products 3

86 March OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.5 Demand for key petroleum products p per cent change th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter p Thousand tonnes per cent change 2 MOTOR SPIRIT Total sales 15,762 15, ,157 3,885 4,103 4,034 3,740 3,665r 3,841r 3,839r 3, By seller: Retail sales: 3 15,194 14, ,067 3,753 3,952 3,881 3,608 3,541r 3,700r 3,693r 3, hypermarkets 4 6,223 5, ,803 1,523 1,562 1,598 1,540 1,388r 1,466 1,446 1, refiners/other traders 8,970 8, ,264 2,230 2,390 2,283 2,068 2,153r 2,234r 2,247r 1, Commercial sales r 142r 146r By grade: 4-Star/Leaded/LRP r 3r 3r Super Premium Unleaded r 141r 147r Premium Unleaded/ULSP 7 14,892 14, ,910 3,650 3,897 3,859 3,487 3,503r 3,697r 3,690r 3, GAS DIESEL OIL Total sales 25,369 26, ,375 6,482 6,170 6,580 6,137 6,595r 6,337r 6,748r 6, DERV fuel 20,057 20, ,984 5,048 4,943 5,140 4,926 5,229r 5,113r 5,368r 5, Retail sales: 3 12,614 13, ,121 3,149 3,112 3,263 3,090 3,207r 3,214r 3,535r 3, hypermarkets 4 4,447 4, ,154 1,063 1,080 1,157 1,147 1,129 1,190 1,228 1, refiners/other traders 8,167 8, ,967 2,086 2,032 2,106 1,944 2,077r 2,024r 2,307r 2, Commercial sales 5 7,443 7, ,862 1,899 1,831 1,877 1,835 2,023r 1,899r 1,832r 1, Other gas diesel oil 8 5,312 5, ,392 1,434 1,227 1,440 1,211 1,366r 1,225r 1,380r 1, AVIATION FUELS Total sales 11,536 11, ,738 2,785 2,942 3,146 2,662 2,489r 2,776 3,230r 2, Aviation spirit r 6 7r Aviation turbine fuel 11,514 11, ,733 2,782 2,935 3,139 2,658 2,485r 2,770 3,223r 2, FUEL OIL Total Sales 1,966 1, r 442r 314r Light r 86r 129r 318 (+) Medium r 16r 37r Heavy 1, r 340r 148r Monthly data for inland deliveries of oil products are available - See DECC website: 2. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 3. Retail sales are those deliveries made to garages etc. mainly for resale to final consumers. 4. Data for sales by hypermarket companies are collected by a separate reporting system, but are consistent with the main data collected from companies. 5. Commercial sales are those deliveries made direct to a consumer for use in their own business, e.g. to bus and coach depots. 6. Sales of leaded petrol ceased from 31st December 1999, with Lead Replacement Petrol being introduced as a replacement fuel. 7. ULSP is Ultra Low Sulphur Petrol introduced during the second half of 2000 and first half of 2001 as a replacement for ordinary Premium grade unleaded petrol. 8. This includes gas diesel oil used for other purposes such as heating and middle distillate feedstock destined for use in the petrochemical industry.

87 85 March OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.6 Stocks of petroleum 1 at end of period Thousand tonnes Crude oil and refinery process oil Petroleum products Total stocks Light Kerosene & Fuel Other Total Net Stocks Total Refineries 2 Terminals 3 Offshore 4 Total 5 distillates 6 gas/diesel 7 oils products 8 products bilaterals 9 in UK 10 stocks ,616 1, ,787 1,089 5, ,545 9,156 2,104 13,840 15, ,848 1, ,033 1,157 6, ,555 9,915 2,728 13,221 15, p 4,110 1, ,878 1,144 5, ,519 8,936 2,593 12,221 14,813 Per cent change th quarter 4,616 1, ,787 1,089 5, ,545 9,156 2,104 13,840 15, st quarter 4,453 1, , , ,632 9,611 2,427 14,087 16,514 2nd quarter 4,214 1, , , ,591 9,391 2,800 12,885 15,686 3rd quarter 4,015 1, , ,268 1,061 1,636 9,932 2,905 13,341 16,246 4th quarter 3,848 1, ,033 1,157 6, ,555 9,915 2,728 13,221 15, st quarter 3,750 1, ,183 1,150 5,800r 950r 1,476 9,376r 2,565 12,994r 15,559r 2nd quarter 4,285 1, ,812 1,060 5,924r 1,012r 1,473 9,469r 2,858 13,424r 16,282r 3rd quarter 4,134 1,327r 617r 6,258r 1,212 5,928r 827r 1,540 9,507r 2,841 12,924r 15,765r 4th quarter p 4,110 1, ,878 1,144 5, ,519 8,936 2,593 12,221 14,813 Per cent change Stocks held at refineries, terminals and power stations. Stocks in the wholesale distribution system and certain stocks at offshore fields (UK Continental Shelf [UKCS]), and others held under approved bilateral agreements are also included. 2. Stocks of crude oil, NGLs and process oil at UK refineries. 3. Stocks of crude oil and NGLs at UKCS pipeline terminals. 4. Stocks of crude oil in tanks and partially loaded tankers at offshore field (UKCS). 5. Includes process oils held under approved bilateral agreements. 6. Motor spirit and aviation spirit. 7. Aviation turbine fuel, burning oil, gas oil, DERV fuel, middle distillate feedstock (mdf) and marine diesel oil. 8. Ethane, propane, butane, other petroleum gases, naphtha (ldf), industrial white spirit, bitumen, petroleum wax, lubricating oil, petroleum coke and miscellaneous products. 9. The difference between the stocks held abroad for UK use under approved bilateral agreements and the equivalent stocks held in the UK for foreign use. 10. Stocks held in the national territory or elsewhere on the UKCS. 11. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier.

88 March OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS Table 3.7 Drilling activity 1 on the UKCS Number of wells started 86 Offshore Onshore Exploration & Exploration & Exploration Appraisal Appraisal Development 2 Appraisal Development p Per cent change th quarter st quarter nd quarter rd quarter th quarter st quarter nd quarter rd quarter r 4th quarter p Per cent change Including sidetracked wells 2. Development wells are production or injection wells drilled after development approval has been granted. 3. Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier

89 4 GAS Table 4.1. Natural gas supply and consumption p per cent change th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter p GWh per cent change1 87 March 2011 SUPPLY Indigenous production 693, , , , , , , , ,405r 146,354r 159, Imports 455, , , ,286 83,142 78, , , ,234 91,049r 186, of which LNG 110, , ,117 13,224 18,744 29,873 48,737 48,033 48,479 43,839r 63, Exports 137, , ,939 34,357 45,420 27,409 29,913 28,391 57,615r 49,278r 41, Stock change 2-4, ,271 +6, ,930-22,147-8,763 +6, ,558-21,833-13, ,491 Transfers r -28r -66r -58 Total supply 1,007,425 1,092, , , , , , ,813r 223,164r 174,114r 323, Statistical difference 317 1, r -50r +2,142r -117 Total demand 1,007,108 1,090, , , , , , ,891r 223,213r 171,971r 323, TRANSFORMATION 380, , ,232 89,307 88,155 96, , ,250r 101,992r 90,813r 93, Electricity generation 355, , ,067 81,781 82,778 91,757 99, ,724r 96,615r 86,037r 86, Heat generation 3 24,716 24,716-7,166 7,526 5,377 4,776 7,037 7,526 5,377 4,776 7,037 - Energy industry use 68,984 69, ,947 18,787 17,992 14,859 17,347 19,151r 18,166r 15,178r 16, Losses 16,356 18, ,686 4,608 3,394 3,149 5,205 6,491r 4,695r 3,245r 4, FINAL CONSUMPTION 541, , , ,908 90,751 60, , ,999r 98,360r 62,735r 208, Iron & steel 5,037 7, ,292 1,200 1,137 1,293 1,407 1,769r 1,794r 1,766r 1, Other industries 109, , ,571 33,784 18,815 18,423 38,362 39,372r 20,246r 19,235r 38, Domestic 334, , , ,022 52,958 28, , ,632r 58,049r 29,343r 138, Other final users 83,099 87, ,103 31,657 15,597 9,928 25,917 34,980r 16,026r 10,147r 26, Non energy use 3 8,979 8,979-2,318 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2,245 2, Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 2. Stock fall (+), stock rise (-). 3. For Heat generation and non energy use, the 2010 figures currently shown are the 2009 figures carried forward - these will be updated in July 2011.

90 March ELECTRICITY Table 5.1. Fuel used in electricity generation and electricity supplied p per cent change th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter p per cent change 1 FUEL USED IN GENERATION All generating companies Million tonnes of oil equivalent Coal Oil r Gas r 8.32r 7.41r Nuclear Hydro Wind r 0.14r 0.24r Other renewables r r Other fuels Net imports (-) Total all generating companies r 17.90r 17.28r ELECTRICITY GENERATED All generating companies TWh Coal r 19.68r 20.07r Oil r Gas r 40.66r Nuclear Hydro (natural flow) r Wind r 1.65r 2.73r of which, Offshore r 0.46r 0.82r 1.10 Other renewables r 3.10r 3.26r Pumped Storage Other fuels Total all generating companies r 86.40r 82.60r ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED 4 All generating companies TWh Coal r 18.68r 19.06r Oil Gas r 39.73r Nuclear Hydro r Wind r 1.65r 2.73r of which, Offshore r 0.46r 0.82r 1.10 Other renewables r 2.79r 2.94r Pumped Storage (net supply) Other fuels Net imports (-) Total all generating companies r 83.09r 80.87r Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 2. This table includes the change of definition of Major power producers (MPPs) to include major wind farm companies. Details of this change of definition were given in an article on pages 43 to 48 of the September 2008 edition of Energy Trends. 3. Includes non-biodegradable wastes 4. Electricity supplied net of electricity used in generation 5. Net supply from pumped storage is usually negative, as electricity used in pumping is deducted.

91 5 ELECTRICITY Table 5.2 Supply and consumption of electricity p Per cent change th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter p GWh Per cent change 1 89 March 2011 SUPPLY Indigenous production 375, , , ,204 84,468 86,084 99, ,288r 86,396r 82,604r 103, Major power producers , , ,917 95,074 75,597 76,868 90,243 98,350r 77,557r 73,797r 94, Auto producers 34,197 33, ,533 9,099 8,048 8,308 8,741 9,073r 8,076r 8,102r 8, Other sources 4 3,685 3, ,113 1, Imports 6,609 7, ,049 1,402 2,985 1, ,025 2,943 1,479 (+) Exports 3,748 4, ,999 2, , Transfers Total supply 378, , , ,770 87,249 86,896 98, ,601r 87,811r 85,363r 104, Statistical difference -194r r -429r 245r -58r 200r 407r 81r 11 Total demand 378,719r 383, , ,721r 87,678r 86,651r 98,669r 106,402r 87,405r 85,282r 104, TRANSFORMATION Energy industry use 5 29,609r 29, ,017 8,351r 6,913r 6,883r 7,461r 8,102r 6,716r 6,488r 7, Losses 26,911 28, ,781 7,597 6,817 6,534 5,963 7,577r 6,968r 6,902r 7, FINAL CONSUMPTION 322,199r 325, ,171 89,773r 73,948r 73,233r 85,244r 90,722r 73,721r 71,892r 88, Iron & steel 3,607 3, , Other industries 95,211r 98, ,265 24,432r 22,566r 22,645r 25,568r 25,182r 23,374r 23,188r 26, Transport 8,818r 8, ,285 2,190r 2,203r 2,203r 2,223r 2,216 1,884r 2,147 2, Domestic 118,153r 118, ,256 36,268r 25,227r 23,798r 32,860r 36,035r 25,035r 23,167r 34, Other final users 96,411r 95, ,211 25,979r 23,073r 23,678r 23,682r 26,407r 22,566r 22,508r 24, Non energy use Percentage change in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with a year earlier. 2. Companies that produce electricity from nuclear sources plus all companies whose prime purpose is the generation of electricity are included under the heading "Major Power Producers". At the end of December 2009 they were: AES Electric Ltd., Baglan Generation Ltd., Barking Power Ltd., British Energy plc., Centrica Energy, Coolkeeragh ESB Ltd., Corby Power Ltd., Coryton Energy Company Ltd., Derwent Cogeneration Ltd., Drax Power Ltd., EDF Energy plc., E.On UK plc., Energy Power Resources, Gaz De France, GDF Suez Teesside Power Ltd., Immingham CHP, International Power Mitsui, Magnox North Ltd., Premier Power Ltd., RGS Energy Ltd, Rocksavage Power Company Ltd., RWE Npower plc., Scottish Power plc., Scottish and Southern Energy plc., Seabank Power Ltd., SELCHP Ltd., Spalding Energy Company Ltd., Western Power Generation Ltd. 3. This table includes the change of definition of Major power producers (MPPs) to include major wind farm companies. Details of this change of definition were given in an article on pages 43 to 48 of the September 2008 edition of Energy Trends. 4. Gross supply from pumped storage hydro 5. Includes electricity used in generation and for pumping

92 List of special feature articles published in Energy Trends between March and December 2010 Energy March 2010 June 2010 September 2010 December 2010 Gas and electricity consumption data below Local Authority level European Energy Efficiency trends an overview of indicators from the Odyssee project Variation in Tariff Types and Energy Bills Summary of Energy Efficiency Trends of IT appliances in Households an ODYSSEE publication Estimates of heat use in the United Kingdom Running hours during winter 2009/10 for plants opted-out of the Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) Potential changes to the methodology used to calculate domestic energy bills Sub-national estimates of non gas, non electricity and non road transport fuels for 2008 Sub-national total energy consumption statistics for 2008 New statistical release on home insulation levels CO 2 March 2010 CO 2 emissions and energy consumption in the UK 2009 Coal March 2010 Solid Fuels & Derived Gases: Coal Imports Combined Heat and Power (CHP) September 2010 Combined Heat and Power in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the regions of England in 2009 Electricity March 2010 Sub-national electricity consumption statistics for 2008 September 2010 December 2010 Gas March 2010 Reporting electricity Feed in Tariff data in DECC s Energy Statistics Daily variations in electricity demand, and the effects of the 2010 Football World Cup Electricity generation and supply figures for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England, 2006 to 2009 Sub-national electricity consumption statistics for 2009 Sub-national domestic electricity consumption in Northern Ireland during 2008 Liquefied Natural Gas December 2010 Sub-national gas consumption statistics for 2009 Physical gas flows across Europe in 2009 Petroleum (oil and oil products) June 2010 Regional and local use of road transport fuels in 2008 September 2010 The UK s refinery output and demand in an international context March

93 Renewables June 2010 Renewable energy in 2009 September 2010 December 2010 Renewable electricity in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the regions of England in 2009 Renewable energy: Statistics used for the EU 2020 renewables target New renewables table and amendments to electricity tables UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) March 2010 UKCS capital expenditure survey 2009 PDF versions of the special feature articles appearing in Energy Trends since 2006 can now be accessed on the Internet at: (articles by issue) or (articles by subject). 91 March 2011

94 March

95 Explanatory notes General More detailed notes on the methodology used to compile the figures and data sources are included in the annual Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics Notes to tables Figures for the latest periods and the corresponding averages (or totals) are provisional and are liable to subsequent revision. The figures have not been adjusted for temperature or seasonal factors except where noted. Due to rounding the sum of the constituent items may not equal the totals. Percentage changes relate to the corresponding period a year ago. They are calculated from unrounded figures but are shown only as (+) or (-) when the percentage change is very large. Quarterly figures relate to thirteen week periods except in the gas and petroleum sections where they relate to calendar quarters. All figures relate to the United Kingdom unless otherwise indicated. Symbols used in the tables.. - p r e not available nil or less than half the final digit shown provisional revised; where a column or row shows r at the beginning, most, but not necessarily all, of the data have been revised. estimated; totals of which the figures form a constituent part are therefore partly estimated Conversion factors 1 tonne of crude oil = 1 tonne = 1 gallon (UK) = 1 kilowatt (kw) = 1 megawatt (MW) = 1 gigawatt (GW) = 1 terawatt (TW) = Conversion matrices From Thousand toe Terajoules (TJ) Gigawatt hours (GWh) Million therms To: From Tonnes of oil equivalent Gigajoules (GJ) Kilowatt hours (kwh) Therms 7.55 barrels 1,000 kilograms litres 1,000 watts 1,000 kilowatts 1,000 megawatts 1,000 gigawatts All conversion of fuels from original units to units of energy is carried out on the basis of the gross calorific value of the fuel. More detailed information on conversion factors and calorific values is given in Annex A of the Digest of United Kingdom Energy Statistics. To convert from the units on the left hand side to the units across the top multiply by the values in the table. To: Thousand Terajoules GWh Million toe therms Multiply by Tonnes of oil equivalent Multiply by Gigajoules kwh 11, Therms Abbreviations Note that all factors are quoted to 5 significant figures Sectoral breakdowns ATF Aviation turbine fuel The categories for final consumption by user are defined by the Standard Industrial Classification 2003, as follows: CCGT Combined cycle gas turbine Fuel producers Final consumers 10-12, 23, 40 DERV Diesel engined road Iron and steel 27, excluding 27.4, and vehicle Other industry 13-22, 24-37, 41 and 45 excluding those parts of 27 relating to Iron and Steel GVA Gross value added Transport LNG Liquefied natural gas Other final users MSF Manufactured solid Agriculture 1-2, 5 fuels Commercial 50-52, 55, 64-67, NGLs Natural gas liquids Public administration 75, 80, 85 UKCS United Kingdom continental shelf Other services Domestic 90-93, 99 Not covered by SIC 2003

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