Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path. By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi

Transcription

1 Vision 2050 The Change to a Sustainable Energy Path By Gunnar Boye Olesen, Emil Bedi & Ann Vikkelsoe -EuropeEurope Article on Vision 2050 at org Europe is a network of 55 NGOs. -Europe is supported by EU Commission DG Environment, Danish Open Air Council and others Sustainable Energy for Europe -Europe seminar Brussels November 2002

2 Vision Background The world energy system: is beyond the environmental limits does not provide basic energy needs as light and healthy cooking facilities to 2 billions of the world s population To avoid dangerous climate change we must limit global warming to 1ºC in the 21st Century We should provide all with basic energy needs and allow developing countries to develop, including use of cheap energy supply

3 Environmental Limit: Climate Change To be sure to keep global warming below 1ºC century, we must limit global CO 2 emissions to about 250 Gigaton of Carbon in 21st century = 35 years of current consumption (assumed climate sensitivity of 3.5ºC) The climate sensitivity is commonly accepted to be in the range of 2 to 5ºC with an average of 3.5ºC.

4 A Global Sustainable Scenario CO2 (MtC)/y : 64 GtC After 2000: 240 GtC

5 9000 Scenario: Energy Services Industrialised countries Developing countries 8000 Energy Services 7000 per capita Transport El.+mechanical 3000 Medium+high t Low temp

6 Energy Demand Most energy consuming equipment will be replaced several times before 2050: new generations of equipment should maximize efficiency. Technology learning can drive prices down. One exception is houses. In EU houses could use only 1/7 of todays heat demand in This will require renovation/re-building of 2% p.a. / heat consumption kwh/year per m 2 For transport is expected increase in efficiency from todays 15-20% to 50%, and re-gain of break energy. Hydrogen and fuel cells as solutions together with electrical driven vehicles. Energy service demand d will increase, also in industrialized countries, energy demand decrease.

7 Primary Energy (TWh/y) Industrialised countries Developing countries Nuclear Fossil Biomass Hydro Solar Wind

8 Energy Supply Wind: Follow Windforce10 growth from todays 20, MW to reach 3,000,000 MW in 2040, then maybe less afterwards Large wind power development programs are cost- effective: extra costs today will be paid back with future cost reductions due to technology learning. Some sites give cost-effective electricity today. Solar: PV could reach 500 MWpeak in 2003, and then grow 25% pr. year Biomass and hydro: Increase 30-50% in total Biomass can be used as transport fuel

9 Renewable Energy Potential Giga awatt co ontinues consum mption GW Solar centrals PV on houses Biomass Hydro Windpower on farmland Wind, off-shore etc. Potential Scenario

10 Electricity - Worldwide (TWh/y) Nuclear Fossil tot. Hydro Solar Wind

11 Example Denmark Primary Energy Supply for Denmark (PJ) Coal Oil Gas Wind Solar Bio 100 Statistics Vis io n Proposal

12 Electricity Supply - Denmark Electricty Production( kwh/person pr. year) PV Wind/hydro/waves Biomass Waste 2000 Fossil 1000 Statistic Proposal (Scenario) Vision

13 Economy - DK scenario until 2030 The low-energy scenario is 2% cheaper than the business-as-usual scenario with zero discount rate It is 1% more expensive with 5% discount rate If environmental e costs s are included or if fossil fuel prices increases more than estimated by IEA, the low-energy scenario is considerably cheaper than business as usual. expected lower growth in energy services: need for decoupling of economy and energy services

14 Example - Slovakia 600 PJ J/year Electricity Heat Biomass-Heat+fuel Liquids-transportid t Gas Coal-black/brown 0 Today Possible consumption 2050 RE potential

15 Slovakian Renewable Energy Potentials: Heat-fuel reneweables PJ Wood Straw Biogas Electricity - renewables 101 PJ PV Hydro Energy crops Solar thermal Wind Geothermal

16 Energy Infrastructure Electricity grid still needed, as today Electricity it grid needs more regulation with many decentralised production units intelligent grid Need for electricity it storage to compensate wind & PV, in Slovakia hydro pump-storage, in Denmark probably chemical storage after 2030 New roles for electricity: transport, heat pumps, international energy trade Nuclear phase-out or earlier Because of large learning rates for the new technologies, minimal costs.

17 More on Infrastructure decentralised d power production, to use local l renewables and to cover heat demand (CHP) more investments in demand-side efficiency, less in energy supply, after transition phase gas demand stable until 2025, then decline hydrogen fuel cell systems for transport and to replace gas where local renewables insufficient some gas networks can be used for hydrogen heat networks to remain in densely built areas

18 Vision 2050 simple spread-sheet model Based on energy balance Trends for RE-supply, energy consumption, other fuels base bseye year. 10-years interval 2002 Denmark, Slovakia and EU 2003 Hungary, Romania, Belarus (probably)

19 TABLE 1 Fuel Oil products Year 2000 Orimulsion Petrocoke Fueloil+ waste oil Diesel+ heating oil Petrol+ kerosene Jet fuel Refinary gas Other oil products PJ Crude oil LPG Primary Production 764,53 310,30 Klimakorrektion (forbrug) 0,86 0,57 5,15 0,01 0,08 0,05 3,53 6,59 Refineries (conversion to end products) - 346,27 69,78 139,19 99,76 21,59 8,06 15,56 0,25 Import / export (incl. bunkring and international flights) - 416,62 33,54 5,67-61,31 9,26-14,89-18,56-4,66 23,35 158,43-120,68 Net storage, reuse and statistical difference - 1,64 0,61 1,12 11,05 1,97 2,97 0,06 0,10-1,50 7,49-3,11 Total Net supply - 0,00 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,57 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10 Oil, coal and gas sector Exploitation own consumption, flaring 25,03 Refinaries own consumption 1,27 13,63 10,07 Electricity and District heating stations 1,60 1,09 0,04 2,83 District heating sector Geothermal stations Condensing power stations 0,33 0,05 20,30 0,01 Cogeneration stations 35,01 4,55 0,31 1,98 136,67 90,89 RE (solar, wind, hydro, wave, tidal) Hydrogen Grid losses etc. 0,15 Final Energy consumption Non-energy purposes 12,03 Transport Road 68,66 86,08 0,53 Rail 3,08 0,01 Domestic aviation 0,05 1,94 Navigation 1,51 3,37 0,00 Defense 0,37 0,00 1,16 Production Farming etc. 0,01 2,03 24,62 0,14 0,23 1,23 3,81 Manufacturing 676 6, , , , ,83 11, ,46 Construction 0,04 6,39 0,03 0,17 0,21 Service sector Private 0,01 0,26 3,38 0,02 0,06 4,29 Public 0,01 0,12 2,00 0,01 0,06 2,09 Housheholds 0,01 0,04 33,29 1,40 0,70 0,05 30,33 Final Energy consumption - total, ex. non-energy 6,79 12,34 154,10 87,85 3,09 3,58 12,43 74,19 Total Consumption 35,01 6,79 20,09 155,56 87,85 3,09 3,58 15,61 22,09 169,45 193,10 Specific CO2-emissions (ton CO2/PJ) 2), 3), 4), 5) CO2-emissions (million ton CO2) 2,80 0,62 1,57 11,51 6,41 0,23 0,23 0,89 16,10 10,99 Coal & Coke Natural gas 1) TABLE 4 Specific Net Heat Fin. heat Share Share gas, coal, Share Share Share Share Consumptions parameters Heated floorspace 6) / Production consumption consump Heat. Eff. consump oil waste RE 7) electricity district h. total mill. m2 Factor MJ/m2 Factor PJ % PJ % % % % % % Pi Private service 49, , ,44 83% 29,3 13% 20% 2% 3% 63% 100% Public service 38, , ,0 90% 15,6 14% 13% 4% 2% 66% 100% Households 1 (multifamily) 77, , ,0 93% 42,1 6% 11% 0% 2% 80% 100% Households 2 (detached) 165, , ,2 80% 116,3 28% 22% 17% 6% 27% 100% Farming, etc. 8) ,5 72% 13% 9% 6% 100% Manufacturing 8) ,3 32% 54% 6% 8% 100% Construction 8) ,85 97% 3% 100% Total 330,0