Scale and Efficiency. T. Gutowski and 2.813

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Scale and Efficiency. T. Gutowski and 2.813"

Marjory Clarke
5 years ago
Views:

1 Scale and Efficiency T. Gutowski 2.83 and 2.813

2 Readings & Homework Efficiency, Production, and Resource Consumption: A Historical Review of Ten Industrial Activities Dahmus, J. and T. Gutowski, Working Paper 27 Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy: The Economists Debate, Herring, H Energy in the Future: Trends and Unknowns CH 6 in Energy by Smil 26

3 Outline 1. Strategies to reduce our materials and energy footprint 2. Eco-efficiency 3. Ten Production/ Consumption Sectors 4. What Works? 1. Pig Iron 2. Aluminum 3. Fertilizer 4. Coal/Electric 5. Oil/Electric 6. Gas/Electric 7. Rail Freight 8. Air Passenger 9. Motor Vehicle Travel 1. Refrigerators

4 Exa = 1 18 Manufacturing Energy Use ~ 24% (direct), to ~ 45% (direct and indirect)

5 Strategies to Reduce Our (Mostly Materials, and Energy) Footprint End of Pipe $$ Substitution Recycle De-Materialization Eco-Efficiency De-Coupling

6 Eco-Efficiency Efficiency e = goods and services environmental load assigns responsibility allows comparisons attempts to balance economy with environment many examples from company reports but, does it protect the environment?

7 Eco Eco-Efficiency, Efficiency, by 3M & Dow Chairmen, MIT Press, 2

8 What are the goals of Industrial Ecology?

15 Dover, New Hampshire Montataire, France

16 But, Does Eco-efficiency Protect the Environment? Does it result in an absolute (not relative) reduction in the scale of our materials and energy use?

17 Impact Identity W Q R I I = P P W Q R P = population W = wealth per year Q = quantity of a good or service R = resource used I = Impact

18 Production Equation Impact = Production Impact Production Energy Used Production or Consumption (Q) 1/efficiency (e) I = Q 1 e

19 Differentiating di dt = 1 e dq dt Q e de 2 dt Normalizing, and taking yearly increments e e Q Q?

20 Energy Efficiency in Pig Iron Production Worldwide Energy Efficiency of Pig Iron Production Efficiency of Pig Iron Production. (kg produced per GJ of energy used). Efficiency Year

21 Steam engine Efficiency after Smil, 1999

22 World Production of Pig Iron, Aluminum, & Fertilizer FIGURE 2: Worldwide Primary Aluminum Production (P ) and the Energy Efficiency of the Hall-Heroult Process (e ) b 2 3 e (kg of pig iron produced per GJ of energy consumed) FIGURE 1: Worldwide Pig Iron Production (P ) and the Energy Efficiency of Pig Iron Smelting (e ) a Efficiency Year Production P (billion kg of pig iron) e (kg of aluminum produced per GJ of electricity consumed) e (kg of nitrogen produced per GJ of energy consumed) 15 Efficiency 1 5 Production Year FIGURE 3: Worldwide Nitrogen Fertilizer Production (P ) and the Energy Efficiency of the Haber-Bosch Process (e ) c Efficiency Production P P (billion kg of nitrogen) (billion kg of aluminum) Year

23 I I Iron, Aluminum, & Fertilizer Energy Use Worldwide FIGURE A2: Impact (I ) of Worldwide Primary Aluminum Production b FIGURE A1: Impact (I ) of Worldwide Pig Iron Production a (billion GJ of electricity consumed) I (billion GJ of energy consumed) Year FIGURE A3: Impact (I ) of Worldwide Nitrogen Fertilizer Production c Year (billion GJ of energy consumed) Year

24 Electricity Production in the U.S. 4. FIGURE 5: Electricity Generation from Oil (P ) and the Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Oil (e ) (US data) d e (kwh of electricity produced per kg of coal consumed) FIGURE 4: Electricity Generation from Coal (P ) and the Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Coal (e ) (US data) d Efficiency Year Production P (billion kwh of electricity) e (kwh of electricity produced per liter of oil consumed) e (kwh of electricity produced per cubic meter of natural gas consumed) Efficiency Year Production FIGURE 6: Electricity Generation from Natural Gas (P ) and the Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Natural Gas (e ) (US data) d Efficiency Year Production P P (billion kwh of electricity) (billion kwh of electricity)

25 I I Coal, Oil & Gas Used for Electricity in the U.S. FIGURE A5: Impact (I ) of Electricity Generation from Oil (US data ) d FIGURE A4: Impact (I ) of Electricity Generation from Coal (US data) d (billion liters of oil consumed) I (billion kg of coal consumed) Year FIGURE A6: Impact (I ) of Electricity Generation from Natural Gas (US data) d Year (billion cubic meters of natural gas consumed) Year

26 Rail Freight & Passenger Air in the U.S. e (revenue tonne-kilometers of freight rail travel per liter of fuel consumed) FIGURE 7: Freight Rail Travel (P ) and the Energy Efficiency of Freight Rail Travel (e ) (US Class I railroads) e Efficiency Production Year P (billion revenue tonne-kilometers of freight rail travel) e (available seat kilometers of passenger air travel per liter of fuel consumed) FIGURE 8: Passenger Air Travel (P ) and the Energy Efficiency of Passenger Air Travel (e ) (US airlines) f Efficiency Production Year P (billion available seat kilometers of passenger air travel)

27 Motor Vehicles and Refrigerators in the U.S. 8 FIGURE 9: Motor Vehicle Travel Produced (P ) and the Efficiency of Motor Vehicle Travel (e ) (US data) g 5 2 FIGURE 1: Refrigeration Produced (P ) and the Efficiency of Refrigerators (e ) (US data) h 12 e (vehicle-kilometers of motor vehicle travel per liter of fuel consumed) Efficiency Production P (billion vehicle-kilometers of motor vehicle travel) e (hours of refrigeration produced per kwh of electricity consumed) Production Efficiency P (billion hours of refrigeration) Year Year

28 Note in some cases we have written Production as P and not Q Average Annual P/P versus Average Annual e/e 12% Aluminum 1% Nitrogen Fertilizer Electricity - natural gas 8% Average Annual P/P 6% Electricity - oil Passenger Air Travel Electricity - coal 4% Motor Vehicle Travel Pig Iron Refrigeration Freight Rail Travel 2% % -1% % 1% 2% Average Annual e/e

29 In Every Case P/P e/e Industrial Activity Time Period Average Annual e/e Average Annual P/P Average P/P / Average e/e Pig Iron % 4.1% 3.7 Aluminum % 11.1% 11.4 Nitrogen Fertilizer % 9.6% 1.2 Electricity from Coal % 5.8% 4.5 from Oil % 6.9% 4.5 from Natural Gas % 9.6% 5.4 Freight Rail Travel % 2.5% 1.2 Passenger Air Travel % 6.5% 4.9 Motor Vehicle Travel % 3.9% 13. Refrigeration % 2.5% --- These are annual average values

30 Let s Look More Closely

31 Decade by Decade Analysis Industrial Activity Time Period Average Annual e/e Average Annual P/P Freight Rail Travel % 2.5% % 3.% % 1.8% % 1.4% % 3.6% % 2.9% Passenger Air Travel % 6.5% % 15.6% % 5.3% % 5.2% % 3.% % 1.6%

32 Decade by Decade Analysis 5% FIGURE 12: Average Annual P/P versus Average Annual e/e for Freight Rail Travel (US Class I railroads) e FIGURE 13: Average Annual P/P versus Average Annual e/e for Passenger Air Travel (US airlines) f 16% % 4% % Average Annual P/P 3% 2% 1% Average Annual P/P 1% 8% 6% 4% % 2-25 % % 1% 2% 3% 4% Average Annual e/e % -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Average Annual e/e Rail Freight Passenger Air

33 Historical Jet Fuel Prices FIGURE 14: Historical Jet Fuel Prices f Average jet fuel price paid by US Airlines (26 cents per gallon) Year

34 Energy Used by Rail Freight and Passenger Air FIGURE A7: Impact (I ) of Freight Rail Travel (US Class I railroads) e 8 FIGURE A8: Impact (I ) of Passenger Air Travel (US airlines) f I (billion liters of fuel consumed) I (billion liters of fuel consumed) Year Year

35 Decade by Decade Analysis Industrial Activity Time Period Average Annual e/e Average Annual P/P Refrigeration % 2.5% % 3.6% % 2.8% % 2.2% % 1.7% Motor Vehicle Travel % 3.9% % 5.3% % 5.2% % 4.3% % 3.8% % 3.2% % 2.5% % 1.8%

36 Decade by Decade Analysis FIGURE 15: Average Annual P/P versus Average Annual e/e for Refrigeration (US data) h 4% FIGURE 16: Average Annual P/P versus Average Annual e/e for Motor Vehicle Travel (US data) g 6% % Average Annual P/P % 2% Average Annual P/P % 3% % 1% % % -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% Average Annual e/e % -1.% -.5%.%.5% 1.% 1.5% 2.% 2.5% Average Annual e/e Refrigerators Motor Vehicles

37 Energy Used for Motor Vehicle Travel and Refrigerator Use in the U.S. FIGURE A9: Impact (I) of Motor Vehicle Travel (US data) g FIGURE A1: Impact (I) of Refrigerator Use h I (billion liters of fuel consumed) I (billion kwh of electricity consumed) Year Year Motor Vehicles Refrigerators

38 Interactions between Efficiency and Production Learning more production can make you more efficient 3% reduction per doubling Technological Innovation e.g steam engine, nitrogen fertilizer Operational methods e.g. driving at a constant middle speed, only operating with a full load But more efficient operation can increase demand

39 Interactions between Efficiency and Production Price Elasticity of Demand eg. if price goes down 1% and Ep=1, demand will go up 1% Ep q = p / / q p price, p dq q Ep = = dp p dq dp p q Ep>1 for tires, autos, fresh tomatoes Gwartney 2 quantity, q Idealized linear demand curve

41 The Rebound Effect is some of the efficiency improvement actually responsible for driving some of the new demand? Yes! Historical context (Jevons, Oil Shocks, CO 2 Policy) see readings Herring and Smil

42 Greening 2

43 The Rebound Effect Efficiency that saves money has the effect of allowing you to buy more and/or feel richer. What you do with this savings is the key to whether an actual reduction can occur. There is no evidence (historical, nor theoretical) that efficiency improvements result in an absolute reduction in resources used over the long term on a global scale. (see Smil p 161 & 162)

44 What Works? Price Regulation External Value Proposition but not business as usual