Experience from the science - policy interface in Europe

Transcription

1 Experience from the science - policy interface in Europe Some ideas for future collaborative research Markus Amann Program Director International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Bridging Atmospheric Science and Policy in Asia Tokyo, March 10-11, 2015

2 Three prerequisites for a successful science-policy interface Salience Credibility Legitimacy

3 Paris/France, March 14-17, 2014 PM2.5 up to 185 μg/m 3

4 Origin of PM2.5 in Lyon Centre Ville station, μg/m 3 PM Households Primary PM: Traffic Sec. PM: Traffic + agri. Sec. PM: Industry + agri Primary PM: Industry Natural WHO guideline value 0 Origin Source: IIASA GAINS (Kiesewetter et al., 2014)

5 Cost-effective emission reductions by sector: SO 2 0% LITH SKRE CROA PORT UNKI ROMA BULG POLA ITAL SPAI HUNG LUXE MALT IREL BELG FRAN GREE AUST CZRE SLOV GERM ESTO NETH LATV DENM FINL CYPR SWED EU28 SO2 reductions relative to baseline -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% Oil fired Power Plants Agricultural Waste burning Industry: Paper and Pulp Other SO2 sources Coal fired Power Plants Refineries Conversion Combustion Industry Other Combustion Residential and Commercial Industry: Other Processes The GAINS knowledge base enables identification of cost-effective measures for each administrative unit (city/province/country) Measures differ greatly by region

6 Frequent arguments of individual economic actors to obstruct cooperative solutions Examples from Europe: Competitive disadvantages for individual companies/countries (e.g., diesel particle filters constitute larger share in costs of small cars than of large cars, disadvantage for companies/countries producing small cars) Unfair distribution of costs across sectors (e.g., costs for agricultural emission controls: ~30% of additional costs of new legislation, but only 3% of total emission control costs) Costs would eat up limited profit margin (farmers) Opportunity costs - Profits from emission control equipment lower than from other investments (refineries) Institutional negligence of existence cost-effective measures no attention from management hierarchy

7 Emission control costs by sector for achieving the air quality targets of the EU Thematic Strategy 5 4 Billion /yr Without Euro-VI With Euro-VI Without Euro-VI With Euro-VI National energy projections (+3% CO2) Climate policy scenario (-20% CO2) Power sector Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture

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9 Costs of delayed action and benefits from early adoption of transport regulations, China and India 700 BC emissions (kilotons) From traffic accidents Premature deaths (1000 cases) Due to inefficient I&M programs Due to delayed implementation of pollution controls Avoidable through early phase-in of Euro 6/VI from traffic accidents From current legislation DRAFT

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11 Summary Salience - Focus on issues that are relevant for stakeholders Identify major contributors to the problem Highlight critical implementation barriers Quantify costs of these barriers to society, and demonstrate benefits from early adoptions Analyze arguments/interests of individual stakeholders Not only from sectors that would face higher costs, but also from sectors who would benefit Compare with potential societal benefits Repository of successful examples of overcoming barriers IGES and IIASA could serve as impartial brokers