PM10 and PM2.5 exceedances: Measures and future projections: the Berlin case

Transcription

1 PM10 and PM2.5 exceedances: Measures and future projections: the Berlin case Martin Lutz Berlin Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment Directorate IX, Environment Policy Status Quo: source analysis & emerging issues Impact of measures already implemented Scope for additional local action Estimation of their likely impact on PM résumé & emerging issues for the CAFÉ review Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 1

2 Berlin PM10 not yet solved PM2.5: 29 µg/m³ 2011 PM2.5: 22 µg/m³ PM2.5: 24 µg/m³ Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 2

3 Source analysis Berlin spatial origin of PM10 in NE Germany Result of a 2010 statistics of backward trajectories arriving at monitoring sites in Brandenburg Berlin source: Reimer, Pfäfflin et. al Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 4

4 Source analysis Berlin spatial origin of kerbside PM10 Result of a backward trajectory analysis: Still significant transboundary transport of PM10 after two years of compliance again > 50 excess days in 2010, but reason for excess days > 50 µg/m³ PM10 at traffic sites in Berlin in % 13% 48% 33% 15% Berlin s homemade contribution to PM excess days has shrunk by 1/3 since 2006 almost 50% of excess days in Berlin in 2010 are due to cross-border PM-transport predominantly local or domestic predominantly crossborder LRT* from PL mix of local & LRT predominantly crossborder LRT* also from CZ Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 5

5 Source analysis Berlin (2007) origin of kerbside PM2.5 (simplified receptor modelling) waste treatment and disposal 0% other mobile sources and machinery 4% additional combustion 1% urban background 1% combustion in manufacturing industry other sources 4% non-industrial combustion 3% combustion in energy and tranformation industries 1% production processes 0% resuspension + abrasion by traffic 3% local traffic road transport 12% road transport 9% resuspension + abrasion by traffic 4% other sources 11% road transport 7% resuspension + abrasion by traffic 2% agriculture 4% combustion in manufacturing industry 2% production processes 8% non-industrial combustion 10% solvent and other product use 5% combustion in energy and tranformation industries 9% regional background Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 6

6 Number of appartments Example for measures fuel used for domestic heating (in 1000 units) district heating natural gas oil solid fuel electricity Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 7

7 source analysis Berlin contribution of biomass burning result of PM10 speciation and PMF analysis... city centre suburban city centre source: Wagener et al., EAC Manchester 2011 Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 8

8 source apportionment Paris study of 2011 at a traffic site (whole year) Origin of PM2.5 pollution in Paris at an urban background site (winter) Source: Airparif, 2011 small combustion, incl. wood burning Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 9

9 Berlin s Low Emission Zone vehicle emission citeria Stage 1: since Diesel vehicles: at least Euro 2 or Euro 1 & retrofit Gasoline vehicles: at least Euro1 Area: about 88 km² (Berlin total area: 892 km²) Inhabitants: about 1 Million (Berlin total: 3,4 Mio) Stage 2: since Diesel: Particle emission Euro 4: cars: Euro 3 + particle filter or better goods vehicles: also retrofit of Euro 1-3 towards Euro 4 Particle precondition: retrofit kits available for Euro 3 LEZ in force or planned in 56 German towns with differing ambition levels Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 10

10 Berlin LEZ real impact analysis particle tailpipe emissions LEZ impact: change of particle exhaust emissions based on fleet composition at Frankfurter Allee (new emission factor data base HBEFa 3.1) % -32% -58% 2007 Trend 2008 without LEZ Trend 2009 without LEZ Trend 2010 without LEZ LEZ 2008 LEZ 2009 LEZ whole fleet cars LGV < 3,5 t HGV > 3,5 t emissions extrapolated to the entire main road network based on the fleet composition at Frankfurter Allee (with DPF-retrofit, only warm emissions, no cold start impact) (preliminary results, vers. 22/3/2011) Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 11

11 traffic related traffic * black related* carbon total carbon particle concentration in Berlin % 99% 100% Total carbon [TC = EC * OC] in µg/m 3 percentage share of situations with low wind speed Berlin LEZ impact analysis total carbon concentration low emission zone in force 600% % 500% % 100% 78% 80% 73% 75% -56% 400% share of situations with low wind speed <2.4 m/s (2007=100%) average TC over 12 mini samplers outside the LEZ average TC over 10 mini samplers inside the LEZ 49% 47% 44% 40% 300% 200% % 119% 100% 100% 130% 141% 120% 100% % *traffic increment based on the difference between kerbside stations and urban background sites * local BC increment at traffic sites, adjusted to traffic volumes trend relative to 2007 before LEZ came into force elemental carbon (EC) particles plus other deposited organic compounds (OC) Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 12

12 Berlin LEZ impact analysis résumé no visible shift of traffic into surrounding areas significant change in the vehicle fleet composition: fewer dirty vehicles (<E1): LGV/HGV: only 4-7% instead of 30 % more clean vehicles (E4): cars 73% instead of 44%, lorries 50% instead of 17-23% decrease of traffic emissions on top of trend : exhaust particles: - 60%; NOx: - 20% LEZ is most effective single measure, if based on ambitious emission criteria covering a larger area introduced not too late ~ exemptions are limited possible benefit for the air quality 5-10% reduction of total PM10/2.5 & NO2, traffic related decrease of black carbon ~50% ~10 less excess days > 50 µg/m³ PM10 4 S - UM 43 Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 13

13 New air quality plan Stipulated type of measures Regional-, urban- and landscape planning Traffic on road, rail and inland waterways Cleaner vehicle technology and fuels Traffic management, incl speed limits Avoiding & shifting traffic to more sustainable transport modes Transport infrastructure improvement Domestic heating Off road machinery Industry und commerce Measures not pursued no tightening/extending of the LEZ, but termination of excemptions no road pricing/city toll/congestion charge lacking legal ground might generate traffic or push it in city areas without road pricing

14 Berlin s transport strategy impact on traffic volumes trend in traffic volumes in Berlin 2002 = 100% + within LEZ outside LEZ -14% 100% 99,9% 95,9% 97,3% 97,6% 98,2% 92,1% 91,1% 88,2% 100% 99,2% 97,5% 95,5% 94,9% 93,2% 89,6% 90,1% 86,1% Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 18

15 Revised air quality plan Action bundle house heating & off road machinery Emission control house heating we ll undertake extra source analysis consider setting stricter standards for solid fuel combustion assumption for impact analysis until 2015: replacement by particle free/reduced heating technology (natural gas/district heating) reduction of PM emissions of house heating by 60% Emission control machinery demonstration project launched retrofitting different machinery with DPF we set emission standards IIIB for public procurement of construction services as from 2014 assumption for impact analysis for 2015: retrofit with particle filters resulting in 75% less particle emission from construction machinery equals to 9% lower emission of other sources Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 21

16 New air quality plan simulated PM10 - pollution excess of 24h-standard modelled PM10 levels in main roads >30 km of main road sections in non-attainment with more 25ooo people living there Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 22

17 New air quality plan simulated PM10 - pollution trend scenario excess of 24h-standard trend scenario: implemention only of measures already planned (incl. LEZ) >15 km of main road sections in non-attainment with more 14ooo people living there Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 23

18 New air quality plan simulated PM10 - pollution action scenario excess of 24h-standard trend scenario plus: 60% less emissions for house heating & retrofit of mobile machinery >9 km of main road sections in non-attainment with more 8500 people living there Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 24

19 New air quality plan projected impact of measures on PM Impact of different bundles of additional measures to reduce particle pollution by 2015 & 2020 Expected decrease of particle (PM10) pollution* in Berlin regional BG urban increment local increment Trend % -14% -23% Trend 2015 & traffic measures & control of small combustion mobile machinery with DPF & -3% -19% -28% Trend 2015 & traffic management & vehicle technology -3% -8% -28% monitoring sites Trend % -3% -9% Urban areas 40 Traffic, local sources PM10 [µg/m³] urban background regional background hemispheric/natural background countryside hot spot total urban increment contribution relevant for AQ LV urban compliance increment annual average PM10 [µg/m³] 24h-limit value

20 Urban AQ management résumé from Berlin case efficiency of previous measures visible PM (black carbon) reduction due to LEZ similar improvement through transport planning & traffic management temporary short-term actions (smog alert) not effective Focus on new measures Faster introduction of Euro 6 vehicles & alternative concepts gas vehicles Exploit potential of optimizing traffic flows Clean up off road machinery & local shipping promoting and enforcing DPF retrofit scrutinize contribution & further development of wood burning remaining problems biomass combustion for house heating potentially rising counter-productive for public health and climate Filter technology is available EU regulatory framework needed still significant long-range (transboundary) transport of PM shrinking contribution from home-made sources by 1/3 since 2006 almost 50% of excess days in Berlin in 2010 are due to cross-border PM-transport Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 27

21 Urban AQ management emerging issues for CAFE 2.0 new NEC Directive needed incl. a ceiling for primary PM emissions important instrument to tackle transboundary PM transport small combustion of solid fuel European framework needed for type approval Common emission standards for boilers, stoves, burners regulation under EcoDesign Directive under development Enable funding of filter retrofit with EU money Off road machinery stricter standards for new equipment similar to road vehicles limit current exemptions from the mandatory deadline for market introduction of new standards EU wide technical specifications for DPF retrofit without increasing NO2 emissions introduce supportive economic measures on national/eu level road pricing schemes with tangible incentives for clean vehicle technology Euro 6, DPF retrofit, CNG, Hybrids, Electro adapt EU road pricing framework accordingly Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 28

22 Thank you for listening! Martin Lutz, Senate Department for Urban Development and Environment, Berlin 29