The new environmentalism

Transcription

1 The new environmentalism or Why (almost) everything we thought about saving the planet might be wrong Chris Goodall Llandidrod Wells, 11 th October

2 Transporte 9,000 km in a chilled ship 2

3 Driven over from Holland in an ordinary lorry 3

4 The carbon footprints compared 0.5 kilos of CO2 per kilo up to 50 kilos of CO2 per kilo 4

5 Packaging is a major environmental problem 95% 5% Yes No Source: Survey of employees of major packaging 5

6 Packaging is a major environmental problem Survey respondents? Employees of major packaging company 6

7 Packaging is a major environmental problem Lovely, fresh unpackaged 3 days life Ghastly thin cellophane film 14 days life 7

8 Packaging is a major environmental problem Replacing, re growing, remanufacturing and retransporting uses over 10 times more resources than packaging them properly in the first place 8

9 One researcher found that many foods had a higher carbon footprint if organic BETTER WORSE (French academic study, published 2012) 9

10 Sheep : wanton destroyers of the natural environment 10

11 What happened? How did environmentalism get side tracked? Silent Spring by Rachel Carson 1962, published in the US 11

12 The long running conflict 50 years of largely unresolved arguments The back to nature movement Protecting the natural environment Resisting consumerism Profoundly distrustful of science Largely speaking, antipathy towards business Modern industrial capitalism Sometimes blind to ecological effects Reliant on growing consumption Willing to be cavalier about unfavourable scientific findings 12

13 The back to nature movement Well intentioned, generous and * idealistic people But living a life unattractive to most. This isn t the answer.. 13

14 The challenge for environmentalism in the 21 st century The task is to give all 10bn people in 2050 Enough food Decent housing Communications Energy Water without compromising the right of future generations also to attain a reasonable standard of living for all 14

15 Despite pockets of true deprivation, industrial countries have come a long way since Silent Spring in 1962 lowered environmental pollution better air and water quality improved health near universal access to adequate food, communications, electricity 15

16 UK life expectancy at birth Years

17 One response: It s OK so far but we are using up the world s resources and destroying the planet at increasingly rapid rates We re doing fine. The next generation will not 17

18 Six propositions for the new environmentalism Human material wants are not infinite Once a high standard of living has been achieved, societies tend to reduce their use of resources The world has enough minerals in the earth s crust, and productivity in the soil, to give the 9bn people of 2050 a good standard of living for ever Economic growth and increased urbanisation is good for sustainability And population increase really isn t a central issue Climate change is the only systemic threat to the long term 18

19 Requirements for a civilised life for 10bn people Biomass (food, wood, clothing, perhaps fuel, shelter) Minerals (metals, rock for building) Energy, now largely from fossil fuels (heat, light, power) An absence of serious pollution and reasonable amounts of fresh water 19

20 The life cycle of materials used by humankind Recycle Su Extract Process Use Waste 20

21 UK food intake is slowly decreasing Average calories per person per day 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 Year Note: In 1974, average figures were about 2,800 calories 21

22 UK total energy consumption now lower than Millions of tonnes of oil equivalent Year 22

23 Trips and distance travelled: Great Britain Trips Distance Index 1972/73 = Index: 1972/73= / / / / / / / / / / / /

24 UK deliveries of sand & gravel and ready mixed concrete Index 1983 = Ready Mixed Concrete Sand & gravel 55 24

25 Waste from UK households is decreasing Million tonnes Year 25

26 Falling amounts of waste from UK homes and businesses Million Tonnes Year 26

27 Total UK emissions, including those relating to imports 15% fall 2004 to

28 Propositions 2 and 3 Individual societies need reasonable stocks of the main raw materials to provide prosperity The world has enough resources in the earth s crust to provide this stock of essential metals and minerals And, separately, the world s soils already provide enough food to sustain 9bn people in 2050 without extensive need for further deforestation 28

29 Stocks of iron and steel per head Iron stocks (tonnes per head) 29

30 Are the world s resources of iron ore sufficient? 10 bn people 12 tonnes each World need 120 bn tonnes iron World discovered resources 230 bn tonnes iron 30

31 Copper stocks 250 kg Now kg 40 kg 1 billion people 6 billion people 10 billion people 31

32 Requirements for copper stock 2,500 million tonnes 500 million tonnes Now

33 Enough identified copper ore to provide all with 250 kg each 2 billion tonnes 3 billion tonnes Need for copper in ore Identified resources of ore 33

34 The need for cement falls as countries reach middle income and above 34

35 World food production should be sufficient for ,300 calories 2,700 calories Global food production per person per day 2012 Average food intake per day

36 FAO projections for drivers of annual changes in agricultural production +0.7% +0.2% More calories per person +0.1% More meat and lower yield crops +0.8% Careful management may mean no need for substantial deforestation +0.2% Population increase Average yield per hectare Net increase to farmland 36

37 The central sustainability challenge Burnt already n Can be burnt Must be left in the ground 37

38 BP s view of 30% increase in energy use 2011 to 2030 If If BP is right, the world will finish burning the second piece of coal by about

39 Economic growth isn t the enemy Growth gives people better standards of living It encourages technical innovation and improved efficiency, often through dematerialisation. It makes difficult choices, such as to expand expensive renewable energy sources, easier A bigger economy makes pollution control more feasible And reduces the rate of population growth And, above all, once we have achieved a decent level of material goods, our needs for goods and energy appear to stabilise or fall. 39

40 And nor is population growth the obtacle that is sometimes imagined 40

41 Fertility is falling fast (except in the most economically deprived countries) Children per woman 41

42 The life cycle of materials used by humankind Recycle Su Extract Process Use Waste Landfill or other disposal Sustainability Chris Goodall 42

43 The final piece in the jigsaw: the Circular Economy RECYCLE Su Extract Process Use Waste Tiny amounts to landfill or disposal 43

44 My hypotheses Human societies appear to reach a natural peak in the use of materials and energy And we have enough in the earth s crust to give ourselves the *stock* of minerals we need. Similarly, the world s soils can provide us with enough calories for 9bn If we create a circular economy, we can live within our resources, for ever But we also need a *flow* of energy to sustain our lifestyles. And the moment, that flow is coming from fossil fuels, cumulatively adding CO2 to the atmosphere This is the central environmental challenge 44