De energietransitie vereist ook een verandering van gedrag en bestedingen

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1 De energietransitie vereist ook een verandering van gedrag en bestedingen Bob van der Zwaan Senior scientist sustainable energy technology ECN Part of TNO Bijz. hoogleraar duurzame energietechnologie Universiteit van Amsterdam

2 ENERGY TRANSITION: CHANGES REQUIRED ECN-TNO kennisfestival Bob van der Zwaan 29 November 2018, Amersfoort

3 GLOBAL NET CO2 EMISSIONS Around 2050 we should have net zero CO2 emissions, and after 2050 we need to realize negative CO2 emissions! Source: IPCC SR 1.5 ºC, 2018.

4 ENERGY TRANSITION To achieve net zero CO2 emissions, and other sustainability goals, we need to fundamentally change the way in which we produce and consume energy. We don t know how we will realize this change: there is no silver bullet, perhaps many technologies are needed, and all options possess obstacles. But we do know that all disciplines are needed to assist the energy transition, and renewables such as PV and wind power will likely play a large role. Other low-carbon technologies will almost surely also be needed: these can be both renewable and non-renewable.

5 INTERMITTENCY OF RENEWABLES One of the critical challenges for many renewables is their intermittency: the sun doesn t always shine, and the wind doesn t always blow. Many ways exist to deal with intermittency: storage of electricity in batteries, via hydropower, international connectivity, and demand-side management. Also: use of non-intermittent renewable energy options: e.g. biomass or geothermal energy. And: use of so-called solar / renewable fuels, but can they become competitive?

6 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY REF: reference scenario GEO: enhanced cost reduction REF projection in line with IEA Geothermal Energy Roadmap. Enhanced Geothermal Systems become prominent, especially when their costs reduce thanks to learning phenomena. Source: TIAM-ECN Global geothermal electricity generation (results obtained with TIAM-ECN model).

7 RECYCLING CO2 Source: Detz et al.

8 COMPETITIVITY OF SOLAR FUELS Learning-by-doing will strongly reduce the costs of solar fuel production. Assuming learning curves for key components, we conclude that competitive break-even can be reached in about 20 years. Source: Detz et al.

9 THE ROLE OF FINANCE Learning-by-doing, economies-of-scale, and automation will continue to play a dominant role in cost reductions for all new technologies. An under-studied mechanism for cost reductions, which now starts receiving lots of attention, is finance. What are the impacts of e.g. a 5% reduction in the cost of capital (WACC) for renewables, e.g. as a result of competitive procurements? What are the impacts of e.g. a 5% increase in the cost of capital (WACC) for fossil-based power generation, e.g. as a result of divestments?

10 FINANCE AND EUROPE S ENERGY SYSTEM Answer: substantial changes to the power mix! Scenario A: base case, with failing climate policy Scenario B: the WACC for renewables 5% down Scenario C: the WACC for fossil fuels 5% up Scenario D: a combination of both effects nuclear REN 42% Renewables play a much larger role in scenarios B and D, thanks to competitive bidding. Coal becomes marginalised in scenarios C and D, as divestment gains momentum. A much larger share of renewables (excl. hydro) in scenario D (42%) than in scenario A (20%). Source: TIAM-ECN hydro gas coal

11 REST OF THE WORLD: AFRICA It is tempting to inspect the energy transition from a national perspective, but the vast majority of critical developments occur outside the Netherlands (examples abound: PV panels, hydraulic fracking, nuclear power). Africa may be the new China, and closer to home: In Africa population is likely to double between now and Economic growth is high in many African countries (5-10%). Current energy system is under-developed (100 GW for Sub-Sahara). This raises big challenges, e.g. in terms of the possible carbon footprint but also great opportunities for renewables, including for the Netherlands.

12 Coal Gas+Oil Hydro Solar Wind Coal Gas+Oil Hydro Solar Wind Coal Coal CCS Gas Hydro Solar Wind Coal Coal CCS Gas Gas CCS Hydro Wind Biomass Biomass CCS Solar Average annual new capacity [GW/yr] CAPACITY ADDITIONS History EU / Latin America / Africa Future Africa s s Average EU Average LAM Average Africa Model results Africa Source: TIAM-ECN Electric power capacity additions: past for Africa, EU and Latin America, and prospects for Africa under a Paris Agreement 2ºC scenario.

13 CLIMATE CHANGE: FINAL REMARK We have to manage the unavoidable, and avoid the unmanageable John P. Holdren, IEW 2017, University of Maryland At ECN-TNO Energy Transition Studies we aim at precisely that: Changing our energy system so as to achieve net zero-co2 emissions by mid-century to avoid unmanageable climate change.

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