Sustainable Energy. Choosing Among Options. Second Edition

Transcription

1 Sustainable Energy Choosing Among Options Second Edition Jefferson W. Tester, Elisabeth M. Drake, Michael J. Driscoll, Michael W. Golay, and William A. Peters The MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England

2 Preface to the First Edition xix Acknowledgments from the First Edition xxiii Preface to the Second Edition xxvii Acknowledgments for the Second Edition xxix 1 Sustainable Energy: The Engine of Sustainable Development Sustainable Energy: The Engine of Sustainable Development The Energy Portfolio Denning Energy: Scientific and Engineering Foundations Aspects of Energy Production and Consumption National and Global Patterns of Energy Supply and Utilization Environmental Effects of Energy: Gaining Understanding Confronting the Energy-Prosperity-Environmental Dilemma: Sustainability and Alternative Proposals Mathematical Representations of Sustainability The Rest of This Book 46 Problems 47 References 48 2 Estimation and Evaluation of Energy Resources 51 \ 2.1 Units of Measurement: Energy and Power Comparison of Different Forms of Energy The Energy Life Cycle Estimation and Valuation of Fossil Mineral Fuels, Especially Petroleum Asking the right questions and avoiding the unanswerable ones Perspectives from mineral geology Two interpretations of hydrocarbon fuel economics Categories of reserves Forecasting mineral fuel prices and supplies Geopolitical factors and energy supply "crises" 87

3 vi 2.5 Estimation and Valuation of Nuclear Fuel Resources Estimation and Valuation of Renewable Energy Resources Introduction and historical notes Renewable energy resource assessment Environmental impacts Technology development and deployment The importance of storage Connecting renewables to hydrogen The future of renewable energy Additional resources Lessons for Sustainable Development Summary and Conclusions 101 Problems 102 References Technical Performance: Allowability, Efficiency, Production Rates The Relation of Technical Performance to Sustainability An Introduction to Methods of Thermodynamic Analysis Allowability, efficiency, and the Second Law More about entropy Analysis of ideal (Carnot) heat engines Analysis of real-world (irreversible) heat engines The Importance of Rate Processes in Energy Conversion Chemical Rate Processes The Physical Transport of Heat Foundations for quantitative analysis Thermal conduction Convective heat transfer Radiative heat transmission Heat transfer by tandem mechanisms Energy Requirements for Gas Separation Processes Use and Abuse of Time Scales Energy Resources and Energy Conversion: Fertile Common Ground 155 Problems 156 References Local, Regional, and Global Environmental Effects of Energy How Energy Systems Interact with the Environment Known and potential environmental threats Origin of harmful agents Length and time scales for environmental impacts Adverse Environmental Effects over Local and Regional Length Scales Ambient air pollution 173

4 vii Adulteration of soil, water, and indoor air Transport and transformation of air, ground, and water contamination Global Climate Change: Environmental Consequences over Planetary Length Scales Introduction Basic science of the greenhouse effect Energy and the greenhouse effect Greenhouse consequences: Consensus, unknowns, misconceptions Technological and policy response strategies: Evolutionary and revolutionary Attribution of Environmental Damage to Energy Utilization Diagnosing receptor jeopardy and injury Source identification Risk and uncertainty Simulation modeling to estimate environmental externality costs Methods of Environmental Protection Energy and the environment as an ensemble of coupled complex systems Earth system ecology as a working paradigm Public policy instruments Technological remedies Environmental Benefits of Energy Pollution prevention and environmental restoration Social and economic foundations for environmental stewardship Implications for Sustainable Energy Environmental footprints as sustainability metrics The unusual challenge of global climate change 234 Appendix: Lessons from SO 2 Emissions Trading 235 Problems 239 References Project Economic Evaluation Introduction Time Value of Money Mechanics Basic aspects 252* Application to a typical cash-flow scenario Derivation of relations Pitfalls, errors, and ambiguities Current- versus Constant-Dollar Comparisons Simple Payback Economy of Scale and Learning Curve Allowing for Uncertainty Overview Analytic uncertainty propagation 271

5 viii The Monte Carlo method Decision tree method Accounting for Externalities Energy Accounting Modeling beyond the Project Level Summary 283 Appendix: Derivation of Relations for Levelized Cost 285 Problems 286 References 290 Websites of Interest 292. _- 6 Energy Systems and Sustainability Metrics Introduction and Historical Notes Energy from a Systems Perspective Systems Analysis Approaches Life-cycle analysis Simulation models Risk-based models Measures of Sustainability General indicators of sustainability Categories of indicators Drivers of Societal Change Some General Principles of Sustainable Development 325 Problems 328 References 329 Websites of Interest Energy, Water, and Land Use Linkages between Energy, Water, and Land Use Major Systems, Interactions, and Trends Major Planetary Cycles Water cycle Carbon cycle Nitrogen cycle Climate cycles Overview of Land-Use Issues Land-use patterns Human development Agriculture and forestry Monitoring land-use changes Overview of Ocean-Use Issues Physical characteristics of the oceans Food chains 363

6 ix 75.3 Fisheries and aquaculture Monitoring ocean changes Implications for Sustainable Energy 366 Problems 368 References 369 Websites of Interest Fossil Fuels and Fossil Energy Introduction Definition and types of fossil fuels Historical and current contributions of fossil fuels to human progress Sustainability: Challenges and opportunities The Fossil-Fuel Resource Base How long will fossil fuels last? "Unconventional" naturally occurring fossil fuels Fossil resources and sustainability Harvesting Energy and Energy Products from Fossil Fuels Exploration, discovery, and extraction of fuels Fuel storage and transportation Fuel conversion Fuel combustion Direct generation of electricity: Fuel cells Manufacture of chemicals and other products Environmental Impacts Pollutant sources and remedies: The fuel itself Pollutant sources and remedies: Combustion pathologies Pollutant sources and remedies: Carbon management Geopolitical and Sociological Factors Globalization of fossil energy sources Equitable access, revenue scaffolds, American Graffiti Economics of Fossil Energy Some Principles for Evaluating Fossil and Other Energy Technology Options Emerging Technologies Conclusion: Why Are Fossil Fuels Important to Sustainable Energy? 442 Problems 443 References Nuclear Power Nuclear History Physics Nuclear Reactors Burning and Breeding Nuclear Power Economics 455

7 9.6 Nuclear Power Plant Accidents Reactor Safety Nuclear Reactor Technologies Light-water reactors (LWR) RBMK reactors Heavy-water-cooled technologies Gas-cooled reactor technologies Liquid-metal reactor technologies Actinide Burning Advanced Reactors 481 _._ Nuclear Power Fuel Resources Fuel Cycle Uranium mining Uranium milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel fabrication Spent fuel Reprocessing High-level wastes (HLW) disposal Fusion Energy Introduction Why is fusion more difficult than fission? Magnetic fusion energy Inertial fusion energy Prospects for the future Future Prospects for Nuclear Power 499 Problems 500 References 500 Additional Resources Biomass Energy Characterizing the Biomass Resource Defining biomass Renewability indices and biomass resources Biomass Relevance to Energy Production Utilization options Advantages and disadvantages More on resources Chemical and Physical Properties Relevant to Energy Production Biofuels Production: Policy Incentives Thermal Conversion of Biomass 521

8 xi Biomass to electricity Biomass to fuels Bioconversion Introduction Biogas Fermentation ethanol from corn and cellulosic biomass Synfuels from biomass gasification Environmental Issues Economics Research and Development Opportunities Disruptive Technology Summary 540 Problems 540 References 541 Websites of Interest Geothermal Energy Characterization of Geothermal Resource Types Definition in general Natural hydrothermal systems Geopressured systems Hot dry rock (enhanced geothermal systems) Magma Ultra-low-grade systems Markets for geothermal energy Geothermal Resource Size and Distribution Overall framework and terminology Quality issues Resource base and reserve estimates Practical Operation and Equipment for Recovering Energy Drilling and field development Reservoir fluid production Nonelectric, direct-heat utilization Electric power generation Equipment Power-cycle performance Sustainability Attributes Reservoir lifetime issues Environmental impacts Dispatchable heat and power delivery Suitability for developing countries Potential for CO 2 reduction and pollution prevention 587

9 xii 11.5 Status of Geothermal Technology Today Hydrothermal Advanced systems Competing in Today's Energy Markets Research and Development Advances Needed Potential for the Long Term 609 Problems 610 References 612 Websites of Interest Hydropower Overview of Hydropower Hydropower Resource Assessment Basic Energy Conversion Principles Conversion Equipment and Civil Engineering Operations Civil engineering aspects of dam construction and waterway management Turbines as energy converters Sustainability Attributes Status of Hydropower Technology Today Economic issues Potential for growth Advanced technology needs 638 Problems 640 References 641 Websites of Interest Solar Energy General Characteristics of Solar Energy Resource Assessment Passive and Active Solar Thermal Energy for Buildings Motivation and general issues Passive systems Active systems Economic and policy issues Solar Thermal Electric Systems: Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Fundamentals and options Power tower: Central receiver systems Parabolic troughs Dish-engine systems Current status and future potential of CSP Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Systems Solid-state physical chemistry fundamentals Performance limits and design options 680

10 xiii Silica-based systems (crystalline and amorphous) Copper indium diselenide (CIS) Cadmium telluride (CdTe) Current status and future potential of PV Sustainability Attributes Summary and Prognosis 691 Problems 692 References 694 Websites of Interest Ocean Wave, Tide, Current, and Thermal Energy Conversion Introduction Energy from the Tides and Currents Impoundment-type tidal Current-powered systems, tidal and otherwise Energy from the Waves: Overview Energy from Temperature Differences Overview Performance limits OTEC technology Economic Prospects Environmental and Sustainability Considerations The Ocean as an Externalities Sink Current Status and Future Prospects 715 Appendix: Constants and Conversion Factors 716 Problems 717 References 718 Websites of Interest Wind Energy Introduction and Historical Notes Introduction Historical notes Wind Resources Wind quality Variation of wind speed with elevation Air density Maximum wind-turbine efficiency: The Betz limit Wind Machinery and Generating Systems Overview Rotor blade assembly Tower Nacelle components 740

11 xiv Balance-of-station subsystems System design challenges Wind-Turbine Rating Wind-Power Economics Measures of Sustainability Net energy analysis Cost of externalities Environmental impact of wind power Current Status and Future Prospects 748 Appendix: Conversion Factors Relevant to Wind Power 751 Problems 752 References 754 Websites of Interest Energy Carriers: Electric Power, Hydrogen Fuel, Other? Introduction and Historical Perspectives Growth of the electric generation industry Life-cycle tracking of electric energy uses Overall efficiency of primary energy usage Electricity as an Energy Carrier Electric energy Centralized energy generation Electric power generation Environmental effects of electricity production Siting requirements for power plants Electricity economics Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier Hydrogen production Hydrogen safety Hydrogen storage and distribution Future opportunities Sustainability Issues 792 Problems 796 References 797 Websites of Interest Energy Management: Storage, Transportation, and Distribution Overview of Energy Management Systems' Connected Efficiencies and Energy Chains Modes of Energy Storage General characteristics Energy storage technologies 812

12 xv 174 Energy Transmission General characteristics of energy transmission systems Oil transport Natural gas transport Coal transport Electric power transmission Energy Distribution Systems General characteristics of central versus distributed systems Combined heat and power opportunities Applications to renewable energy systems and hybrids Ways of Organizing the Electric Economy Demand-side management (DSM) and distributed generation Electricity transmission and distribution and economic deregulation An example of electric industry planning using multiattribute assessment tools The need for more dynamic utilization of transmission and distribution capacity Energy Market Impacts on Electricity Generation Options Sustainability Attributes Improved resource utilization Environmental, safety, and health concerns Economic and operational attributes Opportunities for Advancement of Sustainable Energy Infrastructures 856 Problems 857 References 860 Websites of Interest Transportation Services Introduction and Historical Perspectives Elements of the Transportation System Transportation Fuels and the Fuel Cycle Personal Vehicles Historical perspectives Looking forward * Life-Cycle Comparison of Vehicle Alternatives for Passenger Road Transport Freight Vehicles Public Transit, Interurban, and Intercontinental Transport Motorization Trends Sustainability Issues 901 Problems 903 References 903 Websites of Interest 905

13 xvi 19 Industrial Energy Usage Introduction and Historical Perspectives Life-Cycle Analysis and Design for Sustainability Metals Industries Cement and Lime Industries Chemical Industries Forest Products and Agriculture Waste Management Industries Sustainability Issues 921 Problems 925 References 925 Websites of Interest Commercial and Residential Buildings Introduction and Historical Perspectives Life-Cycle Analysis Residential Buildings Design Efficiency Commercial Buildings Design Efficiency Indoor Air Quality Sustainability Issues 948 Problems 950 References 950 Websites of Interest Synergistic Complex Systems Introduction and Historical Notes The Complex Systems View Expert panels > Partial informational models Decision analysis techniques Negotiation How are decisions really made? Some Case Studies Beyond the Limits (Meadows, Meadows, and Randers, 1992) Which World? (Hammond, 1998) MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change: Integrated Global System Model C-ROADS climate policy model 979

14 xvii 21.4 Transitional Pathways The Challenge to Society 989 Problems 992 References 993 Websites of Interest Choosing among Options 997 Conversion Factors 1001 List of Acronyms Index 1011