Current Progress and Future Outlook

Transcription

1 Current Progress and Future Outlook UN ECE Group of Experts on Gas Francisco de la Flor May Geneva

2 Recent Highlights Ongoing progress across task forces: A: Best practice guidance in reducing gas leaks along the gas value chain B: Best practice guidance on the role of natural gas in increasing the uptake of renewable energy C: Best practice guidance for liquefied natural gas D: Removing barriers to the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel Cross-cutting nature of gas in the energy system is becoming evident Ongoing collaboration exist across Expert Groups Significant support from Natural Gas stakeholder community Over 130 people attended the 2 nd session of the GEG MoU between the International Gas Union (IGU) and the on April 30, 2015 On-going interest with regional stakeholders such as US EPA, IEA, and others COP 21 Early stages of developing input into events in Paris by GEG and secretariat

3 Current challenges and future outlook region constituency enables significant added value from GEG Large share of global gas supply and demand Opportunities to improve markets and technology Challenges: Getting the messages of the GEG across at COP21 Ambitious work plan modest resources Recommendation to Committee: Continue with the ongoing work and try to involve the active participation of experts Motivate the active participation of experts by having a specific ultimate goal, that is presenting the input at COP 21

4 B Preliminary messages to be conveyed at COP 21 Why natural gas? Cleanest fossil fuel Can deliver substantial carbon emission reductions Key player in the long term. Role of NG in the uptake of RES flexible balancing and capacity backup to RES strongest enabler of RES D Natural gas as transportation fuel NG as Road transport fuel: proven technology with environmental advantages (25% less CO2, 60% less NOx) LNG in maritime transport : area with potential for fuel and emission cost savings 4

5 Preliminary messages to be conveyed at COP 21 C LNG LNG is a global market with increasing traded volumes. LNG allows natural gas to arrive to new areas where it can replace coal and oil. but A Gas Leakage Countries = Different levels of gas leaks Reducing leaks has a positive impact on the environment Opportunities to reduce gas leaks 5

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7 Current Topics of focus by the GEG TF A: Best practice guidance in reducing gas leaks along the gas value chain Early stage investigational work has been completed on the key aspects Secretariat has recently approached other key players (US EPA and IEA) to collaborate. Further efforts in the 2nd quarter TF B: Best practice guidance on the role of natural gas in increasing the uptake of renewable energy Effort has begun in co-ordination with the Group of Experts on Renewable Energy Focus will be on exploring alliances and co-existence of renewable energy and gas players Continued focus on applying learnings specifically to ECE countries. TF C: Best practice guidance for liquefied natural gas First draft of "Comprehensive Assessment of Trends in LNG completed TF D: Removing barriers to the use of natural gas as a transportation fuel TF meeting held in Brussels, where the division of labour among the TF members was defined.

8 Task Force A: Reducing Gas leaks Different countries = Different levels of gas leaks In many countries there are opportunities to reduce gas leaks Reducing leaks has a positive impact on the environment Benchmarking results + Best Practice Guidance under development Good Progress so far - first deliverable to be released in June 2015! 8

9 Task Force B: Gas and VRES Renewable Energy Production is proliferating in many countries around the world due to several reasons. Wind and Solar are Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES) Integration of increasing amounts of VRES brings two problems for the energy system (abundancy and scarcity) which puts the energy networks under stress both on the short and long term. These issues are solved via four options: Interconnections Energy Storage Flexible Generation Capacity Curtailment and Demand Side Response Final Target: managing increasing levels of variability and uncertainty 9 while maintaining performance and keeping costs down.

10 Task Force B Gas and VRES Initial Analysis shown that: Higher levels of VRES are certainly expected in the region. Large amount of VRES = higher uncertainty = more pronounced changes Policy, planning and regulatory interventions should be designed to minimise the overall system costs. Large shares of VRES can be integrated cost-effectively, but adding VRES rapidly without adapting the energy system leads to high integration costs. Value of flexibility should be recognised. Integration and Interaction of Electricity, Gas and ICT is growing quickly. Close Coordination on planning, infrastructure investments and operating rules is essential to achieve security of supply and resilience in both markets. 10

11 Task Force B Gas and VRES NATURAL GAS: A NATURAL FACILITATOR FOR VRES INTEGRATION Gas-fired Generation technologies offer the most flexible and adaptable generation capacity. Capability of making the existing gas-fired units even more flexible. From Economical Point of view, new fast CCGTs have the lowest investment costs, and the highest efficiency compared to other fossil fuels. Adequate Gas and Electricity Interconnections are paramount to take the most advantage of flexibility sources in neighboring countries = optimisation of European energy market = lower integration costs. Long-term strategic planning between VRES and Gas very much beneficial. Focus on RD&D: Biogas/Biomethane, Power-to-Gas and CCS adding up more reasons to fixe a long-term partnership between VRE and Gas. Need to Improve ETS, and analyse impact of lower average utilisation of gas grids. 11

12 Task Force B: Gas and VRES Natural Gas: Turning the energy challengein to a competitive advantage Gas enables higher uptake of VRES Energy System Transformation 12

13 Task Force B: Gas and VRES 20 March 2015 Solar Eclipse Germany lost 17 GW of PV in less than 2 hours. (equivalent to >40 medium size conventional plants) After Eclipse 25 GW of solar energy entered the system x3 times quicker than normal. Critial situation was succesfully managed through Hydro and Gas! By 2030, when Germany plans to have 66 GW of solar capacity, a clear sunrise will then boost output as steeply as the end of the eclipse. In the future energy system Gas and VRES will have to tango. Without Gas, tango becomes a dance macabre. 13

14 Task Force C: LNG WORLD GAS CONSUMPTION >3347 bcm WORLD PIPELINE GAS TRADE >710 bcm WORLD LNG >301 bcm TRADE LNG market has evolved from initial regional markets to a truly global market Sources: BP, GIIGNL and BG LNG currently represents around 10% of total world gas consumption, and almost 50% of global trade gas. 14

15 Task Force C: LNG Global LNG Traded Volumes (bcm) Global LNG trade increased by 52% from 2006 (198 bcm) to 2014 (301 bcm). Asian region has experienced high prices during last years, resulting in higher LNG imports. Price differentials between Asia and Europe disappearing. Significant new liquefaction capacity to enter the market. Global gas price development in key regions, Apr 2009 Feb LNG Import Evolution by Region (bcm) Middle East Americas Europe Asia 15

16 Task Force C: LNG LNG is a global market with increasing traded volumes. LNG allows natural gas to arrive to new areas where it can replace coal and oil. Low regional price differential together with new LNG liquefaction projects to come on stream soon = LNG flows into the area to grow again. LNG offers great advantages to increase competition, security of supply and fight against climate change. Policies should aim to allow competitive free flow of LNG towards those areas where it is valued the most. Each gas consuming country should be able to access LNG, if wish to do so, either directly or through interconnections. 16

17 Task Force D: Natural gas as transportation fuel NGVA to provide slides Background Natural gas and bio-methane represent the easiest, most practical, and most realistic way to reduce pollution coming from transportation. Deliverables A useful summarized guideline document aimed at decision makers in national authorities and Industry stakeholders contributing to the increased use of LNG and CNG in Transports Recommendations on Removing Barriers to the Use of Natural Gas as a Transportation Fuel. 17

18 Task Force D: Natural gas as transportation fuel NGVA to provide slides Fuel Consumption of Different vehicles. Equivalences Consumption of GNC/GNL MW.h/year Ferry uses as much fuel as 65 small boats or 130 fishing boats or buses or taxis or private cars 18

19 Task Force D: Natural gas as transportation fuel NGVA to provide slides Some Existing barriers Oil Lobby Poor Incentives Differing Standards Other Human Factor Misleading Measuring Units Financial Lack of Awareness Safety Issues High Incremental NGV Cost Land Issues Discouraging Price Differential Limited Access to Pipeline Legal (Regulatory) Underdeveloped Filling Infrastructure Limited LNG Availability Administrative Demotivating Taxes 19

20 Natural Gas Fueling the Future Natural Gas for Growth, Security of Supply and a Clean Energy Future Thanks to its high efficiency, ample supplies, and ability to replace coal in power plants, Gas is the best assets to make our energy future clean. Gas-fired Power Plants provide a flexible low-carbon base-load, being the ideal partner for renewables as they balance out the variability of some renewable sources. Natural gas is the ideal grid balancing resource as it is easy to store, can be transported efficiently and can respond swiftly to sharp load and demand changes on the power grid. The globalisation of the LNG markets increases security of supply, facilitates higher penetration of natural gas in different markets, and allows for the replacement of oil/coal by Gas. It is advisable to continue optmizing the entire gas value chain, reducing even more the gas leakage in those countries where is needed. 20

21 Group of Experts on Gas Thank you for your attention 21