IPCC scientists warn of climate change disaster if changes not made

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1 IPCC scientists warn of climate change disaster if changes not made By Chris Mooney, Brady Dennis, The Washington Post on Word Count 989 Level 1240L Empty beach chairs rest on the sand as oil washes ashore in Alabama after the Deepwater Horizon Disaster in June Photo by: Kari Goodnough/Bloomberg A report by the top scientific body on climate change just delivered a dire warning about global warming. Global emissions show few signs of slowing. This year, the United States rolled back measures that were introduced under President Barack Obama to reduce the country's carbon footprint. The United States is the world's second largest emitter of carbon dioxide. The industrial revolution, which began in the 1800s, led to the use of fossil fuels being spread all over the globe. Scientists say the continued use of fossil fuels has led to rising global temperatures. This article is available at 5 reading levels at 1

2 Under the Paris Climate Agreement, countries around the world agreed to do their part in keeping global temperatures from rising. A realistic goal was to limit the rise in global temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This would be relative to the average temperature before industry began to impact global temperatures. The agreement also sets an ideal goal of limiting the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. "Rapid And Far-Reaching" Transformation Avoiding the 2.7 F rise would require a "rapid and far-reaching" transformation of human civilization. "There is no documented historic precedent" for the changes required to reach 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, wrote the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The report was requested as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement on October 14. This article is available at 5 reading levels at 2

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4 The report affirms that reaching 2.7 F over pre-industrial levels is still possible. If emissions stopped today, the planet would not reach that temperature. It is also likely to inspire stronger climate action by focusing on 2.7 F as a target instead of 3.6 F. Still, the transformation raises questions about its feasibility. The report says the world's annual carbon dioxide emissions would have to be on a steep downward path by 2030 to either hold the globe below 1.5 degrees Celsius, or allow a brief "overshoot." Currently, the emissions amount to more than 40 billion tons per year. Overall reductions in emissions in the next decade would probably need to be more than 1 billion tons per year. By 2050, the report calls for a total or near-total phaseout of the burning of coal. "Net Zero Must Be The New Global Mantra" Erik Solheim, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said to stop emissions entirely by 2050 or find some way of removing carbon dioxide "means net zero must be the new global mantra." Land used to produce food would have to be converted to growing trees to process carbon dioxide and crops for energy use. The world is projected to have more than 2 billion more people by "Such large transitions pose profound challenges for sustainable management of the various demands on land for human settlements, food, livestock feed, fiber, bioenergy, carbon storage, biodiversity and other ecosystem services," the report states. The document represented the work of nearly 100 scientists and a massive peer review. The final "summary for policymakers" was agreed to by scientists and government officials. Woefully Off Target The report says the world will need to develop "negative emissions" programs to remove carbon dioxide. The basic technologies exist but have not caught on. The world is woefully off target. The Paris climate agreement pledges would still lead to a rise of around 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit of warming by the end of the century. A Trump administration report assumes about 4 degrees Celsius increase or 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 if the world takes no action. The IPCC tends to be conservative in its conclusions. It is driven by a consensus-finding process. The group held back from taking a specific stand on the feasibility of meeting the goal they determined. This article is available at 5 reading levels at 4

5 "If you're expecting IPCC to jump up and down and wave red flags, you're going to be disappointed," said Phil Duffy. He is the president of Woods Hole Research Center. Some Researchers Are Skeptical Some researchers, including Duffy, are skeptical of the scenarios that the IPCC presents that hold warming to 2.7 F. "Even if it is technically possible, without aligning the technical, political and social aspects of feasibility, it is not going to happen," added Glen Peters, research director of the Center for International Climate Research in Oslo. The IPCC said emissions must remain at current levels for 10 to 14 years in order to avoid 2.7 F. The report says that a warming of 2.7 Fahrenheit would be very damaging. A 3.6-degree rise could approach intolerable. Risks of extreme heat and weather events also rise as temperatures do. To avoid that, in barely more than 10 years, electricity from renewable sources would have to jump from the current 24 percent to more like 50 or 60 percent. Coal and gas plants would need to be equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS) that bury carbon dioxide. By 2050, most coal plants would shut down. Cars and other transportation would need to be mostly electrified. Right now, just 4 percent of road transportation is powered by renewable fuels. Controversy Over Coal The World Coal Association challenged the report's statements on the need to jettison coal. The group said it believes any "credible pathway to meeting" the 2.7-degree Fahrenheit scenario "must focus on emissions rather than fuel." That's an approach embraced by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Under President Donald Trump, the EPA has rolled back regulations on the coal industry. The EPA's acting administrator, Andrew Wheeler, said the United States will "continue to remain engaged in the U.N.'s effort," but Trump has said he intends to withdraw from the Paris climate accord as soon as legally possible. Wheeler said the agency would allow the coal industry "to continue to innovate on clean coal technologies, and those technologies will be exported to other countries." This article is available at 5 reading levels at 5

6 Quiz 1 What are the reasons why some scientists are skeptical about the feasibility of avoiding the 2.7 Fahrenheit rise in global temperature? In a short amount of time, the world would need to stop using electricity, cut back on coal burning and locate fossil fuels that are safer for the environment. In a short amount of time, the world would need to shift to using "negative emissions" programs, renewable energy sources and electrified transportation. In a short amount of time, the world would need to shift to building more sophisticated gas plants, inventing clean coal technologies and canceling the Paris Climate Agreement. In a short amount of time, the world would need to cut demand for food and bioenergy, reduce the world population and eliminate the need for road transportation. 2 Why did the authors introduce the IPCC before the World Coal Association? to logically discuss the details of a problem before exploring the agreed-upon solution to help the reader understand how the United Nations is organized into different departments to help explain why and how the World Coal Association was formed to provide context for what the World Coal Association disagrees with 3 Which of the following topics is addressed in Image 2, but NOT in the article? the idea that China is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide the idea that the use of fossil fuels results in carbon dioxide emissions the idea that changes in land use affect carbon dioxide emissions the idea that the U.S. is the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide This article is available at 5 reading levels at 6

7 4 Examine Image 2 and read the sentence from the article. Global emissions show few signs of slowing. This year the United States rolled back measures to reduce the country's carbon footprint introduced under President Barack Obama. Based on the above information, which of the following predictions is MOST reasonable? The U.S. will cut its carbon dioxide emissions this year to match that of Canada. The U.S. will exceed billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions this year. The U.S. will cut its carbon dioxide emissions in half this year. The U.S. will exceed 5.31 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions this year. This article is available at 5 reading levels at 7

8 Answer Key 1 What are the reasons why some scientists are skeptical about the feasibility of avoiding the 2.7 Fahrenheit rise in global temperature? In a short amount of time, the world would need to stop using electricity, cut back on coal burning and locate fossil fuels that are safer for the environment. In a short amount of time, the world would need to shift to using "negative emissions" programs, renewable energy sources and electrified transportation. In a short amount of time, the world would need to shift to building more sophisticated gas plants, inventing clean coal technologies and canceling the Paris Climate Agreement. In a short amount of time, the world would need to cut demand for food and bioenergy, reduce the world population and eliminate the need for road transportation. 2 Why did the authors introduce the IPCC before the World Coal Association? to logically discuss the details of a problem before exploring the agreed-upon solution to help the reader understand how the United Nations is organized into different departments to help explain why and how the World Coal Association was formed to provide context for what the World Coal Association disagrees with 3 Which of the following topics is addressed in Image 2, but NOT in the article? the idea that China is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide the idea that the use of fossil fuels results in carbon dioxide emissions the idea that changes in land use affect carbon dioxide emissions the idea that the U.S. is the second largest emitter of carbon dioxide This article is available at 5 reading levels at 8

9 4 Examine Image 2 and read the sentence from the article. Global emissions show few signs of slowing. This year the United States rolled back measures to reduce the country's carbon footprint introduced under President Barack Obama. Based on the above information, which of the following predictions is MOST reasonable? The U.S. will cut its carbon dioxide emissions this year to match that of Canada. The U.S. will exceed billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions this year. The U.S. will cut its carbon dioxide emissions in half this year. The U.S. will exceed 5.31 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions this year. This article is available at 5 reading levels at 9